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Joe Burrow - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Joe Burrow
CIN

QB CIN

#13 Quarterback

369 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 10
Experience: 1 Yr(s)
Age: 25
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 221
40 Time: 4.76

Weekly Outlook

3d Projection

Med Floor

17.6

DS Projection

22.5

Consensus

38 other sites
23

Med Ceiling

28.4

Rest of
Season

Week 20 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
286 2 0.7 9 22.5
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Week 14
Burrow has been playing fine in real football terms lately, but Sunday marked a rebound in fantasy terms. He delivered 348 yards and 2 TDs on 25-of-34 passing.

Burrow found Ja’Marr Chase twice for TDs and narrowly missed a 3rd connection when Chase couldn’t quite secure a deep ball he laid out for before hitting the ground.

Burrow had tossed just 3 total TD passes over the previous 4 games, with no more than 1 in any of those contests. But Sunday marked his 2nd straight game of 300+ yards. And Burrow has earned his 2 best Pro Football Focus passing grades among the past 3 weeks.

This Sunday presents his toughest remaining matchup by our adjusted fantasy points allowed. But the Broncos rank just 19th in Football Outsiders’ pass-defense DVOA and 19th in weighted overall defensive DVOA, which factors in recent weeks more heavily.

A Week 16 home date with Baltimore should find Burrow comfortably inside starter range in our rankings. We’ll see about a more questionable Week 17 clash with Kansas City.
Week 13
Burrow suffered a dislocated finger early in Sunday’s loss to the Chargers. He gutted through it, though, finishing with 300 yards, 1 TD and 2 picks. Trailing from the start, Burrow had to chuck it 40 times. His lone TD went to Tee Higgins, who’s really emerged as a go-to target in recent weeks. As for the injury, here’s what Burrow had to say: “It’s just something I am going to have to deal with. I am not going to miss any games because of it. Unless it somehow gets worse which I can’t imagine it is going to, I am going to play next week.” Perhaps he loses some zip and accuracy on the ball, but with a healthy group of skill players, Burrow will retain top-10 upside. Next up is a fine home matchup with San Francisco.
Week 11
Facing a Raiders defense with the top pressure rate in the league while doing so without blitzing was always going to present a challenge for Burrow. With an offensive line ill-equipped to protect him, he took to the short-passing attack, which was successful in helping the Bengals consistently move the chains. It wasn’t until late in the day that he was able to connect on a short TD pass to Ja’Marr Chase, who got open in the back corner of the end zone for his only TD of the day. With the Bengals leading most of the way, Burrow only had to throw the ball 29 times.

Coming into this week, the only game that Burrow failed to throw multiple TD passes was in a blowout loss to the Browns. In that game, the Bengals were forced to go pass heavy against a team with an elite pass rush. With Cincy likely being able to stay competitive in most of their remaining games, Burrow should remain a high-floor weekly option, as he can lean on his stud WR duo of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. It could be a bit problematic that they have 4 remaining games against teams with strong pass rushes, but he’s shown that he can usually have success despite his poor pass-blocking OL.
Week 9
Burrow completed 28 of 40 passes for 282 yards and 2 INTs in Cincinnati's 41-16 Week 9 bludgeoning from the Browns.
Burrow and the Bengals got off to a nightmare start as he took them right down the field on their opening drive only to throw an INT to Denzel Ward, who took it back 98 yards to the house to give the Browns a 7-0 lead.
Burrow then took the Bengals down the field again for a Joe Mixon TD to tie the game at 7 apiece. The Browns then scored 14 unanswered points and didn’t look back from there.
Burrow completed 70% of his passes but was unable to throw for any TDs as he was constantly under duress by a ferocious Browns pass rush. Burrow was sacked 5 times and Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase each dropped TDs.
Burrow is a low-end QB1 rest of season as the Bengals have their bye in Week 10.
Week 8
A surprising loss to the Jets this week for the Bengals ended up being a win for Burrow and his fantasy owners. Early indications during the week had the Bengals handling this game easily. Instead, Burrow had to attempt 34 passes, completing 62% of them for 259 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT. This led to a solid fantasy day as Burrow finished as the QB8 on the week. Better news for Burrow owners is the pass volume is starting to stay consistent. After averaging 25 pass attempts per game the first 3 weeks, Burrow has averaged 34.2 over the last 5. This bump in pass volume has helped Burrow to be a top 5 QB over that span.
This week the Bengals take on the Browns in an AFC North matchup. These AFC North games typically don’t yield much fantasy success for either team. However, in 2020 Burrow combined for 722 pass yards, 53 rushing yards and 7 total TDs vs. them in 2 games. This makes it easier to stay in the flames with Joe Burrow in Week 9.
Week 7
Burrow threw for 416 yards and 3 TDs in Sunday’s beatdown of the Ravens, and it earned him just his 5th-best passer rating on the season.

