Chris Olave Fantasy Overview

A Career-Best '25

Olave set career highs with 100 catches, 1,163 yards, and 9 TDs. That placed him sixth among WRs in PPR and half-PPR points.

Olave finished with five top-12 fantasy weeks among 16 games, including four in the top 5. He ended only two weeks outside the top-36 WRs.

Olave's Targets Spike

Through Week 17, Olave ranked 10th among WRs with a 27.2% target share. That’s up from his marks in 2024 (23.6%), 2023 (23.9%) and 2022 (25.8%).

Isolate his eight-game sample with QB Tyler Shough, and the target share remains stable at 27.4%.

Olave remained the Saints’ primary intermediate and downfield weapon. His 41.7% air-yards share ranked seventh among WRs, while new HC Kellen Moore moved him inside more often with a career-high 41.9% of his routes coming from the slot.

The Saints leaned on Olave in scoring range, too. His 30.2% red-zone target share ranked fourth among all pass catchers.

He Didn't Sacrifice Efficiency

Olave posted strong efficiency markers with Shough, including:

• 13.8 yards per catch
• 2.48 yards per route run
• 67.6% catch rate

He also finished sixth in ESPN’s Open Score, which measures how well a WR separates. The only WRs ahead of him: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Puka Nacua, Garrett Wilson, and Stefon Diggs.

A Mid-Season QB Change

QB Spencer Rattler started the first eight games and racked up only 8 TDs and 6.2 yards per attempt. He averaged just 207.1 yards per game in his seven complete outings.

Olave posted one top-15 fantasy finish alongside Rattler; three in the WR17-WR24 range.

Olave Avoids a Concussion

Olave missed only one game: Week 18 with a blood clot in his lung. He was still limited in the offseason as he continued to recover.

Olave’s football career was disrupted by five documented concussions from 2020-2024. Two separate concussions from the 2024 season forced nine absences and led him to consider retirement.

Saints Add Target Competition in Round 1

The Saints spent a Round 1 pick on Arizona State WR Jordyn Tyson. When healthy, Tyson looked like a future NFL No. 1 with his physicality, route running, and body control. But he missed a substantial chunk of his college career with multiple injuries.

We’re projecting him in the No. 2 role with 6.7 targets per game, 1.7 behind Olave.

Olave’s target volume is still helped by the lack of proven options behind him. Likely WR3 Devaughn Vele is a third-year undrafted free agent who managed just 25-293-2 in 13 games last year. TE Juwan Johnson’s career year came with a major assist from a thin depth chart. We project Johnson’s targets to drop 15% to 86.7 from last year’s 102.

WR Bryce Lance’s size and athleticism make him a name to watch after he totaled 2,157 yards and 25 TDs over the past two seasons at North Dakota State. But even if the rookie pushes for a role, it would likely ding Vele and not Olave.

'He's Just an Explosive Play Waiting to Happen'

Shough returns for Year 2 after calling his connection with Olave “explosive.”

"I think for him, he's just super consistent,” Shough said. “Mentally, what he's had to overcome just from coming in, drafted at a high level, had some kind of freak injuries. He's just been the same dude showing up. He's just an explosive play waiting to happen and I love the guy.

"We're going to keep building that chemistry. He's been big for me coming in you know, kind of, halfway through the season and just being that positive ear and my voice. We're just constantly communicating. Fired up to kind of see what we can do next year.”

Olave finished last year with a 56% catch rate, but that climbed to 66.2% with Shough. If that efficiency holds on Olave’s current usage, another 2025-level season is well within reach.

Saints Return the Same Pass-Friendly Scheme

Olave enters Year 2 with HC Kellen Moore and OC Doug Nussmeier.

It’s the same braintrust that ranked fifth in pass rate, fifth in neutral pass rate, sixth in total pass attempts, and first in pace and situation-neutral pace last season. Even with an 11th-place finish in total plays, there’s no reason to worry about the staff.

Paths To Ceiling

Olave proved last year that his ceiling rises to mid-WR1 territory. And now he returns the same QB and coaching staff that helped him reach career-best marks.

Olave is entering just his age-26 season and should remain the clear lead target. His best-case outlook includes repeating last year’s target share over a full season with Shough, who ideally improves on a promising rookie campaign.

That combo could land Olave near the top of the position in scoring again.

Risk Factors

Even though he made it through last season without a concussion, that history puts Olave at risk of missing multiple games if he suffers another.

It’s also possible that Tyson siphons some of that career-best target share. A quick rookie-year adjustment could keep Olave from matching his 9.8 targets per game from 2025, while a high-priced new RB could turn some of last year’s pass attempts into rushes.