Show Navigation
Show Menu

FFPC Playoff Challenge Strategy

By Jared Smola 11:01am EST 1/6/21


If you’re looking for the answers to the FFPC Playoff Challenge test, you’ve come to the wrong place. I don’t have the answers. And if I did, I’d just use them to win the $500,000 grand prize for myself.

This isn’t a picks article. It’s a strategy guide and data dump. It’s basically everything I’ll be using to put together my rosters.


Understand the Rules

You don’t need me to tell you that understanding the rules of the fantasy contest you’re entering is important. So I won’t. I’ll just leave the FFPC Playoff Challenge rules here.

I do think there are 2 crucial points to keep in mind when building your roster:

  1. FFPC scoring rules apply. That means 1 PPR for RBs and WR; but 1.5 PPR for TEs.
  2. Points double in the Super Bowl. So you want the 2 highest raw scorers on your team playing in that final game.


General Strategy Thoughts

This is a 6,250-entry contest with about 46% of the entire prize pool going to 1st place. The winner gets $500,000; 2nd place $50,000.

So, like in a DFS tournament, every move we make should be aimed at taking down that 1st-place prize. That might seem obvious, but lots of folks will build lineups that are far too chalky to have a realistic chance at winning.

Like in DFS tournaments, we should be prioritizing upside, taking some risks and getting contrarian with at least 1 or 2 picks.


Figuring Out Who Will Advance

Since we can only pick 1 player per NFL team in this contest, figuring out which teams will play the most games isn’t as important as it is in other playoff fantasy leagues. But we do need to nail the 2 Super Bowl teams. And we also need to predict which 6 teams — or more if a 1-seed loses its 1st game — will play only 1 game. (More on how that should impact player selection later.)

To help with that, here are the 12 teams playing on Wild Card Weekend, ordered from biggest favorite to biggest underdog.


Here are the chances that each team advances to each round of the playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight.com's model:


Note that, according to this model, the Saints (63%) and Bills (55%) have the best chances of playing 3 games. They’re followed by the Chiefs (45%) and Packers (42%) — then it’s a big drop down to the Bucs (25%), Ravens (24%), Seahawks (23%) and Steelers (19%).

The Chiefs (23%) and Packers (21%) have the best chances to get to the double-points Super Bowl. But the Saints (19%) and Bills (16%) aren’t far behind.


Fading Teams

We have 12 roster spots to fill. There are 14 playoff teams. So we’re chucking out 2 teams altogether. Those should be the teams you believe have the best chance to go one-and-done AND not have high fantasy scorers in that 1 game.

We’ll also need to pick players, Ks and/or DSTs from 4 teams that will go one-and-done. Two of them should be your K and DST since those are the lowest-scoring positions (and also most difficult to predict on a game-to-game basis).

Picking your 2 players from one-and-done teams is a bit tricky. You might want to hedge a bit and choose guys from the teams you think are most likely to spring upsets. For example, maybe you choose a Brown rather than a Bear because you believe Cleveland has a better chance to win this weekend than Chicago.

But you should also take Wild Card projections into account. In the Browns vs. Bears example, we have Allen Robinson projected for the most points among all skill-position players on those 2 teams. So maybe you go “all-in” on the Browns and Bears losing and go with Robinson instead of a Brown.

One final note: The goal is to have 8 position players still alive in the Divisional Round. That means you shouldn’t, for example, pick the Seahawks defense and no one from the Rams. That’d give you no shot at having 8 players remaining.


Matchups

We’re looking to maximize the amount of fantasy points we get from every team, so matchups still matter. The tables below show the rankings in adjusted fantasy points allowed vs. every position for every playoff team. (Higher numbers mean a worse defense against that position.)

AFC


NFC


FFPC Points by Team

For your reference, here are the FFPC points per game scored by every player I believe is viable for this contest, sorted from highest to lowest by team. These, of course, don’t take into account current injuries or recent role changes.

Chiefs


Bills


Steelers

  • Pittsburgh’s K spot is uncertain with Chris Boswell dealing with a groin injury.


Titans

  • Tennessee’s K spot is uncertain with Stephen Gostkowski on the COVID list.


Ravens


Browns


Colts


Packers


Saints


Seahawks


Washington


Buccaneers


Rams


Bears


Related Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football Sleepers 2024

Fantasy Football Sleepers 2024

3:26pm EST 2/23/24

Want to catapult your fantasy team? You need later-round picks with big upside. These six fantasy football sleepers could make your season.

Read More »
Fantasy Football Draft Guide: 12-Team PPR Draft Strategy

Fantasy Football Draft Guide: 12-Team PPR Draft Strategy

8:26am EST 2/21/24

This comprehensive fantasy football draft guide takes you pick-by-pick through 12-team PPR draft strategy. We'll help you crush your draft from any spot.

Read More »
Fantasy Football Team Names

Fantasy Football Team Names

12:23pm EST 2/20/24

Sometimes having fun is just as important as winning. Here are some tips for creating excellent fantasy football team names to make your league mates laugh.

Read More »
132 Things I Learned Doing 2024 Fantasy Football Projections

132 Things I Learned Doing 2024 Fantasy Football Projections

1:18pm EST 2/13/24

From Lamar Jackson's dwindling rushing volume to Rashee Rice's elite second half, here are 132 things I learned doing 2024 fantasy football projections.

