Show Navigation
Show Menu
Player Profile

Adam Thielen - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Adam Thielen
MIN

WR MIN

#15 Wide Receiver

159 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 7
Experience: 7 Yr(s)
Age: 31
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 201
40 Time: 4.54

Weekly Outlook

3d Projection

Low Floor

4.7

DS Projection

8.5

Consensus

38 other sites
9

Med Ceiling

12.8

Rest of
Season

9.7

Week 6 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.5 55 0.5 8.5
Weekly Writeup
Thielen has been quiet the past 2 weeks and is starting to look like a TD-dependent fantasy play. The Panthers have allowed just 5 WR TDs through 5 weeks.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.5 60 0.6 9.7
Week 5
Going into the latter part of the 4th quarter, Thielen had exactly zero catches, but after the Vikings blew the lead they held for the entire game with just a few minutes left, the WR was able to get onto the stat sheet. The 2 catches he had late in the game moved him to a respectable 40 yards, but the 3 targets he saw were extremely disappointing. The Vikings were clearly trying to win with defense and their running game, and aside from Justin Jefferson, no other WR was a focal point, including Thielen.

Although Thielen hasn't exceeded 50 yards in any of his last 4 games, this was the first time he was targeted fewer than 7 times all season, so there’s no need to hit the panic button. The yardage downturn had already started for him last year, so that shouldn’t be a surprise, but his red zone usage, which provided much of his fantasy value last year, has mostly remained with him scoring 4 times in 5 games. There’s certainly still upside, as evidenced by his 9-92-2 TD stat line in Week 1. Just be prepared for the floor weeks when he’ll often be a WR3.
Week 4
Thielen took a backseat this week to Justin Jefferson as he only caught 3 balls for 46 yards. Thielen didn’t get his usual red zone work as those targets went to Jefferson. Prior to Week 4 Thielen had 4 TDs in the first 3 games while converting 6 red zone looks into 4 TDs. That pace isn’t going to be sustainable, but the combination of a tough opponent and no red zone looks won’t happen often.
This week Thielen looks to bounce back vs. a Lions D that he has struggled to produce against over the past few seasons. In 2020 Thielen failed to hit double digit fantasy points in either game vs. Detroit. Granted this is a new coaching staff for the Lions, but it is something to consider when playing Thielen in Week 5.
Week 1
Hey, did you know Thielen likes to score TDs?

Last year’s #3 in scoring catches was back at it with a pair of end-zone trips at Cincinnati. First came a 5-yard TD in the 2nd quarter. Then Thielen took a short 4th-and-4 pass into the end zone from 24 yards out late in the 3rd.

Overall, he drew a game-high 10 targets -- 20.4% of Kirk Cousins’ 49 pass attempts for the game. That total is obviously coming down, but expect Thielen’s target share to remain in the low 20s.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Justin Jefferson not only outscored Thielen in total PPR points and points per game (by 0.1), he also took over the target lead. Jefferson started from Week 3 on. In their 13 shared games over that span, Jefferson led Thielen 106-92 in targets. The rookie out-targeted the vet in 8 of those contests, including each of the team’s final 5 games.
  • Thielen still ranked 20th in the league in target share, even with the missed game. His 15-game share would have ranked 10th among wideouts.
  • Thielen got a big fantasy boost from his use around the end zone. Despite beating Jefferson by just 2 red-zone targets (30-28), Thielen garnered 20 end-zone looks vs. just 8 for Jefferson, according to Pro Football Focus. Thielen scored on 13 of those. (Jefferson just 2.)
  • Those 20 targets made up 18.9% of his total for last season, the largest such share among Thielen’s 4 years as a full-time starter. He saw 17% of his targets in the end zone in 2019, 6.7% in 2018 and 8.1% in 2017.
  • The Kirk Cousins Era has been good for Thielen’s red-zone work, though. He ranked 12th in total RZ targets in 2018 (Cousins’ 1st year in Minnesota) and 13th last season. Thielen lost 6 games (and portions of others) to hamstring trouble in 2019 but still saw red-zone looks make up a larger share of his total than the other 2 years (29.8%).
  • Thielen’s overall performance stayed right in line with what we’ve come to expect since he entered the starting lineup.
  • For the 2nd straight year, he spent most of his time outside rather than in the slot. Thielen played 48.7% of his snaps in the slot in 2017, his 1st season as a full-time starter. That grew to 56.6% in 2018. He spent just 30.7% of his snaps in the slot in 2019, though, and then 27.1% last year.
  • That change has produced deeper average target depths than in previous seasons, though no boost in yards per catch.
  • Thielen will turn 31 in August, but that doesn’t seem to be an overly concerning age. Thielen is going off the board as WR22 in ADP as of this writing. Amari Cooper ranked 22nd in PPR points per game at the position last season with 14.7. To date, we’ve had 75 WR seasons of 14.7+ PPR points per game from WRs aged 31 or older.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Thielen’s on the wrong side of 30 for an NFL player, but he showed no clear signs of decline in 2020. He did watch Justin Jefferson overtake him as the Vikings’ top target, but there’s enough left to feed Thielen at a fantasy-starter level.


Expect some regression from his TD total after the veteran got fortunate in the red zone -- and especially on end-zone looks -- but all of that appears baked into his current WR22 ADP. That’s right in the range where we have him projected.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Vikings WR Adam Thielen has been activated from the COVID list. He'll return for Sunday's plus matchup vs. the Jaguars and should be back in fantasy lineups.

View all Adam Thielen Shark Bites »

Vikings WR Adam Thielen (COVID) is officially out for today’s game against the Panthers. WR Olabisi Johnson figures to replace him in the starting lineup -- but rookie WR Justin Jefferson should dominate targets.

