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Deshaun Watson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsDeshaun Watson's Basic Stats

Deshaun Watson
ADP: 13.3
Bye: 10
Experience: 7
Age: 28.8
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 223
40 Time: 4.66

SPARQx (Rank): 98.90 (76%)
Burst Score (Rank): 116.40 (74%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.26 (75%)
Throw Velocity (Rank): 49.00 (2%)

Deshaun Watson's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
225.9 1.45 0.8 25.3 17
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
262.8 1.7 0.7 25.1 19.9

Deshaun Watson's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#18 Quarterback

272.7 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
13.3 339.2/539.2 3614.4 23.2 12.8 81.6 404.8 4.8

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsDeshaun Watson's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Watson will need to look a lot different from the version we got the past two years to become a fantasy difference-maker in 2024. Considering he’s still working back from shoulder surgery as of this writing, we’ll need to see a lot more before elevating him from the QB2-3 fringe.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Watson presents plenty of on-field issues to match his off-field set.
  • The QB struggled to stay healthy in his first non-suspension year with the Browns.
    • He suffered a shoulder injury in Week 3 that cost him two games.
    • He aggravated that injury early in his Week 7 return and missed another contest.
    • Watson then suffered the season-ending shoulder fracture in Week 10 that would require surgery.
    • He has still been working back up to full strength through the offseason program.
  • The timeline of last year’s health struggles make it tough to know how much time Watson actually spent fully healthy. When he did play, the results proved disappointing:
    • His 4.1% passing-TD rate matched his 2022 career low.
    • Watson’s 61.4% completion rate exceeded only his 2022 number (58.2%).
    • He posted a career low in passing success rate (according to Pro Football Reference), matched his low for yards per pass attempt, and set a low for yards per completion.
  • Pro Football Focus credited him with a better passing grade than in 2022. But Watson ranked just 26th among 45 QBs with 150+ dropbacks. Other ranks among that group included:
    • 37th in completion rate
    • 32nd in adjusted completion rate
    • 41st in completion rate over expected
    • 30th in yards per attempt
  • Watson also set career lows in rushing attempts and rushing yards per game.

What to Expect in 2024

  • The Browns traded for WR Jerry Jeudy and promptly extended his contract. It’s understandable if you don’t find Jeudy an exciting player at this point, but he’s most likely an upgrade over what Elijah Moore delivered the past two years – and potentially a big one.
  • Has Moore been a significant hurdle between Watson and success, either in real or fantasy football? Probably not.
  • The key to Watson rebounding as a fantasy asset will be him proving he can still play. He hasn’t even looked good for any meaningful stretch with the Browns yet. His supporting talent – Jeudy, Amari Cooper, Moore (as WR3), David Njoku, and a solid backfield – looks plenty strong enough.
  • Cleveland replaced OC Alex Van Pelt this offseason. Ken Dorsey takes over after spending most of the past five years with the Bills, first as QBs coach and then as OC the past two years.
    • Although Buffalo sported a better record after the OC switch, advanced metrics suggest the offensive performance didn’t actually improve and may have lagged. The Bills benefited from being on the right side of turnover regression.
    • Dorsey proved more pass-leaning in Buffalo than replacement Joe Brady did over the second half of last season.
    • The Browns of the past two seasons ranked 19th in neutral-situation pass rate, according to RBSDM.com. The Bills ranked fourth.
  • Combine that with the Jeudy trade and Nick Chubb’s knee injury, and it’s not hard to envision this year’s Browns leaning pass a bit more. An increase in passing volume would obviously give Watson more opportunities to compile numbers, even if his efficiency doesn’t rebound significantly.

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Amari Cooper, WR CLE

3:26pm EDT 7/23/24

Browns Boost Amari Cooper's Contract

The Browns have agreed to a contract adjustment for WR Amari Cooper. According to multiple sources, Cleveland has guaranteed the $20 million salary for 2024, the final year of Cooper's existing deal. He'll also get more of the money upfront than previously agreed upon, plus $5 million more available in incentives.

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Browns WR Amari Cooper did not report with the rest of the team for manadatory minicamp Tuesday. That followed the veteran staying away from voluntary OTAs as well. Cooper's contract runs out at the end of this season, so he's likely staying away in pursuit of an extension. We'll see whether this spills over into training camp.

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The Browns and QB Jameis Winston have agreed to a one-year deal worth up to $8.7 million, according to insider Jordan Schultz. Winston had interest from "multiple teams," per Schultz, but was presumably not offered a starting job. He'll slide in behind QB Deshaun Watson in Cleveland. Watson is coming off a disappointing 2023 season that ended with a right shoulder injury that required surgery. Considering what the Browns are paying him, though, Watson will need to be even worse this year for Winston to see the field. Winston is only worth stashing in deeper superflex dynasty leagues. This signing means that QB Joe Flacco won't be back in Cleveland.

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Browns QB Deshaun Watson (shoulder) is expected to resume throwing in March, according to insider Mary Kay Cabot. His rehab from November surgery on his right shoulder has gone smoothly by all accounts. Watson got back in the weight room this week, per Cabot, and should at least be a limited participant in April's OTAs. Watson was mostly disappointing prior to that shoulder injury last year, finishing the 2023 campaign with a 61% completion rate and 6.5 yards per attempt. It's been three years now since Watson's big 2020 season -- and it's becoming increasingly unlikely that he returns to that level of play. But he did still average 23.7 rushing yards per game last year, which gives Watson a chance to be a fantasy asset in 2024 even if his real-life performance is lacking. He scored as a top-10 fantasy QB in three of his five full games last year. We'll keep tabs on that right shoulder.

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The Browns are hiring Ken Dorsey as their OC, according to multiple sources. He'll replace Alex Van Pelt, who'd been Cleveland's OC since HC Kevin Stefanski took over in 2020. Dorsey spent a season-and-a-half as Buffalo's OC, taking over in 2022 and leading the Bills to second-place finishes in both total yards and points. He was fired midway through this past season, despite the Bills averaging 26.2 points through the opening 10 games. (They averaged 27.1 the rest of the way.) We'll see exactly how much say Dorsey has in Stefanski's offense this coming season. Stefanski has called plays the last four seasons.

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Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Deshaun Watson, QB CLE
Dynasty MVP 217.6
Position Rank #41 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
721
1,160
1,806
Dynasty Write-up
Watson battled a shoulder issue for a good chunk of 2023, limiting his effectiveness. He was placed on IR on November 15 following a right shoulder fracture that required surgery. Watson is expected to make a full recovery for 2024.
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