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Adam Thielen - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsAdam Thielen's Basic Stats

Adam Thielen
ADP: 12.4
Bye: 7
Experience: 9 Yr(s)
Age: 33.1
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 200
40 Time: 4.54
Speed Score: 96.70
Burst Score (Rank): 121.20 (50%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.26 (48%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.14 (70%)

Adam Thielen's Weekly Outlook

Week 3 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.1 42.3 0.3 6
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
3.8 38.1 0.3 5.4

Adam Thielen's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#70 Wide Receiver

82.9 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
12.4 53.3 583 4.2 1.5 0.3

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsAdam Thielen's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

Thielen is clearly on the downside of his career, which limits his ceiling.

Rather than TDs or yards, his upside comes from available target share.

We don’t really know what this offense – with so many changes – will look like. But Thielen heads toward the season as the best bet to lead in targets.

That makes him a solid WR4-5, especially in PPR.

What We Learned Last Year
  • Thielen is capable of staying healthy for a season, apparently. He played in every game for the Vikings in his age-32 campaign, ranking second on the team in targets, catches, yards, and TDs.
  • Thielen posted the fewest yards per catch of his career (10.2), despite an average depth of target that actually increased over 2021.
  • His yards after catch per reception fell precipitously. Thielen’s 2.3 marked a 1.5-yard decline vs. his 2021 average and fell 1.3 short of his career average. It ranked 91st among 97 WRs with 40+ targets last season.
  • Thielen’s 1.08 yards per route also marked a career low. He tied for 80th in that category, though he did at least match teammate K.J. Osborn.
  • Despite a decline in receptions per game, it was the third straight season that Thielen exceeded 4.0 and sixth time in seven years he did so. The only year he missed that mark since 2016 was his 10-game 2019, which also included three outings Thielen left early while dealing with hamstring issues. He was averaging 4.3 receptions per game before the initial injury.
  • Last year’s 42.1 yards per game also fell well below Thielen’s previous numbers. He averaged 61.0 across healthy games in that 2019 season. Otherwise, his 55.8 yards per game of 2021 mark Thielen’s second-lowest average.
What to Expect in 2023
  • GM Scott Fitterer called Thielen a key piece in making up for the loss of D.J. Moore after trading Moore and signing the vet. Moore is averaging 14.3 yards per catch for his career, compared with Thielen finishing each of the past two years short of 11.0.
  • So don’t expect Thielen to impersonate Moore on yardage efficiency. But the GM’s words point to plenty of targets for the veteran. And that lines up with what else the Panthers bring into 2023.
  • The leading returning player is WR Terrace Marshall, who finished second among 2022 Panthers in targets (47) and receiving yards (490), third in receptions (28).
  • He’ll compete for roles with WR D.J. Chark, who signed a one-year deal after a season in Detroit, and second-round rookie Jonathan Mingo. Chark has exceeded 30 catches in two of his five pro seasons and missed 3+ games in four of those years. Mingo brings plenty of physical ability but also didn’t reach 30 receptions in a season until his senior campaign.
  • Carolina also signed TE Hayden Hurst in free agency, for a little more than $7 million a year on a three-year contract. He has averaged just 2.5 catches and 24.5 yards per game for his five-year career but is coming off a career-high 4.0 receptions per game.
  • Last year’s Panthers sported the league’s fourth most run-heavy offense, passing on just 50.5% of plays. But they traded Moore to make a big upgrade at QB. So expect a significant boost in pass rate.

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Bryce Young, QB CAR

3:21pm EDT 9/21/23

Bryce Young not expected to play Week 3

Panthers QB Bryce Young (ankle) is not expected to play vs. the Seahawks this weekend, the team announced. That'll leave QB Andy Dalton under center, which might actually be an upgrade at this point. Young has struggled mightily so far, completing 59% of his passes and averaging 4.2 yards per attempt. Dalton played well for New Orleans last year, finishing with a 67% completion rate and 7.6 yards per attempt. Hopefully you're not relying too much on this passing game in fantasy lineups, but WR Adam Thielen and TE Hayden Hurst remain fine lower-end plays.

View all Bryce Young Shark Bites »

Panthers WR Adam Thielen (ankle) is active for today’s game vs. the Falcons. He only got in limited practices on Wednesday and Friday and was listed as questionable. It’s safe to assume that Thielen won’t be operating at 100% in this one, leaving him as a shaky fantasy bet.

View all Adam Thielen Shark Bites »

Panthers WR Adam Thielen (ankle) is expected to play vs. the Falcons on Sunday, NFL Network's Cameron Wolfe reports. Thielen only got in limited practices on Wednesday and Friday this week, so it's safe to assume that he won't be at 100%. He sits in WR4 territory in the Week 1 Rankings.

View all Adam Thielen Shark Bites »

Panthers WR Adam Thielen (ankle) is listed as questionable for this weekend's opener vs. the Falcons. He got in limited practices on Wednesday and Friday. It's unclear if this is load management for the 33-year-old or if the ankle is a legitimate problem. We'll look for an update on Thielen's situation on Sunday morning. WR Terrace Marshall (back) is not listed on the final injury report after putting in a full practice on Friday.

View all Adam Thielen Shark Bites »

Panthers WR Adam Thielen (ankle) did not practice on Thursday. That follows Wednesday's limited practice. This could have been a planned day off for Thielen. But, more likely, he hurt that ankle on Wednesday and is now in danger of missing this weekend's opener vs. the Falcons. WR D.J. Chark (hamstring) remained sidelined on Thursday. Rookie WR Jonathan Mingo could be in for a busy debut.

View all Adam Thielen Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Adam Thielen, WR CAR
Dynasty MVP 29.3
Position Rank #111 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
116
156
184
Dynasty Write-up
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