Deshaun Watson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Watson will need to look a lot different from the version we got the past two years to become a fantasy difference-maker in 2024. Considering he’s still working back from shoulder surgery as of this writing, we’ll need to see a lot more before elevating him from the QB2-3 fringe.

What We Learned Last Year

• Watson presents plenty of on-field issues to match his off-field set.
• The QB struggled to stay healthy in his first non-suspension year with the Browns.
  • He suffered a shoulder injury in Week 3 that cost him two games.
  • He aggravated that injury early in his Week 7 return and missed another contest.
  • Watson then suffered the season-ending shoulder fracture in Week 10 that would require surgery.
  • He has still been working back up to full strength through the offseason program.
• The timeline of last year’s health struggles make it tough to know how much time Watson actually spent fully healthy. When he did play, the results proved disappointing:
  • His 4.1% passing-TD rate matched his 2022 career low.
  • Watson’s 61.4% completion rate exceeded only his 2022 number (58.2%).
  • He posted a career low in passing success rate (according to Pro Football Reference), matched his low for yards per pass attempt, and set a low for yards per completion.
• Pro Football Focus credited him with a better passing grade than in 2022. But Watson ranked just 26th among 45 QBs with 150+ dropbacks. Other ranks among that group included:
  • 37th in completion rate
  • 32nd in adjusted completion rate
  • 41st in completion rate over expected
  • 30th in yards per attempt
• Watson also set career lows in rushing attempts and rushing yards per game.

What to Expect in 2024

• The Browns traded for WR Jerry Jeudy and promptly extended his contract. It’s understandable if you don’t find Jeudy an exciting player at this point, but he’s most likely an upgrade over what Elijah Moore delivered the past two years – and potentially a big one.
• Has Moore been a significant hurdle between Watson and success, either in real or fantasy football? Probably not.
• The key to Watson rebounding as a fantasy asset will be him proving he can still play. He hasn’t even looked good for any meaningful stretch with the Browns yet. His supporting talent – Jeudy, Amari Cooper, Moore (as WR3), David Njoku, and a solid backfield – looks plenty strong enough.
• Cleveland replaced OC Alex Van Pelt this offseason. Ken Dorsey takes over after spending most of the past five years with the Bills, first as QBs coach and then as OC the past two years.
  • Although Buffalo sported a better record after the OC switch, advanced metrics suggest the offensive performance didn’t actually improve and may have lagged. The Bills benefited from being on the right side of turnover regression.
  • Dorsey proved more pass-leaning in Buffalo than replacement Joe Brady did over the second half of last season.
  • The Browns of the past two seasons ranked 19th in neutral-situation pass rate, according to RBSDM.com. The Bills ranked fourth.
• Combine that with the Jeudy trade and Nick Chubb’s knee injury, and it’s not hard to envision this year’s Browns leaning pass a bit more. An increase in passing volume would obviously give Watson more opportunities to compile numbers, even if his efficiency doesn’t rebound significantly.