Bottom Line

Dak couldn’t repeat the magic of his 37-TD season from 2020.

A Week 1 thumb fracture and a lack of weapons proved tough to overcome in 2022, but they’re both non-issues now.

Brandin Cooks and a healthier Michael Gallup make this one of Dak’s better WR corps. Coming at a QB10 price tag, the 30-year-old is a fine target for patient QB drafters.

What We Learned Last Year

• Prescott appeared in only 12 games.
  • He suffered an extra-articular fracture to his right thumb in Week 1. He sat out the next five games following surgery.
• Overall, Dak ranked QB9 in fantasy points per game.
  • He rarely flashed an elite ceiling, though, with two top-5 finishes.
• Among 31 QBs with 300+ dropbacks, Dak tied for 12th in yards per attempt, ranked 21st in adjusted completion rate, tied for 15th in big-time throw rate, and ranked 21st in Pro Football Focus passing grade.
• Dak tied for the league lead in INTs (15) and set a career high in INT rate (3.8%).
• The offense lacked a dependable field stretcher behind WR CeeDee Lamb.
  • WR Michael Gallup played 14 games but was clearly affected by his return from the late-2021 ACL tear.
  • Rookie WR Jalen Tolbert, a Round 3 pick, barely saw the field.
  • So WR Noah Brown, who tallied 425 yards over his first four seasons, wound up finishing 3rd among Cowboys in targets.
• Prescott scrambled at a higher rate than he did in 2021 (once every 24 dropbacks vs. once every 29.2 dropbacks). Still, it didn’t translate into fantasy success.
  • After going for 6 rushing scores in his first two seasons, Dak posted 1 rushing TD for the second straight season.
  • He averaged 15.1 rushing yards per game, up from 9.1 in 2021. Prescott was coming off a 2020 ankle fracture that year.
• Dallas’ O-line wasn’t a weakness. Dak saw pressure on 31.4% of his dropbacks – a mid-pack mark. They ranked 15th in PFF pass blocking grade.

What to Expect in 2023

• Dak will be almost a full year removed from right thumb surgery come Week 1. It’s a non-issue.
• Dallas swung a trade for former Texans WR Brandin Cooks.
  • Cooks is coming off a down 2022 and isn’t in his prime at 30. But the 10th-year vet still provides some much-needed speed.
• Offseason chatter on WR Michael Gallup indicates he’s much closer to pre-ACL form. He’ll likely slot into the No. 3 role behind Lamb and Cooks.
• Dallas let TE Dalton Schultz walk in free agency. With Round 2 rookie Luke Schoonmaker, Jake Ferguson, and Peyton Hendershot battling for starting snaps, it’s a downgraded position.
• Kellen Moore left to take the Chargers’ OC job, so HC Mike McCarthy will call plays for the first time since 2018 (in Green Bay). Dallas promoted Brian Schottenheimer to OC.
  • Schottenheimer has teased a “fast” approach on offense. Dallas was already second in situation-neutral pace last season, per Football Outsiders.
  • He added that about 70% of the offense will resemble what they ran in 2022.
  • McCarthy has said that the offense won’t feature different terminology. We’re ultimately not expecting much of an adjustment for Dak.
• Dallas’ O-line remains solid, but how much will the team get out of Tyron Smith? The once-elite LT has missed 33 games over the past three seasons.