Greg Dulcich - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Hamstring injuries have limited Dulcich to just 12 games through two NFL seasons. Only two of those games came under HC Sean Payton last year, so it’s tough to say how he fits into this offense.

On the plus side, Dulcich scored as a top-10 fantasy TE in his 10 games as a rookie in 2022 and faces weak competition for the starting job this year.

We’ll keep a close eye on his role this summer, but Dulcich could be a prime sleeper to target at the end of fantasy drafts.

What We Learned Last Year

• Hamstring injuries have been the story of Dulcich’s NFL career so far.
  • He missed the first five games and last two games of his 2022 rookie season with hamstring injuries.
  • Dulcich appeared in just two games last year due to more hamstring trouble. He went down in the season opener and missed the next four games. Then he lasted just 11 snaps in his Week 6 return before hurting his hamstring again.
  • Dulcich was cleared to return from that injury in December – but then injured his foot in practice. (He later said that he has “bony feet” and that his cleat irritated his foot in a “really kinda freaky way.")
• Dulcich tailled 33 catches for 411 yards and two TDs in his 10 games back in 2022, ranking tenth among TEs in PPR points over that stretch.
• His 1.30 yards per route run ranked 24th among 44 TEs with 30+ targets that year. It was the ninth-best mark among 22 rookie TEs with 30+ targets from 2018 to 2022.
• Dulcich was the 80th pick of the 2022 NFL Draft after totaling 1,242 yards and 10 TDs on 68 catches over his final two seasons at UCLA.
• While a bit undersized at 6’4 and 243 pounds, Dulcich is a strong athlete, registering a 4.70-second 40 time with a 62nd-percentile vertical, 86th-percentile broad jump, and 75th-percentile 3-cone.

What to Expect in 2024

• Dulcich’s first order of business is staying healthy. Our Injury Predictor gives him a 78% chance of injury this season (sixth-highest among TEs) and a projection of 2.7 games missed (fifth most).
• It’s tough to say how Dulcich will fit into HC Sean Payton’s offense.
  • Payton said last June that Dulcich’s “menu” of routes will be “lengthy” and that he “has traits that are exciting.”
  • Dulcich split first-team pass routes with TE Adam Trautman in last year’s preseason.
  • Dulcich played just 32 regular-season snaps last year, but he encouragingly ran a pass route on 21 of them.
  • He drew a target on four of those 21 routes (19%).
• Denver did not add any significant competition for Dulcich this offseason, only returning TEs Adam Trautman and Lucas Krull.
  • Trautman played under Payton in New Orleans in 2020 and 2021 but hasn’t topped 27 catches in any of his four NFL seasons.
• Jimmy Graham had a handful of big seasons under Payton. But Payton’s offense has produced a top-12 TE in PPR points per game in just two of his 13 non-Graham seasons.
• Denver traded away WR Jerry Jeudy this offseason and added WRs Troy Franklin and Josh Reynolds. WRs Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims return. It’s an underwhelming group, giving Dulcich added target upside.
• The 2023 Broncos ranked 24th in pass rate and 27th in pass attempts. Expect another run-leaning attack this year, especially with rookie QB Bo Nix at the helm.