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Nyheim Hines - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Nyheim Hines
IND

RB IND

#46 Running Back

92 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 14
Experience: 3 Yr(s)
Age: 25
Height: 5'8"
Weight: 198
40 Time: 4.38

Weekly Outlook

Week 20 Projections

This player does not have a weekly prediction

Rest Of Way Outlook

Week 13
After starting off the year with 2 double digit fantasy point games in half-PPR in the first 3 games, Hines has only hit that mark once since Week 4. A lot of this has coincided with the complete dominance of Jonathan Taylor. Since Week 4, Hines has only averaged 5.5 touches and 5 fantasy points per game. Week 13 was no different as Hines only saw 6 touches, leading to another disappointing fantasy day. This usage has made Hines droppable in most formats as even in losses where the Colts are trailing, Hines hasn’t produced much for fantasy.
Heading into the bye week, fantasy managers holding onto Hines can drop him as he doesn’t offer much outside of a Taylor injury. However, even if Taylor were to go down, Marlon Mack would assume early down work. This makes Mack a better handcuff and stash for fantasy managers who own Taylor heading into the fantasy playoffs.
Week 10
If you started Hines coming off a nice Week 9, then he let you down big time against the Jaguars. In that case, we have news that you could take as either good or bad.

Sunday’s lackluster outing vs. Jacksonville stood much closer to his norm. Over his past 5 games, Hines has played 23%, 28%, 31%, 45% and 28% of snaps. That high point came in the comparatively big game against the Jets.

Week 9 marked 1 of just 4 times through 10 games that Hines has topped 4 carries. It also produced 1 of just the 4 times this season he has topped 2 receptions.

Don’t bet on touch volume for Hines. He now trails Taylor even in receptions, by 3. Use Hines only when you need to.
Week 9
Hines had easily his best game of the season in Thursday night’s win over the Jets. The highlight was an impressive 34-yard TD run in the 1st quarter that showcased Hines’ high-end athleticism He finished with 74 rush yards and the score, plus 34 receiving yards.

Hines still totaled just 10 touches, though. And that was his highest mark since Week 3. He averaged 3.8 carries and 2.6 targets from Week 4 to 8. Hines has been ceding more work -- even on passing downs -- to RB Jonathan Taylor.

All that’s to say that Hines is still not a bankable fantasy option going forward, despite the productive Week 9.
Week 6
With the Colts dominating Houston from the start, there wasn’t much need for the passing-down back’s services. Hines only saw 5 touches in the Colts’ 31-3 win.

Hines’ 2 highest touch counts came not only in losses, but in the 2 games in which Marlon Mack was inactive. A Mack trade before the deadline might prove more helpful for Hines than for Jonathan Taylor, by supplying a few more touches a week.

In the meantime, fantasy managers will need to project game flow to start Hines. In games where the Colts could be trailing or in a high-scoring game, Hines is on the PPR flex radar. In games where they’re favored, it might be best to fade him.

This week finds the Colts on the road 4-point underdogs at San Francisco. Hines could find more work, but he’s a low end flex at best in week 7.
Week 3
Carson Wentz was supposed to be a downgrade from Philip Rivers for RB targets. But Hines has now caught 5+ balls in each of the 2 games Wentz has completed. It took until the 6th game in 2020 for Hines to reach 5 catches for the 2nd time.

His 6 targets ranked 3rd on the team in the loss to the Titans, trailing Michael Pittman (12) and Zach Pascal (7). Hines also produced the Colts’ only rushing score of the game, from 9 yards out in the 2nd quarter. That marked Hines’ 2nd carry from inside the 10 this season, according to Pro Football Reference. He has yet to see a touch inside the 5, though. Jonathan Taylor leads the league with 6 attempts in that range.

