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Bo Nix Dynasty Value

By Shane Hallam | Updated on Mon, 13 May 2024 . 9:30 AM EDT

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Bo Nix’s 6.8-yard average target depth is the lowest of any QB in the 2024 class, and the third lowest in all of college football. He threw 329 of his 470 passes (70%) in 2023 to wide-open or open targets, per Pro Football Focus. On those throws, 74.4% of his yards came from YAC.

A master of screens and short passes made Nix’s profile concerning. Then, he was a surprise selection by the Denver Broncos at 12th overall.

Nix did come into the draft as the most experienced QB in NCAA history, starting 61 games in his career. Playing in two different systems over his 5 years as a starter, Nix has seen almost everything.

He rebounded from a rough start at Auburn to become a star at Oregon. Despite his accolades, most film experts graded him as a Day 2 pick and a reach at 12.

Being labeled a first-round reach at QB has had mixed results in terms of fantasy success.

Plenty have been busts: Zach Wilson, Daniel Jones, and E.J. Manuel.

But some have turned into NFL success stories, such as Josh Allen and Ryan Tannehill.

Let’s dig into Nix’s profile and see how his career will play out.

Bo Nix Dynasty Values

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Bo Nix Draft Profile

Player Combine Results

Percentiles vs Combine QBs since 1999, per MockDraftable

Bo Nix College Stats

High School Superstar

Bo Nix’s father, Patrick, was a QB for Auburn from 1992-1995. He would later go on to coach at the collegiate level, including stops at Georgia Tech and Miami.

Later in his career, he coached at the high school level at Pinson Valley High School in Alabama, where he coached his son. 

Bo Nix was in a pass-friendly offense in high school and accumulated over 12,000 total yards and 161 TDs in his four years. He garnered a five-star prospect rating as a recruit.

Nix was known for being extremely accurate with the football in the short passing game and letting his playmakers create yards after the catch.

His cerebral approach pre-snap allowed him to carve up defenses at the high school level. These same traits would define his college career.

Nix held over 18 offers, including Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, and Georgia. Ultimately, he chose to follow in his father’s footsteps and go to Auburn.

Disaster at Auburn

Nix immediately entered a competition with Joey Gatewood for the starting job. Gatewood was the favorite over the true freshman, but Nix’s strong fall camp pushed him into the starting role.

The season started strong with a 27-21 win over Nix’s future team, the Oregon Ducks. He would manage games early in the season, but when he was given a longer leash, it all went downhill.

Nix threw 3 INTs against Florida and struggled to move the ball against Georgia, despite throwing 50 passes. He would help lead an upset of Alabama, but 173 yards and a TD were far from spectacular.

Expectations were high for Nix’s second season, but he was often inaccurate throwing downfield. He cost the team the game against South Carolina with 3 INTs. This time around, he was dominated by Alabama, throwing two INTs and numerous near picks.

In Year 3, Nix struggled even more, dropping games to Penn State, Texas A&M, and Mississippi State among others. In key moments when the team needed a play, Nix usually made a bad decision or threw an uncatchable ball.

Nix was eventually benched for T.J. Finley during the season and entered the transfer portal. 

Nix Gets a Fresh Start at Oregon

New Oregon coach Dan Lanning pursued Nix in the portal and convinced him to join the Ducks. There was skepticism around Nix, but he fit Lanning’s short passing system much better than Gus Malzahn’s deep system at Auburn.

The skepticism grew as Georgia obliterated Nix in his first game, picking him off twice on the way to a 49-3 victory. 

But Nix went on to win 10 of the next 11 games, including an upset over No. 10 Utah. Though he still made mistakes, the system fit was apparent. 

The season was capped off with Nix leading a late drive against North Carolina in the Holiday Bowl, throwing the game-winning TD with 19 seconds left.

Entering his final season, expectations were high for Nix and the Oregon offense.

Nix Keeps Improving

2023 was nearly flawless for Nix.

With the screen and short passing game utilized again, there were more opportunities for one-on-one coverage over the top.

Nix’s game continued to be in the short area, but the occasional deep pass to Troy Franklin or Tez Johnson helped Oregon dominate opponents.

Though Oregon would lose twice to Michael Penix Jr.’s Washington Huskies, Nix battled in those games, throwing for a combined 576 yards with 5 TDs and 1 INT. 

Nix had better command of the offense and had more freedom to make pre-snap adjustments. All of this paid off. He would earn the second-highest Pro Football Focus passing grade in the country, behind only Jayden Daniels.

The great season pushed Nix to go 12th overall in the NFL Draft, despite not working out during the pre draft process.

Bo Nix Highlights

Games watched: Georgia (2022), North Carolina (2022), Stanford (2023), Washington (2023), Utah (2023), Cal (2023), USC (2023), Oregon State (2023), Pac-12 Championship (2023), Liberty (2023)

Bo Nix’s traits shine in his highlight reel. Watching his best plays of 2023 shows the upside he brings for fantasy football as a runner and passer.

But, even in the highlights, it's rare to see Nix throw through a tight window or place the ball perfectly during a contested catch.

Let’s watch the film and see if these traits will translate at the next level. 

