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Joe Burrow - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsJoe Burrow's Basic Stats

Joe Burrow
ADP: N/A
Bye: 10
Experience: 2 Yr(s)
Age: 26.1
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 221
40 Time: 4.82

Joe Burrow's Weekly Outlook

This is a regular season feature

We’ll have detailed analysis of this player’s performance added here after each week’s game. Weekly outlooks are posted Tuesday at 1pm EST each week.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Joe Burrow's 2022 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#10 Quarterback

317.1 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
Not Available 413.7/604 4722.6 31 15.2 49 171.8 3.7

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsJoe Burrow's Preseason Player Analysis

View QB Fantasy Rankings »

What You Need to Know:

  • Burrow ranked just 15th in pass attempts last season but 6th in passing yards. He delivered a league-high 8.9 yards per attempt.
  • His 6.5% passing-TD rate trailed only Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford. The league average tends to hover around 5%.
  • There are, however, 8 active QBs who have delivered multiple seasons of 6+% TD rate. That includes:
    • 8 such seasons for Russell Wilson
    • 7 for Aaron Rodgers
    • 6 for Tom Brady
    • 3 for Ryan Tannehill
    • 3 for Matthew Stafford
    • 2 for Patrick Mahomes
    • 2 for Lamar Jackson
    • 2 for Deshaun Watson
  • The 2021 Bengals increased their passing lean during the season. The 1st 3 games found them ranking last in the league twice in neutral-situation pass rate, according to RBSDM.com, and 16th the other week. Tee Higgins returned in Week 5 from 2 games lost to a shoulder injury. From that game through the playoffs, Cincinnati went 8th most pass-heavy in neutral situations.
  • Cincinnati’s pass rate over that span: 55.5%. Each of the Bengals’ 4 playoff games found the team passing at a rate of 58.8% or higher in neutral situations.
  • Burrow registered 7 games with Pro Football Focus passing grades of 80+ last season. Five of those occurred in Week 12 or later.
  • He tallied 1 such game across 10 appearances as a 2020 rookie.
  • Burrow tore his left ACL on Nov. 22 of his rookie season.
  • His Week 12 game in 2021 came on Nov. 28.
  • From Week 1 through Week 11 last season, Burrow ranked 14th among QBs in total fantasy points.
  • From Week 12 through Week 17, he ranked 2nd. (Burrow sat out the regular-season finale.)


Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

There’s regression potential in Burrow’s 6.5% TD rate from last year, as well as his league-leading 70.4% completion rate and 8.9 yards per pass attempt. But we could also see the Bengals increase their passing volume. And we could very well see more of the sharper Burrow that we got over the 2nd half of last year. Now more than a year removed from a double-ligament tear in his left knee, Burrow has the skills, draft pedigree and surrounding talent to settle in among the league’s perennial top passing producers. The biggest issue with valuing him in fantasy is that you likely won’t get a discount. As of this writing, he sits 7th among QBs in FFPC best-ball ADP, which seems fair.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Cincinnati Bengals, TQB CIN

4:46pm EST 1/16/23

LT dislocated kneecap vs. Ravens

Bengals LT Jonah Williams dislocated his left kneecap in Sunday night's win over the Ravens, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. HC Zac Taylor called Williams' status "week to week" on Monday. That suggests the LT will have trouble getting back in time for Sunday's game at Buffalo -- but that he has a chance to return if Cincinnati continues to advance. Reserve G Jackson Carman filled in against Baltimore after Williams went down. QB Joe Burrow still drew pressure on just 28.2% of his dropbacks for the game, according to Pro Football Focus, the 4th lowest rate among the 10 starting QBs so far in these playoffs.

View all Cincinnati Bengals Shark Bites »

Bengals QB Joe Burrow completed 23 of 32 passes for 209 yards and 1 TD in Sunday’s win over Baltimore. He leaned heavily on Ja’Marr Chase, who finished with 9-84-1 on a 37.5% target share. Burrow added a 1-yard TD on a sneak. Next up is a must-see matchup at Buffalo (Sunday, 3PM ET). The Bills exited the regular season sitting 2nd toughest vs. enemy QBs.

View all Joe Burrow Shark Bites »

The NFL announced that the Bills-Bengals game will not be rescheduled. It's officially a no-contest and players do not receive any stats for the game. Commissioner Roger Goodell is also recommending that the AFC Championship Game be played at a neutral site if the Bills or Bengals make it there as the road team. All 32 teams will vote on that proposal on Friday.

Update: The NFL owners have approved these changes to the playoff setup.

View all Josh Allen Shark Bites »

The NFL announced Tuesday that it won't resume the Bills-Bengals game -- halted by S Damar Hamlin's collapse -- this week. The league added that it will keep the Week 18 schedule intact and that no decision has yet been made on how to treat Monday night's game going forward. That means fantasy football leagues and contest providers will either have to wait for further word on the resumption of that contest or figure out alternate solutions. We'll certainly be watching for updates on that front -- as well as, of course, any updates on Hamlin's condition.

View all Josh Allen Shark Bites »

Bengals QB Joe Burrow went 40-of-52 passing for 375 yards and 3 TDs (plus 2 INTs) in Saturday's win over the Patriots. Cincinnati dropped back on 65.5% of offensive plays despite jumping to a big early lead, facing a defense that has played the run tough. Burrow's scores went to WR Trenton Irwin (2) and WR Tee Higgins, who led the team with 128 yards on 8 catches. WR Ja'Marr Chase matched Higgins forr the reception lead, going for 79 yards. Cincinnati hosts the Bills in Week 17.

View all Joe Burrow Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Joe Burrow, QB CIN
Dynasty MVP 330.4
Position Rank #9 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
986
1,671
3,281
Dynasty Write-up
Burrow set a career-high in total TDs this past season — despite several missed games from WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Fortunately, that duo will play together for at least one more season. Burrow, meanwhile, is a candidate for a new (and lucrative) contract this offseason.
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