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Adam Thielen - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsAdam Thielen’s Basic Stats

Adam Thielen
ADP: N/A
Bye: 11
Experience: 10
Age: 34.3
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 195
40 Time: 4.54
Speed Score: 96.70

Burst Score (Rank): 121.20 (49%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.26 (49%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.11 (70%)

Adam Thielen's Weekly Outlook

Week 15 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
5.2 60.5 0.35 8.5
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.9 49.4 0.3 6.9

Adam Thielen's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#77 Wide Receiver

103 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
Not Available 42.3 445.4 2.69 1 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsAdam Thielen's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »

Bottom Line

Thielen had a career year last season, but that production decreased after HC Frank Reich was fired.

The production cliff is coming for Thielen, who is going into the season at 34 years old. With the Panthers’ additions to the WR room, Thielen is unlikely to see any consistent targets this season.

He is an end-of-the-roster flier who will need injuries to be relevant.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Thielen posted a season-long stat line of 103 catches for 1,014 yards ad four TDs on 137 targets.
  • His per-game averages were generally a massive upgrade over the average of the prior four years:
    • 8.06 targets (6.40)
    • 6.06 receptions (4.30)
    • 59.6 yards (50.33)
    • 0.24 TDs (0.66)
  • HC Frank Reich was fired 11 games into the season. Thielen’s per-game production decreased after Reich left the team:
    • 6.17 targets
    • 4.33 receptions
    • 47.67 yards
    • 0 TDs
  • He ranked as the WR18 in PPR fantasy points (229.0) and WR25 in points per game (13.5).
  • He missed no games due to injury for the second consecutive season.
  • He had three top-12 finishes. But he also had six WR37 or worse finishes.
  • Thielen had the 15th-highest target share in the league (26.0%)
  • Among 89 WRs with 45+ targets, Thielen ranked 33rd in Pro Football Focus receiving grade and 48th in yards per route run (1.59.
  • Among those same 89 WRs, he was 79th in average targeted air yards (7.6) but 32nd in percentage of team air yards (26.35%).

What to Expect in 2024

  • Thielen will play under HC Dave Canales, who will be calling plays for the Panthers offense.
    • Canales was the OC for the Buccaneers last season.
    • Under Canales, the Buccaneers ranked 19th in the NFL with 568 passes.
  • The Panthers are expected to take a step forward this year after only winning two games last season. They are fourth in the NFC South and 31st in the league with a 5.5 win total at most sportsbooks.
  • The Panthers have the worst odds in the NFL to win the Super Bowl at +25000 at most sportsbooks.
  • Thielen enters his 10th season at 34 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with Thielen’s career produces 70% of his peak value at age-34.
  • He’ll face much tougher target competition this year after the Panthers added WRs Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette.

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Adam Thielen, WR CAR

6:38pm EST 12/8/24

Adam Thielen Dominates Receiving vs. Eagles

WR Adam Thielen racked up 9 receptions for 102 yards in Sunday's loss to the Eagles. The numbers look even better when you check his shares of the Carolina team totals. Thielen's 11 targets constituted 32.4% of QB Bryce Young's total pass attempts. He also commanded 47.4% of the team's total receptions and 53.4% of Panthers receiving yards.

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Panthers WR Jalen Coker (quad) is inactive for today’s game vs. the Eagles. Xavier Legette, Adam Thielen, and David Moore will continue to operate as Carolina’s clear top three WRs against Philadelphia’s top-ranked WR defense.

View all Jalen Coker Shark Bites »

Panthers WR Jalen Coker (quad) is listed as doubtful for this weekend’s game vs. the Eagles. It looks like he had a setback on Thursday and then didn’t practice on Friday. Xavier Legette, Adam Thielen, and David Moore will continue to operate as Carolina’s clear top three WRs on Sunday. The Eagles rank first in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.

View all Jalen Coker Shark Bites »

Panthers WR Jalen Coker (quad) was a full-go in Wednesday's practice, putting him on track to return for this weekend's game vs. the Eagles. We don't expect Coker's return to impact WR Xavier Legette or WR Adam Thielen's playing time. We'll see if Coker moves past WR David Moore in the pecking order, but neither guy can be trusted in Week 14 fantasy lineups.

View all Jalen Coker Shark Bites »

Panthers WR Adam Thielen led the team catching eight of 10 targets for 99 yards and a TD in his second game back from injury. It was a solid day for the Panthers WRs with Xavier Legette catching four of eight targets for 53 yards and David Moore catching five of nine targets for 40 yards.

View Full Story »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Adam Thielen, WR CAR
Dynasty MVP 3
Position Rank #97 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
227
299
509
Dynasty Write-up
Thielen stunned the fantasy community with a comeback season in 2023. But at 34 in August, he's not a guy we're betting on for sustained success -- or a repeat of 2023.
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