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Joe Burrow - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Joe Burrow
CIN

QB CIN

#13 Quarterback

369 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 10
Experience: 1 Yr(s)
Age: 24
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 221
40 Time: 4.76

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#13 Quarterback

369 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
Not Available 406/615 4674 28 10 215

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

High Floor

310

DS Projection

369

Consensus

38 other sites
319.8

High Ceiling

457.6

Ceiling Likelihood

Medium
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

-The top pick in the 2020 draft, Burrow averaged 276.1 passing yards and 1.3 passing TDs per game.

-Quietly, he popped in 3 rushing scores to go along with 142 yards.

-Volume was huge here, as missed time from Joe Mixon and a bad defense put Burrow on a full-season pace of 647 attempts.

-Burrow went down in Week 11 with a significant knee injury (ACL/MCL tear, other ligament damage). His doctor does expect Burrow to be a full-go for Week 1.

-He finished as a QB1 in 2 of 9 full games, maxing out as the QB3 Week 7 vs. Cleveland.

-Burrow’s TD rate of 3.2% ranked near the bottom of the league.

-Burrow struggled on deep balls— quite a departure from his performance at LSU. His 20.8% adjusted completion rate ranked 41st among 44 QBs with 10+ deep attempts.

-A.J. Green was targeted heavily (and inefficiently) on those deep passes. Replacing the veteran with a rare talent like Ja’Marr Chase should fuel instant progress.

-Burrow played behind a bad O-line; Pro Football Focus graded Cincy 27th in pass blocking.

-Burrow faced pressure on 32.2% of his dropbacks — 16th most among 30 QBs with 100+ dropbacks under pressure. He struggled to deliver with the 2nd lowest adjusted completion rate among those same 30 passers.

-Over the offseason, the Bengals added O-line help in veteran RT Riley Reiff and rookie OG Jackson Carman. Reiff is the only one guaranteed to start, though.

-The Bengals passed on Penei Sewell in Round 1 to select Chase, Burrow’s former LSU teammate.

-A rare talent like Chase — paired with Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins — gives this offense a high-end 3-WR set.

-The Bengals led the league in 3-WR sets last year (76%), and that number should only stabilize in ’21.

-Cincy provides continuity for Burrow, returning the same HC (Zac Taylor), OC (Brian Callahan) and QB coach (Dan Pitcher). 2021 does set up as a make-or-break year for Taylor’s staff.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line

A prolific college passer in 2019, Burrow flashed high-end ability at times during his rookie season. Overall, though, he hit some rough patches due to a leaky O-line and a major, season-ending knee injury.

While the O-line remains a question mark, there’s optimism that it’ll improve in year 2. Burrow’s health will bear watching in the coming months, but the early word is that the knee will be fine for Week 1. Whether he’s at pre-injury levels mentally or physically right away remains to be seen.

Regardless, over a 17-game season, Burrow will bring tantalizing upside because of Cincinnati’s pass catchers. He’s certainly a candidate to jump up into QB1 territory.


 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Bengals QB Joe Burrow (knee) will participate on day 1 of training camp. He’s avoided the PUP or NFI list, per NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. If his knee continues to cooperate, there’s no question Burrow could pay off his QB13 FFPC ADP. See where he sits in our 2021 QB rankings.

View all Joe Burrow Shark Bites »

Bengals QB Joe Burrow expects his surgically repaired left knee to be back to 100% for the start of training camp. "The knee still has a little ways to go, but my upper body, my right leg, everything else feels better than it ever has before," Burrow said. "When I'm on the field and executing, I'm playing better than I ever have before. So I'll continue the program we were on and get back to 100% before camp." Burrow was able to get on the field for minicamp. And while we thought he still looked a bit hobbled, he was moving around and throwing with nice velocity. We'll continue to keep a close eye on his progress leading up to Week 1.

View all Joe Burrow Shark Bites »

Bengals QB Joe Burrow (knee) participated in OTAs on Tuesday and spoke to reporters afterwards. He said his surgically repaired left knee is at "80-85%." Burrow believes his arm is as strong as ever and is now working on getting comfortable with movement in the pocket and off-platform throws. He's wearing a knee brace and is still testing out different options. Burrow's status will be 1 of the bigger fantasy storylines of the summer. If healthy, he and this Cincinnati offense have a chance to explode.

View all Joe Burrow Shark Bites »

The doctor who operated on the left knee of Bengals QB Joe Burrow says Burrow is "on track for full go for start of the season," according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. Burrow, of course, tore the ACL in that knee, along with other damage. Dr. Neal ElAttrache has been working with Cincinnati's medical staff through the recovery, though, and says the QB is "well into the return to performance phase of his recovery. With him already performing this way, it's 'all systems go' for the start of the season." That's obviously good news for the entire Bengals offense and makes it a little easier to take Burrow in current best-ball drafting.

View all Joe Burrow Shark Bites »

According to HC Zac Taylor, Bengals QB Joe Burrow is "on pace to do all the things that we were hoping he'd do." The 2nd-year QB underwent left knee surgery to repair a torn ACL and MCL on December 2. Bottom line: Week 1 still looks like a realistic return date for Burrow. He's a top-15 guy in our 2021 QB rankings.

View all Joe Burrow Shark Bites »

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