Bottom Line

Pierce had a pretty good rookie campaign, especially when you consider that he played on one of the league’s worst offenses.

The new coaching staff likes his running style and should keep him as lead ball carrier. But Pierce will need to fight Devin Singletary for receiving work and is bound to wind up with less workload share than what he got last year.

That limits the ceiling, keeping Pierce just a decent RB2 for redraft leagues – less attractive in PPR.

What We Learned Last Year

• Last year’s Texans loved their fourth-round rookie. Pierce handled 74.3% of the team’s rushing attempts over his 13 games. He ranked 10th among all RBs in opportunity share (including targets and adjusted for games missed).
• He finished 21st in points per game for PPR and half-PPR formats; tied for 19th in non-PPR points per game.
• Pierce’s effectiveness was mixed, depending on the metric you view. He ranked 16th among RBs in rushing yards but just 30th in Football Outsiders’ effective yards.
  • What’s that mean?
  • “In general, players with more Effective Yards than standard yards played better than standard stats would otherwise indicate, while players with fewer Effective Yards than standard yards played worse than standard stats would otherwise indicate.”
• He also rated just 37th in rushing DYAR and DVOA – FO’s two primary RB efficiency metrics – among 42 qualifying RBs.
• Pierce didn’t get much help from his O-line:
  • Houston ranked 31st in adjusted line yards, basically the rushing yardage the blocking accounts for per play.
  • The Texans also ranked just 26th in FO’s stuffed rate … which measures exactly what it sounds like it does.
• Pierce finished a disappointing 35th in success rate, meaning he didn’t fare well at gaining what was needed by situation.
  • But he tied for 12th in yards after contact per attempt and ranked second among all RBs in Pro Football Focus’ elusive rating. So the rookie did well when tasked with creating his yardage
• He did nothing to impress in the passing game.
  • 40th in receiving DVOA and DYAR among 51 qualifying RBs
    • Did beat teammates Dare Ogunbowale and Rex Burkhead.
  • Rated poorly as a receiver and pass blocker by Pro Football Focus grading
• It’s worth remembering that Pierce got limited college opportunities under a coach (Dan Mullen) who got fired during Pierce’s final season.
  • Pierce topped out at 106 carries as a 2020 junior.
  • He caught 45 career passes, with a high of 19 as a senior
  • Current Cowboys RB Malik Davis beat Pierce in receptions on those 2020 and 2021 Florida teams.

What to Expect in 2023

• Pierce should remain the backfield leader. Houston imported only Devin Singletary and Mike Boone, neither for big money.
• Here’s what new HC Demeco Ryans said in March about Pierce: "He fits my style of ball. That's the type of guy I would love to hand the ball to and see him create. I love his aggressive nature and how he runs the ball."
• We’ll see about the receiving work. Singletary hasn’t rated well in advanced receiving metrics over his four seasons. But he beat Pierce in PFF receiving grade last season. And all four of Singletary’s pass-blocking grades have beaten what Pierce earned last year.
  • Singletary delivered his best pass-blocking grade yet last season, ranking eighth among 61 RBs who drew at least 20 targets.
  • And he did so on the position’s third-most pass-blocking reps.
  • You don’t get points for a RB pass blocking. But strength in that area could position Singletary as Houston’s top receiving back.
  • Pierce’s position coach did say in June that the second-year back has showed significant improvement in pass protection.
• The Texans have tried to enhance the O-line. They gave big money to veteran free-agent G Shaq Mason. They drafted Penn State C Juice Scruggs in Round 2.
• That plus the near-certain upgrade at QB (C.J. Stroud over Davis Mills) can only help the offense.
• The scheme should be fairly run-friendly. San Francisco averaged roughly 44% run to 56% pass over new OC Bobby Slowik’s six years on staff there, with predictable variation between winning and losing seasons.
  • The more Houston can win this year, the more rushing work is likely to be available.
  • Don’t be surprised if the Texans also lean that way a little more to help a rookie QB and mediocre corps of pass catchers.