Bottom Line

Perine’s 2023 fantasy value ultimately hinges on Javonte Williams’ recovery from last October’s multi-ligament knee injury. There’s a chance that Williams isn’t ready for the start of the season – and his effectiveness when he does return is in question.

That makes Perine worth considering in RB3-4 territory. Just be careful not to overrate a player who’s been no better than average through six NFL seasons.

What We Learned Last Year

• Perine set career highs last year with:
  • 51 targets
  • 38 catches
  • 287 receiving yards
  • 4 receiving TDs
• All four of those marks ranked top-21 among RBs.
• Perine added 394 yards and two TDs on 95 carries (4.1 YPC).
• He finished 36th among RBs in PPR points and 38th in non-PPR – the best finishes of his career.
• Perine started two games last year with RB Joe Mixon out.
  • In Week 12, Perine carries 17 times for 58 yards and a score and caught four of seven targets for 35 yards. He finished the week RB10 in PPR points and RB11 in non-PPR.
  • In Week 13, Perine tallied 106 yards on 21 carries and 49 more yards on six catches. He ranked fourth among RBs in PPR points and seventh in non-PPR.
• Among 48 RBs with 90+ carries last season, Perine ranked:
  • 35th in Pro Football Focus rushing grade
  • 22nd in PFF’s Elusive Rating
  • 38th in NFL Next Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt
• He was more a bit more effective as a pass catcher, ranking 24th in PFF receiving grade and 20th in yards per route run among 43 qualifying RBs.
• Perine was basically a non-factor in fantasy football over his first five NFL seasons. He finished RB43 in PPR points and RB41 in non-PPR as a rookie in 2017 but didn’t crack the top 60 in any of the next four years.

What to Expect in 2023

• The Bengals let Perine hit free agency this offseason. He wound up joining the Broncos on a two-year, $7.5 million deal with $3 million guaranteed.
  • That lands Perine 20th among RBs in average annual salary.
• Perine joins a Denver backfield alongside Javonte Williams, who’s rehabbing a torn ACL, torn LCL, and torn posterolateral corner suffered Oct. 2. Williams’ availability for the start of the season and his effectiveness when he does return are uncertain.
• New Broncos HC Sean Payton has a long history of deploying split backfields. He had at least 2 RBs average 9+ touches per game in 14 of his 15 seasons as Saints HC.
• Payton on Perine in May: “When we signed Samaje, this is a guy that gave us flexibility. We signed him because we knew he was durable and reliable. We felt like we got another solid runner who’s built in a strong way. There are a lot of things he does well. When we signed him, there was still uncertainty (with Williams). I was taught a long time ago to stack them up at that position. It’s a tough position in our league.”
• Denver’s offensive line ranked 15th in Pro Football Focus’ run-blocking grades and 20th in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards last year.
• The unit projects to be better in 2023 after the Broncos spent big money to add RT Mike McGlinchey and LG Ben Powers in free agency. LT Garrett Bolles will also be back after missing the final 12 games of last season with a broken leg.