Bottom Line

Smith was one of the biggest surprises of 2022, playing awesome real-life football and finishing seventh among QBs in fantasy points per game.

He’s back as Seattle’s starter this year. He’ll operate in the same pass-leaning offense piloted by OC Shane Waldron. He returns WRs D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. And the Seahawks added WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba and RB Zach Charbonnet in the first two rounds of this spring’s draft.

The only concern with Smith is that his big 2022 season came out of nowhere.

There’s some one-hit wonder risk here. But Smith’s situation is so favorable that it’s tough to see him failing.

We like his odds of at least low-end QB1 production in 2023, with upside into the top 8.

What We Learned Last Year

• In his first season as a full-time starter since 2014, Smith threw for 4,282 yards and 30 TDs.
• Those marks ranked eighth and fourth league wide.
• Smith added 366 rushing yards on 68 carries, both eighth among QBs.
• He ranked fifth at his position in total fantasy points and seventh in points per game.
• Smith finished as a top-5 fantasy QB in four different weeks and finished worse than QB13 just five times.
• His ranks among 31 qualifying QBs in key efficiency metrics:
  • completion rate: first
  • adjusted completion rate: fifth
  • yards per attempt: ninth
  • adjusted yards per attempt: eighth
• Smith ranked eighth among those 31 QBs in Pro Football Focus passing grade.
• His PFF grade dipped from 84.8 from Weeks 1-8 to 64.2 from Weeks 9-18. The former mark ranked third among 33 qualifiers; the latter 24th out of 30.
• Smith’s completion rate and yards per attempt also sunk from the first half of the season to the second – although his 67.5% completion rate and 7.3 yards per attempt over the final nine games were still solid marks.
• He averaged 262.0 passing yards and 1.9 TDs per game from Week 9 on, ranking seventh among QBs in fantasy points per game.

What to Expect in 2023

• Smith was set to hit free agency this offseason but agreed to a three-year, $75 million contract with the Seahawks before hitting the open market. Seattle could get out of the deal next offseason with about $14 million in cap savings, but Smith is at least locked in as the 2023 starter.
• He returns to the same offense piloted by OC Shane Waldron that last year ranked:
  • 12th in pass rate
  • fifth in situation-neutral pass rate
  • eighth in pass rate over expected
• The Seahawks return their top three targets from last year in D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Noah Fant. Those guys combined for 60% of the team’s receiving yards and 63% of the receiving TDs in 2022.
• Seattle also added WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Round 1 of this spring’s draft and RB Zach Charbonnet in Round 2.
• Smith-Njigba’s final college season was wrecked by a hamstring injury. But he exploded for 1,606 yards and nine TDs as a true sophomore in 2021, out-producing both Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. Smith-Njigba projects as a huge upgrade over last year’s No. 3 WR, Marquise Goodwin.
• Charbonnet might also be an immediate upgrade as a passing-down back. He totaled 61 catches for 518 yards (8.5 YPC) over the last two years at UCLA.
• Smith turns 33 in October.
• A second-round pick way back in 2013, Smith flamed out as Jets starter in 2013 and 2014. He attempted just 196 passes over the next six seasons before last year’s breakout.