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2014 Reliability Rankings

By Jared Smola 9:52am EST 2/10/15

We’ve been doing Reliability Rankings for a few years now. But we’re changing the methodology for 2014 to (hopefully) yield more accurate results.

As a refresher, Reliability Rankings judge how reliable a player was on a week-to-week basis. Most fantasy football analysis looks at raw fantasy points. But that only tells part of the story. A WR with 1 huge 30-point game and a bunch of duds could finish with the same total fantasy points as a WR who consistently churns out 10-12 points a week.

Since fantasy football is a week-to-week game, it’s important to look at performance on a week-to-week basis. That’s why Reliability Rankings are part of our after-season debriefing.

To create Reliability Rankings, we want to find the percentage of weeks a player provided “starter-level production.” In the past, we’ve defined the cutoff for “starter-level production” as the fantasy-points-per-game average of the worst starter at each positon (i.e. the 12th-ranked QB, 24th-ranked RB, 36th-ranked WR, 12th-ranked TE, 12th-ranked K and 12th-ranked DEF).

The problem with that method was that it uses a static, end-of-season number of fantasy points. In reality, the production needed to qualify as a fantasy starter is a moving target each week.

For example, it took 13 PPR points to finish as a top-24 RB in Week 1 of 2014. But in Week 10, the threshold was just 10.1 PPR points. I cherry-picked weeks at both extremes, but you get the point: using a fixed number to determine “starter-level production” across 16 different weeks is flawed.

So for the 2014 Reliability Rankings, we’re quite literally looking at the number of weeks each player finished as a starter at his respective position. The top 12 QBs in Week 1 were each awarded 1 “starter week.” Same goes for the top 24 RBs, 36 WRs, 12 TEs, 12 Ks and 12 DEFs. We did this for each of the first 16 weeks. (Week 17 was omitted because starters are rested, and most fantasy leagues are no longer playing.)

To calculate the Reliability Rankings, we simply divide the number of “starter weeks” by the number of games played. The result is the percentage of weeks played each player produced “starter-level production.”

Of course, the rankings would change if we used different starting baselines (i.e. top 10 QBs or top 24 WRs) and/or different scoring systems. But the rankings below give a good general idea of how reliable each player was on a weekly basis.

If you have any questions on this -- or ideas about how to make this project even better in 2015 -- feel free to post in the comments below or shoot me an email at smola@draftsharks.com.

Below are the Reliability Rankings of the top 25 QBs, 40 RBs, 60 WRs, 25 TEs, 32 Ks and 32 DEFs in total fantasy points. I also included some notable players who didn’t finish inside those thresholds.


QBs

Fantasy Points Rank Player Starter Weeks Games Started Reliability Rating
1 Andrew Luck 14 15 93.3%
4 Peyton Manning 11 15 73.3%
2 Aaron Rodgers 10 15 66.7%
3 Drew Brees 10 15 66.7%
5 Ben Roethlisberger 8 15 53.3%
6 Russell Wilson 8 15 53.3%
7 Matt Ryan 8 15 53.3%
11 Philip Rivers 8 15 53.3%
12 Tony Romo 7 14 50.0%
9 Eli Manning 7 15 46.7%
10 Tom Brady 7 15 46.7%
17 Cam Newton 6 13 46.2%
13 Jay Cutler 6 14 42.9%
8 Ryan Tannehill 6 15 40.0%
14 Joe Flacco 6 15 40.0%
15 Matthew Stafford 6 15 40.0%
21 Kyle Orton 4 11 36.4%
22 Teddy Bridgewater 4 11 36.4%
23 Ryan Fitzpatrick 4 12 33.3%
18 Andy Dalton 4 15 26.7%
19 Alex Smith 4 15 26.7%
16 Colin Kaepernick 3 15 20.0%
20 Derek Carr 3 15 20.0%
25 Brian Hoyer 2 13 15.4%
24 Blake Bortles 1 12 8.3%
Other Notables
32 Kirk Cousins 3 5 60.0%
27 Mark Sanchez 4 7 57.1%
31 Carson Palmer 3 6 50.0%
29 Nick Foles 4 8 50.0%
28 Josh McCown 4 10 40.0%
38 Zach Mettenberger 2 6 33.3%
36 Mike Glennon 1 5 20.0%
39 Jake Locker 1 5 20.0%
33 Robert Griffin III 1 6 16.7%
26 Geno Smith 1 12 8.3%
41 E.J. Manuel 0 4 0.0%