Rather than attack the antiquated QB-rating system, though, we’ll take that as a positive. Burrow heads into Week 8 as the league’s 5th highest-rated passer. He has especially improved in the deep range, going from 20.8% in Pro Football Focus’ adjusted completion rate last year to 44.4% so far this season.

Rookie Ja’Marr Chase has obviously helped. The 2 connected 8 times for 201 yards at Baltimore, including an 82-yard TD. Burrow also found C.J. Uzomah for scores from 55 and 32 yards out. He had a shot at another early in the 4th quarter but threw a bad INT into the end zone.

Burrow has tossed at least 2 TD passes in all 7 games this season, and the Bengals have leaned pass more since getting Tee Higgins back from his 2-game shoulder injury. RBSDM.com has them at 57.3% pass in “neutral” situations over the past 3 weeks vs. 45.9% over the first 4.

The QB looks like a top-10 option vs. the Jets and Browns the next 2 weeks, ahead of the Week 10 bye.
Week 6
Burrow continued his efficient play in Sunday’s win over the Lions, completing 19 of 29 passes (65.5%) for 271 yards (9.3 YPA), 3 TDs and 1 INT. His best throw was a perfectly lofted toss to RB Chris Evans on a wheel route for a 24-yard TD. Burrow’s other scores went to RB Joe Mixon on a screen and TE C.J. Uzomah at the goal line. Burrow even added a season-high 20 rushing yards as he puts last year’s knee injury further behind him.

Through 6 weeks, Burrow ranks 5th in completion rate, 4th in yards per attempt, 4th in TD rate and 7th in QB Rating. All that’s been missing is volume: Burrow sits just 24th in pass attempts. That has him 14th in fantasy points among QBs.

There’s good news, though. Cincinnati has started to boost the pass volume. Burrow has averaged 33 passes per game over the last 3 weeks after averaging just 25 over the first 3. Burrow has parlayed that additional opportunity into QB9, QB16 and QB7 fantasy finishes the past 3 weeks.

With his top 3 WRs and RB Joe Mixon healthy, Burrow looks like a low-end QB1 going forward. He gets the Ravens, Jets and Browns before a Week 10 bye.
Week 5
Most importantly, after the game, Burrow was taken to the hospital with a reported throat contusion, though he was able to finish the game. Before the injury, Burrow was under siege by the Packers' pass rush that had no issues overmatching the Bengals’ OL, and he actually was looked at by the medical staff for a big hit he took earlier in the contest. The pressure and lack of protection led to a pair of INTs that, along with missed FGs that could’ve won the game, cost the team a win. His best play of the day was finding Ja’Marr Chase, who got behind the defense for a 70-yard score. That duo accounted for 159 of Burrow’s 281 passing yards.

As long as he checks out well from the throat contusion he suffered, Burrow should remain a very consistent fantasy option based on his solid scoring floor. Although he’s only averaging about 30 pass attempts per game, he’s thrown at least 2 TD passes in each game (he has 1 game with 3 TDs). He's seen his yardage spike in each of his last 2 games, though that coincided with easier matchups. Of course his protection issues from a bad OL could lead to some floor outings when the Bengals face the better defenses in the league.
Week 4
Burrow delivered a 2nd straight stellar passing performance in the Thursday night comeback win over Jacksonville.

He -- and the offense on whole -- got off to a sluggish start while falling behind. Yet Burrow even finished the 1st half a solid 8-of-12 for 95 yards.

