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Joe Burrow - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsJoe Burrow's Basic Stats

Joe Burrow
ADP: 5.11
Bye: 10
Experience: 2 Yr(s)
Age: 25.5
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 221
40 Time: 4.82

Joe Burrow's 2022 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#11 Quarterback

343.3 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
5.11 413.7/604 4922.6 35.1 13.2 49 161.8 3

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsJoe Burrow's Preseason Player Analysis

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What You Need to Know:

  • Burrow ranked just 15th in pass attempts last season but 6th in passing yards. He delivered a league-high 8.9 yards per attempt.
  • His 6.5% passing-TD rate trailed only Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford. The league average tends to hover around 5%.
  • There are, however, 8 active QBs who have delivered multiple seasons of 6+% TD rate. That includes:
    • 8 such seasons for Russell Wilson
    • 7 for Aaron Rodgers
    • 6 for Tom Brady
    • 3 for Ryan Tannehill
    • 3 for Matthew Stafford
    • 2 for Patrick Mahomes
    • 2 for Lamar Jackson
    • 2 for Deshaun Watson
  • The 2021 Bengals increased their passing lean during the season. The 1st 3 games found them ranking last in the league twice in neutral-situation pass rate, according to RBSDM.com, and 16th the other week. Tee Higgins returned in Week 5 from 2 games lost to a shoulder injury. From that game through the playoffs, Cincinnati went 8th most pass-heavy in neutral situations.
  • Cincinnati’s pass rate over that span: 55.5%. Each of the Bengals’ 4 playoff games found the team passing at a rate of 58.8% or higher in neutral situations.
  • Burrow registered 7 games with Pro Football Focus passing grades of 80+ last season. Five of those occurred in Week 12 or later.
  • He tallied 1 such game across 10 appearances as a 2020 rookie.
  • Burrow tore his left ACL on Nov. 22 of his rookie season.
  • His Week 12 game in 2021 came on Nov. 28.
  • From Week 1 through Week 11 last season, Burrow ranked 14th among QBs in total fantasy points.
  • From Week 12 through Week 17, he ranked 2nd. (Burrow sat out the regular-season finale.)


Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

There’s regression potential in Burrow’s 6.5% TD rate from last year, as well as his league-leading 70.4% completion rate and 8.9 yards per pass attempt. But we could also see the Bengals increase their passing volume. And we could very well see more of the sharper Burrow that we got over the 2nd half of last year. Now more than a year removed from a double-ligament tear in his left knee, Burrow has the skills, draft pedigree and surrounding talent to settle in among the league’s perennial top passing producers. The biggest issue with valuing him in fantasy is that you likely won’t get a discount. As of this writing, he sits 7th among QBs in FFPC best-ball ADP, which seems fair.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Joe Burrow, QB CIN

10:48am EST 2/16/22

Burrow has MCL sprain

Bengals HC Zac Taylor said Wednesday that QB Joe Burrow sprained his right MCL in the Super Bowl. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport hears that Burrow will not need surgery. The injury shouldn't be a factor in 2022, but we'll keep an eye on it.

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NFL Insider Ian Rapoport tweeted Tuesday that Joe Burrow suffered a knee sprain in the Super Bowl. Burrow didn’t miss any time in Sunday’s loss, but you could tell he was in pain. While Burrow will need rehab, Rapoport writes that the injury “shouldn’t dramatically alter his offseason.” Look for Cincy to pour more money and draft picks into the O-line over the coming months.

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Bengals QB Joe Burrow, WR Tee Higgins and K Evan McPherson are inactive for today’s game vs. the Browns.WR Ja’Marr Chase is active but might play just long enough to get the 12 yards he needs to set Cincinnati’s single-season franchise record.TE C.J. Uzomah (knee, hip) is surprisingly active after missing practice all week.

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Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Joe Burrow, QB CIN
Dynasty MVP 346.4
Position Rank #8 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
1,067
1,809
3,218
Dynasty Write-up
Burrow took a major year 2 leap — and he did so after his rookie year ended with a devastating knee injury. He’s positioned for long-term success alongside Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

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