RBs

Fantasy Points Rank Player Starter Weeks Games Reliability Rating
1 Le'Veon Bell 15 15 100.0%
22 Ahmad Bradshaw 9 9 100.0%
2 DeMarco Murray 14 15 93.3%
3 Matt Forte 14 15 93.3%
6 Arian Foster 11 12 91.7%
19 Andre Ellington 9 11 81.8%
14 Mark Ingram 9 12 75.0%
4 Marshawn Lynch 11 15 73.3%
5 Eddie Lacy 11 15 73.3%
9 Lamar Miller 11 15 73.3%
18 Fred Jackson 9 13 69.2%
12 LeSean McCoy 10 15 66.7%
7 Jamaal Charles 9 14 64.3%
13 Joique Bell 9 14 64.3%
8 Justin Forsett 9 15 60.0%
29 Rashad Jennings 6 10 60.0%
16 Giovani Bernard 7 12 58.3%
11 C.J. Anderson 7 14 50.0%
24 Jonathan Stewart 6 12 50.0%
10 Jeremy Hill 7 15 46.7%
17 Alfred Morris 7 15 46.7%
33 Isaiah Crowell 7 15 46.7%
30 Tre Mason 5 11 45.5%
34 Pierre Thomas 5 11 45.5%
20 Shane Vereen 6 15 40.0%
21 Frank Gore 6 15 40.0%
27 Andre Williams 6 15 40.0%
28 Steven Jackson 6 15 40.0%
26 Branden Oliver 5 13 38.5%
15 Matt Asiata 5 14 35.7%
40 Bobby Rainey 5 14 35.7%
32 Benny Cunningham 5 15 33.3%
35 Darren McFadden 5 15 33.3%
31 Roy Helu 4 13 30.8%
38 Denard Robinson 4 13 30.8%
23 Chris Ivory 4 15 26.7%
37 Knile Davis 4 15 26.7%
39 Chris Johnson 4 15 26.7%
25 Darren Sproles 3 14 21.4%
36 Trent Richardson 3 14 21.4%
Other Notables
43 Ronnie Hillman 4 7 57.1%
54 Antone Smith 4 10 40.0%
89 Montee Ball 2 5 40.0%
70 Ryan Mathews 3 8 37.5%
48 Jerick McKinnon 4 11 36.4%
79 Stevan Ridley 2 6 33.3%
41 Terrance West 4 13 30.8%
52 Doug Martin 3 10 30.0%
42 Reggie Bush 2 8 25.0%
66 Khiry Robinson 2 9 22.2%
50 Latavius Murray 3 14 21.4%
44 Bishop Sankey 3 15 20.0%
45 LeGarrette Blount 3 15 20.0%
55 Dan Herron 3 15 20.0%
49 Devonta Freeman 2 15 13.3%
69 C.J. Spiller 1 9 11.1%
51 Toby Gerhart 0 13 0.0%
92 DeAngelo Williams 0 6 0.0%


