Kenneth Gainwell - Fantasy Points Outlook

What You Need to Know:

• Gainwell opened his rookie season as the #2 RB, garnering 8.1 opportunities (carries + targets) per game through the 1st 7 weeks.
• His role shrank after Miles Sanders’ Week 7 injury. His carry numbers were deceiving, as Gainwell saw a slight uptick from 3.7 to 4.7 per game. But the total was inflated by:
  
  • 13 carries in a blowout win at Detroit, nearly all of which came after starters left
  • 12 carries at the Jets, with Boston Scott and Jordan Howard out; Sanders left early
  • 12 carries in a meaningless finale that saw Philly sit starters
• Philadelphia also sported a run-dominant offense over that span, passing on just 44% of offensive plays.
• Gainwell averaged just 1.6 targets per game from Week 8 on, with 12 of his 19 targets over that span coming in the Jets game and Week 18.
• He did wind up leading Eagles RBs in targets for the season, with 50.
• Despite some early opportunities and TDs near the goal line, Gainwell finished just 5th on the team in carries in the red zone, inside the 10-yard line and inside the 5.
• The Eagles leaned more on Jordan Howard and Boston Scott after Sanders went down.
• The team has left Howard lingering on the open market but re-signed Scott (1 year, $1.75 million). Philly made no other significant RB additions (unless undrafted free agency Kennedy Brooks turns into something).
• Gainwell sat out the 2020 season over COVID concerns. He logged 1 season of significant duty at Memphis, rushing for 1,459 yards (6.3 average) and 13 TDs on a team-high 231 carries and ranking 2nd among Tigers with 51 receptions. He consumed 610 yards and scored 3 TDs on those, playing on the same team with Antonio Gibson, new Steelers WR Calvin Austin and Packers practice-squad RB Patrick Taylor.
• Gainwell tested out just average in both SPARQx and speed score ahead of last year’s draft.
• Eagles insider John McMullen believes RB Kenneth Gainwell "seems to be penciled in for high-leverage situations like third downs, the hurry-up offense, and goal-line work."

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Gainwell followed a promising start to his rookie year with a disappointing 2nd half. There’s room for him to take on – and keep – a larger role this season, especially with Miles Sanders’ injury history. Gainwell does have a shot to lead the backfield receiving, even when Sanders is healthy. But 2021 showed us he’s no lock to run ahead of Boston Scott (who is back). Ultimately, Gainwell makes for a decent fantasy reserve in what should be an improved offense. He falls short of being a high-upside option even in that range, though.