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Jaylen Warren - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsJaylen Warren's Basic Stats

Jaylen Warren
ADP: 8.4
Bye: 9
Experience: 3
Age: 25.6
Height: 5'8"
Weight: 215
40 Time: 4.55

Burst Score (Rank): 117.30 (42%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.55 (34%)
Three Cone Drill (Rank): 7.13

Jaylen Warren's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
46.2 0.24 3.2 22.8 0.1 8.5
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
32.8 0.2 2 15.1 0.1 6.2

Jaylen Warren's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#30 Running Back

191.9 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
8.4 158.9 749 3.88 0.1 1.7 51.1 366 1.57

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsJaylen Warren's Preseason Player Analysis

View RB Fantasy Rankings »

Bottom Line

Warren pulled much closer to Najee Harris in workload last year than where he finished 2022. If a new OC closes that gap further, then Warren has difference-making potential in fantasy. We’ll watch for signals on their usage but start with Warren as the better fantasy pick between them. Harris, however, remains the better non-PPR selection.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Warren just might have been one of the best-performing rushers of 2023. Here’s how he ranked among 49 RBs with 90+ carries:
    • third in yards per carry
    • third in yards after contact per attempt
    • third in NFL Next Gen Stats’ rush yards over expected per attempt
    • third in PFF elusive rating
    • seventh in PFF rushing grade
  • That all improved on a rookie season that already looked strong for Warren across those categories. And he outperformed teammate Najee Harris.
  • Here’s how they compared in a number of categories:

Warren – Category – Harris

  • 149 – Carries – 255
  • 5.3 – Yds/Car – 4.1
  • 74 – Targets – 38
  • 6.1 – Yds/Rec – 5.9
  • 1154 – Total Yds – 1205
  • 1.11 – RYOE/Car – 0.31
  • 3.68 – YAC/Car – 3.03
  • 210 – Touches – 284
  • 56 – Missed Tkls Forced – 53
  • Warren gained red-zone work but remained well behind Harris in that area.
    • Harris actually increased his shares of:
      • Red-zone carries (52.7% to 59.2%)
      • Carries inside the 10 (53.7% to 59.0%)
      • Carries inside the 5 (37.5% to 43.8%)
  • Warren tied for fifth among all RBs in targets. He ranked fifth in receptions and 13th in receiving yards.

What to Expect in 2024

  • The biggest change in Pittsburgh comes at OC, where Matt Canada’s gone and Arthur Smith’s in. But we’re not sure that’s going to make a huge difference for the backfield.
  • Smith served as Titans OC 2019-20. They ranked 31st in neutral-situation pass rate. He spent three years as Falcons HC. They ranked 30th over that span.
    • The Steelers ranked 32nd last year; 25th across Canada’s three-year tenure.
  • The biggest question for Warren will be whether his continued efficiency can siphon further work from Najee Harris.
    • Warren got a big bump in work share in his second season, going from 6.1% of Steelers opportunities (carries + targets) to 13.1%.
      • That jumped him rom 66th among RBs to 39th.
    • Harris felt just some of that. He dipped from 18.4% opportunity share in 2022 (13th among RBs) to 17.2% in 2023 (20th).
  • Warren edged Harris by 0.1 fantasy points per game even while continuing to cede the total-touch lead. Credit his big lead on the receiving front. We see no reason that shouldn’t continue.
  • The red zone will be the toughest area for Warren to steal work from Harris, especially the closer Pittsburgh gets to the goal line. Warren’s not small (listed 215 pounds at 5’8), but he’s more than 20 pounds shy of Harris.

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Najee Harris, RB PIT

1:14pm EDT 5/17/24

Najee Harris lighter

Steelers RB Najee Harris has dropped weight this offseason. His trainer estimates that he's at 235 pounds now -- seven pounds lighter than his listed weight. Harris has upped his training time and cleaned up his diet.

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The Steelers have declined the fifth-year option on RB Najee Harris' rookie contract. Harris would have counted about $6.8 million vs. the salary cap had the team exercised his option, so it's not a shocking development. But it's notable that Pittsburgh would rather let him hit the open market than pay what would be the No. 12 RB salary in the league by this year's average annual values. Harris has seen his carries per game and receptions per game decline each of the past two years, while also watching Jaylen Warren gain yards at a more efficient pace. It'll be interesting to see whether Pittsburgh plans any further decline for Harris' 2024 workload in the first season under new OC Arthur Smith. As it stands, Harris and Warren both look fine at best ball ADP. Feel free to mix either player (or both) in to your best ball drafting.

View all Najee Harris Shark Bites »

The Steelers signed WR Cordarrelle Patterson to a two-year, $6 million deal, NFL Network reports. He's reuniting with OC Arthur Smith, who coached Patterson in Atlanta the past three seasons. Patterson averaged 10.2 carries and 3.4 targets per game across his first two years with Smith but just 3.6 carries and 0.9 targets per game last year. That was largely due to the arrival of RB Bijan Robinson -- but Patterson also struggled to just 3.6 yards per carry and 4.2 yards per catch. He turned 33 earlier this month. Patterson is unlikely to be a fantasy asset this season, although he could siphon some work from RB Najee Harris and especially RB Jaylen Warren in the passing game.

View all Cordarrelle Patterson Shark Bites »

The Steelers are set to hire Arthur Smith as their new OC, according to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero. Smith, of course, is coming off a baffling and underwhelming three-year tenure as Falcons HC, compiling a 21-30 record and oftentimes mismanaging his offensive talent. Smith, though, was much more successful as Titans OC in 2019 and 2020. Both of those teams ranked top-12 in both total yards and points, leaning on RB Derrick Henry to finish top-3 in rushing yards both years. We'd expect Smith to bring a run-heavy offense to Pittsburgh -- especially considering the team's questions at QB.

View all Najee Harris Shark Bites »

The Steelers-Bills game originally scheduled for 1 pm ET on Sunday has been moved to 4:30 pm ET on Monday. Buffalo is expecting heavy snow and wind gusts up to 60 mph on Sunday. The forecast for Monday calls for light snow, sustained winds around 15 mph, and gusts up to 30 mph. That's still tough weather for the passing and kicking games -- but significantly better than it would have been on Sunday. We're adjusting our projections for this game.

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Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

Jaylen Warren, RB PIT
Dynasty MVP 70.7
Position Rank #59 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
244
372
565
Dynasty Write-up
Warren tallied 5.3 YPC in 2023, third most among RBs with 100+ attempts. He figures to remain in a rotational role alongside Najee Harris this fall. They'll both pick up a new system led by OC Arthur Smith.
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