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Shakir has merely flirted with WR3 production over the last two seasons and now faces increased target competition from D.J. Moore.
That leaves Shakir as an unattractive 2026 fantasy option with an unexciting ceiling and depressed floor. He’s fine as a WR5, but you can probably do better.
Customize Shakir’s projection for your exact league settings inside the Draft War Room.
Shakir caught 72 balls for 719 yards and 4 TDs across 16 games last year. He tied for 19th among WRs in catches but ranked just 34th in yards and tied for 40th in TDs.
Shakir finished 42nd at the position in PPR points per game; 45th in half-PPR.
He didn’t boast much weekly upside, scoring as a top-12 PPR receiver just twice. But he did crack the top-36 in nine of 16 outings.
Shakir led Bills WRs in snaps (60.1%) and routes (70.8%) last year. That route rate ranked just 56th among all WRs, though, as Shakir was mostly limited to 3-WR sets. He ran 70.2% of his routes from the slot.
Shakir’s 95 targets tied for 32nd among WRs, and his 19.5% target share ranked 34th. He was used almost entirely near the line of scrimmage, posting a 3.8-yard average target depth that was the lowest among 76 WRs with 50+ targets.
Shakir finished 52nd at his position in expected PPR points per game.
Shakir caught 75.8% of his targets last year but averaged just 10.0 yards per catch. That’s about what we’d expect based on his minuscule average target depth.
Shakir’s 1.71 yards per route ranked 32nd among 76 WRs with 50+ targets. He finished 42nd in Pro Football Focus receiving grade.
Much of Shakir’s production came after the catch. His 7.6 yards after catch per reception ranked second among those 76 WRs with 50+ targets, and his +1.9 yards after catch over expected ranked sixth among all players with 45+ targets.
The Bills ranked fourth in points last year, their sixth straight top-6 finish. They also ranked fourth in total yards.
It was a run-leaning offense, though, finishing:
Still, strong efficiency boosted the Bills to 15th in passing yards and seventh in TDs.
Shakir’s production and efficiency were down a bit last year from 2024, when he finished WR37 in PPR points per game.
Shakir was deployed very similarly in 2024, with 72.9% of his routes from the slot and a 5.6-yard average target depth.
Shakir suffered a high-ankle sprain in early August last year but was ready for the start of the season. He played 16 games before sitting out a meaningless regular-season finale.
Shakir had surgery on that ankle after the season but was on the field for April OTAs. It doesn’t seem like the injury will impact his 2026.
The Bills return Shakir and the rest of their top seven targets from a year ago:
But Shakir faces new target competition after the Bills swung a trade for WR D.J. Moore in March. Buffalo sent the 60th pick to Chicago in exchange for Moore and a fifth-rounder.
It’s a hefty price to pay for a guy coming off a disappointing 2025. Moore posted career lows in catches (50) and yards (682), while ranking 60th in yards per route and 55th in PFF receiving grade among 76 qualifying WRs.
Shakir beat Moore in both of those metrics.
Moore posted a 98-966-6 line in 2024, though, and had topped 1,100 yards in four of the five seasons before that. He turned just 29 in April.
Whether, and to what extent, Moore bounces back this season will have a significant impact on Shakir’s target volume.
QB Josh Allen will be back under center for the Bills. He’s led Buffalo to top-9 finishes in passing yards in five of the last six seasons and top-7 finishes in passing TDs in all six.
The offensive line returns four of five starters, with Alec Anderson expected to replace David Edwards at LG. Edwards left for New Orleans in free agency after ranking 14th among 63 guards in PFF’s 2025 pass-blocking grades. Anderson went undrafted in 2022 and has played just 479 snaps since.
That spot will be worth monitoring this summer but this still projects as a strong O-line.
The Bills fired Sean McDermott in January, ending a nine-year run as HC. The team replaced him by promoting Joe Brady.
Brady spent the last 2.5 seasons as Buffalo’s OC after taking over for Ken Dorsey midway through the 2023 campaign. The Bills went run-heavy over the second half of that season, posting a 48.2% pass rate and 52.0% neutral pass rate. Here’s where Buffalo has ranked in those metrics the last two years:
We’ll see what the departure of defensive-minded McDermott means for the run-pass split, but we’re expecting this to remain a run-leaning offense in 2026.
But Shakir’s emergence in 2024 coincided with Brady taking over as play caller, so it’s not all bad news.
Despite leading the Bills in targets in each of the last two seasons, Shakir has finished just WR37 and WR42 in PPR points per game.
His path to a higher finish comes in the TD department, where Shakir has totaled just 8 TDs on a 5.4% TD rate over the last two years. More scores could vault him into WR3 territory.
The arrival of Moore and a healthier Kincaid could push Shakir to third among Bills in targets. That’d likely leave him as a non-factor in fantasy football.
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D.J. Moore 'Getting No. 1' Treatment
D.J. Moore 'Getting No. 1' Treatment
ESPN's Alaina Getzenberg reports that WR D.J. Moore has enjoyed a strong start to his first training camp with the Bills. Moore reportedly made "highlight catches" on each of the first two days and looks like the lead receiver.
Bills Add Productive WR Skyler Bell in Round 4
Bills Add Productive WR Skyler Bell in Round 4
The Buffalo Bills selected UConn WR Skyler Bell in Round 4 of the 2026 NFL Draft. Bell caught 69 passes for 756 yards and 6 TDs across three seasons at Wisconsin before transferring to UConn in 2024. There, he became the program’s first consensus first-team All-American in 2025. He ranked fourth nationally in receptions, second in yards, and tied for third in TD catches. Bell offers inside-outside flexibility, running 39.1% of his collegiate routes from the slot. He also ranked eighth among qualifying WRs with 3.14 yards per route. At 6’0, 192 pounds, Bell aced the NFL Combine with a 4.40 forty-yard dash, a 41-inch vertical, and an 11-foot, 1-inch broad jump.
Khalil Shakir Working Back From Ankle Surgery
Khalil Shakir Working Back From Ankle Surgery
Bills WR Khalil Shakir is recovering from offseason ankle surgery, GM Brandon Beane said Monday. Shakir did "some things" on the team's first day of offseason activities, Beane added, so it doesn't sound like this will have any impact on his 2026 campaign.
New Role Coming For Khalil Shakir?
New Role Coming For Khalil Shakir?
Bills HC Joe Brady talked up a bigger and more diverse role for WR Khalil Shakir. "I think Khalil Shakir can play inside and outside," Brady said from the Combine. "There’s really not a lot of things that Khalil can’t do. There’s definitely ways to get the ball into his hands in different ways, and we have to continue to grow his game because he’s such a huge component to our offense. He’s one of our best football players, and when the ball is in his hand, good things are happening."
What New OC Pete Carmichael Could Mean For Bills Offense
What New OC Pete Carmichael Could Mean For Bills Offense
The Bills are hiring Pete Carmichael as OC, according to multiple reports. Carmichael spent 19 of the last 20 seasons with Sean Payton, first in New Orleans and then in Denver the past two. Bills HC Joe Brady worked under Carmichael as an offensive assistant with the Saints in 2017 and 2018. Brady has already said that he'll continue to call plays in 2026, but we'll see how much Payton flavor Carmichael brings to the offense. Former QB Chase Daniel, who played for the Saints in 2017, expects more play-action passing from the Bills going forward. QB Josh Allen already ranked fifth among 45 qualifying QBs in percentage of dropbacks to feature play action last year. Allen completed 71.7% of his passes at 8.2 yards per attempt off play action, ranking ninth and 15th among those 45 QBs.
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