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Mac Jones - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Mac Jones
NE

QB NE

#34 Quarterback

294 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 14
Experience: 0 Yr(s)
Age: 23
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 214
40 Time: 4.83

Weekly Outlook

Week 21 Projections

This player does not have a weekly prediction

Rest Of Way Outlook

Week 13
It was a historic night for Jones on Monday Night Football against the Bills. He threw the fewest passes in Patriots’ history, only throwing the ball 3 times on the night. The Patriots ran the ball 46 times, 94% of their total plays. Jones didn’t throw his first pass until the clock was under 2 minutes left in the 1st quarter. He finished 2/3 for 19 yards on the night. He added 5 yards on back-to-back sneaks in the 3rd quarter, but gave that all that back on 2 game-ending kneels that lost 4 yards apiece.

Jones is having a stellar rookie season, completing over 70% of his passes and sporting a 2-1 TD to INT ratio. He sits just 23rd in our rest-of-the-way QB rankings, though, and gets the 2nd-toughest remaining schedule for QB scoring.
Week 12
Jones was absolutely dominant in his Week 12 performance vs. the Titans, throwing for a season high 310 yards and 2 TDs. Jones was surgical, completing 72% of his passes while still throwing for 9.7 yards per attempt. The 9.7 YPA led all passers in Week 12. Jones didn’t face much pressure from the Titans, but when he did, he was still on point. According to PFF, Jones was 5 of 7 for 75 yards and a score while facing pressure. With the Patriots D dominating and a solid 1 to 2 punch on the ground, Jones isn’t asked to do much. However, it is good to know he has a 300-yard and multiple TD performance in his range of outcomes.
This week the Patriots will have their toughest test all season vs. the Bills. The silver lining for the Patriots pass game is the Bills just lost top CB Tre’Davious White for the season. This could open up more opportunities for the Patriots passing attack on the outside. Even with the injury to White, Jones is only a 2-QB play this week vs. Buffalo.
Week 11
Jones was awesome for the Patriots on Thursday night, completing 85% of his passes and averaging 8.0 yards per attempt.

He wasn’t awesome for fantasy owners, though. Strong performances by New England’s defense and running game meant Jones had to attempt just 26 passes. He finished with 207 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT.

That’s been the story of Jones’ rookie season: strong real-life play but underwhelming fantasy production. He’s finished better than 18th among QBs in fantasy points in just 2 of 11 games.

There’s no reason for the Patriots to go away from the game plan that’s gotten them to 7-4. Perhaps Jones is forced to throw it more in 2 remaining matchups vs. a strong Bills offense. But Buffalo’s defense will make him a shy-away in those spots. He’s only an option in 2-QB and Superflex leagues.
Week 10
From an NFL standpoint, Jones was masterful, as he picked apart the Browns despite throwing just 23 passes. In a game the Patriots controlled throughout, they leaned on their rushing attack. But for one of the first times this season, Jones was attacking downfield through the air. The results were fantastic, as he had a few connections beyond 20 yards. Of his 3 TD passes, he continued to focus on Hunter Henry in the red zone, as the duo combined for 2 scores. They’ve accounted for scores in 6 of the last 7 games.

Although he’s been a very good NFL QB, he’ll likely be a low-ceiling fantasy option for the duration of his rookie season. As part of a conservative offense, he came into this game having thrown just 10 TD passes in 9 games while being held to fewer than 235 yards in 4 of his last 5 games. However, he has 3 games in which he’s thrown 2 TD passes, and he does have 4 remaining games against defenses in the bottom 10 in terms of fantasy points allowed to QBs, so he could be a streaming option with more appeal in leagues that start 2 QBs.
Week 9
With the Patriots dominating this game throughout, Jones wasn’t needed to do more than the bare minimum. As a result, he threw just 18 passes. But when he was in obvious passing situations, Brian Burns and the Panthers’ pass rush was abusing the New England OTs. That led to Jones completing mostly short passes. His 2 top WRs, Jakobi Meyers and Nelson Agholor, caught just a single pass between them. Although it was a weak fantasy day for Jones, he was able to connect with Hunter Henry for a TD for the 5th time in 6 games.

