Travis Kelce Fantasy Overview

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Kelce caught 76 of 108 targets for 851 yards and 5 TDs in 2025.

Kelce finished TE3 in total PPR points, but his 11.4 points per game ranked just ninth and displayed a continued decline.

Although Kelce has yet to fall out of the position’s top 9, three straight years of shedding points per game can’t be ignored.

Usage & Role

The drop-off began with his target share:

His 1.47 yards per route run marked a career low, ranking 22nd among 49 tight ends with 30+ targets:

Offensive Context

The one encouraging piece of his 2025 profile is what happened when WR Rashee Rice was in the lineup. With Rice healthy over eight games, Kelce averaged 13.1 PPR points on 7.0 targets per game. Over nine games without Rice, those numbers dropped to 9.6 PPR points and 5.9 targets.

Kelce becomes easier for the defense to stifle when he’s the only regular short-range receiving option. And the Chiefs passed a bit more in Mahomes’ eight games after Rice returned from suspension (36.1 attempts per game vs. 35.5 in the six games Rice missed).

That might not have been intentional, however. Kansas City actually led the league at 66.3% in neutral pass rate through Week 6 last season. That declined to 57.5% (fourth) from Rice’s Week 7 return through the Week 15 contest in which Mahomes went down.

Projected Role & Competition

The receiving competition around Kelce in 2026 looks similar to 2025.

Rice returns as the clear No. 1 coming off a 26.5% target share in eight full games last season. Worthy managed just a 16.1% target share. If he repeats the 12.8-yard aDOT of last year, then Worthy will present even less direct competition to Kelce than he did as a 2024 rookie (9.4-yard aDOT).

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

The Chiefs as a team have shown a sharp decline in scoring since 2022, with three seasons rankings near the middle of the league (after sitting near the top for Mahomes first five seasons):

Kelce still delivered TE1 production through the decline, but his TD output followed the team’s scoring closely. He never topped five receiving TDs in either of the last three seasons, while he had 9+ in all but one season from 2018-2022.

Kelce’s end zone targets dropped as well, following a similar trend to the overall scoring of the offense:

Paths To Ceiling

Age is the variable that no stat can fully account for. Kelce turns 37 on Oct. 5. According to our aging curve data, age 37 TEs historically produce 50% of their peak production. That would put him at 10.5 PPR points per game, which would have ranked as TE13 last year.

Kelce failed to meet the 60% of peak production on the curve in 2025, only hitting 54.5% with his 11.4 PPR points per game.

Kelce, of course, already showed decline in target share and efficiency, as you’d expect with an aging player.

Risk Factors

The ceiling is returning to his production as a top-five PPR TE. The team targeting Kelce more, improving on his career low in yards per route run, would be the first step. An increase in catches likely won’t hit the ceiling alone. The Chiefs offense having a scoring rebound should target Kelce more in the end zone to help with TD production. Kelce will need to overcome turning 37 this year, but he still is only two years removed from a TE1 overall season.