Bottom Line

It’s pretty easy to bet on Olave going forward.

The biggest fantasy question for him in 2023 will be whether he’s leaving the board too early. That’s been as WR12 in half-PPR Underdog Fantasy drafts; WR13 in FFPC’s PPR format.

Olave has the ability to score in that range. But he’ll need to grow his target share further – or rely on high-end efficiency – to consistently score at the WR1 level. That makes him a risky (albeit exciting) pick at current market cost.

What We Learned Last Year

• Olave was pretty excellent in a less-than-excellent pass offense as a rookie.
• His 2.42 yards per route ranked seventh among 80 WRs with 50+ targets. It also led the nine rookie WRs who landed in that range and ranks fifth among all 50+ target rookie WRs over the past 10 years.
• Want to know which four rookie WRs beat him?
  • Ja’Marr Chase
  • Justin Jefferson
  • A.J. Brown
  • Odell Beckham Jr.
• Olave ranked 21st among all WRs in target share last season, garnering 25.6% of Saints targets over his 15 games.
• He ranked 17th in the league in targets per game but just 29th in receptions per game.
• Olave’s 14.5 yards per catch ranked 14th among qualifiers, and there was upside beyond that. Only three players reached 40 targets and beat him in average target depth (14.4).
• Among 97 WRs with 40+ targets, Olave ranked 16th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade.
• He tied for just 64th among the group in passer rating on balls thrown his way, also ranking just 15th among Saints in that category. Based on the rest of Olave’s numbers, though, we’d blame that on him not having a QB capable of consistently delivering mid-level and deep passes.

What to Expect in 2023

• QB Derek Carr is a likely upgrade over both Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston. (Remember him starting the first three games last year?)
• Carr hasn’t been great on deep balls. His 39.4% adjusted completion rate ranked just 24th among 36 QBs with 20+ deep attempts (20+ yards downfield) last year, according to PFF. Dalton ranked 34th.
• Carr also ranked just 25th the year before. But he finished fifth, 16th, and second the three seasons prior.
• Carr checked in just 44th in adjusted completion rate to the midrange last year (10-19 yards) but ranked top-six two of the previous three seasons.
• Saints HC Dennis Allen has praised Carr’s intelligence and said the team targeted him as soon as it became clear the Raiders would be moving on. That likely signals more of a passing lean than New Orleans has had the past few years.
• The Saints have ranked among the bottom 12 in pass rate each of the past three seasons. Even if they stay in that range, there’s room for more sheer play volume. New Orleans ranked fourth-slowest in situation-neutral play pace last year, down from 14th in 2021.
• Olave faces primary target competition from WR Michael Thomas this year, assuming the veteran is ready when the season begins. That didn’t get in Olave’s way last season, though. His target share was actually slightly higher over the first three weeks (with Thomas) than it was from Week 4 on (without Thomas).
• Beyond Thomas, second-year WR Rashid Shaheed looks like the No. 3 wideout. TE Juwan Johnson got an extension this March, and the team added TE Foster Moreau.