Especially in 2-QB leagues, Jones is a borderline fantasy option, as he came into this game with 3 games with at least 2 TDs, but he also had 5 games where he threw 1 or fewer TDs. In addition, his yardage has been on a downward trend, as he’s been held to 231 yards or fewer in 4 of his last 5 contests. The good news is that he has a mostly easy schedule of opponents the rest of the way, but he also has 2 very tough matchups against the Bills.
Week 8
Jones isn’t much of a fantasy option, but he’s doing enough to help the Patriots win. This week he only completed 51% of his passes for 218 yards and no scores. However, Jones had zero turnovers in the game which helped the Patriots get a big victory on the road.
Moving forward, Jones has proven to be good enough to be streaming QB in good matchups. Unfortunately for fantasy managers that is not this week as he takes on a solid Panthers D that just held Matt Ryan to 146 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs. This makes Jones a tough start even in Superflex leagues for Week 9.
Week 7
In a game that the Patriots won in blowout fashion, Jones threw just 36 passes. His success came as he spread the ball around to pretty much every eligible receiver on the team. On a 300-yard day, no receiver had more than 68 yards. Aside from 4 rushing TDs by the team, Kendrick Bourne threw a TD pass, but there was still enough meat on the bone for Jones to throw TD passes to Hunter Henry and Brandon Bolden.

Over his last five games, Jones has thrown 2 TDs on 3 occasions while throwing for 1 in the other games. So although he hasn’t shown big upside, his floor is stable as a QB option in leagues that start 2 QBs. And his yardage has been solid as well: he’s posted at least 270 yards in 3 of his last 5 while not dipping below 229 yards. Otherwise, he’ll occasionally post some rushing yardage, but consider the rushing yards more of a bonus than an expectation.
Week 5
Jones was out-played by fellow rookie QB Davis Mills early in Sunday’s game vs. the Texans. His Patriots trailed 15-6 late in the 2nd quarter.

Jones led a FG drive late in the 1st half, though, and then propelled New England to a comeback win in the 2nd. That included a 13-yard TD to TE Hunter Henry to tie the game up midway through the 4th quarter.

Jones finished an efficient 23-of-30 (77%) for 231 yards (7.7 YPA), 1 TD and 1 INT. He ranked 24th among QBs in fantasy points on the week.

That’s been the story for Jones: solid in real life but a non-factor in fantasy. Expect that to continue. At this point of his career, Jones is a conservative passer who doesn’t add value with his legs.
Week 4
This was Mac’s biggest game of his young career. Battling against a tough Bucs front 7 and terrible weather, Jones was asked to throw the ball 40 times in a back-and-forth game that came down to the wire. He looked poised from start to finish and had his team in position to take the lead after the two-minute warning. This Patriots team has a shot to win every game with their defense and Mac Jones leading the way. Jones mostly was looking at underneath and intermediate routes, but he looked sharp even with a wet ball all night. He finished the night 31/40 for 275 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT. Jones is averaging 40 attempts per game and has thrown for 270+ yards in 3 of 4 games thus far. The Patriots clearly trust him to throw the ball around and he should continue to grow in this offense under McDaniels. We have him ranked at QB23 this week against Houston. Jones has a favorable schedule over the next few weeks, so this could be an opportunity to fire him up in 2QB leagues. The Patriots next three opponents include @HST, DAL, NYJ.
Week 3
Jones looked like a rookie on Sunday, throwing for a league-high 3 INTs and just 5.3 YPA. Jones struggled to complete anything downfield as he only connected on 1 of 11 passes that traveled 20 yards or more downfield. Even though it didn’t look pretty it was still encouraging to see his willingness to challenge defenses vertically. Granted in Week 3 his 9.1% completion rate and 2.5 YPA on those throws were not ideal, but softer matchups will lead to much more productive days for the rookie.
This week the Patriots take on a Buccaneers D that has allowed the 2nd most points to the QB position so far in 2021. We know Tom Brady will come out firing in this game, which should lead to a lot of volume in this matchup for Jones. This could make him an intriguing DFS play and deep league starter.
Week 2
Jones completed 22 of 30 passes for 186 yards in the Patriots' 25-6, Week 2 win over the Jets.
Jones did lose a fumble and was sacked 4 times but wasn’t asked to do much as Zach Wilson was combusting and the Patriots defense was dominating.
The Pats built an early lead and never looked back, which allowed the Patriots to employ a safe game-plan for the young QB with a lot of checkdowns to James White and company.
Jones has shown solid poise through the first two weeks of the season, but there doesn’t seem to be much upside in this run-heavy offense.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Jones arrived at Alabama the same year as Tua Tagovailoa (2017). He was redshirted and didn’t see a start until Tua went down during the 2019 season.
  • Making 4 starts that year (against Arkansas, Western Carolina, Auburn and Michigan), Jones completed 70 of 98 passes (71.4%) for 1,172 yards and 13 TDs (2 INTs).
  • He truly broke out last season with 4,500 yards and 41 TDs. He recorded a nation-best 84.2% completion rate. Accuracy to all areas of the field was a huge plus on film.
  • Jones brings very limited rushing potential. And it’s clear that his passing production was boosted by an all-star O-line and supporting cast that included DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle.
  • Jones fell to the Patriots 15th overall. He’ll enter the summer in a battle with Cam Newton for the starting job.
  • Newton struggled as a passer, showing limited arm strength and a conservative approach. He managed only 177 passing yards per game; .53 TDs per game.
  • HC Bill Belichick has announced that Newton will enter training camp as the starter. Jones will have a chance to unseat him, though.
  • Whoever wins the job figures to pilot a low-volume pass offense, albeit one with much-improved pass catchers. Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne all arrived in free agency.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