View all Adam Thielen Shark Bites »

Vikings WR Adam Thielen (COVID) is not expected to play against the Panthers on Sunday, according to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler. Thielen reportedly returned a positive and negative test earlier this week but remains on the COVID list. His absence would move Olabisi Johnson into the starting lineup -- but rookie WR Justin Jefferson should dominate targets. TE Kyle Rudolph also gets a nice boost with both Thielen and TE Irv Smith expected to sit.

View all Adam Thielen Shark Bites »

Vikings WR Adam Thielen had both positive and negative COVID tests recently, NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reports. Thielen is on the COVID list, but "the NFL and its medical experts are continuing to sort through that situation to determine his availability" for Sunday's game vs. the Panthers. We'll continue to keep a close eye on this situation.

View all Adam Thielen Shark Bites »

Vikings WR Adam Thielen has been placed on the COVID list. It's still unclear whether he tested positive for the virus or just came in contact with someone who did. If it's the latter, he'll have a chance to get cleared in time for Sunday's game vs. the Panthers.

View all Adam Thielen Shark Bites »

Winning Your League Starts Here Trophy

Why Wouldn’t You Invest
$36 to Win Your League?

Check out thisleague-winning info

2021 Draft Package Now - Sept 15th

$39

Get Instant Access
2021 In-Season Package Sept 5th - Mar 7th

$39

Get Access Sept. 5th
2021 DFS Package Sept 5th - Mar 7th

$49

Get Access Sept. 5th
Best Value – All Access Pass
DS Insider Membership All 3 Packages

$127 $36

Semi-annual auto-renew
Get Instant Access
Draft War Room Included Draft War Room Draft War Room Draft War Room Included Draft War Room
Award-Winning Player Rankings Included Award-Winning Player Rankings Award-Winning Player Rankings Award-Winning Player Rankings Included Award-Winning Player Rankings
3D Projections Included 3D Projections 3D Projections 3D Projections Included 3D Projections
Live-Draft Sync Included Live-Draft Sync Live-Draft Sync Live-Draft Sync Included Live-Draft Sync
In-Depth Player Profiles Included In-Depth Player Profiles In-Depth Player Profiles In-Depth Player Profiles Included In-Depth Player Profiles
Mock Draft Tool Included Mock Draft Tool Mock Draft Tool Mock Draft Tool Included Mock Draft Tool
Round-by-Round Draft Strategies Included Round-by-Round Draft Strategies Round-by-Round Draft Strategies Round-by-Round Draft Strategies Included Round-by-Round Draft Strategies
Insider Sleepers & Busts Included Insider Sleepers & Busts Insider Sleepers & Busts Insider Sleepers & Busts Included Insider Sleepers & Busts
Average Draft Position by Scoring Included Average Draft Position by Scoring Average Draft Position by Scoring Average Draft Position by Scoring Included Average Draft Position by Scoring
Scientific Injury Predictor Included Scientific Injury Predictor Scientific Injury Predictor Scientific Injury Predictor Included Scientific Injury Predictor
In-Season Weekly Rankings In-Season Weekly Rankings Included In-Season Weekly Rankings In-Season Weekly Rankings Included In-Season Weekly Rankings
“Who Should I Start?” Tool “Who Should I Start?” Tool Included “Who Should I Start?” Tool “Who Should I Start?” Tool Included “Who Should I Start?” Tool
“My Team” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications “My Team” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications Included “My Team” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications “My Team” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications Included “My Team” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications
Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Included Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Included Live-Sync Free Agent Finder
Trade Partner Navigator Trade Partner Navigator Included Trade Partner Navigator Trade Partner Navigator Included Trade Partner Navigator
Player Shares Player Shares Included Player Shares Player Shares Included Player Shares
In-Depth Free Agent Gems In-Depth Free Agent Gems Included In-Depth Free Agent Gems In-Depth Free Agent Gems Included In-Depth Free Agent Gems
Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Included Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Included Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice
Strength-of-Schedule Data Strength-of-Schedule Data Included Strength-of-Schedule Data Strength-of-Schedule Data Included Strength-of-Schedule Data
DFS Lineup Builder DFS Lineup Builder DFS Lineup Builder Included DFS Lineup Builder Included DFS Lineup Builder
DFS Ownership Projections DFS Ownership Projections DFS Ownership Projections Included DFS Ownership Projections Included DFS Ownership Projections
Weekly GPP Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Weekly GPP Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Weekly GPP Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Included Weekly GPP Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Included Weekly GPP Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Weekly Cash Game Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Weekly Cash Game Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Weekly Cash Game Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Included Weekly Cash Game Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Included Weekly Cash Game Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Weekly Top Stacks Weekly Top Stacks Weekly Top Stacks Included Weekly Top Stacks Included Weekly Top Stacks
High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews Included High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews Included High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews
DFS Independent DFS Independent DFS Independent Included DFS Independent Included DFS Independent
Daily Fantasy Advice Daily Fantasy Advice Daily Fantasy Advice Included Daily Fantasy Advice Included Daily Fantasy Advice
Personalized Email Advice Personalized Email Advice Personalized Email Advice Included Personalized Email Advice Included Personalized Email Advice
Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles
Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates
Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates
To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives
All-Access
Draft Sharks App
All–Access Draft Sharks App
Included All-Access
Draft Sharks App
Included All-Access
Draft Sharks App
Included All-Access
Draft Sharks App
Included All-Access
Draft Sharks App
Get Instant Access Get Access Sept. 5th Get Access Sept. 5th Get Instant Access

Turn your phone into a draft weapon with our FREE APP

Download on the App Store Get It on Google Play