The 2nd-year QB turned that up in the 2nd half, though, going 17-of-20 for 253 more yards and both of his TDs. Burrow might even have reached the end zone on the ground in the 3rd quarter, but officials overturned his TD plunge on review. Joe Mixon then scored on the next play.

Burrow checked in 9th among fantasy QBs for the week, following a hyper-efficient 14-of-18, 3-TD performance at Pittsburgh in Week 3. The Cincinnati QB has benefited from 2 straight matchups with struggling pass defenses.

The next 5 outings -- leading up to the Week 10 bye -- won’t be so easy. But matchups with Green Bay and Detroit should keep Burrow in starter consideration the next 2 weeks, at least. He also has a chance to entrench himself within the top 16 at the position if he continues this efficient passing. Getting Tee Higgins back from a shoulder injury can only help.
Week 3
With the Bengals taking control of this game early, Burrow threw just 9 passes in each half of this game, which is why he was held to such a low yardage total. Despite the low passing volume, he salvaged his fantasy day by throwing a pair of TDs to Ja’Marr Chase with the WR single covered on each throw. He also connected on a TD to Tyler Boyd on a play he should’ve been tackled, but the defender didn’t wrap him up.

Although Burrow shows some signs of being a solid fantasy performer, the Bengals have either been winning or in close games, and as a result, he hasn’t thrown more than 30 passes in a game, which explains his modest yardage totals. However, once the schedule gets tougher and Burrow has to throw more, the problem is that he’s getting hit a lot per dropback, and the lack of protection could make it difficult for him to perform well and possibly remain healthy. He’s probably more of a QB2 than a QB1, though matchups could dictate weeks where he makes sense as a top-10 option.
Week 2
It was an ugly Week 2 for the Burrow. He completed 19 of 30 attempts for only 207 yards and 2 TDs. Unfortunately he added to his woes with 3 INTs in this contest. The turnovers were a combination of questionable decision making and bad pass protection

The Bengals refusal to get Joe Burrow offensive line help early in the 2021 NFL NFL Draft continues to be an issue. Burrow was sacked 4 times in this game, bringing his total on the season to 9.

Going forward, if Burrow does not have adequate time in the pocket he may become frustrating to deploy despite his bevy of weapons on the outside. Even with a depleted pass rush, the Steelers can have a field day against Cincinnati.
Week 1
If you drafted Burrow, you have to love a 261-yard, 2-TD opener. He completed 74% of his passes in the win over Minnesota, with the biggest highlight a 50-yard TD to Ja’Marr Chase.

There’s no need to boost Burrow beyond what those numbers say, so let’s focus on a few reasons to temper excitement.

The Bengals checked in last in the league in situation-neutral pass rate for the week, according to RBSDM.com. Perhaps they were just easing in their repaired QB. But if that continues, it would lower Burrow’s fantasy ceiling going forward.

He also took 5 sacks. That might actually make his blocking look worse than it was, though. According to Pro Football Focus, Burrow checked in just 13th among starters (excluding Ryan Fitzpatrick) in pressure rate. He led the league in percentage of pressures that turned into sacks, though. Burrow’s 45.5% mark there beat the nearest QB by 10.2 percentage points. Another 5 QBs sat within 10.2 percentage points behind #2 Ryan Tannehill.

Pair that stat with Burrow’s mere 1 rush for 2 yards, and we see a guy with compromised mobility. That certainly doesn’t doom Burrow; but we shouldn’t expect any of the rushing boost from him that we hoped for in his rookie season.

