Khalil Shakir - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Shakir made strides in year two, excelling as a catch-and-run threat down the stretch.

Dalton Kincaid – plus new arrivals Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel – turn up the 2024 target competition. But opportunity certainly looks improved after the team moved on from Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis.

At a late-round price, Shakir supplies a cheap way to gain exposure to Josh Allen.

What We Learned Last Year

• Shakir, a former Round 5 pick, made progress in his second pro season.
  • Working as a short-range target (7.4-yard aDOT), Shakir flashed strong hands with an 87.5% catch rate.
  • Only 6 of his 56 targets came 20+ yards downfield.
  • Shakir lined up in the slot on most passing snaps (76.8%).
• Shakir’s role increased by mid-season.
  • He saw five targets over the first six weeks. After that point, he saw 4+ targets eight times, including in the postseason.
  • Two of his 4 TDs surfaced in the postseason.
• Per Next Gen Stats, Shakir ranked 3rd in yards over expected after the catch.
  • Overall, he averaged an impressive 7.0 yards after catch per reception.
• Among 109 charted WRs, Shakir ranked 69th in ESPN Analytics’ “Open Score.” This aims to measure “the likelihood a receiver would be able to complete a catch…if he were targeted.”

What to Expect in 2024

• The Bills traded Stefon Diggs and let Gabe Davis walk in free agency.
  • That removes 241 targets from the 2023 offense.
• Buffalo’s main WR additions include Curtis Samuel and Keon Coleman.
  • Samuel, 28, spent the past three years in Washington. After an injury-ruined 2021, he filled a short-range slot role from 2022-2023.
  • His contract – which includes $15 million guaranteed – suggests the Bills will feature him.
  • Coleman arrived as an early Round 2 pick.
  • While he projects more on the outside, Coleman’s development will play a key role in Shakir’s final target count.
• Shakir has consistently been a standout at Bills training camp. He's clearly entered the trust of Josh Allen.
• OC Joe Brady returns for his first full season on the job in Buffalo.
  • When he took over last year, Buffalo leaned more on the run. If that continues, the volume squeeze will likely impact Shakir.