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Travis Kelce - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsTravis Kelce's Basic Stats

Travis Kelce
ADP: 2.8
Bye: 6
Experience: 11
Age: 34.6
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 250
40 Time: 4.66
Speed Score: 111.10
Burst Score (Rank): 123.30 (79%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.51 (60%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.14 (78%)

Travis Kelce's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
5.8 63.2 0.47 9.3
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
6 70.8 0.6 10.8

Travis Kelce's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#1 Tight End

141.6 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
2.8 90 981.8 7.24 0 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsTravis Kelce's Preseason Player Analysis

View TE Fantasy Rankings »

Bottom Line

Turning 35 in October, Kelce is clearly on the decline. But even a declining Kelce led all TEs in PPR points per game last season – and then went on a dominant four-game playoff run.

He’ll face stiffer target competition this year than last after Kansas City added WRs Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy.

But it’s all baked into Kelce’s depressed ADP. He’s an awesome value in Round 4 of fantasy drafts and is still worth considering if he climbs into Round 3.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Kelce’s 14.8 PPR points per game last year were his fewest since 2016.
  • He still led all TEs in PPR points per game – 0.1 ahead of T.J. Hockenson and 1.0 ahead of any other TE.
  • Kelce missed Week 1 after suffering a hyperextended knee and bone bruise two days before the game. He also sat out a meaningless regular-season finale.
  • Kelce still ranked top four among TEs in targets (121), catches (93), and yards (984).
  • He underachieved in the TD department, scoring just five times – tied for his fewest since 2016.
    • Kelce’s 5.4% TD rate lagged well behind his career 8.5% rate heading into the season.
    • Kelce ranked second among TEs with 25 red-zone targets and fifth with seven end-zone targets.
    • His 7.0 expected receiving TDs tied Jake Ferguson for most among TEs.
  • Kelce tied Hockenson for most expected PPR points per game among TEs (14.6).
  • Kelce drew 21.4% of Chiefs targets in his 15 games – fourth among TEs.
  • His target shares in the previous four seasons:
    • 2022 - 23.3%
    • 2021 - 20.8%
    • 2020 - 24.2%
    • 2019 - 23.6%
  • Kelce’s 10.6 yards per catch last year was easily a career low. His previous low was 12.2.
  • His 6.9-yard average target depth tied for his lowest since 2015.
  • Kelce’s 1.92 yards per route run last year was the third-lowest mark of his career but still ranked fourth among 45 qualifying TEs.
  • His 83.6 Pro Football Focus receiving grade was the second worst of his career but ranked second among those 45 qualifying TEs.
  • Kelce was dominant in Kansas City’s four playoff games, posting the following receiving lines:
    • 7-71-0
    • 5-75-2
    • 11-116-1
    • 9-93-0
  • He totaled 37 targets on a 24.8% target share across those four playoff games.

What to Expect in 2024

  • The Chiefs and Kelce agreed to a two-year, $34.25 million contract extension in April. It made Kelce the league's highest-paid TE and keeps him with Kansas City through the 2027 season.
  • Kelce turns 35 in October.
    • Our aging-curve research shows that elite TEs produce 73% of their career peak at age-35.
    • 73% of Kelce’s peak would be 15.2 PPR points per game, which would have led all TEs last year.
  • Kelce returns to the same Andy Reid- and Patrick Mahomes-led offense.
  • The Chiefs upgraded the WR corps this offseason with the additions of free-agent Marquise Brown and first-round rookie Xavier Worthy.
  • WR Rashee Rice is coming off a strong rookie season but is likely facing a multi-game suspension to open the season following a street-racing crash in Dallas in late March.
  • Kelce will face stiffer target competiton this season than last, but we don’t expect his target share to take a significant hit. He’s a trusted target for Mahomes, especially in the short passing game. Brown and Worthy are more downfield receivers.

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Travis Kelce, TE KC

3:32pm EDT 4/29/24

Travis Kelce gets two-year extension

The Chiefs and TE Travis Kelce agreed to a two-year, $34.25 million contract extension, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. It makes Kelce the league's highest-paid TE and keeps him with Kansas City through the 2027 season. He'll be 38 by that point. We'll see whether Kelce plays through the life of this contract, but it looks like he'll retire as a Chief. His 14.8 PPR points per game last year were his fewest since 2016 -- but were still enough to lead all TEs. Kelce sits atop our 2024 fantasy football TE rankings.

View all Travis Kelce Shark Bites »

Chiefs TE Travis Kelce said after Sunday's Super Bowl win that he'll be back for the 2024 season. There had been some whispers that he'd retire, especially if the Chiefs won another title. But Kelce will help Kansas City gun for a three-peat. The 34-year-old averaged 14.8 PPR points per game this past year -- his fewest since 2016 but still enough to lead all TEs. Kelce then racked up 32 catches, 355 yards, and three TDs across four playoff games. He sits atop our 2024 fantasy football TE rankings.

View all Travis Kelce Shark Bites »

The Chiefs downgraded TE Travis Kelce to out for today's game vs. the Chargers. ESPN's Adam Schefter reported this morning that Kelce would play long enough to get the 16 yards he needs for 1,000, but HC Andy Reid evidently wised up since then and will hold Kelce out of this meaningless game. Noah Gray figures to operate as Kansas City's lead TE and is in play as a cheap DFS option.

View all Travis Kelce Shark Bites »

The Chiefs are expected to play TE Travis Kelce long enough vs. the Chargers today to get him the 16 yards he needs for 1,000 total, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. It'd be Kelce's eighth straight 1,000-yard season. Expect Kelce to be pulled as soon as he gets those 16 yards, with the Chiefs having nothing to play for today. Kelce still isn't a recommended Week 18 fantasy play, although this news is a knock against TE Noah Gray's viability.

View all Travis Kelce Shark Bites »

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes won't play vs. the Chargers this weekend, HC Andy Reid said Wednesday. QB Blaine Gabbert will start in a meaningless game for the Chiefs, who are locked in as the AFC's No. 3 seed. Reid also said that "some" other starters will not play on Sunday. We imagine that'll include TE Travis Kelce, RB Isiah Pacheco, and potentially WR Rashee Rice. This is an offense to avoid in Week 18 fantasy lineups.

View all Patrick Mahomes Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View TE Dynasty Rankings »

Travis Kelce, TE KC
Dynasty MVP 45.2
Position Rank #33 TE
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
183
225
296
Dynasty Write-up
Across 15 games, Kelce tallied a disappointing 93-984-5 line in 2023. Kelce fell shy of 1,000 yards for the first time since 2015, while his TD total was his lowest since 2016. The future Hall of Famer also saw dips in yards per catch and yards per route run. He's under contract through 2027 after signing an extension in May.
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