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Dameon Pierce - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsDameon Pierce's Basic Stats

Dameon Pierce
ADP: 4.7
Bye: 7
Experience: 1 Yr(s)
Age: 23.6
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 218
40 Time: 4.59
SPARQx (Rank): 109.90 (46%)
Burst Score (Rank): 118.20 (48%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.99 (4%)
Three Cone Drill (Rank): 7.53

Dameon Pierce's Weekly Outlook

Week 5 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
60.9 0.3 2 14.9 0.1 9.6
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
59.7 0.4 2.1 15.2 0.1 10.1

Dameon Pierce's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#21 Running Back

161.2 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
4.7 234.5 955.3 6.4 2.1 2.1 33.3 242.9 1.2

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsDameon Pierce's Preseason Player Analysis

View RB Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

Pierce had a pretty good rookie campaign, especially when you consider that he played on one of the league’s worst offenses.

The new coaching staff likes his running style and should keep him as lead ball carrier. But Pierce will need to fight Devin Singletary for receiving work and is bound to wind up with less workload share than what he got last year.

That limits the ceiling, keeping Pierce just a decent RB2 for redraft leagues – less attractive in PPR.

What We Learned Last Year
  • Last year’s Texans loved their fourth-round rookie. Pierce handled 74.3% of the team’s rushing attempts over his 13 games. He ranked 10th among all RBs in opportunity share (including targets and adjusted for games missed).
  • He finished 21st in points per game for PPR and half-PPR formats; tied for 19th in non-PPR points per game.
  • Pierce’s effectiveness was mixed, depending on the metric you view. He ranked 16th among RBs in rushing yards but just 30th in Football Outsiders’ effective yards.
    • What’s that mean?
    • “In general, players with more Effective Yards than standard yards played better than standard stats would otherwise indicate, while players with fewer Effective Yards than standard yards played worse than standard stats would otherwise indicate.”
  • He also rated just 37th in rushing DYAR and DVOA – FO’s two primary RB efficiency metrics – among 42 qualifying RBs.
  • Pierce didn’t get much help from his O-line:
    • Houston ranked 31st in adjusted line yards, basically the rushing yardage the blocking accounts for per play.
    • The Texans also ranked just 26th in FO’s stuffed rate … which measures exactly what it sounds like it does.
  • Pierce finished a disappointing 35th in success rate, meaning he didn’t fare well at gaining what was needed by situation.
    • But he tied for 12th in yards after contact per attempt and ranked second among all RBs in Pro Football Focus’ elusive rating. So the rookie did well when tasked with creating his yardage
  • He did nothing to impress in the passing game.
    • 40th in receiving DVOA and DYAR among 51 qualifying RBs
      • Did beat teammates Dare Ogunbowale and Rex Burkhead.
    • Rated poorly as a receiver and pass blocker by Pro Football Focus grading
  • It’s worth remembering that Pierce got limited college opportunities under a coach (Dan Mullen) who got fired during Pierce’s final season.
    • Pierce topped out at 106 carries as a 2020 junior.
    • He caught 45 career passes, with a high of 19 as a senior
    • Current Cowboys RB Malik Davis beat Pierce in receptions on those 2020 and 2021 Florida teams.
What to Expect in 2023
  • Pierce should remain the backfield leader. Houston imported only Devin Singletary and Mike Boone, neither for big money.
  • Here’s what new HC Demeco Ryans said in March about Pierce: "He fits my style of ball. That's the type of guy I would love to hand the ball to and see him create. I love his aggressive nature and how he runs the ball."
  • We’ll see about the receiving work. Singletary hasn’t rated well in advanced receiving metrics over his four seasons. But he beat Pierce in PFF receiving grade last season. And all four of Singletary’s pass-blocking grades have beaten what Pierce earned last year.
    • Singletary delivered his best pass-blocking grade yet last season, ranking eighth among 61 RBs who drew at least 20 targets.
    • And he did so on the position’s third-most pass-blocking reps.
    • You don’t get points for a RB pass blocking. But strength in that area could position Singletary as Houston’s top receiving back.
    • Pierce’s position coach did say in June that the second-year back has showed significant improvement in pass protection.
  • The Texans have tried to enhance the O-line. They gave big money to veteran free-agent G Shaq Mason. They drafted Penn State C Juice Scruggs in Round 2.
  • That plus the near-certain upgrade at QB (C.J. Stroud over Davis Mills) can only help the offense.
  • The scheme should be fairly run-friendly. San Francisco averaged roughly 44% run to 56% pass over new OC Bobby Slowik’s six years on staff there, with predictable variation between winning and losing seasons.
    • The more Houston can win this year, the more rushing work is likely to be available.
    • Don’t be surprised if the Texans also lean that way a little more to help a rookie QB and mediocre corps of pass catchers.

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Dameon Pierce, RB HOU

8:20pm EDT 10/1/23

Dameon Pierce tops 100 total yards

Texans RB Dameon Pierce gained 81 yards on 24 attempts in Week 4. Houston gained an early lead on Pittsburgh and never looked back, which helped Pierce see his biggest workload since Week 9 of 2022. He encountered bad luck when a five-yard TD was overturned by penalty, but this outing was still encouraging. Backup RB Devin Singletary mixed in for only 7 carries, while C.J. Stroud continued to impress. Pierce should remain busy for a Week 5 date at Atlanta.

View all Dameon Pierce Shark Bites »

Texans RB Dameon Pierce found paydirt in Week 3 vs. the Jaguars with 14 carries for 31 yards and 1 rushing TD. The second-year back ceded a concerning amount of work to teammate Devin Singletary (9 carries, 41 yards), however. The big thing Pierce had going for him entering the contest was his 61.5% workshare of the Texans' RB touch opportunities. The narrowing of that split between himself and Singletary should raise an eyebrow ahead of their next matchup vs. the Steelers in Week 4.

View all Dameon Pierce Shark Bites »

Texans RB Dameon Pierce had another disappointing outing in Week 2, racking up 35 total yards on a combined 18 touch opportunities vs. the Colts. The second-year back is still by far and away the Houston backfield leader, though. Teammate Devin Singletary only saw 5 touches, and fellow RB Dare Ogunbowale’s pair of carries didn’t make much of a dent. Fantasy managers should be encouraged by the volume that Pierce sees weekly, though tempering expectations from here on out will be vital. Week 3 vs. the Jaguars will provide Pierce another opportunity to improve.

View all Dameon Pierce Shark Bites »

Texans QB C.J. Stroud (shoulder) is expected to play vs. the Colts today, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Stroud was added to the injury report and limited in practice on Friday with a sore right shoulder. He's no better than a low-end QB2 in Week 2 fantasy lineups, but his availability is good news for Houston's offense.

View all C.J. Stroud Shark Bites »

Texans OC Bobby Slowik said he should have given RB Dameon Pierce more work in Week 1. The second-year man tallied only 11 carries in a blowout loss. “DP should touch the ball more than he did,” Slowik said. “That's definitely something we want to do. That's our starting identity. We're here to run the ball.” Houston should be able to stick with the run on Sunday as they head home to face Indianapolis. Pierce projects as a top-24 option in our Week 2 RB rankings.

View all Dameon Pierce Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

Dameon Pierce, RB HOU
Dynasty MVP 113.0
Position Rank #30 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
376
577
982
Dynasty Write-up
As a rookie, Pierce quickly reached the top of Houston’s depth chart and easily led the team in all major rushing categories. The 4th-round pick will now learn a new system under OC Bobby Slowik and HC DeMeco Ryans.
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