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Joe Burrow - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsJoe Burrow's Basic Stats

Joe Burrow
ADP: 5.10
Bye: 12
Experience: 4
Age: 27.6
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 215
40 Time: 4.82

Joe Burrow's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
282.3 1.99 0.8 12.5 20.5
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
289.2 2.2 0.8 13.3 21.3

Joe Burrow's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#6 Quarterback

305.7 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
5.10 384/564 4234.5 29.85 12 54 187.5 3

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsJoe Burrow's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

A healthy Burrow remains a strong fantasy play. He performed at a top-8 level during last season’s short span of full strength and should be a good bet for that range in 2024. He’s appropriately priced at current QB7 in best ball ADP. Burrow makes for a good target when he slips beyond that level.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Burrow perhaps should have waited longer before returning from his summer calf injury.
    • He strained his right calf in a July 27 practice.
    • He returned August 30 and started the season on time.
    • But he aggravated the injury in Week 2 and did not look like himself through at least the first four weeks.
  • Burrow completed 57.6% of his passes over the first four games, averaging just 182 yards and 0.5 TD passes per game.
    • He ran for 3 yards on eight attempts in that span.
  • The next five games presented normal Burrow.
    • He completed 74.1% of throws over that span.
    • Burrow averaged 296 yards and 2.4 TDs per game.
    • He added 15.6 yards per game on the ground.
    • Burrow ranked seventh among QBs in fantasy points per game over that span and finished four of five weeks among the top 8.
  • Unfortunately, the QB tore a ligament in his right (throwing) wrist in Week 11 and missed the rest of the year. (He was back throwing by spring workouts.)

What to Expect in 2024

  • Barring another summer injury, we should get normal Burrow from the start.
  • His return to throwing in OTAs says we shouldn’t worry about that wrist being a 2024 issue. Burrow has also said this offseason: “I’m growing and learning how to handle my body” – as in when to push through a minor injury and when to rest it.
  • The Bengals lost their No. 2 and 4 players in targets from last season, but that’s not as significant as it might seem.
    • WR Tyler Boyd finished second, thanks to Tee Higgins missing five games. Boyd signed with the Titans on just a one-year deal worth “up to $4.5 million,” so the Bengals certainly could have brought him back if they wanted.
    • The team traded RB Joe Mixon to the Texans (when on the verge of releasing him). Mixon’s 64 targets ranked fourth behind:
      • Ja’Marr Chase (145)
      • Boyd (98)
      • Higgins (76)
  • Chase obviously returns. And Cincinnati franchise-tagged Higgins to keep him off the market. The Bengals also drafted WR Jermaine Burton in Round 3 – an upside upgrade over Boyd.
    • Burton arrives as an outside, downfield threat – as opposed to Boyd’s short-range, slot-based game.
    • Burton averaged 18.0 yards per catch across four college seasons split between Georgia and Alabama. He ranked among the top 3 in receiving yards every year and led each of his two Crimson Tide squads in that category.
    • We’ll see exactly what Burton’s rookie-year role will look like, but he adds explosiveness that boosts Burrow’s upside.
  • The Bengals also signed TE Mike Gesicki and RB Zack Moss in free agency. Neither is a thrilling addition on his own, but each has proved he can produce at times. Moss figures to be the primary Mixon replacement. Gesicki can assume some of the role Boyd vacated.
  • Cincinnati lost OC Brian Callahan to the Titans (HC). We’ll see about any impact from that, but there’s no reason to worry.
    • New OC Dan Pitcher has been on the staff since 2016, three years before HC Zac Taylor arrived. Pitcher has coached Bengals QBs since 2020, Burrow’s rookie year. And Taylor has been the play caller.

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Ja'Marr Chase, WR CIN

2:35pm EDT 7/8/24

Huge Expectations For Ja'Marr Chase In Year Four

The Athletic’s Paul Dehner Jr. sees a career-best year in store for Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase. “The position-less nature of the rest of the receiver and tight end group allows the Bengals to move Chase around more and dial up more explosive plays from different alignments,” Dehner wrote. “While his overall usage might not go up, the aggressiveness of his targets should and sets up for the three-time Pro Bowler and 2021 Offensive Rookie of the Year to enjoy his best season yet.” Last year, Chase ran 76% of his routes from out wide. His average depth of target (aDOT) sunk to a career-low 9.1 yards. Of course, Joe Burrow made only 10 appearances – his fewest since 2020.

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Bengals QB Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending wrist injury in Week 11 of last season. Surgery followed for the former top pick. Now, according to NFL Network’s Bridget Condon, the Bengals are comfortable with his health outlook for 2024. Note that Burrow’s only one season removed from finishing top-five in passing yards, TDs, and completion rate. 2022 also turned up a QB4 fantasy finish (16 games).

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Bengals WR Tee Higgins was not present for the start of minicamp on Tuesday, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Higgins has still not signed his franchise tag and requested a trade (again) in late April.

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Bengals QB Joe Burrow was on the field and throwing as OTAs opened on Monday, according to the team's official site. Burrow resumed throwing earlier this offseason after undergoing right wrist surgery in late November, but this was the first time he did it in a team setting. He looked very close to 100% by all accounts, throwing with his usual velocity.

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Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Joe Burrow, QB CIN
Dynasty MVP 281.9
Position Rank #11 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
865
1,414
2,744
Dynasty Write-up
Burrow set a career-high in total TDs in 2022 — despite several missed games from WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Burrow signed a long-term deal in September but battled a lingering calf injury early in the season. Then in November, he suffered a season-ending ligament tear in his thumb. On the bright side: Tee Higgins might remain in Cincy, at least via the franchise tag.
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