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James Conner - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsJames Conner's Basic Stats

James Conner
ADP: N/A
Bye: 14
Experience: 6 Yr(s)
Age: 28.5
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 233
40 Time: 4.65
SPARQx (Rank): 105.00 (33%)
Burst Score (Rank): 105.80 (6%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.72 (18%)
Three Cone Drill (Rank): 7.41

James Conner's Weekly Outlook

Week 13 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
58.4 0.3 2.2 13.4 0 8.8
Weekly Writeup
Conner gets a shot at his former team, but the setup isn't exactly friendly for fantasy. Conner's Cardinals are implied for only 18 points as 5.5-point road underdogs. The veteran has also lost critical routes to newly acquired RB Michael Carter.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
53.4 0.3 2 13.8 0.1 9

James Conner's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#31 Running Back

144.2 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
Not Available 195 854.3 4.9 1.9 1.7 32.2 220.1 1.8

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsJames Conner's Preseason Player Analysis

View RB Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

You’re certainly not drafting Conner for efficiency. He was just OK in that department last year, turned 28 in May, and will be playing on what figures to be a subpar Cardinals offense.

But you are drafting Conner for volume. He averaged 15.2 carries and 4.8 targets in 11 healthy games last year and parlayed that into top-10 per-game fantasy production.

He doesn’t sit nearly that high in our 2023 RB Rankings. But he does rank significantly higher than he figures to go in your fantasy draft.

Highlight Conner as a value target.


What We Learned Last Year
  • Conner dealt with multiple injuries last year. He was knocked out of Week 2 with a left ankle injury, suffered a rib injury in Week 5 that cost him the next three games, and missed the season finale after hurting his shin in Week 17.
  • Conner played 55+% of Arizona’s offensive snaps in 11 games last year. His averages in those games:
    • 15.2 carries
    • 63.8 rushing yards
    • 0.64 rushing TDs
    • 4.8 targets (12.2% share)
    • 3.9 catches
    • 24.2 receiving yards
    • 0.09 receiving TDs
  • Conner ranked eighth among RBs in expected PPR points per game across those 11 games; 13th in expected non-PPR points.
  • He ranked seventh in actual PPR points per game and eighth in non-PPR.
  • He finished as a top-24 PPR RB in nine of those 11 games, including five top-12 finishes.
  • Conner was reasonably effective as a runner. Among 48 RBs with 90+ carries last year, he ranked:
    • 30th in Pro Football Focus rushing grade
    • 22nd in PFF’s Elusive Rating
    • 29th in NFL Next Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt
  • He fared worse in receiving metrics. Among 43 RBs with 30+ targets, Conner ranked:
    • 37th in PFF receiving grade
    • 30th in yards per route run

What to Expect in 2023
  • Conner returns to Arizona for the second season of his three-year deal. His $8.45 million in total cash in 2023 is 11th most among RBs.
  • The Cardinals return Keaontay Ingram and Corey Clement from last year’s backfield. They combined for 42 carries and 12 targets last year. Eno Benjamin, who ranked second on last year’s squad with 70 carries, is gone.
  • Conner again looks primed to operate as Arizona’s clear lead back.
  • He’ll play under a new coaching staff this season after HC Kliff Kingsbury was fired. The Cardinals hired former Eagles DC Jonathan Gannon as HC and named Drew Petzing OC. The 35-year-old Petzing spent the past 9 seasons working under Kevin Stefanski in Minnesota and then Cleveland but has no experience calling plays at any level.
  • QB Kyler Murray is working his way back from December’s torn ACL and meniscus in his right knee. He’s unlikely to be ready for the start of the season and could miss the first couple of months. QB Colt McCoy is the favorite to start for Arizona until Murray is ready.
  • This Cardinals team is expected to be bad. Their 4.5 win total at most sportsbooks is lowest in the league. That’s not good news for Conner’s rushing volume or TD upside. But his role in the passing game makes him relatively game-script-proof.
  • Conner turned 28 in May. According to our aging curve research, the average RB produces at 80% of his peak value at age 28.

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Emari Demercado, RB ARI

2:34pm EST 11/26/23

Emari Demercardo & Michael Carter active

Cardinals RB Emari Demercado (toe) is active for today’s game vs. the Rams. It’ll be his first action since Week 8. RB Michael Carter will also make his Arizona debut today, while RB Keaontay Ingram is a healthy scratch. James Conner should still operate as the Cardinals’ clear lead back.

View all Emari Demercado Shark Bites »

Cardinals RB Michael Carter is a healthy scratch for today's game vs. the Texans. Not a big surprise after he was acquired earlier this week. With RB Emari Demercado out with his toe injury, it'll be RBs Tony Jones and Keaontay Ingram behind James Conner.

View all Michael Carter Shark Bites »

The Cardinals have claimed former Jets RB Michael Carter off waivers. That gives Arizona a back who has averaged 2.4 receptions per game since he entered the league in 2021. Carter figures to work into some rushing role as well. But his greatest impact is likely to come in the passing game. The Cardinals had already favored pulling RB James Conner off the field for some passing situations, using Emari Demercado earlier this season. Week 10 found them giving the combo of Keaontay Ingram and Tony Jones Jr. nearly as many routes as Conner (13-10) in his return game. Carter brings more proven receiving ability than all of those RBs and could further cut into Conner's receiving. That doesn't doom the Arizona starter but hurts his weekly stability, especially when his team falls behind. Carter isn't likely to deliver much fantasy value the rest of the way and should be no more than a low-level PPR stash. You can drop Demercado if you haven't already. Conner remains a low-end RB2 option. Check our Week 11 RB rankings to see where he sits for the matchup with Houston.

View all Michael Carter Shark Bites »

Cardinals RB James Conner claimed 16 of 19 RB carries Sunday in his return from the knee injury that landed him on IR for four games. Conner took those for 73 yards (4.6 per rush) but watched QBs Kyler Murray and Clayton Tune claim the team's two rushing scores. No Cardinals RB drew a target, but Conner's 13 pass routes led the position and marked a 36% route rate. That last number marks potential trouble once RB Emari Demercado returns to health. But Conner can help fantasy lineups even just as lead rusher and part-time backfield receiver going forward. Arizona gets a solid RB-scoring matchup with Houston in Week 11.

View all James Conner Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

James Conner, RB ARI
Dynasty MVP 56.4
Position Rank #89 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
203
293
430
Dynasty Write-up
Conner still hasn’t played a full season. Yet when healthy in 2022, he stuck around as an RB1 — despite a stale Arizona offense. The downside here is his age (28) and a Cardinals offense with questions at HC and QB. (Kyler Murray is coming off a late-season ACL tear.) Conner is signed for two more seasons.
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