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Joe Burrow - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Joe Burrow
CIN

QB CIN

#13 Quarterback

369 Projected Points

ADP: 10.4
Bye: 10
Experience: 1 Yr(s)
Age: 24
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 221
40 Time: 4.76

Weekly Outlook

3d Projection

Med Floor

13

DS Projection

18.6

Consensus

38 other sites
20

Med Ceiling

24.2

Rest of
Season

21.2

Week 3 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
250 1.7 1 3 18.6
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
266 1.7 0.6 11 21.2
Week 1
If you drafted Burrow, you have to love a 261-yard, 2-TD opener. He completed 74% of his passes in the win over Minnesota, with the biggest highlight a 50-yard TD to Ja’Marr Chase.

There’s no need to boost Burrow beyond what those numbers say, so let’s focus on a few reasons to temper excitement.

The Bengals checked in last in the league in situation-neutral pass rate for the week, according to RBSDM.com. Perhaps they were just easing in their repaired QB. But if that continues, it would lower Burrow’s fantasy ceiling going forward.

He also took 5 sacks. That might actually make his blocking look worse than it was, though. According to Pro Football Focus, Burrow checked in just 13th among starters (excluding Ryan Fitzpatrick) in pressure rate. He led the league in percentage of pressures that turned into sacks, though. Burrow’s 45.5% mark there beat the nearest QB by 10.2 percentage points. Another 5 QBs sat within 10.2 percentage points behind #2 Ryan Tannehill.

Pair that stat with Burrow’s mere 1 rush for 2 yards, and we see a guy with compromised mobility. That certainly doesn’t doom Burrow; but we shouldn’t expect any of the rushing boost from him that we hoped for in his rookie season.

Ultimately, there’s enough to like here to have Burrow regularly in the QB12-QB18 mix. Week 2 takes him to visit a Chicago defense that didn’t pressure Matthew Stafford much in Week 1 and looked terrible in the secondary.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • The top pick in the 2020 draft, Burrow averaged 276.1 passing yards and 1.3 passing TDs per game.
  • Quietly, he popped in 3 rushing scores to go along with 142 yards.
  • Volume was huge here, as missed time from Joe Mixon and a bad defense put Burrow on a full-season pace of 647 attempts.
  • Burrow went down in Week 11 with a significant knee injury (ACL/MCL tear, other ligament damage). His doctor does expect Burrow to be a full-go for Week 1.
  • He finished as a QB1 in 2 of 9 full games, maxing out as the QB3 Week 7 vs. Cleveland.
  • Burrow’s TD rate of 3.2% ranked near the bottom of the league.
  • Burrow struggled on deep balls— quite a departure from his performance at LSU. His 20.8% adjusted completion rate ranked 41st among 44 QBs with 10+ deep attempts.
  • A.J. Green was targeted heavily (and inefficiently) on those deep passes. Replacing the veteran with a rare talent like Ja’Marr Chase should fuel instant progress.
  • Burrow played behind a bad O-line; Pro Football Focus graded Cincy 27th in pass blocking.
  • Burrow faced pressure on 32.2% of his dropbacks — 16th most among 30 QBs with 100+ dropbacks under pressure. He struggled to deliver with the 2nd lowest adjusted completion rate among those same 30 passers.
  • Over the offseason, the Bengals added O-line help in veteran RT Riley Reiff and rookie OG Jackson Carman. Reiff is the only one guaranteed to start, though.
  • The Bengals passed on Penei Sewell in Round 1 to select Chase, Burrow’s former LSU teammate.
  • A rare talent like Chase — paired with Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins — gives this offense a high-end 3-WR set.
  • The Bengals led the league in 3-WR sets last year (76%), and that number should only stabilize in ’21.
  • Cincy provides continuity for Burrow, returning the same HC (Zac Taylor), OC (Brian Callahan) and QB coach (Dan Pitcher). 2021 does set up as a make-or-break year for Taylor’s staff.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line

A prolific college passer in 2019, Burrow flashed high-end ability at times during his rookie season. Overall, though, he hit some rough patches due to a leaky O-line and a major, season-ending knee injury.

While the O-line remains a question mark, there’s optimism that it’ll improve in year 2. Burrow’s health will bear watching in the coming months, but the early word is that the knee will be fine for Week 1. Whether he’s at pre-injury levels mentally or physically right away remains to be seen.

Regardless, over a 17-game season, Burrow will bring tantalizing upside because of Cincinnati’s pass catchers. He’s certainly a candidate to jump up into QB1 territory.


Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

After a rough start to training camp, Bengals QB Joe Burrow has "been stacking one quality practice on top of another over the past 10 days," Sports Illustrated's James Rapien writes. Burrow went 11 of 15 with 3 TDs in team drills on Monday, per Rapien, and also scrambled for a pair of 1st downs. That last note is especially encouraging for a guy returning from a serious knee injury. Burrow isn't going to play this preseason, so these practice reports are all we'll get before Week 1. He's probably not a guy you'll want to trust in that opener vs. the Vikings -- but Burrow could certainly be an every-week QB1 by October.

View all Joe Burrow Shark Bites »

The Bengals offense has struggled early in training camp, according to The Athletic. QB Joe Burrow, in particular, has struggled with turnovers and accuracy. "It’s just not good right now," insiders Jay Morrison and Paul Dehner write. "Throws that felt like layups last year are dropping harmlessly away from receivers or easily broken up by multiple defenders." It's early August. And Burrow, of course, is returning from last year's multi-ligament injury. So we're not hitting the panic button yet. But this has certainly become a situation to monitor over the next month.

View all Joe Burrow Shark Bites »

Before the 1st practice of Bengals training camp Wednesday, QB Joe Burrow said: “I’m just about 100 percent. Feeling great, still getting stronger in my legs. Going to continue to lift throughout camp, keep getting stronger, so I just feel great going into Week One.” Burrow also said that he wants to play in a preseason game, but we'll see what the team decides to do. We wouldn't be surprised if they deny the franchise QB that wish. Still, signs continue to look positive for the health of Burrow's knee heading into his 2nd season.

View all Joe Burrow Shark Bites »

Bengals QB Joe Burrow (knee) will participate on day 1 of training camp. He’s avoided the PUP or NFI list, per NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. If his knee continues to cooperate, there’s no question Burrow could pay off his QB13 FFPC ADP. See where he sits in our 2021 QB rankings.

View all Joe Burrow Shark Bites »

Bengals QB Joe Burrow expects his surgically repaired left knee to be back to 100% for the start of training camp. "The knee still has a little ways to go, but my upper body, my right leg, everything else feels better than it ever has before," Burrow said. "When I'm on the field and executing, I'm playing better than I ever have before. So I'll continue the program we were on and get back to 100% before camp." Burrow was able to get on the field for minicamp. And while we thought he still looked a bit hobbled, he was moving around and throwing with nice velocity. We'll continue to keep a close eye on his progress leading up to Week 1.

View all Joe Burrow Shark Bites »

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