Brock Purdy - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Purdy ranked sixth among QBs in total fantasy points and eighth in points per game through Week 17 last year.

He did it via insane passing efficiency, which makes him a slightly scary bet this season. But Purdy returns all his key weapons, added first-round WR Ricky Pearsall, and is back in a Kyle Shanahan offense that has routinely produced super-efficient passing games.

Purdy’s lack of rushing caps his fantasy ceiling. But he’s a fine bet in low-end QB1 or high-end QB2 range.

What We Learned Last Year

• Purdy ranked sixth among QBs in total fantasy points and eighth in points per game through Week 17 last year. (He sat out a meaningless regular-season finale.)
• Purdy finished fifth in the league with 4,280 passing yards and third with 31 passing scores.
• He did that despite the 49ers ranking 30th in pass rate and dead last in pass attempts.
• Purdy ranked 20th among QBs in pass attempts.
• He also ranked 20th among QBs in expected fantasy points from Week 1 through 17.
• Purdy produced via insane efficiency. Among 29 qualifying QBs, he ranked:
  • 3rd in completion rate
  • 1st in yards per attempt
  • 1st in TD rate
• Purdy’s 9.6 yards per attempt was the second-best mark among 669 QB seasons of 300+ pass attempts since 2000 (behind only Kurt Warner’s 9.9 in 2000).
• His 7.0% TD rate was the 23rd-best mark among those 669 QB seasons.
• Purdy posted a +2.5 completion rate over expected, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. That ranked seventh among 45 qualifying QBs.
• He ranked eighth among those 45 QBs in Pro Football Focus passing grade.

What to Expect in 2024

• Purdy returns to a nearly identical situation this season.
  • Kyle Shanahan is back for his eighth season as 49ers HC.
  • WRs Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Jauan Jennings, TE George Kittle, and RB Christian McCaffrey return.
  • The biggest change to San Francisco’s offense is the addition of first-round rookie WR Ricky Pearsall.
• Purdy is a near lock for decreased efficiency in 2024. The question is how big the drop will be.
  • As a 2022 rookie, Purdy posted a 67.1% completion rate, 8.1 yards per attempt, and a 7.6% TD rate.
  • He averaged 0.66 fantasy points per dropback in 2022 vs. 0.71 in 2023 – a 7.6% increase.
  • If Purdy had averaged 0.66 points per dropback last year, he still would have finished 10th among QBs in fantasy points.
  • The 49ers have ranked top 14 in yards per pass attempt in all seven seasons under Shanahan. They’ve finished top four in four of the last five years.
• Any loss in efficiency could be offset by more pass attempts.
  • The 49ers’ 28.9 pass attempts per game last year were the fewest in the Shanahan era. San Francisco averaged 32.8 passes per game in Shanny’s first six seasons.
  • Purdy’s volume was hurt in part last year by the 49ers playing with so many leads. While they ranked 30th in pass rate, they ranked 23rd in pass rate in neutral game situations and 17th in pass rate over expected. If the Niners aren’t quite as good this season, it should lead to more pass attempts.
  • Purdy’s volume was also hurt by the 49ers ranking 27th with 60.2 offensive plays per game. That was the lowest mark in the Shanahan era, although it’s worth noting that San Francisco ranked 32nd in both offensive pace and situation-neutral pace last year. We’re projecting more plays this season, but not significantly more.