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Joe Mixon - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsJoe Mixon's Basic Stats

Joe Mixon
ADP: 4.6
Bye: 14
Experience: 7
Age: 28.0
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 220
40 Time: 4.50

SPARQx (Rank): 120.40 (78%)
Burst Score (Rank): 118.50 (49%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.37 (55%)
Three Cone Drill (Rank): 7.10

Joe Mixon's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
61 0.49 2.7 19.2 0.11 11.4
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
60 0.5 3.6 26.2 0.2 12.5

Joe Mixon's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#11 Running Back

226.2 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
4.6 243.7 978 7.85 1.7 1.6 43.2 307.6 1.76

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsJoe Mixon's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Mixon signing with the Texans was the best-case scenario after being released by the Bengals.

He joins a prolific offense that gave Devin Singletary fantasy relevancy last season in OC Bobby Slowik’s offense. With C.J. Stroud and the WR weapons on the Texans, Mixon should have even more scoring opportunities.

Even if his receptions take a step back, Mixon should flirt with RB1 numbers again this season.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Mixon’s 923 rushing yards ranked 13th among RBs. His 51 catches ranked 10th among RBs.
  • He did not miss any games due to injury.
  • Mixon ranked as the PPR RB7 in total fantasy points (242.2) and RB10 in points per game (12.0).
    • He finished RB12 or better six times. He recorded seven games between RB13 and RB24.
  • He ranked 19th among all ball carriers in rushing success rate at 49.4%.
  • He played 69% of the Bengals offensive snaps last season. His per-game averages for the season :
    • 15.1 carries
    • 60.8 rushing yards
    • 0.53 rushing TDs
    • 3.76 targets
    • 3.06 catches
    • 22.1 receiving yards
    • 0.18 receiving TDs
  • Mixon’s statistical success may have been a bit of a charade. Among 51 RBs with 90+ carries last year, he ranked:
    • 32nd in Pro Football Focus rushing grade
    • 39th in PFF’s Elusive Rating
    • 27th in NFL Next Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt
  • His receiving metrics were slightly better. Among 43 RBs with 30+ targets, Mixon ranked:
    • 15th in PFF receiving grade
    • 24th in yards per route run

What to Expect in 2024

  • Mixon signed a three-year, $25.5 million contract with the Texans this offseason with $13 million guaranteed. His $9.875 million per year ranks sixth among RBs.
  • He will play under HC Demeco Ryans and second-year OC Bobby Slowik.
  • The Texans are expected to perform similarly to last season. They have the highest win total in the AFC South at 9.5 wins on most sportsbooks.
  • They also have the eighth-highest odds to win the Super Bowl at +1600 on most sportsbooks, best in the division.
  • Mixon enters his eighth season at 28 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average RB with Mixon’s career will produce between 80 and 88% of his peak value at age-28.

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Joe Mixon, RB HOU

9:47pm EDT 7/21/24

Texans OC: Joe Mixon is a "Workhorse"

Texans OC Bobby Slowik gushed about RB Joe Mixon in Saturday's press conference. "He's a fun, fun person to coach," Slowik said with a big smile. "From Day one, showed up and absolutely worked his tail off. I mean you could see right away in Phase two, and in OTAs, like I understand now why he was as good as he was in Cincinnati. He puts in an immense amount of work. He loves football. He does not stop wanting to learn, wanting to grow. ... Workhorse. He’s an absolute workhorse, in every regard. Not just as a ball carrier. He embraces protections. He embraces the other things he can do outside of carrying the ball, as an eligible [receiver], as a decoy."

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The Texans and RB Joe Mixon agreed to a three-year extension worth $27 million total with $13 million guaranteed, according to insider Jordan Schultz. If there was any doubt that Mixon will be Houston's clear lead back at least this coming season, this deal should erase it. The 27-year-old is on the downside of his career but can still carry a load on the ground and is reliable in the passing game. Set to see nice volume in an ascending Texans offense, Mixon has a shot to turn in another RB1 fantasy season in 2024.

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You might have thought the Bengals were going to release Joe Mixon ... because that's what got reported Monday. Instead, though, Cincinnati is trading the RB to Houston. That's about as good an outcome as Mixon could have found. Houston jumped from 31st in offensive DVOA in 2022 to 14th last year -- with the run game (19th) trailing the pass offense (10th). Further maturation for QB C.J. Stroud and his young wideouts can only help. And the Texans clearly believe Mixon to be an upgrade over the Devin Singletary-Dameon Pierce tandem. Trading for Mixon's contract ($6 million cap hit in 2024) instead of waiting for him to hit the open market says Houston wants Mixon to lead the backfield. Perhaps Mixon draws fewer targets in an offense unlikely to pass as much as Cincinnati's. But it should be a good spot for his efficiency and scoring opportunities. Mixon played all 17 games in 2023, scored the second-most TDs of his career (despite the Bengals' injury-driven offensive issues), and showed no meaningful drop-off across his advanced metrics. Consider him a high-RB2 for 2024 drafts, with upside into RB1 range. Check our best ball rankings for his updated position.

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NFL Network reports that the Bengals are releasing RB Joe Mixon. This doesn't come as a huge surprise, given the annual reports of it being possible. At the same time, Cincinnati has also agreed to a two-year deal with Zack Moss. The former Colt figures to share the backfield with 2023 fifth-round pick Chase Brown. We'll head toward summer assuming Moss will get the larger share of the workload. But his $4.5 million salary for 2024 doesn't necessarily guarantee him a "lead" role. Mixon, meanwhile, is coming off a rebound season and should get a shot elsewhere. We'll see whether the release knocks Mixon further below his RB27 Underdog Fantasy ADP. He's still worth a look in that range of best ball drafts but adds risk as long as he's without a team. Moss should settle into low-RB2 range, while Brown probably should be more of a low RB3. Check our best ball rankings for updates.

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Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

Joe Mixon, RB HOU
Dynasty MVP 81.1
Position Rank #47 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
302
434
560
Dynasty Write-up
Mixon quietly assembled the PPR RB6 season in 2023. He's now compiled 918 touches over the past three years. Entering his age 28 season, Mixon is a clear sell-high candidate -- even in a favorable situation with Houston.
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