Athleticism

Nix’s rushing ability gives him an edge against defenses. He has the speed and agility to zoom past defenders when the play breaks down.

He processes the defense well in real time on scripted and unscripted runs. Finding a crease and using it to gain chunks of yards was common.

In the clip above, Nix keeps the ball on a read option and outruns an athletic Oregon State defense. He takes an optimal angle toward the boundary and then turns upfield once he hits the sideline.

Expect his legs to be utilized in the NFL.

Throwing on the Move

Many of Nix's best passes came on the move when pressure flushed him from the pocket.

He's able to navigate the pocket away from pressure and make throws to open receivers while on the run.

Buying time for his receivers to get open was key against good defenses this past season.

In the play above, Nix immediately feels pressure from third-round pick Bralen Trice. 

With his WRs covered, Nix moves to his right and allows his TE time to work open. This creates clean separation and Nix throws for a wide-open TD.

Reading Defenses Pre-Snap

When Nix can identify a defense before the snap, he usually has success.

Nix was given full control at the line of scrimmage in 2023, allowing him to change plays and adjust routes if he recognized what the defense was doing.

Throwing the ball to a first read regularly may seem like Nix doesn’t read the defense, but his pre-snap reads allow Nix to predetermine who will be open. 

In the clip above, Nix recognizes third-round S Calen Bullock retreating backwards as the deep man. As the ball is being snapped, Nix changes his first read to Troy Franklin in one-on-one soft coverage.

Nix immediately slings the ball to the open slant, which Franklin takes 84 yards for a TD.

Criticism of Nix’s wide open passing rate makes sense on paper, but Nix’s defensive recognition often allowed these passes to occur.  

Nix Struggles Against Tight Coverage

Though Nix does well at processing the defense before the snap, he struggles when there is tight coverage.

If a WR isn’t wide open, Nix is hesitant to try and fit the ball tightly to them. When pressure is added, bad decisions can creep in for Nix throwing into those windows. 

Nix attempts to step up in the pocket, but his receivers are all covered. To buy more time, he escapes to the right side, but still can’t find anyone open.

Instead of throwing the ball away or placing the ball in an ideal spot, Nix tosses it into the clutches of the Huskies defense for an INT.

He will not be able to survive long in the NFL with these types of decisions and a lack of tight-window passing.

Poor Analytics

The advanced analytics on Nix paint a pretty easy road to his big numbers at Oregon.

Nix’s 6.8 aDOT is a major concern, ranking fifth percentile among QB prospects since 2017, per PFF.

But Nix’s aDOT throwing to wide open or open WRs was even worse at a measly 3.9 yards, the worst of the first-round QBs (Caleb Williams was next at 6.1).

With a Big Time Throw Rate of only 4.3% (13th percentile) and only 45% of Nix’s passing yards coming from Air Yards (7th percentile), throwing in the NFL will require a major adjustment.

Bo Nix Team Fit: Denver Broncos

Landing with the Broncos and Sean Payton is ideal from a scheme perspective. Similar to Oregon, Payton uses motion nearly every play to allow the QB to read the defense and make decisions pre-snap.

Nix’s ability to read the defense before snapping the football should be a major asset. 

The West Coast style of the Payton offense also values lower aDOT passes. Drew Brees consistently was under a 10-yard aDOT in first-read passes with Payton’s Saints. 

If Nix can develop his football IQ, especially when coverages are tight, there is some hope with Payton at the helm calling plays.

Unfortunately, the offense around Nix still needs to improve for him to have a chance. Courtland Sutton has not proven to be a true stud X WR. Lesser options like Marvin Mims and Josh Reynolds don’t strike fear into defenses, either. The Broncos did draft Nix’s top weapon from Oregon in Troy Franklin, so the chemistry could allow for a connection between the two.

The one positive for the Broncos is that their offensive line was top five in PFF pass-blocking grade last year.

The fit is a good one for Nix, but with him likely to start as a rookie, the learning curve could be difficult early in his career.  

Dynasty Value Conclusion

Nix’s dynasty value is a conundrum with a wide range of outcomes. On one hand, he is a rushing QB who is likely to open his rookie season as the starter (unlike Michael Penix Jr.). He is on an offense that fits his skillset and produced big numbers with a Hall-of-Fame QB at the helm.

On the other hand, Nix was severely overdrafted in the NFL Draft. The advanced metrics, as well as film study, tell a disturbing tale of Nix’s NFL potential. There may be too much to overcome for Nix to become a top tier fantasy QB.

In 1-QB dynasty leagues, Nix is an afterthought. He is a low end back-up who could fill in for a bye week if everything goes well.

In Superflex, Nix has some intriguing potential as a QB2, even if there is a decent chance he turns into a bust. His rushing and the Broncos offense could provide enough opportunities for short-term fantasy success, even if he struggles in real life.

Our Dynasty Rankings have Nix just outside the first round of Superflex rookie drafts, ahead of Penix.    

It may be a longshot, but if Nix can develop into an every-week Superflex starter, he's worth the selection at that price.

See where Nix is going in current startup dynasty ADP -- and best ball ADP.

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