Luther Burden III Fantasy Overview

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Burden caught 47 balls for 652 yards and 2 TDs across 15 games last year, finishing 57th among WRs in PPR points per game.

He cracked the top-25 WRs just four times, although three of those came over Burden’s final four games. That included a WR1 overall finish on an 8-138-1 line in Week 17.

Burden ranked 10th among WRs in PPR points per game from Week 14 through Week 18.

Usage & Role

Burden never captured a full-time role last year, finishing with a 41.0% route rate.

He opened the season as Chicago’s No. 4 WR behind Rome Odunze, D.J. Moore, and Olamide Zaccheaus. Burden didn’t reach a 40% route rate until Week 10. He hovered between 47.5% and 65.7% over the final seven regular-season games. Burden ran routes on 63.6% and 63.8% of Chicago’s pass plays in two playoff games.

Although he primarily played in 3-WR sets, Burden lined up both out wide (53.4% of snaps) and in the slot (38.4%). He also got nine total snaps in the backfield.

He was typically used near the line of scrimmage, finishing with a 7.5-yard average target depth that ranked 69th among 76 qualifying WRs. Burden led the Bears and ranked 11th among all WRs with 17 screen targets.

Efficiency & Regression

The lack of a full-time role for Burden masked some elite per-target and per-route efficiency metrics.

He hauled in 78.3% of his targets and averaged 13.9 yards per catch. Burden’s 10.9 yards per target led the Bears and ranked fifth among 76 qualifying WRs league-wide. He was especially lethal after the catch, averaging 7.3 yards per reception. That ranked 3rd among those qualifying WRs.

Burden was also excellent on a per-route basis, posting 0.26 targets per route and 2.69 yards per route. Those marks ranked 11th and third, respectively, among those 76 qualifying WRs. Both marks led all rookies. And the 2.69 yards per route was the highest by a rookie WR with 50+ targets since Odell Beckham Jr. in 2014.

Here’s the full list of rookie WRs to average 2.6+ yards per route on 50+ targets over the last 20 seasons:

• Odell Beckham (2.75)
• Luther Burden (2.69)
• A.J. Brown (2.67)
• Justin Jefferson (2.66)

Burden’s efficiency came on a smaller sample. He ran 242 routes as a rookie. The other three all topped 390.

If we look just at Burden’s final nine games, when his playing time grew, he averaged 2.20 yards per route. That’s quite a bit lower than his season-long average but still would have ranked 14th among those 76 qualifying WRs.

Burden also fared well in film-based metrics. Among those 76 WRs, he ranked:

• 11th in Fantasy Points separation score
• 30th in ESPN receiver score
• 19th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade

Offensive Context

The 2025 Bears finished sixth in total yards and ninth in points. It was a run-leaning offense, ranking:

• 24th in pass rate
• 21st in neutral pass rate
• 20th in pass rate over expected

But the Bears ranked sixth in offensive pace (seconds per play) and second in total plays. That vaulted them to 10th in pass attempts.

QB Caleb Williams had an uneven sophomore season. He flashed his ceiling on plenty of occasions but also ranked 36th or worse among 42 qualifying QBs in:

• Completion rate
• Adjusted completion rate
• Completion rate over expected
• On-target pass percentage

Williams’ inaccuracy didn’t hurt Burden much, at least in part because of his low average target depth. Burden’s 87% catchable-target rate ranked third among 76 qualifying WRs.

Historical Production & Trends

Burden was the 39th overall pick in 2025 after an uneven college career at Missouri.

He flashed as a freshman, leading the team with six receiving scores and ranking second with 45 catches. Then he broke out for a huge sophomore season: 86 catches, 1,212 yards, and 9 TDs. Burden ranked top-20 nationally in catches and yards. His 3.29 yards per route was good for seventh among 287 WRs with 50+ targets.

But Burden took a big step back in 2024, finishing with 61 catches for just 676 yards and 6 TDs. Missouri fell from 262.3 passing yards per game in 2023 to 225.1 in 2024. But Burden was out-produced in receiving yards and yards per route by WR Theo Wease, who went undrafted last year.

Burden showed well at the Combine, clocking a 4.41-second 40 time at 6’0 and 206 pounds.

Injury History & Durability

Burden was sidelined for much of last spring and the beginning of training camp with a hamstring injury. He was ready for the start of the season but missed two games later on:

• Week 9 with a concussion
• Week 16 with an ankle injury

Burden did not suffer any significant injuries at Missouri.

Projected Role & Competition

Burden finds additional opportunity in 2026 with the offseason departure of WR D.J. Moore to Buffalo. Moore ranked second among Bears last year with 85 targets (14.8% share). More importantly for Burden, Moore led the team’s WRs in snaps (84.8%) and routes (81.2%).

The Bears also lost WR Olamide Zaccheaus, who drew an 11.3% target share last year, in free agency.

Chicago made no significant offseason additions to the pass-catching corps, only drafting WR Zavion Thomas and TE Sam Roush in Round 3.

Burden is a lock for more playing time this season and should find himself in a full-time role.

WR Rome Odunze and TE Colston Loveland will be Burden’s primary target competition. Both guys out-produced Burden on a per-game basis last year. But Burden beat them in per-route efficiency.

Burden will be a top-3 target in what should be a concentrated passing game this season. And he has the potential to lead the Bears in targets.

Supporting Cast

QB Caleb Williams is back for his third NFL campaign. He improved from Year 1 to Year 2 and flashed an exciting ceiling at times last season. But he’ll need to improve further to fully unlock Burden’s upside.

The Bears also have a couple of questions on the offensive line.

LT Ozzy Trapilo went down with a ruptured patellar tendon in last year’s Wild Card win over the Packers. That has him unlikely to be ready for the start of this season and leaves Braxton Jones, Theo Benedet, and Jedrick Wills competing for the starting job this summer.

The Bears also lost C Drew Dalman to retirement this offseason. He’s expected to be replaced by Garrett Bradbury, who was acquired from New England via trade in March. Bradbury started all 17 games for the Patriots last year but ranked just 21st among 36 qualifying centers in Pro Football Focus’ 2025 pass-blocking grades.

Chicago returns three 2025 starters in RT Darnell Wright, RG Jonah Jackson, and LG Joe Thuney. But this unit could take at least a slight step back this season.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

HC Ben Johnson returns for Year 2 with the Bears. Chicago went from bottom-5 in points and yards in 2024 to top-9 in both categories under Johnson. That followed this three-year run in Detroit for Johnson:

Johnson has been a run-leaning play caller, with all four of his offenses finishing between 20th and 25th in neutral pass rate.

But he’s also landed all four of those offenses inside the top-14 in total plays, including top-2 finishes in 2024 and 2025. That’s helped each of Johnson’s teams rank in the top half of the league in pass attempts.

Here’s where his four offenses have finished in total WR PPR points:

• 2022: ninth
• 2023: sixth
• 2024: fourth
• 2025: 14th

Paths to Ceiling

Burden was elite on a per-route basis last year. He’s a virtual lock for more playing time this season and also has a chance to earn more volume with Moore gone.

If Burden can pair increased volume with high-end efficiency, he could score as a WR1 for fantasy squads.

Risk Factors

We never saw Burden in a full-time role last year. And much of his production came on designed screens, which could be taken away by the coaching staff.

QB Caleb Williams’ erratic play also adds downside.

Burden could finish third on the 2026 Bears in targets and be a frustrating WR3 in fantasy.