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Geno Smith - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsGeno Smith's Basic Stats

Geno Smith
ADP: 13.7
Bye: 10
Experience: 11
Age: 33.7
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 221
40 Time: 4.59

Burst Score (Rank): 120.60 (86%)
Throw Velocity (Rank): 55.00 (50%)

Geno Smith's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
256.9 1.67 0.7 11.9 17.8
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
261.2 1.8 0.7 16.1 18.6

Geno Smith's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#19 Quarterback

262 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
13.7 340.5/520.5 3853.5 25.05 10.5 40.5 178.5 3

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsGeno Smith's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Smith is coming off a QB24 finish in fantasy points per game last season. He played well, though, earning a career-high and ranking 12th in Pro Football Focus passing grade.

Smith ranked seventh in fantasy points back in 2022 and gets his top three WRs back this year in D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba this year. But Smith will be operating a new offense under first-time NFL OC Ryan Grubb.

There’s a relatively wide range of outcomes here, but Smith’s ADP is sitting in low-end QB2 territory. His fantasy ceiling extends well above that price tag.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Smith finished 24th among QBs in fantasy points per game last year.
  • That was way down from his QB7 finish in 2022.
  • What changed? Here’s where Smith went in key metrics from 2022 to 2023:
    • 33.6 pass attempts per game to 33.3
    • 69.8% completion rate to 64.7%
    • 7.5 yards per pass attempt to 7.3
    • 251.9 pass yards per game to 241.6
    • 1.8 pass TDs per game to 1.3
    • 5.2% pass TD rate to 4.0%
  • There was no noticeable dropoff in Smith’s play. In fact, he earned a career-high 82.1 Pro Football Focus passing grade. That ranked 12th among 33 qualifying QBs.
  • Smith ranked 19th among those 33 qualifiers in completion rate and 11th in yards per attempt.
  • He ranked seventh in NFL Next Gen Stats’ Completion Rate Over Expected.
  • Smith missed Weeks 14 and 15 with a groin injury.
  • He finished as a top-12 fantasy QB in just five of his 15 outings. That included a pair of top-5 finishes. But Smith ranked QB20 or worse six times.
  • On top of the dip in passing production, Smith also went from 21.5 rushing yards per game in 2022 to just 10.3 last year.

What to Expect in 2024

  • The Seahawks traded for QB Sam Howell in mid-March. He’s coming off an up-and-down season in Washington and shouldn’t be a threat for the starting job as long as Smith plays as well as he has the past two seasons.
  • Smith will be playing for a brand new coaching staff this year led by HC Mike Macdonald and OC Ryan Grubb.
  • This will be Grubb’s first NFL coaching job.
    • He’s been coaching in various offensive roles for various schools since 2003.
    • Grubb most recently served as the University of Washington’s OC. Those Huskies teams both ranked top 13 in the nation in total yards and points per game.
    • They were especially lethal through the air, ranking first and then second in passing yards per game. Washington ranked top five in pass attempts both years.
  • Grubb said in early June that his Seahawks offense might not be as pass-heavy.
    • “So when you talk about some of the run-pass balance, you have backs like (Kenneth Walker III) and Zach (Charbonnet), you are pretty excited about your ability to run the ball. So I think for us we are trying to meld some things together with some things we’ve done in the past, whether it’s a long time ago or even just the last few years and get the guys to understand that we want to be a physically dominant team and at the same time have that same explosive, confusing element that people are used to.”
  • Grubb loved throwing deep at Washington. QB Michael Penix ranked fourth in passes of 20+ yards in 2022 and then led the country in 2023.
  • That’ll be a change for Smith, who’s ranked near the middle of the league in both total pass attempts of 20+ yards and percentage of passes to travel 20+ yards the last two years.
    • He’s been very good throwing deep, though. Smith led 35 qualifying QBs in Pro Football Focus’ deep passing grade in 2022 and ranked ninth among 38 qualifiers last year.
  • The Seahawks return their top six targets from last year.
    • WR Tyler Lockett
    • WR D.K. Metcalf
    • WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
    • TE Noah Fant
    • RB Ken Walker
    • RB Zach Charbonnet
  • 31-year-old Lockett is in decline but still a solid player. Smith-Njigba should be ascending in year 2. This remains a strong pass-catching corps.
  • The 2023 Seahawks ranked:
    • 28th in Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade
    • 25th in ESPN’s pass-block win rate
  • Seattle might have as many as four new starters on the offensive line this season: OT George Fant, Gs Laken Tomlinson and McClendon Curtis, and rookie C Olu Oluwatimi. 2022 first-round LT Charles Cross returns for his third season.

