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Joe Mixon - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Joe Mixon
CIN

RB CIN

#10 Running Back

213 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 10
Experience: 4 Yr(s)
Age: 25
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 226
40 Time: 4.45

Weekly Outlook

3d Projection

Low Floor

7

DS Projection

11.7

Consensus

38 other sites
12

Low Ceiling

16.3

Rest of
Season

13.2

Week 7 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
69.7 0.4 2.3 17.4 0.1 11.7
Weekly Writeup
Mixon's ankle injury is clearly behind him. He turned 18 carries and 6 targets into 153 total yards and a score. The Ravens sit 13th in Football Outsiders' run defense rankings and 26th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
72 0.6 2.5 18 0.1 13.2
Week 6
That ankle injury is clearly behind Mixon. He looked awesome in Sunday’s win over the Lions, namely on a screen pass that he took for a 40-yard TD. Mixon finished with 18 carries for 94 yards, plus 5 catches on 6 targets for 59 yards and the score.

That receiving production is most notable after Mixon had totaled just 6 targets and 4 catches over the previous 4 games. He caught 4 balls back in Week 1, so it’s tough to know what to expect from Mixon in the passing game going forward at this point.

What we know is that he’ll be a workhorse on the ground when healthy. Omitting Week 5 when Mixon was clearly limited, he’s averaged 20.2 carries across his other 5 games, with 16+ in all 5 of them.

That volume alone makes Mixon an every-week RB1. And if the Week 6 passing-game usage continues, he’ll have top-5 fantasy upside.
Week 5
Going into this game, it was reported that Mixon would play in some capacity, forcing fantasy managers into a tough decision as to whether to place him in lineups. Fortunately for those who started him, he cashed in on an 8-yard TD scamper. Otherwise, he played just 28% of the snaps and was out-touched by Samaje Perine 15 to 10 with Perine proving much more effective on the ground. Perine was also targeted 5 times while Mixon didn’t garner a single look in the passing game.

It bodes well for Mixon that he played in this game, but he’ll need to be fully healthy to be a strong fantasy option going forward, as Perine could continue to cut into his work until Mixon is healthy. On the season, hIs fantasy value has been aided by 3 TDs, but he’s been unable to surpass 94 yards since Week 1 despite seeing an average of 19 touches in Weeks 2-4. If he’s healthy, the large workload at least will give him a solid scoring floor each week.
Week 3
In a game the Bengals led throughout, Mixon saw a season low 18 carries. He had an impressive 5 yards per carry, but he added just 1 catch on his only target for 4 yards. So despite solid volume, it was far from a strong fantasy performance. Although the Steelers usually have an excellent run defense, they were without DE Stephon Tuitt and OLBs Alex Highsmith and T.J. Watt, so that certainly played a part in him having success on the ground. It also didn’t help that when the team got in the red zone, it was the WRs who found the end zone instead of Mixon.

Although he had 33 touches in the season opener, Mixon has had 19 and 21 the past 2 games. Although that’s excellent usage, he hasn’t found the end zone or reached 100 yards in those last 2 games. Of course, the volume makes him a lock for RB2 production, which is what he was likely to be drafted for. There’ll be the occasional huge game that makes him a week winner, so start him weekly with confidence.
Week 2
Mixon is becoming the feature back we all wanted to see. On Sunday, he saw all 20 carries for the Bengals, tallying a very nice 69 yards. This volume came on the heels of 29 carries in Week 1 against the Vikings. Mixon may have been on his way to another 25+ carry day if Cincinnati wasn't down so much in the 2nd half.

Mixon is emerging as a Derrick Henry type player from a volume perspective for this Bengals offense. It was a frustrating dose of reality when it comes to his passing game usage after he saw 4 targets a week ago. Only time will tell if Week 1 was the blip or the start of something for Mixon.

Cincinnati will need to do a better job of protecting Burrow in the pocket. If they can, more 100+ yard days like we saw in Week 1 will absolutely be there.

Mixon is a locked and loaded start each and every week seeing this kind of volume. Will there be days leaving you wanting more? Sure, but that is the case with almost every back. Volume is key to fantasy production and Mixon has it.
Week 1
Week 1 couldn’t have gone much better for Mixon. His 29 carries led the league, and Mixon turned those into 127 yards and a TD. The Bengals led the league in situation-neutral run rate for the week, and only 5 of the 34 RB carries (14.7%) went to anyone else.

