Jordan Addison - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

If drafters were chasing Addison at the WR23 level where he finished in PPR last year, then he would be an easy “avoid.” Instead, the QB questions and Justin Jefferson’s healthy return have the second-year wideout going outside WR3 range. He’s a fine chance to take at that level.

What We Learned Last Year

• Addison unsurprisingly benefited (in target count) from Justin Jefferson missing time.
  • The rookie averaged 4.9 targets and drew a 14.6% target share across seven full games shared with Jefferson.
  • That climbed to 7.0 targets per game and a 19.9% share over Addison’s other eight contests.
• The rookie finished 31st among WRs in PPR points per game.
  • He tied for 26th in total targets.
  • He finished 29th in receptions and receiving yards.
  • He tied for fourth in TD catches.
• Addison’s 14.3% TD rate and 17 games played pushed him to WR23 in total fantasy points. But the other stats show that his per-game average fell in line with his usage.
• His 1.50 yards per route ranked just 55th among 96 WRs who drew at least 40 targets. That rate actually came in a little lower across eight games with Kirk Cousins than nine games without him.

What to Expect in 2024

• Jefferson’s healthy return figures to challenge Addison’s target count. The 4.9 targets per game he averaged with Jefferson last year would have ranked just 63rd among WRs for the season.
• TE T.J. Hockenson’s injury could help, though. Hockenson in April called his recovery a nine-month process. That would put him back in late September at the earliest. And how effective – or even involved – Hockenson will be upon his return probably won’t be clear until we see him on the field.
• WR K.J. Osborn’s departure also leaves vacates 11.9% of last year’s targets. Addison should soak up at least some of that and could take on a large portion of it. The WR depth chart looks weak behind him and Jefferson.
  • Brandon Powell (29 in September) looks like the lead candidate for the No. 3 role. He has yet to reach 30 receptions in an NFL season.
  • Trent Sherfield was the biggest WR addition. He sports 78 total receptions across six NFL campaigns.
• Aaron Jones upgrades the backfield and adds receiving ability there. But Vikings RBs have collectively ranked 24th and 23rd in receptions in O’Connell’s two seasons. We’re not betting on Jones’ arrival taking a noticeable share of targets away from WRs.
• The QBs are a question mark. It’ll be some combo of Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy this season, both of whom are new to the team.
  • Darnold looks like the early favorite to start the season, which might seem worrisome. But Minnesota clearly believes him to be an upgrade over the Joshua Dobbs-Nick Mullens-Jaren Hall mess after Cousins went down.
  • At the least, Darnold and McCarthy probably won’t be worse than that group.
• This has also been a pass-favoring offense under O’Connell. Over his two seasons, the Vikings have ranked seventh in neutral-situation pass rate, according to RBSDM.com.
  • Even after Cousins went down last year, Minnesota still ranked 11th from Week 9 on – a stretch that included Jefferson missing four games and playing a limited role in another.