Expect Hines to continue to see Kareem Hunt-type usage -- perhaps with a better target outlook than Hines. That will mean inconsistent touch counts and production, but we knew that when we drafted Hines. His 16 targets through 3 games ties for just 7th among RBs but puts him ahead of last year’s pace. Hines’ 77 targets in 2020 ranked 3rd among RBs.
Week 1
Hines got a nice contract right before the season and his opening day usage didn’t disappoint. Hines was featured in the offense, receiving 15 touches and was only 1 target behind team leader Jonathan Taylor. We should point out that the game flow was ideal for Hines as the Colts trailed by double digits from the 2nd quarter on. Something to monitor is Hines only ran 22 routes to 18 for Taylor on 44 Colts drop backs. Overall, the usage is encouraging as many were left wondering if he could repeat his 2020 performance after the retirement of checkdown king Philip Rivers.
Heading into Week 2 the Colts take on the Rams, which should lead to a similar game flow after Los Angeles hung 34 on the Bears. This makes Hines a solid flex in PPR leagues.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Hines ranked 3rd among RBs in targets (77), catches (64), receiving yards (482) and receiving TDs (4) last year.
  • He added an 89-380-3 rushing line to finish 18th among RBs in PPR points and 26th in non-PPR.
  • Hines scored as a top-24 PPR RB in 8 weeks -- 18th most. He didn’t bring much of a ceiling, though, with just 3 games of 17.5+ PPR points. That ranked 23rd at the position.
  • His 4.3 yards per carry and 6.3 yards per target were both career bests. He ranked 43rd among 75 qualifiers in yards per carry and 10th out of 41 in yards per target.
  • Pro Football Focus graded Hines 1st in receiving among those 41 qualifiers. He finished 48th out of 75 qualifiers in rushing grade.
  • Hines averaged 5 targets per game on a 14.1% share over his first 11 games. That dropped to 4 targets and a 12.1% share over the final 6 (including playoffs) as Jonathan Taylor took on a bigger role.
  • Hines’ PPR scoring average over those last 6 games would have ranked 36th among RBs for the season.
  • Taylor returns for his 2nd season in 2021, and the Colts are also expected to get Marlon Mack back after he suffered a torn Achilles in last year’s opener.
  • Indianapolis lost OC Nick Sirianni and replaced him with former QBs coach Marcus Brady. With HC Frank Reich back, the offense should be similar to last year.
  • The QB change from Philip Rivers to Carson Wentz might mean fewer targets to Colts RBs. Rivers’ last 3 teams have targeted RBs at rates of 27.0%, 29.6% and 24.3%. Wentz’s last 3 teams: 17.0%, 18.6% and 16.1%.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

On the strength of a 64-482-4 receiving line, Hines finished 18th among RBs in PPR points and 26th in non-PPR last year.

But we’re projecting a decline in 2021. Hines lost more receiving work to RB Jonathan Taylor late last season, a trend which figures to continue. The return of RB Marlon Mack could cost Hines a bit more work. And the QB change from Philip Rivers to Carson Wentz might mean fewer targets to the RBs.

Hines should still bring RB3 or flex value in PPR leagues. We wouldn’t bother with him in non-PPR.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

The Colts have had “multiple conversations of late” with reps for RB Nyheim Hines, per The Athletic. The 24-year-old is entering a contract season. He’s yet to miss a game as a pro, and it sounds like he wants to continue that trend as a Colt. “I hope to be the Darren Sproles of Indy,” Hines said via The Athletic. “The Nyheim Hines of Indy. I’m really driven to leave a legacy. That’s something I think about every day.” Our current projections have Hines for only 73 carries, but his reception upside puts him in the PPR flex conversation.

View all Nyheim Hines Shark Bites »

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport says "don't be surprised" if RB Nyheim Hines gets the "bulk" of the Colts' carries against the Packers today. Hines is coming off a breakout game last week -- and it sounds like the Colts want to ride the hot hand. This still figures to be a fluid situation with RBs Jonathan Taylor and Jordan Wilkins in the mix, but Hines looks like the best fantasy play among the 3.

View all Nyheim Hines Shark Bites »

Colts RB Nyheim Hines "has been everywhere" in camp, The Athletic's Zak Keefer writes. "I’ve never seen Hines this active in the offense," Keefer continues. "It’s probably not a stretch to say the third-year running back has caught more passes from [QB Philip] Rivers than anyone else. They’ve been mostly screen passes and dump-offs, but it’s likely a snippet into some of what we’ll see this season. Instead of throwing the ball away, Rivers will look for Hines. And Hines will look for space." Hines has very little rushing upside and was inefficient in the passing game last year. But volume trumps all. And if Hines is going to see a bunch of targets, he'll be useful in PPR leagues.

View all Nyheim Hines Shark Bites »

The Colts selected North Carolina State RB Nyheim Hines in the 4th round of the 2018 NFL Draft. Hines blazed a 4.38-second 40 time at the Combine and plays just as fast. He averaged 5.4 yards per carry and 10.5 yards per catch over his 3-year college career, while also scoring 3 times in the return game. Hines goes just 5’8, 198 pounds and never reached 200 carries in a season at N.C. State. But he caught 20+ balls in all 3 campaigns, including 43 in 2016. He has the look of at least a pass-catching, change-of-pace asset as a pro, with the potential to emerge as a committee back on the Gio Bernard-Duke Johnson spectrum. He joins Marlon Mack in a relatively wide-open Colts backfield. Mack looks like the early favorite to lead the team in carries, but there’s plenty of room for Hines to carve out a significant role.

View all Nyheim Hines Shark Bites »

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