Joe Burrow Fantasy Overview

Production & Fantasy Finishes

A Week 2 toe injury limited Burrow to just eight games last year. He finished with 1,809 passing yards, 17 TDs, and 5 INTs.

If you throw out the Week 2 game he left early, Burrow averaged 247.6 yards and 2.3 TDs per game. That’s a full-season pace of 4,209 yards and 38.9 TDs, marks that would have ranked fifth and second league-wide.

Burrow’s 21.4 fantasy points per game across his seven full outings ranked eighth among QBs. He finished as a top-12 QB in five of those seven games, including three top-6 finishes.

Usage & Role

The Bengals stayed pass-heavy with Burrow last year. His 35.1 pass attempts across seven full games trailed only Bo Nix, Patrick Mahomes, and Dak Prescott.

Burrow averaged just 2.0 carries across those seven games, a career low likely at least partly tied to the toe injury.

Burrow tied for seventh among QBs in expected fantasy points per game.

Efficiency & Regression

Burrow’s efficiency last year was down from its usually lofty heights. Among 42 qualifying QBs, he ranked:

• 14th in completion rate
• 13th in completion rate over expected
• 21st in yards per attempt
• 12th in adjusted yards per attempt

Burrow’s 6.6% TD rate was good for fourth, though. He was also the only QB to rank top-10 in Pro Football Focus’ big-time throw rate and turnover-worthy play rate.

Burrow finished second among those 42 qualifying QBs in PFF passing grade.

Offensive Context

The 2025 Bengals ranked top-6 in pass rate (64.0%), neutral pass rate (63.5%), and pass rate over expected (+4.3%), despite Burrow missing nine games and most of a 10th.

The Bengals’ pass rate surprisingly shrank to 58.4% in Burrow’s seven full games, although they still posted a +4.2% pass rate over expected in those contests.

Burrow had WR Ja’Marr Chase for all seven of his full games but missed WR Tee Higgins for two of them.

He played behind a shaky offensive line that ranked 28th in ESPN pass-block win rate and 26th in Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade.

Historical Production & Trends

Burrow’s fantasy-scoring average last year was the second-lowest of his six-year career, ahead of only 2023. Here’s where he finished among QBs in fantasy points per game in his first five seasons:

• 2020: 15th
• 2021: ninth
• 2022: fourth
• 2023: 25th
• 2024: second

Burrow led the league in passing yards (4,918) and TDs (43) in 2024, when he and Chase both played all 17 games.

Injury History & Durability

Injuries have been a regular problem for Burrow. Prior to the Grade 3 turf toe that cost him nine games last year, he missed seven games in 2023 with a torn ligament in his right wrist and six games with a torn ACL, MCL, PCL, and meniscus in his left knee in 2020.

Burrow also …

• dislocated his right pinkie in 2021
• needed an emergency appendectomy during training camp and sprained an MCL in 2022
• and injured his right calf in training camp in 2023.

None of those injuries cost him games, but Burrow has admitted that the summer appendectomy and calf injury impacted his play early in those seasons.

Projected Role & Competition

Burrow’s under contract through 2029 on the five-year, $275 million extension he signed in September 2023.

The Bengals re-signed QB Joe Flacco to a one-year, $6 million deal in March to serve as Burrow’s backup.

Supporting Cast

Burrow finds a familiar supporting cast. The Bengals made no significant moves at the skill positions, only adding Day 3 rookies WR Colbie Young and TE Jack Endries. TE Noah Fant departed in free agency, but he totaled just 34 catches for 288 yards and 3 TDs last year.

Chase and Higgins return as one of the top WR duos in the game. But the WR room gets shaky in a hurry behind them, with Young joining Andrei Iosivas, Mitch Tinsley, and Charlie Jones.

Fant’s departure leaves Mike Gesicki as Cincinnati’s top pass-catching TE. Tanner Hudson and Drew Sample return after combining for 34 catches last year. We’ll see if the Bengals get anything from 2024 fourth-rounder Erick All, who missed all of 2025 after tearing his right ACL for the second time.

Chase Brown is a reliable target out of the backfield, totaling 123 catches on an 80.4% catch rate over the last two seasons, albeit at just 6.5 yards per catch.

Chase and Higgins clearly carry the pass-catching corps, so an injury to either would be a problem for Burrow.

The offensive line also remains worrisome. The Bengals return all five starters from last year in OTs Orlando Brown Jr. and Amarius Mims, Gs Dalton Risner and Dylan Fairchild, and C Ted Karras.

Risner, Fairchild, and Karras fared fine in Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grades last year. But Mims and Brown ranked 48th and 56th, respectively, among 75 qualifying OTs.

This again projects as a subpar offensive line.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

Zac Taylor is back for his seventh season as Bengals HC and offensive play caller.

A pass-heavy Taylor offense is one of the safest bets in fantasy football. Here’s where Cincinnati has ranked in pass attempts, pass rate, and neutral pass rate since Burrow arrived:

The Bengals made some key additions to the defense this offseason in DLs Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen, and Boye Mafe, plus S Bryan Cook.

Improvement on that side of the ball could have Burrow in fewer shootouts and more positive game scripts this year. But the Bengals remain a good bet to finish top-5 in pass rate.

Paths to Ceiling

Burrow remains an efficient passer in a pass-centric offense with one of the best WR duos in the league.

That ceiling showed up in 2024, when Burrow ranked second among QBs in fantasy points per game. A similar season is within his 2026 range of outcomes.

Risk Factors

Injuries are the biggest risk factor for Burrow. He’s missed significant time with injury in three of six NFL seasons. And injuries to either of his top two WRs would leave the pass-catching corps lacking.

Burrow doesn’t add much with his legs, so he’s reliant on strong passing volume and efficiency.