James Conner - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Conner was awesome last year. He finished seventh among RBs in PPR points per game while ranking near the top of the league in most rushing efficiency metrics.

There are concerns heading into 2024. Conner remains one of the bigger injury risks in fantasy football, turned 29 in May, and faces new competition from rookie RB Trey Benson.

But that’s all more than baked into his low-end RB2/high-end RB3 ADP. Conner is capable of smashing that price tag.

What We Learned Last Year

• Conner suffered a knee injury in Week 5 and missed the next four games.
• His scoring averages in 12 healthy games ranked:
  • 7th among RBs in PPR points
  • 5th in half-PPR points
  • 5th in non-PPR points
• Conner finished as a top-24 PPR RB in eight of his 12 outings. He finished top-12 six times, including five straight to close the season.
• No RB averaged more PPR points per game than Conner from Week 13 on.
• Conner’s 80.0 rushing yards per game were a career high and ranked fourth league-wide behind only Kyren Williams, Christian McCaffrey, and Nick Chubb.
• Among 49 RBs with 90+ carries last season, Conner ranked:
  • 6th in yards per carry
  • 4th in NFL Next Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt
  • 12th in yards after contact per attempt
  • 2nd in missed tackles forced per attempt
  • 5th in Pro Football Focus rushing grade
• Conner averaged just 2.1 catches and 12.7 receiving yards per game – both his lowest marks since his 2017 rookie season.
• He ran a route on 43% of Cardinals pass plays in his 13 games. That was well down from his 58% route rate in 2022 but up slightly from his 41% route rate in 2021.
• Conner’s target shares in games played over the last three years:
  • 2021 - 7.5%
  • 2022 - 11.1%
  • 2023 - 7.8%
• His 7.8% target share last year ranked 43rd among RBs.
• Conner ranked 32nd among 43 qualifying RBs in yards per route run, although he ranked 14th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade.
• Conner ranked ninth among RBs in PPR points per game in both 2021 and 2022.
• He ranks 11th among RBs in PPR points per game across the last three seasons.

What to Expect in 2024

• The biggest concern with Conner is durability.
  • He’s never played a full season, missing 24 total games over the last seven years.
  • Our Injury Predictor gives Conner an 88.4% chance of injury and 2.8 projected games missed this season. Those are the fifth- and 12th-highest marks among RBs.
• Conner turned 29 in May.
  • Our aging-curve data says to expect just 70-80% of peak production from a 29-year-old RB. That’s down from 80-90% at age-28.
• The Cardinals spent the 66th overall pick of this spring’s draft on RB Trey Benson. He totaled just 316 carries over the past two years at Florida State but averaged 6.1 yards per attempt with 23 TDs. The 6’0, 216-pounder ran a 4.39-second 40-yard dash and earned a 9.73 Relative Athletic Score at the Combine.
• OC Drew Petzing returns for his second season with the Cardinals. The run game was productive under Petzing last year, ranking fourth in rushing yards and ninth in rushing TDs. Some of that came from QB Kyler Murray, but Cardinals RBs combined for the 12th most rushing yards on 4.8 yards per carry.
• The 2023 Cardinals ranked:
  • 26th in Pro Football Focus run-blocking grades
  • 16th in adjusted line yards
  • 6th in ESPN’s run-block win rate
• OT Paris Johnson, C Hjalte Froholdt, and G Will Hernandez return as projected starters. Johnson played RT last year but is expected to move to LT this season. He ranked 55th among 70 qualifying OTs in Pro Football Focus’ 2023 run-blocking grades but is a candidate to take a step forward this year after going sixth overall in last year’s draft.
• The Cardinals signed OT Jonah Williams to a two-year, $30 million deal. He ranked 57th in PFF pass-blocking grades last season.
• Free-agent signee Evan Brown is expected to start at the other guard spot. He’s been an average run blocker throughout his career.
• Arizona’s offense could be significantly better this year with a healthy QB Kyler Murray and the addition of rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr.