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2021's Best and Worst Offenses, According to Vegas

By Jared Smola and Anthony Pappano 8:07am EDT 7/1/21


You have an idea of which offenses will be strongest and weakest in 2021, right?

I have an idea.

So does Vegas. And we should always weigh what Vegas thinks considering they spend a boatload of money and man hours to make accurate predictions.

No, the sportsbooks don’t come out and rank all the offenses from 1 to 32. But they do give us point spreads and over/unders for all 544 games this coming season. From there, we can deduce how many points Vegas implies each team to score each week.

That’s exactly what we did. The table below shows the average implied points per game for every team this season, ranked from most to least. Keep on scrolling for some thoughts on the numbers and what it means for your fantasy drafts.


No surprises at the very top or very bottom. Vegas expects the Chiefs, Buccaneers and Bills to be the 3 highest-scoring teams this season. All 3 teams finished top 6 in points scored last year and return their core players. At the other end, Vegas projects the Texans and Lions to be the lowest-scoring squads.

There are surprises just beyond those teams, though.

Bengals

Let’s start with the Bengals, who check in with the 5th fewest implied points per game. Fantasy owners are much more optimistic about this offense. There are currently 5 Bengals sitting inside the first 8 rounds of FFPC best-ball ADP (

Mixon
,
Chase
,
Higgins
,
Burrow
and
Boyd
). The only other teams with 5 guys going inside the first 8 rounds are the Rams and 49ers, who both rank top 10 in implied-point average.

Vegas is clearly more concerned than fantasy owners about

Joe Burrow
’s return from last year’s multi-ligament knee injury, a still-questionable offensive line, or both.

Based on our rankings ,

Burrow
and Ja’Marr
Chase
look like overvalued Bengals.

Colts

The Colts are the biggest surprise at the top end, checking in with the 4th highest implied-point average. Perhaps it shouldn’t be a major surprise considering Indy ranked 9th in points scored last year. But Vegas is clearly expecting them to take a step forward in 2021.

If the implied average is right, there’s big value to be had on this offense.

Jonathan Taylor
is currently the only Colt going inside the first 9 rounds of FFPC best balls. The uncertainty in the pass-catching corps is likely driving drafters away. But WRs
Michael Pittman
(10.12 ADP),
T.Y. Hilton
(14.02) and
Parris Campbell
(15.12) all have a shot to return big profits. Ditto for
Carson Wentz
, who’s QB18 in ADP right now.

Browns

Vegas is also optimistic about the Browns, who finished 14th in points scored last year but rank 7th in implied 2021 points.

Cleveland
closed last season with a flurry, averaging 29.7 points over the final 7 games (including playoffs). The Browns return all of last year’s key pieces -- and get WR
Odell Beckham
back.

Cleveland
figures to remain a run-leaning offense this year -- but the passing game is undervalued in fantasy drafts if the offense is as good as Vegas thinks.
Baker Mayfield
is QB19 in ADP;
Beckham
WR28;
Jarvis Landry
WR47 and
Austin Hooper
TE23.



Before we get out of here, let’s look at each team’s 2021 implied point total vs. their 2020 points per game to see which teams Vegas expects to improve and regress the most this year:


The Packers stick out here. Vegas is likely baking in some natural regression after

Green
Bay led the league in scoring last year. But it’s also a clear hedge against
Aaron Rodgers
being out of the picture. (Many sportsbooks aren’t offering an over/under win total for the Packers right now.)

Vegas seems to be lukewarm on the Saints sans

Drew Brees
. They’re implied for about 4 fewer points per game this season than last -- but still rank 9th in 2021 implied points.

Most of the teams projected for the biggest point increases were last year’s worst offenses. Two exceptions: the Rams and 49ers. The Rams finished 22nd in points under

Jared Goff
last season but are projected to spike to 8th with Matt
Stafford
this year. The ‘Niners are projected to vault to 10th in scoring after finishing 21st last year.


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