WRs

Fantasy Points Rank Player Starter Weeks Games Reliability Rating
1 Antonio Brown 15 15 100.0%
7 Odell Beckham Jr. 10 11 90.9%
2 Demaryius Thomas 12 15 80.0%
3 Jordy Nelson 12 15 80.0%
4 Dez Bryant 12 15 80.0%
5 Emmanuel Sanders 12 15 80.0%
8 Randall Cobb 12 15 80.0%
6 Julio Jones 11 14 78.6%
11 T.Y. Hilton 11 14 78.6%
10 Alshon Jeffery 11 15 73.3%
14 DeAndre Hopkins 11 15 73.3%
20 Mike Wallace 11 15 73.3%
28 Andre Johnson 10 14 71.4%
12 Golden Tate 10 15 66.7%
24 A.J. Green 8 12 66.7%
17 Julian Edelman 9 14 64.3%
21 Roddy White 8 13 61.5%
9 Jeremy Maclin 9 15 60.0%
15 Kelvin Benjamin 9 15 60.0%
42 Greg Jennings 9 15 60.0%
16 Calvin Johnson 7 12 58.3%
19 Anquan Boldin 8 15 53.3%
22 Brandon LaFell 8 15 53.3%
29 Torrey Smith 8 15 53.3%
30 Jarvis Landry 8 15 53.3%
39 Malcom Floyd 8 15 53.3%
13 Mike Evans 7 14 50.0%
23 DeSean Jackson 7 14 50.0%
35 Keenan Allen 7 14 50.0%
38 Kenny Stills 7 14 50.0%
48 Andrew Hawkins 7 14 50.0%
56 Brandin Cooks 5 10 50.0%
18 Steve Smith 7 15 46.7%
27 Sammy Watkins 7 15 46.7%
37 James Jones 7 15 46.7%
41 Kendall Wright 6 13 46.2%
26 Eric Decker 6 14 42.9%
25 Jordan Matthews 6 15 40.0%
32 Rueben Randle 6 15 40.0%
33 Vincent Jackson 6 15 40.0%
36 Marques Colston 6 15 40.0%
40 Mohamed Sanu 6 15 40.0%
44 Michael Floyd 6 15 40.0%
54 Kenny Britt 6 15 40.0%
34 Brandon Marshall 5 13 38.5%
51 Larry Fitzgerald 5 13 38.5%
50 Reggie Wayne 5 14 35.7%
57 Dwayne Bowe 5 14 35.7%
31 Eddie Royal 5 15 33.3%
43 Doug Baldwin 5 15 33.3%
45 Robert Woods 5 15 33.3%
46 Michael Crabtree 5 15 33.3%
47 Pierre Garcon 5 15 33.3%
49 Allen Hurns 5 15 33.3%
53 Terrance Williams 5 15 33.3%
59 Markus Wheaton 5 15 33.3%
58 Percy Harvin 4 13 30.8%
52 John Brown 4 15 26.7%
55 Andre Holmes 4 15 26.7%
60 Riley Cooper 3 15 20.0%
Other Notables
66 Allen Robinson 6 10 60.0%
90 Brian Quick 4 7 57.1%
61 Martavis Bryant 5 9 55.6%
98 Victor Cruz 3 6 50.0%
103 Josh Gordon 2 5 40.0%
86 Charles Johnson 4 11 36.4%
65 Miles Austin 4 12 33.3%
67 Cecil Shorts 4 12 33.3%
80 Justin Hunter 3 12 25.0%
71 Wes Welker 3 13 23.1%
89 Stedman Bailey 3 14 21.4%
74 Hakeem Nicks 3 15 20.0%
75 Davante Adams 3 15 20.0%
63 Harry Douglas 2 11 18.2%
79 Donte Moncrief 2 15 13.3%
82 Cordarrelle Patterson 2 15 13.3%


TEs

Fantasy Points Rank Player Starter Weeks Games Reliability Rating
1 Rob Gronkowski 14 15 93.3%
4 Greg Olsen 11 15 73.3%
2 Jimmy Graham 9 15 60.0%
3 Antonio Gates 9 15 60.0%
5 Martellus Bennett 8 15 53.3%
6 Travis Kelce 8 15 53.3%
9 Jason Witten 8 15 53.3%
8 Delanie Walker 7 14 50.0%
11 Larry Donnell 7 15 46.7%
15 Charles Clay 6 13 46.2%
19 Dwayne Allen 6 13 46.2%
10 Julius Thomas 5 12 41.7%
13 Zach Ertz 6 15 40.0%
14 Jermaine Gresham 5 14 35.7%
18 Owen Daniels 5 14 35.7%
7 Coby Fleener 5 15 33.3%
12 Heath Miller 5 15 33.3%
16 Mychal Rivera 5 15 33.3%
20 Scott Chandler 5 15 33.3%
21 Jordan Reed 3 10 30.0%
17 Jared Cook 4 15 26.7%
24 Jace Amaro 3 13 23.1%
23 Tim Wright 3 15 20.0%
22 Niles Paul 2 15 13.3%
25 Lance Kendricks 1 15 6.7%
Other Notables
27 Jordan Cameron 2 9 22.2%
41 Austin Seferian-Jenkins 2 9 22.2%
38 Kyle Rudolph 1 8 12.5%
40 Eric Ebron 1 12 8.3%
35 Vernon Davis 1 13 7.7%


