Bottom Line

Thielen is clearly on the downside of his career, which limits his ceiling.

Rather than TDs or yards, his upside comes from available target share.

We don’t really know what this offense – with so many changes – will look like. But Thielen heads toward the season as the best bet to lead in targets.

That makes him a solid WR4-5, especially in PPR.

What We Learned Last Year

• Thielen is capable of staying healthy for a season, apparently. He played in every game for the Vikings in his age-32 campaign, ranking second on the team in targets, catches, yards, and TDs.
• Thielen posted the fewest yards per catch of his career (10.2), despite an average depth of target that actually increased over 2021.
• His yards after catch per reception fell precipitously. Thielen’s 2.3 marked a 1.5-yard decline vs. his 2021 average and fell 1.3 short of his career average. It ranked 91st among 97 WRs with 40+ targets last season.
• Thielen’s 1.08 yards per route also marked a career low. He tied for 80th in that category, though he did at least match teammate K.J. Osborn.
• Despite a decline in receptions per game, it was the third straight season that Thielen exceeded 4.0 and sixth time in seven years he did so. The only year he missed that mark since 2016 was his 10-game 2019, which also included three outings Thielen left early while dealing with hamstring issues. He was averaging 4.3 receptions per game before the initial injury.
• Last year’s 42.1 yards per game also fell well below Thielen’s previous numbers. He averaged 61.0 across healthy games in that 2019 season. Otherwise, his 55.8 yards per game of 2021 mark Thielen’s second-lowest average.

What to Expect in 2023

• GM Scott Fitterer called Thielen a key piece in making up for the loss of D.J. Moore after trading Moore and signing the vet. Moore is averaging 14.3 yards per catch for his career, compared with Thielen finishing each of the past two years short of 11.0.
• So don’t expect Thielen to impersonate Moore on yardage efficiency. But the GM’s words point to plenty of targets for the veteran. And that lines up with what else the Panthers bring into 2023.
• The leading returning player is WR Terrace Marshall, who finished second among 2022 Panthers in targets (47) and receiving yards (490), third in receptions (28).
• He’ll compete for roles with WR D.J. Chark, who signed a one-year deal after a season in Detroit, and second-round rookie Jonathan Mingo. Chark has exceeded 30 catches in two of his five pro seasons and missed 3+ games in four of those years. Mingo brings plenty of physical ability but also didn’t reach 30 receptions in a season until his senior campaign.
• Carolina also signed TE Hayden Hurst in free agency, for a little more than $7 million a year on a three-year contract. He has averaged just 2.5 catches and 24.5 yards per game for his five-year career but is coming off a career-high 4.0 receptions per game.
• Last year’s Panthers sported the league’s fourth most run-heavy offense, passing on just 50.5% of plays. But they traded Moore to make a big upgrade at QB. So expect a significant boost in pass rate.