Chris Olave - Fantasy Points Outlook

What You Need to Know:

• The Saints moved up to #11 to take Olave as the 3rd WR in this year’s draft, 1 spot ahead of Jameson Williams. (Jahan Dotson and Treylon Burks followed as Round 1 WRs.)
• Olave broke out as a 19-year-old sophomore at Ohio State, drawing 18.7% of targets and producing 17.7% of receptions, 22.8% of receiving yards and 25% of TD catches. He ranked 21st in Pro Football Focus receiving grade that year, among 200 WRs with 50+ targets, and checked in 11th in yards per route run.
• Olave delivered market shares of 34.2% receptions, 36.7% yards and 31.8% TDs in a 7-game junior season that was shortened by COVID.
• Those market shares receded in his senior campaign: 20.8% receptions, 21.4% yards and 32.5% TDs. The season saw Ohio State introduce QB C.J. Stroud after 2 years of Justin Fields, and sophomore Jaxson Smith-Njigba emerged to lead the team in catches and yards.
• Olave ran a 4.39-second 40 at the Combine, befitting his career rate of 15.4 yards per catch in college.
• His 15.5-yard college average depth of target (according to PFF) was nearly 2 yards deeper than the ADOT of last year’s Saints leader in targets, Marquez Callaway (13.4). The 2 Saints who beat that were WR Kevin White (32.0 on 5 total targets) and WR Kenny Stills (20.6, 21 targets).
• QB Jameis Winston means an ADOT boost over Drew Brees. His career mark stands at 10.8. Brees posted ADOTs of 6.9 and 6.5 in his final 2 campaigns.
• Winston is coming off a torn left ACL. The Saints re-signed him this offseason after a 7-game stint as starter to open last season.
• New Orleans also expects WR Michael Thomas back from the ankle injury that cost him all of 2021, though it doesn’t look like he’ll get on the field until at least training camp. The team also signed Jarvis Landry in free agency.
• The 2021 Saints ran the league’s 3rd most run-heavy offense, rushing on 48.5% of offensive snaps. They were 5th most run heavy in 2020. Sean Payton resigned this offseason, but the team returns its OC and passing-game coordinator from last year.
• ESPN’s Mike Triplett writes that WR Chris Olave “has looked the part” through minicamp practices. Triplet points out the rookie’s “fluid route-running” and “big-play ability.”

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Olave clearly brings plenty of physical upside, and his style matches well with QB Jameis Winston’s desire to send targets downfield. Olave looks intriguing long term. His primary questions for this year, though, center on his QB and available targets. Winston is coming off an ACL tear and barely played the year before that. Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry have each taken turns as leading targets, plus Alvin Kamara has drawn dominant target shares for a RB. Ultimately, Olave projects as a more frustrating play than comforting for lineup-setting formats, especially in full-PPR scoring. Even in best ball, you can find more upside in other options around his ADP.