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Sam Howell, QB SEA

11:13am EDT 3/15/24

Seahawks add Sam Howell to back up Geno Smith

The Seahawks shipped 2024 third- and fifth-round picks to the Commanders for QB Sam Howell. GM John Schneider said shortly after making the trade that QB Geno Smith remains the starter. "Geno's the guy and Sam will be backing him up," Schneider said. We're buying that considering Smith still played quality football last year, ranking 12th among 30 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus passing grades. Smith, of course, is 33 now and carries a big $38.5 million cap hit in 2025. So there's a chance that Howell replaces him then. "We were just really excited to be able to acquire him," Schneider said of Howell. "We know he's a serious dude. He's into it, he works his tail off. We got great reviews on him and we loved him coming out of college. So yeah, we're happy to get him in the mix." Howell is worth keeping stashed in most dynasty leagues.

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The Seahawks and WR Tyler Lockett have agreed to a restructured deal that will pay $30 million over the next two years, with $13 million guaranteed and a max value of $34 million. That locks in the veteran wideout with Seattle in 2024. The biggest impact here might be on second-year WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He ranked a clear third among Seahawks in targets last season, drawing 5.5 per game to Lockett's 7.4 and D.K. Metcalf's 7.2. JSN will need to pass one of those guys to become truly fantasy relevant. A new coaching staff presents opportunity for offensive design to change. But the new regime clearly believes Lockett remains good. And Metcalf just turned 26 in December. Lockett's Underdog Fantasy ADP sits WR56 to date, compared with Smith-Njigba's WR38. That sure looks imbalanced in the veteran's favor from here. Keeping the WR trio together helps QB Geno Smith's outlook -- assuming he keeps the job, of course.

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Seahawks HC Mike Macdonald stopped short of committing to QB Geno Smith as the 2024 starter in a Friday radio appearance. "We're always looking, always trying to figure out what’s best for the team all the time," Macdonald said. "I'm excited for Geno to come in here and start playing and start working. ... I don't want you to feel like I'm dodging this answer, but that's what I'm excited about, for him to come in here and start to build this team the way we envision building it." It's a rather cookie-cutter, coachspeak answer for early March -- but worth noting nonetheless. Smith is under contract for 2024 at a $26.4 million cap hit, and the Seahawks don't currently pick until 16th overall in this spring's draft. They'd likely need to trade up to land one of the top four QBs in the class. It's still more likely than not that Smith is under center for Seattle come Week 1, but don't consider him locked in at this point.

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The Seahawks are expected to hire Ryan Grubb as their new OC under HC Mike Macdonald, according to multiple reports. This will be Grubb's first NFL coaching job. He's been in the college ranks since 2005, most recently serving as Washington's OC for the last two seasons. Both of those Huskies teams finished top 13 in the nation in both total yards and points per game. They were especially lethal through the air, ranking first and then second in passing yards per game. Grubb joins a Seahawks squad with plenty of passing-game firepower in WRs D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. QB Geno Smith will very likely be back under center in 2024. We'll see if Seattle reunites Grubb with QB Michael Penix, who was at the helm for Washington the last two years.

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Seahawks QB Geno Smith (groin) put in a full week of practice and isn’t listed on the final injury report. He’s ready to go for Sunday’s game against a banged-up Titans defense. Smith checks in 12th in the Week 16 QB Rankings.

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Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Geno Smith, QB SEA
Dynasty MVP 165.6
Position Rank #51 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
575
899
1,257
Dynasty Write-up
After a breakout 2022, Smith's numbers predictably regressed in 2023. He lost his HC/OC in the offseason, but Seattle remains fully stocked at pass-catcher. Smith will turn 34 in October.
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