Jaylen Warren - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Warren pulled much closer to Najee Harris in workload last year than where he finished 2022. If a new OC closes that gap further, then Warren has difference-making potential in fantasy. We’ll watch for signals on their usage but start with Warren as the better fantasy pick between them. Harris, however, remains the better non-PPR selection.

What We Learned Last Year

• Warren just might have been one of the best-performing rushers of 2023. Here’s how he ranked among 49 RBs with 90+ carries:
  • third in yards per carry
  • third in yards after contact per attempt
  • third in NFL Next Gen Stats’ rush yards over expected per attempt
  • third in PFF elusive rating
  • seventh in PFF rushing grade
• That all improved on a rookie season that already looked strong for Warren across those categories. And he outperformed teammate Najee Harris.
• Here’s how they compared in a number of categories:

*MTF = PFF's Missed Tackles Forced

• Warren gained red-zone work but remained well behind Harris in that area.
  • Harris actually increased his shares of:
    • Red-zone carries (52.7% to 59.2%)
    • Carries inside the 10 (53.7% to 59.0%)
    • Carries inside the 5 (37.5% to 43.8%)
• Warren tied for fifth among all RBs in targets. He ranked fifth in receptions and 13th in receiving yards.

What to Expect in 2024

• The biggest change in Pittsburgh comes at OC, where Matt Canada’s gone and Arthur Smith’s in. But we’re not sure that’s going to make a huge difference for the backfield.
• Smith served as Titans OC 2019-20. They ranked 31st in neutral-situation pass rate. He spent three years as Falcons HC. They ranked 30th over that span.
  • The Steelers ranked 32nd last year; 25th across Canada’s three-year tenure.
• The biggest question for Warren will be whether his continued efficiency can siphon further work from Najee Harris.
  • Warren got a big bump in work share in his second season, going from 6.1% of Steelers opportunities (carries + targets) to 13.1%.
    • That jumped him rom 66th among RBs to 39th.
  • Harris felt just some of that. He dipped from 18.4% opportunity share in 2022 (13th among RBs) to 17.2% in 2023 (20th).
• Warren edged Harris by 0.1 fantasy points per game even while continuing to cede the total-touch lead. Credit his big lead on the receiving front. We see no reason that shouldn’t continue.
• The red zone will be the toughest area for Warren to steal work from Harris, especially the closer Pittsburgh gets to the goal line. Warren’s not small (listed 215 pounds at 5’8), but he’s more than 20 pounds shy of Harris.