2021's Best and Worst Offenses, According to Vegas
You have an idea of which offenses will be strongest and weakest in 2021, right?
I have an idea.
So does Vegas. And we should always weigh what Vegas thinks considering they spend a boatload of money and man hours to make accurate predictions.
No, the sportsbooks don’t come out and rank all the offenses from 1 to 32. But they do give us point spreads and over/unders for all 544 games this coming season. From there, we can deduce how many points Vegas implies each team to score each week.
That’s exactly what we did. The table below shows the average implied points per game for every team this season, ranked from most to least. Keep on scrolling for some thoughts on the numbers and what it means for your fantasy drafts.
No surprises at the very top or very bottom. Vegas expects the Chiefs, Buccaneers and Bills to be the 3 highest-scoring teams this season. All 3 teams finished top 6 in points scored last year and return their core players. At the other end, Vegas projects the Texans and Lions to be the lowest-scoring squads.
There are surprises just beyond those teams, though.
Let’s start with the Bengals, who check in with the 5th fewest implied points per game. Fantasy owners are much more optimistic about this offense. There are currently 5 Bengals sitting inside the first 8 rounds of FFPC best-ball ADP (
Vegas is clearly more concerned than fantasy owners about
Based on our rankings ,
The Colts are the biggest surprise at the top end, checking in with the 4th highest implied-point average. Perhaps it shouldn’t be a major surprise considering Indy ranked 9th in points scored last year. But Vegas is clearly expecting them to take a step forward in 2021.
If the implied average is right, there’s big value to be had on this offense.
Vegas is also optimistic about the Browns, who finished 14th in points scored last year but rank 7th in implied 2021 points.
Before we get out of here, let’s look at each team’s 2021 implied point total vs. their 2020 points per game to see which teams Vegas expects to improve and regress the most this year:
The Packers stick out here. Vegas is likely baking in some natural regression after
Vegas seems to be lukewarm on the Saints sans
Most of the teams projected for the biggest point increases were last year’s worst offenses. Two exceptions: the Rams and 49ers. The Rams finished 22nd in points under