We expect Jones to start at some point this season. But his total number of games played is a mystery, as Cam Newton will likely get the first crack at the starting job.

With almost zero rushing upside and unexciting pass volume, Jones will start his career as a longshot for fantasy value.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Patriots QB Mac Jones capped off an impressive preseason by going 10 of 14 for 156 yards and 1 TD over 5 series in Sunday night's finale vs. the Giants. That came after QB Cam Newton got the start and struggled, completing just 2 of 5 passes for 10 yards and an INT on 2 series. Jones finishes the preseason with a 92.2 Pro Football Focus passing grade -- 2nd highest among 101 QBs that threw a pass. Newton finished 13th with a 78.0 grade. HC Bill Belichick declined to name a starter after the game. Newton might still get the Week 1 nod out of veteran deference. But expect to see Jones in there sooner than later. He looks ready.

View all Mac Jones Shark Bites »

ESPN's Mike Reiss says that through their 1st 2 padded practices, the Patriots' offense looks like it's "running two separate attacks" with its top 2 QBs. Cam Newton's version obviously features plenty of read-option, while rookie Mac Jones "looks like he's running the more traditional Patriots passing offense." Pat Kirwan of Sirius XM -- and a former NFL scout and front-office man -- adds: "He's more what Josh [McDaniels] wants to do, and how he's done it in the past. ... I wouldn't be surprised if by October we see [him] under center." According to Reiss, this all followed arguably Jones' best day of camp, and a pair of days in which he garnered significantly more reps than Newton. The rookie beginning to work his way past the vet -- whom Bill Belichick has called the starter -- doesn't make Jones attractive as a fantasy option. But the switch would certainly add upside to Patriots receiving options. Jones would also likely be better for RB Damien Harris' goal-line outlook.

Update: We should note here that Ben Volin of the Boston Globe writes, "Anyone watching practice can tell Newton is the clear, unequivocal starter." Volin adds that Newton leads off every drill and that many of Jones' reps come with backups, rookies and scout-team players. We'll see where this situation goes.

View all Mac Jones Shark Bites »

After watching spring practices, The Boston Globe's Ben Volin believes Patriots QB Mac Jones still has "a long way to go" to beat out QB Cam Newton for the starting job. Even with Newton sidelined the past week with his hand injury, Jones worked behind QBs Jarrett Stidham and Brian Hoyer. “There’s a lot going on in my brain,” Jones admitted. “You’re trying to see everything; sometimes you see too much or whatever, and then you see nothing. I have to figure out in this offense how I can break down the plays, what’s my job, what I have to do on this specific play and slot the plays individually. I did that obviously good in college or whatever, but this is the pros and I have to figure out how to do it here. So that’s what I’m going to do.” We'll see how much ground Jones can make up in training camp and preseason action, but bet on Newton being under center for New England come Week 1.

View all Mac Jones Shark Bites »

The Patriots sat at #15 and landed Alabama QB Mac Jones. A 1-year starter following the departure of Tua Tagovailoa, Jones went off for 4,500-41-4 last fall. His 84.2% adjusted completion rate led the nation. While Jones played with top-tier talent (Devonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, Najee Harris), his accuracy was on point at all levels of the field. Per Pro Football Focus, Jones even led the nation in deep yards (1,355). The 6’3, 217-pounder brings below average athleticism, so don’t expect much rushing production in the pros. But his profile might have him as the 2nd most pro-ready passer in this draft, behind only Trevor Lawrence. Jones will battle QB Cam Newton for the starting job this summer. Our early money is on Jones being under center come Week 1.

View all Mac Jones Shark Bites »

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