Fantasy Football Redraft

Pass Rate Over Expected Data - Week 4

By Jared Smola 21 hours ago

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Pass Rate Over Expected: Revealing an offense's TRUE intentions

Pass and run rates are a huge part of accurately projecting player performance and fantasy value.

Raw pass and run rates are a good starting point.

But they can sometimes lead us astray because they're heavily influenced by game script. If a team is playing from behind, it's more likely to call passes; playing with the lead, more likely to run the ball.

Pass Rate Over Expected aims to eliminate the influence of game script to give us a better idea of an offense's true intentions.

The metric compares each team's actual pass and run rates with their expected pass and run rates based on a variety of factors, including score differential, down-and-distance, and time remaining. (You can read more about the expected pass and run rate model here.)

Below you'll find Week 4 and season-long Pass Rate Over Expected For Every NFL Offense and Pass Rate Over Expected For Every NFL Defense. The latter illuminates whether teams are opting to go pass- or run-heavier than usual against each defense.

We'll be using this data to fuel our weekly projections and rankings.

Questions? Hit us in the comments section below.

Pass Rate Over Expected - Offense

Pass Rate Over Expected - Defense