Ks

Fantasy Points Rank Player Starter Weeks Games Reliability Rating
2 Cody Parkey 11 15 73.3%
1 Stephen Gostkowski 10 15 66.7%
4 Mason Crosby 10 15 66.7%
6 Dan Carpenter 9 15 60.0%
28 Matt Prater 6 10 60.0%
15 Mike Nugent 8 14 57.1%
5 Steve Hauschka 8 15 53.3%
8 Dan Bailey 8 15 53.3%
10 Justin Tucker 8 15 53.3%
32 Connor Barth 2 4 50.0%
3 Adam Vinatieri 7 15 46.7%
7 Shaun Suisham 7 15 46.7%
9 Randy Bullock 7 15 46.7%
11 Caleb Sturgis 7 15 46.7%
12 Matt Bryant 7 15 46.7%
16 Josh Brown 6 14 42.9%
23 Kai Forbath 6 14 42.9%
17 Chandler Catanzaro 6 15 40.0%
18 Cairo Santos 6 15 40.0%
25 Billy Cundiff 5 13 38.5%
14 Nick Folk 5 14 35.7%
21 Nick Novak 5 14 35.7%
13 Graham Gano 5 15 33.3%
19 Phil Dawson 5 15 33.3%
22 Greg Zuerlein 5 15 33.3%
24 Shayne Graham 5 15 33.3%
20 Blair Walsh 4 15 26.7%
27 Sebastian Janikowski 3 14 21.4%
29 Ryan Succop 3 15 20.0%
31 Brandon McManus 2 11 18.2%
26 Patrick Murray 2 15 13.3%
30 Josh Scobee 2 15 13.3%


DEFs

Fantasy Points Rank Team Starter Weeks Games Reliability Rating
4 Houston Texans 12 15 80.0%
3 Buffalo Bills 11 15 73.3%
9 Baltimore Ravens 9 15 60.0%
1 Philadelphia Eagles 8 15 53.3%
13 San Francisco 49ers 8 15 53.3%
14 Minnesota Vikings 8 15 53.3%
24 Chicago Bears 8 15 53.3%
25 Tennessee Titans 8 15 53.3%
5 St. Louis Rams 7 15 46.7%
6 Pittsburgh Steelers 7 15 46.7%
7 Arizona Cardinals 7 15 46.7%
16 Miami Dolphins 7 15 46.7%
22 Cleveland Browns 7 15 46.7%
8 Jacksonville Jaguars 6 15 40.0%
10 Carolina Panthers 6 15 40.0%
11 Denver Broncos 6 15 40.0%
12 Detroit Lions 6 15 40.0%
15 New England Patriots 6 15 40.0%
20 Indianapolis Colts 6 15 40.0%
2 Green Bay Packers 5 15 33.3%
19 Dallas Cowboys 5 15 33.3%
23 Seattle Seahawks 5 15 33.3%
26 Atlanta Falcons 5 15 33.3%
31 New Orleans Saints 5 15 33.3%
17 Kansas City Chiefs 4 15 26.7%
18 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4 15 26.7%
21 New York Giants 4 15 26.7%
27 San Diego Chargers 4 15 26.7%
30 Cincinnati Bengals 3 15 20.0%
28 New York Jets 2 15 13.3%
29 Washington Redskins 2 15 13.3%
32 Oakland Raiders 1 15 6.7%

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