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Geno Smith - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsGeno Smith's Basic Stats

Geno Smith
ADP: 10.2
Bye: 5
Experience: 10 Yr(s)
Age: 32.9
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 221
40 Time: 4.59
Burst Score (Rank): 120.60 (86%)
Throw Velocity (Rank): 55.00 (50%)

Geno Smith's Weekly Outlook

Week 4 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
272.2 1.8 0.6 14.5 18.9
Weekly Writeup
Smith has done a decent job of getting things done so far this season. The health of the Seahawks' offensive line has made his life difficult, but that's no reason for you to be out on the veteran signal-caller this week. The Giants' defense ranks as the fifth-best matchup in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs this season. Roll out Geno as a low-end QB1 in lineups.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
261.2 1.8 0.7 16.1 18.6

Geno Smith's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#11 Quarterback

297.1 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
10.2 378.7/561 4179.4 28.6 10.7 57 258.2 4

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsGeno Smith's Preseason Player Analysis

View QB Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

Smith was one of the biggest surprises of 2022, playing awesome real-life football and finishing seventh among QBs in fantasy points per game.

He’s back as Seattle’s starter this year. He’ll operate in the same pass-leaning offense piloted by OC Shane Waldron. He returns WRs D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. And the Seahawks added WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba and RB Zach Charbonnet in the first two rounds of this spring’s draft.

The only concern with Smith is that his big 2022 season came out of nowhere.

There’s some one-hit wonder risk here. But Smith’s situation is so favorable that it’s tough to see him failing.

We like his odds of at least low-end QB1 production in 2023, with upside into the top 8.


What We Learned Last Year
  • In his first season as a full-time starter since 2014, Smith threw for 4,282 yards and 30 TDs.
  • Those marks ranked eighth and fourth league wide.
  • Smith added 366 rushing yards on 68 carries, both eighth among QBs.
  • He ranked fifth at his position in total fantasy points and seventh in points per game.
  • Smith finished as a top-5 fantasy QB in four different weeks and finished worse than QB13 just five times.
  • His ranks among 31 qualifying QBs in key efficiency metrics:
    • completion rate: first
    • adjusted completion rate: fifth
    • yards per attempt: ninth
    • adjusted yards per attempt: eighth
  • Smith ranked eighth among those 31 QBs in Pro Football Focus passing grade.
  • His PFF grade dipped from 84.8 from Weeks 1-8 to 64.2 from Weeks 9-18. The former mark ranked third among 33 qualifiers; the latter 24th out of 30.
  • Smith’s completion rate and yards per attempt also sunk from the first half of the season to the second – although his 67.5% completion rate and 7.3 yards per attempt over the final nine games were still solid marks.
  • He averaged 262.0 passing yards and 1.9 TDs per game from Week 9 on, ranking seventh among QBs in fantasy points per game.

What to Expect in 2023
  • Smith was set to hit free agency this offseason but agreed to a three-year, $75 million contract with the Seahawks before hitting the open market. Seattle could get out of the deal next offseason with about $14 million in cap savings, but Smith is at least locked in as the 2023 starter.
  • He returns to the same offense piloted by OC Shane Waldron that last year ranked:
    • 12th in pass rate
    • fifth in situation-neutral pass rate
    • eighth in pass rate over expected
  • The Seahawks return their top three targets from last year in D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Noah Fant. Those guys combined for 60% of the team’s receiving yards and 63% of the receiving TDs in 2022.
  • Seattle also added WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Round 1 of this spring’s draft and RB Zach Charbonnet in Round 2.
  • Smith-Njigba’s final college season was wrecked by a hamstring injury. But he exploded for 1,606 yards and nine TDs as a true sophomore in 2021, out-producing both Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. Smith-Njigba projects as a huge upgrade over last year’s No. 3 WR, Marquise Goodwin.
  • Charbonnet might also be an immediate upgrade as a passing-down back. He totaled 61 catches for 518 yards (8.5 YPC) over the last two years at UCLA.
  • Smith turns 33 in October.
  • A second-round pick way back in 2013, Smith flamed out as Jets starter in 2013 and 2014. He attempted just 196 passes over the next six seasons before last year’s breakout.

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Geno Smith, QB SEA

5:19pm EDT 9/17/23

Geno Smith bounces back

After an ugly opener, Seahawks QB Geno Smith bounced back with a strong showing in a Week 2 overtime win over the Lions. Smith completed 32 of 41 passes (78.0%) for 328 yards (8.0 YPA), two TDs, and 0 INTs. Both of the scores went to WR Tyler Lockett, including a 6-yard game-winner in overtime. This looked like the Geno Smith we saw last year, accurately distributing the ball to all levels of the field. The matchup and game environment certainly worked in his favor in this one. But Smith gets two more beatable defenses in the Panthers and Giants the next two weeks, before a Week 5 bye.

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Seahawks HC Pete Carroll said Wednesday that WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (wrist) will play vs. the Rams this weekend. JSN is just over two weeks removed from wrist surgery but "hasn't said a peep" about the issue and has "no hesitation," Carroll said. We'd try not to use the rookie in Week 1 fantasy lineups, but he could quickly emerge as a viable starter. Smith-Njigba's availability is also a boost for QB Geno Smith.

View all Jaxon Smith-Njigba Shark Bites »

The Seahawks and QB Geno Smith have reportedly reached an agreement on a three-year, $105 million contract extension. The 32-year-old finished the 2022 NFL season with Pro Bowl honors and the Comeback Player of the Year Award after he spent several seasons serving as a backup. It'll be tough for Smith to maintain his fantasy production from last year (QB9 in points per game with 17.9), but this deal locks him in with the likes of WRs D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett for the foreseeable future. We've bumped up Smith to QB18 in our dynasty rankings as a result of this news. He'll be a quality QB2 in superflex leagues. As for Metcalf and Lockett, their dynasty values are relatively the same. Continuity at QB does eliminate some of the risk associated with Metcalf in dynasty formats if anything. We don't yet know the details of Smith's contract and if the Seahawks would be able to maneuver out of the deal should the franchise choose to explore younger options at the position. But for now, it's great news for a player with a great story.

View all Geno Smith Shark Bites »

Seahawks QB Geno Smith told Sirius XM NFL Radio on Saturday that he’s in talks with the team on a new contract and that things are “looking very good.” We’ve been assuming Smith would re-sign, as the move just makes sense for both sides. We’ll be tracking the process, of course. If you’re jumping into early best-ball drafts — or managing your dynasty rosters — treat Smith as though he’ll start for Seattle in 2023. The length of his new contract should help clarify how long he might stay beyond that

View all Geno Smith Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Geno Smith, QB SEA
Dynasty MVP 203.5
Position Rank #30 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
693
1,031
1,733
Dynasty Write-up
Smith totally revived his career in 2022 with personal bests in YPA, QBR, and several other key metrics. The 32-year-old re-signed with a three-year deal in March, while Round 1 WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba arrived in April.
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