Bottom Line

Watson played some of the worst football of his career in 2022 after nearly two years away from the game due to off-field issues.

It’s tough to say whether or not he’ll get back to the borderline-MVP caliber play he once displayed as a member of the Texans. Regardless, fantasy managers should bet on the talent of the ex-superstar in 2023 drafts in hopes of a rebound effort.

What We Learned Last Year

• Watson entered 2022 serving an 11-game suspension for violating the NFL’s personal-conduct policy stemming from numerous allegations of sexual misconduct. He subsequently returned in Week 13 of the season and started the final six games.
• He finished the year as the QB36 overall, with an average of 14.3 fantasy points per game.
• Watson registered a pair of top-12 weekly finishes in Weeks 17 and 18 but otherwise finished as a QB2 or worse in his four other games played.
• He didn’t reach 300 passing yards in any of his six games.
• It’s worth noting that the former 1st-round NFL draft pick had not played in a game since the end of the 2020 season between his off-field issues and a falling out with the Texans organization that led to a trade request.
• From 2017-2020, Watson ranked:
  • 2nd among QBs in total fantasy points
  • 3rd in fantasy points per game (22.04)
  • 4th in total rushing yards (1,677)
  • 5th in rushing TDs (18)

What to Expect in 2023

• We’re not in the business of telling fantasy managers how to feel about players from the standpoint of ethics or morality. Purely from a football standpoint, Watson is a very talented QB with plenty of room to improve upon a subpar 2022 return campaign.
• At his best, the former Clemson product is a dual-threat QB with the upside to finish as a top-5 fantasy contributor at the position.
• The Browns bolstered the offense around Watson by trading for former Jets WR Elijah Moore and drafting WR Cedric Tillman with the 74th overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft.
• Whether or not Watson can regain his pre-controversy form is on his shoulders. The weapons are all there for him at his disposal. Assuming everything clicks, we expect him to be a solid low-end QB1 in fantasy in 2023.