Chase Brown Fantasy Overview

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Brown ran for 1,019 yards and 6 TDs and added another 437 yards and 5 scores on 69 catches across 17 games last year. He finished outside the top 15 RBs in rushing yards and TDs but ranked:

• fifth in catches
• sixth in receiving yards
• third in receiving TDs

Brown ranked eighth among RBs in PPR points per game, 10th in half-PPR, and 13th in non-PPR.

Brown was more productive in the three games that included a limited or absent Samaje Perine (Weeks 9, 11, and 12), averaging 17.6 PPR points per game. That pace would have made him RB7 on the season.

Brown still averaged 16.3 points across 14 games with Perine, which would have made him RB9.

Most importantly, Brown averaged a massive 21.0 PPR points per game in QB Joe Burrow’s seven full outings. Only four RBs beat that mark last year.

Usage & Role

Brown operated as Cincinnati’s lead back all season, though he ceded some passing-down and goal-line work to Perine. Even so, his 66.1% snap rate ranked 10th among RBs, and his 54.2% route rate ranked fifth.

Brown’s 232 carries ranked just 17th at the position, but his 60.9% carry share ranked seventh. His 87 targets and 13.6% target share both ranked top-6 among RBs.

Brown tied for just 21st with 18 carries inside the 10-yard line, ceding 8 carries to Perine. Brown out-carried Perine 12-4 inside the 5. Those 12 carries tied for 16th among RBs.

He also tied for second at the position with six targets inside the 10.

Brown finished fifth among RBs in expected PPR and half-PPR points per game. If we look at just the 14 games with Perine, he drops to RB6 in PPR and RB10 in half. But Brown’s expected points per game in Burrow’s seven full outings would have made him RB4 in both PPR and half-PPR.

Efficiency & Regression

Brown turned in middling efficiency metrics last year. Among 51 RBs with 90+ carries, he ranked:

• 24th in yards per carry
• 27th in rush yards over expected per attempt
• 23rd in yards after contact per attempt
• 19th in missed tackles forced per attempt
• 23rd in Pro Football Focus rush grade

It was a similar story in the passing game, where Brown finished 21st in yards per route and 13th in PFF receiving grade among 40 qualifying RBs.

It’s worth noting, though, that Brown’s rushing metrics improved significantly after a slow start.

Defensive attention played a big part in the efficiency jump. Brown saw stacked boxes on 45.0% of his runs in Weeks 1-6 vs. 36.1% in Weeks 7-18, according to Fantasy Points Data. That dropped even further to 31.0% with Burrow back under center for Weeks 13-18.

Brown’s yards before contact per attempt jumped from 0.69 in Weeks 1-6 to 2.57 in Weeks 7-18.

A healthy Burrow is clearly a big factor in Brown’s efficiency.

Offensive Context

The Bengals offense remained pass-heavy last year, despite missing Burrow for nine games and most of a 10th. Cincinnati ranked:

• second in pass rate
• first in neutral pass rate
• sixth in pass rate over expected

The Bengals finished 16th in total offensive plays, second in pass attempts, and 29th in rush attempts.

Brown ran behind an offensive line that produced mixed metrics. The 2025 Bengals ranked 26th in PFF run-blocking grades but 10th in both ESPN run-block win rate and adjusted line yards.

Brown’s 1.97 yards before contact per attempt (largely an offensive-line stat) ranked 31st among 51 RBs with 90+ carries.

Historical Production & Trends

After playing sparingly as a 2023 rookie behind Joe Mixon, Brown finished 14th among RBs in PPR points per game in 2024.

He opened that season splitting work with Zack Moss but pulled ahead as the clear backfield leader by midseason. With Moss out for the final eight games, Brown ranked fourth among RBs in PPR points per game.

He’s now averaged 17.9 PPR points over his last 25 games, dating back to midway through 2024. Only six RBs averaged more than that last year.

Injury History & Durability

Brown played all 17 games last year and only missed the season finale in 2024 with a high-ankle sprain. A hamstring injury cost him four games as a rookie.

Brown did not suffer any significant injuries in college.

Projected Role & Competition

The Bengals somewhat surprisingly did not make any moves in the backfield this offseason, leaving only Samaje Perine and Tahj Brooks behind Brown.

That makes Brown a safe bet to, at minimum, play the same role he did last year. And we could even see his role expand. Brown was a much more effective runner than Perine over the final two-thirds of last season. And he easily beat Perine in yards per route (1.09 to 0.48) and PFF receiving grade (71.9 to 60.3).

Brown might need to improve in pass protection to see more passing-down work, though. His 27.7 PFF pass-blocking grade ranked 31st among 40 qualifying RBs. (Perine earned a 39.1 grade, which is also weak.)

Brooks carried just 16 times for 45 yards as a sixth-round rookie last year. He’s a much bigger threat to Perine’s No. 2 job than to Brown.

Supporting Cast

A healthy Joe Burrow is key to Brown’s 2026 outlook. The Bengals averaged 26.1 points in Burrow’s seven full games last year vs. 23.1 in the other 10. And, as mentioned earlier, Brown scored as the PPR RB5 in Burrow’s seven full games.

The pass-catching corps around Brown looks much the same. Cincinnati lost TE Noah Fant in free agency and added Day 3 rookies WR Colbie Young and TE Jack Endries, but none of those moves should alter Brown’s outlook.

WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins return as the top two targets. But Brown looks like the favorite to finish third after doing so last year.

The Bengals also return all five offensive line starters from last year in OTs Orlando Brown and Amarius Mims, Gs Dalton Risner and Dylan Fairchild, and C Ted Karras.

Risner was the only one of those five to finish in the top half of his position in PFF run-blocking grades last year.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

Zac Taylor is back for his seventh season as Bengals HC and offensive play caller.

Taylor’s offense going pass-heavy is one of the most bankable things in all of fantasy football. Here’s where Cincinnati has ranked in pass rate and neutral pass rate since Burrow arrived:

None of Taylor’s offenses have ranked in the top half of the league in rush attempts, with five of seven finishing 24th or lower.

The offense has been about league average in terms of RB fantasy production with Burrow, though. Here’s where Cincinnati has ranked in total RB PPR points over the last six seasons:

• 2020: 20th
• 2021: 14th
• 2022: sixth
• 2023: 22nd
• 2024: 16th
• 2025: 18th

Prior to Brown’s run as lead back the past two seasons, Joe Mixon finished as a top-12 PPR RB in each of the previous four years. So the Bengals have produced a top-14 RB in all six of Burrow’s seasons.

Paths to Ceiling

Brown is the favorite to lead Bengals RBs in carries, goal-line carries, and targets this season. If Burrow stays healthy and the offense bounces back, Brown’s fantasy ceiling will climb into the top-6 at his position.

Risk Factors

Burrow’s durability problems (major injuries in three of six seasons) and Cincinnati’s subpar offensive line are the biggest risks to Brown’s fantasy value. Both could torpedo his efficiency, which is important for Brown considering he doesn’t project for huge rushing volume.