Mixon also tied for 3rd on the team in targets, claiming 4 of the 5 (80%) that went to RBs. He caught all 4 for another 23 yards. Mixon played 78% of the offensive snaps, ran a route on 55% of Joe Burrow’s dropbacks and ranked among Pro Football Focus’ top 7 in both rushing grade and receiving grade at the position.

We’ll see whether the pass-run split shifts as Burrow gets further away from last year’s knee injury. But that doesn’t matter much if Mixon is operating as the workhorse.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Mixon signed a 4-year extension just prior to Week 1 of last season.
  • Injuries quickly became the theme of his 4th year. He landed on the injury report with shin, chest and foot injuries. The right foot injury ended Mixon’s season after Week 6.
  • No specifics were given on Mixon’s injury, but the lengthy absence was curious after HC Zac Taylor initially called the RB “day to day.” The good news is that Mixon was a full-go for the start of OTAs in late May.
  • Prior to the foot issue, Mixon struggled to produce behind a bad O-line. His 1.9 yards before contact per attempt ranked bottom-5 among qualifiers.
  • Mixon saw 20+ opportunities (carries + targets) in all 6 games. He was on pace for a career-high 56 catches.
  • Mixon averaged 3.6 yards per carry; 2.55 yards after contact per attempt. The poor O-line certainly played a role.
  • He faced 8+ defenders in the box on just 8.4% of his carries. Cincy will continue going 3-WR heavy with Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins and top pick Ja'Marr Chase.
  • The hope is that the O-line improves. Veteran RT Riley Reiff is locked into a starting role, and Round 2 rookie OG Jackson Carman will battle for another. LT Jonah Williams will need to stay healthy after landing on IR in back to back years.
  • The Bengals released Gio Bernard in April. The career-long Bengal had caught 30+ balls in 8 straight seasons.
  • There isn’t a clear handcuff to Mixon. Samaje Perine, Trayveon Williams and rookie Chris Evans will battle for the role.
  • OC Brian Callahan said the following this offseason: "I don't want Joe to leave the field, and I think he's up for that challenge.”
  • Joe Burrow suffered a major knee injury last November. A slow start is possible for the young passer, but the doctor working on Burrow’s rehab said in May that he’s on track for Week 1.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line

Before a lost 2020, Mixon tallied 1,400 total yards in back to back seasons. That production surfaced primarily with Andy Dalton under center and Gio Bernard siphoning receptions.

Mixon’s 2021 setup looks like his best one yet. Joe Burrow is track to return for Week 1, while Gio Bernard is finally gone. Plus, impact rookie Ja'Marr Chase joins an already strong WR corps. So Mixon should find more room to run— even with modest O-line improvements.

Only 25, the highly-athletic Mixon looks like one of the league’s top rebound candidates and a desirable RB1/2.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Bengals RB Joe Mixon (ankle) is active for today’s game against the Lions. He was listed as questionable after getting in only 2 limited practices this week. But HC Zac Taylor said Friday morning that Mixon “should get a full workload” vs. Detroit. RB Samaje Perine (COVID) is out, which can’t hurt Mixon’s volume. Consider him a risk/reward RB1 today.

View all Joe Mixon Shark Bites »

Bengals RB Joe Mixon (ankle) is expected to play vs. the Lions today, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. Mixon got in just 2 limited practices this week and is listed as questionable. But HC Zac Taylor said Friday that Mixon is ready for a full workload. Consider him a risk/reward RB1 in Week 6 fantasy lineups.

View all Joe Mixon Shark Bites »

Bengals RB Joe Mixon (ankle) is listed as questionable for this weekend’s game against the Lions after getting in limited practices on Wednesday and Friday. That’s not a great look, but HC Zac Taylor said Friday morning that Mixon “should get a full workload” this weekend. RB Samaje Perine remains on the COVID list as of Friday afternoon, leaving RBs Chris Evans and Trayveon Williams behind Mixon on the depth chart.

View all Joe Mixon Shark Bites »

Bengals HC Zac Taylor said Friday that RB Joe Mixon (ankle) "should get a full workload" against the Lions on Sunday. Mixon was obviously limited by that ankle last week but came out of that game without suffering a setback. He averaged 20.8 carries and 2.3 targets over the first 4 games of the season and should be in line for similar volume on Sunday.

View all Joe Mixon Shark Bites »

Bengals RB Joe Mixon (ankle) did not practice on Thursday. He either suffered a setback with that ankle or got the day off. Tomorrow's practice participation and final injury report will tell the story. With RB Samaje Perine still on the COVID list, rookie Chris Evans could be left as the lead back for Sunday's game vs. the Lions.

View all Joe Mixon Shark Bites »

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