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Nyheim Hines - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Nyheim Hines
IND

RB IND

#46 Running Back

93 Projected Points

ADP: 11.4
Bye: 14
Experience: 3 Yr(s)
Age: 24
Height: 5'8"
Weight: 198
40 Time: 4.38

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#46 Running Back

93 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
11.4 73 299 2 0 1 55 397 2

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

High Floor

79.1

DS Projection

93

Consensus

38 other sites
68.9

High Ceiling

125.6

Ceiling Likelihood

Low
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Hines ranked 3rd among RBs in targets (77), catches (64), receiving yards (482) and receiving TDs (4) last year.
  • He added an 89-380-3 rushing line to finish 18th among RBs in PPR points and 26th in non-PPR.
  • Hines scored as a top-24 PPR RB in 8 weeks -- 18th most. He didn’t bring much of a ceiling, though, with just 3 games of 17.5+ PPR points. That ranked 23rd at the position.
  • His 4.3 yards per carry and 6.3 yards per target were both career bests. He ranked 43rd among 75 qualifiers in yards per carry and 10th out of 41 in yards per target.
  • Pro Football Focus graded Hines 1st in receiving among those 41 qualifiers. He finished 48th out of 75 qualifiers in rushing grade.
  • Hines averaged 5 targets per game on a 14.1% share over his first 11 games. That dropped to 4 targets and a 12.1% share over the final 6 (including playoffs) as Jonathan Taylor took on a bigger role.
  • Hines’ PPR scoring average over those last 6 games would have ranked 36th among RBs for the season.
  • Taylor returns for his 2nd season in 2021, and the Colts are also expected to get Marlon Mack back after he suffered a torn Achilles in last year’s opener.
  • Indianapolis lost OC Nick Sirianni and replaced him with former QBs coach Marcus Brady. With HC Frank Reich back, the offense should be similar to last year.
  • The QB change from Philip Rivers to Carson Wentz might mean fewer targets to Colts RBs. Rivers’ last 3 teams have targeted RBs at rates of 27.0%, 29.6% and 24.3%. Wentz’s last 3 teams: 17.0%, 18.6% and 16.1%.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

On the strength of a 64-482-4 receiving line, Hines finished 18th among RBs in PPR points and 26th in non-PPR last year.

But we’re projecting a decline in 2021. Hines lost more receiving work to RB Jonathan Taylor late last season, a trend which figures to continue. The return of RB Marlon Mack could cost Hines a bit more work. And the QB change from Philip Rivers to Carson Wentz might mean fewer targets to the RBs.

Hines should still bring RB3 or flex value in PPR leagues. We wouldn’t bother with him in non-PPR.

 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport says "don't be surprised" if RB Nyheim Hines gets the "bulk" of the Colts' carries against the Packers today. Hines is coming off a breakout game last week -- and it sounds like the Colts want to ride the hot hand. This still figures to be a fluid situation with RBs Jonathan Taylor and Jordan Wilkins in the mix, but Hines looks like the best fantasy play among the 3.

View all Nyheim Hines Shark Bites »

Colts RB Nyheim Hines "has been everywhere" in camp, The Athletic's Zak Keefer writes. "I’ve never seen Hines this active in the offense," Keefer continues. "It’s probably not a stretch to say the third-year running back has caught more passes from [QB Philip] Rivers than anyone else. They’ve been mostly screen passes and dump-offs, but it’s likely a snippet into some of what we’ll see this season. Instead of throwing the ball away, Rivers will look for Hines. And Hines will look for space." Hines has very little rushing upside and was inefficient in the passing game last year. But volume trumps all. And if Hines is going to see a bunch of targets, he'll be useful in PPR leagues.

View all Nyheim Hines Shark Bites »

The Colts selected North Carolina State RB Nyheim Hines in the 4th round of the 2018 NFL Draft. Hines blazed a 4.38-second 40 time at the Combine and plays just as fast. He averaged 5.4 yards per carry and 10.5 yards per catch over his 3-year college career, while also scoring 3 times in the return game. Hines goes just 5’8, 198 pounds and never reached 200 carries in a season at N.C. State. But he caught 20+ balls in all 3 campaigns, including 43 in 2016. He has the look of at least a pass-catching, change-of-pace asset as a pro, with the potential to emerge as a committee back on the Gio Bernard-Duke Johnson spectrum. He joins Marlon Mack in a relatively wide-open Colts backfield. Mack looks like the early favorite to lead the team in carries, but there’s plenty of room for Hines to carve out a significant role.

View all Nyheim Hines Shark Bites »

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