Khalil Shakir Fantasy Overview

2025 Role & Results

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Shakir caught 72 balls for 719 yards and 4 TDs across 16 games last year. He tied for 19th among WRs in catches but ranked just 34th in yards and tied for 40th in TDs.

Shakir finished 42nd at the position in PPR points per game; 45th in half-PPR.

He didn’t boast much weekly upside, scoring as a top-12 PPR receiver just twice. But he did crack the top-36 in nine of 16 outings.

Usage & Role

Shakir led Bills WRs in snaps (60.1%) and routes (70.8%) last year. That route rate ranked just 56th among all WRs, though, as Shakir was mostly limited to 3-WR sets. He ran 70.2% of his routes from the slot.

Shakir’s 95 targets tied for 32nd among WRs, and his 19.5% target share ranked 34th. He was used almost entirely near the line of scrimmage, posting a 3.8-yard average target depth that was the lowest among 76 WRs with 50+ targets.

Shakir finished 52nd at his position in expected PPR points per game.

Efficiency & Regression

Shakir caught 75.8% of his targets last year but averaged just 10.0 yards per catch. That’s about what we’d expect based on his minuscule average target depth.

Shakir’s 1.71 yards per route ranked 32nd among 76 WRs with 50+ targets. He finished 42nd in Pro Football Focus receiving grade.

Much of Shakir’s production came after the catch. His 7.6 yards after catch per reception ranked second among those 76 WRs with 50+ targets, and his +1.9 yards after catch over expected ranked sixth among all players with 45+ targets.

Offensive Context

The Bills ranked fourth in points last year, their sixth straight top-6 finish. They also ranked fourth in total yards.

It was a run-leaning offense, though, finishing:

• 31st in pass rate
• 30th in neutral pass rate
• 28th in pass rate over expected

Still, strong efficiency boosted the Bills to 15th in passing yards and seventh in TDs.

Historical Production & Trends

Shakir’s production and efficiency were down a bit last year from 2024, when he finished WR37 in PPR points per game.

Shakir was deployed very similarly in 2024, with 72.9% of his routes from the slot and a 5.6-yard average target depth.

Injury History & Durability

Shakir suffered a high-ankle sprain in early August last year but was ready for the start of the season. He played 16 games before sitting out a meaningless regular-season finale.

Shakir had surgery on that ankle after the season but was on the field for April OTAs. It doesn’t seem like the injury will impact his 2026.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Projected Role & Competition

The Bills return Shakir and the rest of their top seven targets from a year ago:

• Keon Coleman
• Dalton Kincaid
• Dawson Knox
• James Cook
• Josh Palmer
• Ty Johnson

But Shakir faces new target competition after the Bills swung a trade for WR D.J. Moore in March. Buffalo sent the 60th pick to Chicago in exchange for Moore and a fifth-rounder.

It’s a hefty price to pay for a guy coming off a disappointing 2025. Moore posted career lows in catches (50) and yards (682), while ranking 60th in yards per route and 55th in PFF receiving grade among 76 qualifying WRs.

Shakir beat Moore in both of those metrics.

Moore posted a 98-966-6 line in 2024, though, and had topped 1,100 yards in four of the five seasons before that. He turned just 29 in April.

Whether, and to what extent, Moore bounces back this season will have a significant impact on Shakir’s target volume.

Supporting Cast

QB Josh Allen will be back under center for the Bills. He’s led Buffalo to top-9 finishes in passing yards in five of the last six seasons and top-7 finishes in passing TDs in all six.

The offensive line returns four of five starters, with Alec Anderson expected to replace David Edwards at LG. Edwards left for New Orleans in free agency after ranking 14th among 63 guards in PFF’s 2025 pass-blocking grades. Anderson went undrafted in 2022 and has played just 479 snaps since.

That spot will be worth monitoring this summer but this still projects as a strong O-line.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

The Bills fired Sean McDermott in January, ending a nine-year run as HC. The team replaced him by promoting Joe Brady.

Brady spent the last 2.5 seasons as Buffalo’s OC after taking over for Ken Dorsey midway through the 2023 campaign. The Bills went run-heavy over the second half of that season, posting a 48.2% pass rate and 52.0% neutral pass rate. Here’s where Buffalo has ranked in those metrics the last two years:

We’ll see what the departure of defensive-minded McDermott means for the run-pass split, but we’re expecting this to remain a run-leaning offense in 2026.

But Shakir’s emergence in 2024 coincided with Brady taking over as play caller, so it’s not all bad news.

Paths to Ceiling

Despite leading the Bills in targets in each of the last two seasons, Shakir has finished just WR37 and WR42 in PPR points per game.

His path to a higher finish comes in the TD department, where Shakir has totaled just 8 TDs on a 5.4% TD rate over the last two years. More scores could vault him into WR3 territory.

Risk Factors

The arrival of Moore and a healthier Kincaid could push Shakir to third among Bills in targets. That’d likely leave him as a non-factor in fantasy football.