Adam Thielen - Fantasy Points Outlook

What You Need to Know:

• Thielen remained a prestigious TD scorer in 2021, notching 10 on 67 catches. Since Kirk Cousins arrived in 2018, Thielen’s TD rate is a whopping 13.7%.
• Amazingly, Thielen turned 13 red zone targets into 7 scores. There’s no doubting his strong rapport with Cousins.
• In 2021, though, the WR missed 4 games. He suffered a Week 13 high-ankle sprain, then aggravated the injury in Week 16 and sat out the final 2 games.
• Thielen needed ankle surgery in late December. He was back at 100% well before OTAs.
• Overall, the now 32-year-old posted 67-726-10 on a career-low 10.8 YPC.
• Thielen also posted just 1.63 yards per route run, his lowest mark since 2015.
• His 9.5-yard average depth of target also marked a low since ’15.
• Boosted by a minuscule drop rate, though, Thielen caught an impressive 77.9% of his targets. His pre-2021 average was around 70%.
• 2022 ushered in new HC Kevin O’Connell, formerly the Rams’ OC, and a fresh offensive approach.
• According to ESPN’s Courtney Cronin, the new-look offense will have “a heavy dose of pre-snap motion and movement, reliance on three-receiver sets, a zone run game and play-action concepts.” Essentially — a lot of what the Rams do under Sean McVay.
• The Rams also like to go up-tempo. As a snapshot, they ranked 4th in situation neutral pace last year, per Football Outsiders. The Vikings were down at 17th.
• Justin Jefferson returns as a target hog; he saw a nearly 29% target share in 2021. Irv Smith also returns after missing all of last season with a torn meniscus.
• For dynasty owners: The Vikings restructured Thielen’s contract over the offseason. There’s a potential out after this coming season, although he's technically signed through the 2024 season.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

When healthy, Thielen continued to produce at a high level in 2021. Boosted by TDs, he finished as a top-24 WR 6 times across 11 healthy games.

At 32, and with 11 missed games over the past 3 seasons, there’s clearly some decline risk. Whenever he’s on the field, though, he’ll continue to project as a strong TD bet — especially with an upgraded coaching staff.