Geno Smith Fantasy Overview

2025 Role & Results

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Smith played 15 games in his lone season with the Raiders. It started well, with 70.6% completions and 362 passing yards in a victory at New England. That week’s QB15 fantasy finish would be one of just six times that Smith landed among the top 20.

That included just two top-12 weeks and one other higher than 17th, a fortunate QB13 finish in Week 12 against Cleveland. (Smith’s 18.1 fantasy points that week -- by our default scoring system -- would have ranked just 22nd at the position in scoring average for the season.)

Smith’s scoring average fell below all three of his Seattle seasons and even his rookie-year mark with the Jets.

Efficiency & Regression

Smith’s 67.4% completion rate for the Raiders stayed in line with his Seattle numbers:

• 69.8% in 2022 (his first full starting year for the Seahawks)
• 64.7% in 2023
• 70.4% in 2024

The Raiders’ limited pass-catching corps and one-year coaching staff helped limit Smith to the shortest average depth of target in his career (6.9). That led to a career low in yards per attempt and his lowest yards per attempt since the Jets days.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Supporting Cast

Smith jumps to a Jets offense with one dominant target. WR Garrett Wilson ranked second in the league with a 30.4% target share last season after finishing top-12 each of the previous two years.

He’ll remain the No. 1, but the team would probably like him to be less dominant after drafting TE Kenyon Sadiq and WR Omar Cooper Jr. in the first round. They join WR Adonai Mitchell and TE Mason Taylor in competing for top spots.

The Jets franchised RB Breece Hall and then reached a three-year deal with him. Hall has logged the sixth-most receptions among RBs since he entered the league in 2022. That included 76 catches in 2023 and 57 in 2024. His 8.7 career yards per catch signal high-end receiving ability for the position.

It’s not a terrific group overall, but there’s enough talent to help Smith to some starter-worthy fantasy outings.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

Frank Reich arrives as the new OC after Tanner Engstrand’s first year on the job got him booted.

Reich last coached in the NFL in 2023, when he got through just 11 games as Panthers HC. That team balanced the run and pass, ranking 16th in neutral pass rate. That marked Reich’s fifth straight offense to rank 16th or lower in that category.

This marked a notable shift vs. Reich’s previous five years, which included:

• Two seasons as Chargers OC
• Two as Eagles OC
• One as Colts HC

That range averaged a No. 10 finish in neutral pass rate, including three seasons of eighth or higher.

Consider Reich willing to cater to his personnel, which should leave the Jets near the middle of the league in run-pass split, game script permitting.

Paths to Ceiling

Smith’s three Seattle seasons found him ranking eighth, 24th, and 14th in fantasy points per game at the position. Can he get back to the heights of that span? Not likely.

Those Seahawks offenses started with a 25-year-old DK Metcalf and 30-year-old Tyler Lockett. The 2024 squad phased Lockett out while hitting Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 100 catches.

Garrett Wilson’s cool, but the Jets don’t come close to that group. Smith’s ceiling here is likely mid-QB2 range. Low impact.

Smith could get there by continuing his high completion rates and getting a little lucky with his passing-TD rate. Even then, we’re talking streamer at best.

Risk Factors

Smith also posted a career low in rushing yards per game last season. That category has fluctuated, but he fell short of 160 rushing yards in two of the past three years.

That lowers the floor for a guy who posted modest TD rates each of the past three years while increasing his INT rate each of the past two.

A Wilson injury would likely reveal a pass-catching corps that mixes lackluster talent with unproven rookies.