Risers & Fallers

Mid-August ADP Risers and Fallers

By Jared Smola 1:13pm EDT 8/18/15

    

A 1-round move was a big deal back in June and July. But ADP is a different beast now. As the tidal wave of NFL news washes over us, players’ prices are making big swings.

The Mid-August ADP Report features 8 guys that have moved 20+ spots over the past couple of weeks. Keeping up with these changes is a key part of dominating your draft.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at 17 of the biggest ADP movers in the 1 st half of August.


Risers

Sam Bradford, QB, Eagles

Early-August ADP: 142

Mid-August ADP: 130

Drafters are finally starting to catch on to the fact that Bradford is a good bet for QB1 production in HC Chip Kelly’s fast-paced offense. There’s still plenty of value at his current 11 th-round ADP. Bradford is the 15 th QB off the board in average drafts.


Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Jets

Early-August ADP: 240

Mid-August ADP: 227

Fitzpatrick was picked in just 4 of 106 MFL10 drafts over the first 3 days of August. Since the Geno Smith news broke on August 11 th, Fitzpatrick has been selected in 93 of 222 drafts. A sneaky-good athlete with a promising history in OC Chan Gailey’s offense, Fitz makes sense as a 3 rd QB in best-ball leagues.


Ameer Abdullah, RB, Lions

Early-August ADP: 51

Mid-August ADP: 39

Abdullah shot up a full round over the first 2 weeks of August. He might appear on our late-August ADP Report, too. The rookie has been buzzing throughout training camp and ripped off a 45-yarder in the preseason opener. He still makes sense at this early-4 th-round price tag, but another big jump could make Abdullah overpriced.


Doug Martin, RB, Bucs

Early-August ADP: 71

Mid-August ADP: 60

Martin also appeared as a Riser in the July ADP Report. He climbed a half-round last month and almost a full round in the first 2 weeks of August. He might price himself off our radar if he climbs safely into the 5 th round. Martin has reportedly had an excellent offseason, but concerns remain about the offensive line in front of him.


Alfred Blue, RB, Texans

Early-August ADP: 201

Mid-August ADP: 103

Blue is the current favorite to serve as Houston’s lead back while Arian Foster is sidelined. He had a strong preseason opener, carrying 9 times for 59 yards. Blue isn’t a bad pick in the 9 th round, but we don’t see a ton of upside – and it’s still unclear exactly how long Foster will be out.


Eddie Royal, WR, Bears

Early-August ADP: 164

Mid-August ADP: 124

Royal was climbing draft boards even before we learned that Kevin White needed shin surgery. Since that news, Royal’s ADP has actually been at 120. That’s a fair price tag for a guy who could catch 60+ balls as Chicago’s #2 WR.


Michael Crabtree, WR, Raiders

Early-August ADP: 165

Mid-August ADP: 144

Crabtree has had a strong training camp and hauled in 2 of 3 targets in limited action in the preseason opener. We’re still not banking on a big bounce-back season, but Crabtree is a fine shot to take in the 12 th or 13th round.


Allen Hurns, WR, Jaguars

Early-August ADP: 222

Mid-August ADP: 196

Marqise Lee’s continued durability problems and Hurns’ impressive offseason have him looking like Jacksonville’s #2 WR. As a rookie last year, Hurns averaged 13.3 yards per catch and led the team with 6 receiving TDs. He’s a nice late-rounder, especially in best-ball drafts.


Tyler Eifert, TE, Bengals

Early-August ADP: 122

Mid-August ADP: 111

A healthy Eifert has dominated in camp and hauled in both of his targets for 30 yards in the preseason opener. There’s breakout potential here – and still value at his current 10 th-round price tag.


Fallers

Arian Foster, RB, Texans

Early-August ADP: 12

Mid-August ADP: 72

Foster figures to be 1 of the most volatile players in drafts over the next few weeks. Since we learned of his groin injury, he’s gone as early as the 5 th round and as late as the 11 th. His RB1 potential when he returns makes him worth a shot at some point. How early you’re willing to draft him depends on the makeup of your roster and your risk tolerance.


Todd Gurley, RB, Rams

Early-August ADP: 38

Mid-August ADP: 48

Drafters have reacted to the negative news on Gurley over the past couple of weeks. It doesn’t look like the rookie will be a fantasy asset early on, but he could still emerge as a must-start later on. He’s more fairly priced now than he was at the beginning of August.


Tevin Coleman, RB, Falcons

Early-August ADP: 63

Mid-August ADP: 71

Coleman missed about a week-and-a-half with a hamstring injury. He returned to practice on Monday, August 17 th and still has 3 preseason games to make a run at the starting job. Coleman’s price drop into the late 6 th round makes him a much more intriguing pick.


Duke Johnson, RB, Browns

Early-August ADP: 85

Mid-August ADP: 92

After buzzing all spring, Johnson has missed most of training camp with a hamstring injury. That’s lowered his price in drafts. Neither Isaiah Crowell nor Terrance West has impressed in Johnson’s absence, though, so the rookie still has a chance to claim a significant role.


Jay Ajayi, RB, Dolphins

Early-August ADP: 111

Mid-August ADP: 170

Ajayi struggled with pass protection and ball security early in camp and then missed the preseason opener with a bum hamstring. He’s still 4 th on the depth chart and isn’t worth rostering in standard-sized fantasy leagues right now. We’ll see if the rookie can make up ground over the next few weeks.


Michael Floyd, WR, Cardinals

Early-August ADP: 88

Mid-August ADP: 115

Since dislocating his fingers on August 5th, Floyd’s ADP has settled in the late 9th/early 10 th round. That’s a 2-round discount from where he went in July drafts. Floyd still has plenty of upside as a 25-year-old, 6’2, 220-pounder with 4.4 speed.


Marqise Lee, WR, Jaguars

Early-August ADP: 213

Mid-August ADP: 237

Lee has missed the past 2 weeks with a hamstring injury, and there’s no timetable for his return. Meanwhile, Allen Hurns has taken hold of the #2 WR spot. Lee isn’t even getting picked in some 20-round MFL10s.


Zach Ertz, TE, Eagles

Early-August ADP: 91

Mid-August ADP: 108

Ertz’s ADP dropped from the late 7 th round to the mid-8 th in July. It’s dropped by another round-and-a-half through the first 2 weeks of August. Ertz has quickly gone from overvalued to undervalued – even with his recent groin surgery.


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