Ultimately, there’s enough to like here to have Burrow regularly in the QB12-QB18 mix. Week 2 takes him to visit a Chicago defense that didn’t pressure Matthew Stafford much in Week 1 and looked terrible in the secondary.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • The top pick in the 2020 draft, Burrow averaged 276.1 passing yards and 1.3 passing TDs per game.
  • Quietly, he popped in 3 rushing scores to go along with 142 yards.
  • Volume was huge here, as missed time from Joe Mixon and a bad defense put Burrow on a full-season pace of 647 attempts.
  • Burrow went down in Week 11 with a significant knee injury (ACL/MCL tear, other ligament damage). His doctor does expect Burrow to be a full-go for Week 1.
  • He finished as a QB1 in 2 of 9 full games, maxing out as the QB3 Week 7 vs. Cleveland.
  • Burrow’s TD rate of 3.2% ranked near the bottom of the league.
  • Burrow struggled on deep balls— quite a departure from his performance at LSU. His 20.8% adjusted completion rate ranked 41st among 44 QBs with 10+ deep attempts.
  • A.J. Green was targeted heavily (and inefficiently) on those deep passes. Replacing the veteran with a rare talent like Ja’Marr Chase should fuel instant progress.
  • Burrow played behind a bad O-line; Pro Football Focus graded Cincy 27th in pass blocking.
  • Burrow faced pressure on 32.2% of his dropbacks — 16th most among 30 QBs with 100+ dropbacks under pressure. He struggled to deliver with the 2nd lowest adjusted completion rate among those same 30 passers.
  • Over the offseason, the Bengals added O-line help in veteran RT Riley Reiff and rookie OG Jackson Carman. Reiff is the only one guaranteed to start, though.
  • The Bengals passed on Penei Sewell in Round 1 to select Chase, Burrow’s former LSU teammate.
  • A rare talent like Chase — paired with Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins — gives this offense a high-end 3-WR set.
  • The Bengals led the league in 3-WR sets last year (76%), and that number should only stabilize in ’21.
  • Cincy provides continuity for Burrow, returning the same HC (Zac Taylor), OC (Brian Callahan) and QB coach (Dan Pitcher). 2021 does set up as a make-or-break year for Taylor’s staff.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line

A prolific college passer in 2019, Burrow flashed high-end ability at times during his rookie season. Overall, though, he hit some rough patches due to a leaky O-line and a major, season-ending knee injury.

While the O-line remains a question mark, there’s optimism that it’ll improve in year 2. Burrow’s health will bear watching in the coming months, but the early word is that the knee will be fine for Week 1. Whether he’s at pre-injury levels mentally or physically right away remains to be seen.

Regardless, over a 17-game season, Burrow will bring tantalizing upside because of Cincinnati’s pass catchers. He’s certainly a candidate to jump up into QB1 territory.


Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Bengals QB Joe Burrow, WR Tee Higgins and K Evan McPherson are inactive for today’s game vs. the Browns.WR Ja’Marr Chase is active but might play just long enough to get the 12 yards he needs to set Cincinnati’s single-season franchise record.TE C.J. Uzomah (knee, hip) is surprisingly active after missing practice all week.

View all Joe Burrow Shark Bites »

Bengals QB Joe Burrow told reporters that he won't play in Sunday's regular-season finale. He said it's to "rest up," but it's also worth remembering that Burrow tweaked his right knee at the end of last week's win over the Chiefs. Cincinnati has a 1st-round home playoff game locked up and would need the Titans to lose to the Texans and the Chiefs to lose to the Broncos to get the #1 seed. RB Joe Mixon (COVID) is already out for Week 18, and we're not expecting WRs Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd to play much, if at all, vs. Cleveland. QB Brandon Allen will get the start.

View all Joe Burrow Shark Bites »

Bengals QB Joe Burrow got his right knee twisted on a 4th-down play at the very end of Sunday’s game vs. the Chiefs. QB Brandon Allen replaced Burrow to take the final 2 snaps before the game-winning FG. HC Zac Taylor suggested afterward that Burrow should be ok going forward, but it’ll be a situation to monitor this coming week.

View all Joe Burrow Shark Bites »

Bengals QB Joe Burrow (finger) isn’t listed on the final injury report. He put in a limited practice on Thursday and was a full-go on Friday. He threw the ball well in practice according to the Cincinnati media in attendance. We’re not expecting Burrow’s injured pinky to be a problem in Sunday’s game vs. the 49ers.

View all Joe Burrow Shark Bites »

Bengals QB Joe Burrow (finger, knee) put in a limited practice on Thursday. He reportedly looked just fine throwing without any protection on that injured pinky, according to the media in attendance for the start of practice. Burrow is fully expected to start Sunday's game vs. the 49ers.

View all Joe Burrow Shark Bites »

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