Read More »
Early Fantasy Football Rankings

Way Too Early Fantasy Football Rankings 2024

3:35pm EST 2/12/24

Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes? Bijan Robinson or Breece Hall? Let's answer those questions (and more) with a look at way too early 2024 fantasy football rankings.

Read More »
NFL Playoff Fantasy Rankings

NFL Playoff Fantasy Rankings

12:48pm EST 1/13/24

Hop inside to see NFL playoff fantasy rankings -- both by position and an overall top 50 -- for all of your postseason contests.

Read More »
FFPC Playoff Challenge Strategy (Updated 1/11)

FFPC Playoff Challenge Strategy (Updated 1/11)

4:02pm EST 1/11/24

Travis Kelce has been an essential building block in this contest -- a chase for the $500K top prize. How should you build for the 2024 chase, though?

Read More »
Other rankings are stale  before the 2nd round.

Draft using the best dynamic tool in the industry. Our fantasy player valuations (DMVP) change during your draft in response to...

  1. Exact league settings - direct sync
  2. Opponent and Team Needs
  3. Positional scarcity & available players
  4. Ceiling, injury risk, ADP, and more!

You need a dynamic cheat sheet that easily live-syncs with your draft board and adapts throughout your draft using 17 crucial indicators.

Get your Draft War Room Today
Winning Your League Starts Here Trophy
Why Wouldn’t You Invest
$36 to Win Your League?
Check out thisleague-winning info
2023 Draft Package Now - Sept 15

$39

Get Instant Access
2023 In-Season Package Sept 5 - Mar 7

$39

Get Access Sept. 5
2023 DFS Package Sept 5 - Mar 7

$49

Get Access Sept. 5
Best Value – All Access Pass
DS Insider Membership All 3 Packages

$127 $36

Semi-annual
Get Instant Access
Draft War Room Included Draft War Room Draft War Room Draft War Room Included Draft War Room
Unlimited Live-Draft Sync Included Unlimited Live-Draft Sync Unlimited Live-Draft Sync Unlimited Live-Draft Sync Included Unlimited Live-Draft Sync
Award-Winning Player Rankings Included Award-Winning Player Rankings Award-Winning Player Rankings Award-Winning Player Rankings Included Award-Winning Player Rankings
3D Projections Included 3D Projections 3D Projections 3D Projections Included 3D Projections
In-Depth Player Profiles Included In-Depth Player Profiles In-Depth Player Profiles In-Depth Player Profiles Included In-Depth Player Profiles
Mock Draft Trainer Included Mock Draft Trainer Mock Draft Trainer Mock Draft Trainer Included Mock Draft Trainer
DMVP Trade Values Included DMVP Trade Values DMVP Trade Values DMVP Trade Values Included DMVP Trade Values
The Perfect Draft Included The Perfect Draft The Perfect Draft The Perfect Draft Included The Perfect Draft
Breakout & Comeback Player Included Breakout & Comeback Player Breakout & Comeback Player Breakout & Comeback Player Included Breakout & Comeback Player
Average Draft Position by Scoring Included Average Draft Position by Scoring Average Draft Position by Scoring Average Draft Position by Scoring Included Average Draft Position by Scoring
Scientific Injury Predictor Included Scientific Injury Predictor Scientific Injury Predictor Scientific Injury Predictor Included Scientific Injury Predictor
Insider Sleepers & Busts Included Insider Sleepers & Busts Insider Sleepers & Busts Insider Sleepers & Busts Included Insider Sleepers & Busts
In-Season Weekly Rankings In-Season Weekly Rankings Included In-Season Weekly Rankings In-Season Weekly Rankings Included In-Season Weekly Rankings
“Who Should I Start?” Tool “Who Should I Start?” Tool Included “Who Should I Start?” Tool “Who Should I Start?” Tool Included “Who Should I Start?” Tool
“Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications Included “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications Included “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications
Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Included Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Included Live-Sync Free Agent Finder
Trade Navigator Trade Navigator Included Trade Navigator Trade Navigator Included Trade Navigator
Player Shares Player Shares Included Player Shares Player Shares Included Player Shares
In-Depth Free Agent Gems In-Depth Free Agent Gems Included In-Depth Free Agent Gems In-Depth Free Agent Gems Included In-Depth Free Agent Gems
Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Included Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Included Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice
Strength-of-Schedule Data Strength-of-Schedule Data Included Strength-of-Schedule Data Strength-of-Schedule Data Included Strength-of-Schedule Data
DFS Lineup Builder DFS Lineup Builder DFS Lineup Builder Included DFS Lineup Builder Included DFS Lineup Builder
DFS Ownership Projections DFS Ownership Projections DFS Ownership Projections Included DFS Ownership Projections Included DFS Ownership Projections
Weekly Top Stacks Weekly Top Stacks Weekly Top Stacks Included Weekly Top Stacks Included Weekly Top Stacks
High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews Included High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews Included High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews
DFS Independent DFS Independent DFS Independent Included DFS Independent Included DFS Independent
Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles
Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates
Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates
To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives
All-Access Draft Sharks App All–Access Draft Sharks App Included All-Access Draft Sharks App Included All-Access Draft Sharks App Included All-Access Draft Sharks App Included All-Access Draft Sharks App
Get Instant Access Get Access Sept 5 Get Access Sept 5 Get Instant Access

Turn your phone into a draft weapon with our FREE APP

Download on the App Store Get It on Google Play