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Pass Rate Over Expected Data - Week 17

By Jared Smola | Updated on Thu, 04 Jan 2024 . 10:34 PM EST

Pass Rate Over Expected: Revealing an offense's TRUE intentions

Pass and run rates are a huge part of accurately projecting player performance and fantasy value.

Raw pass and run rates are a good starting point.

But they can sometimes lead us astray because they're heavily influenced by game script. If a team is playing from behind, it's more likely to call passes; playing with the lead, more likely to run the ball.

Pass Rate Over Expected aims to eliminate the influence of game script to give us a better idea of an offense's true intentions.

The metric compares each team's actual pass and run rates with their expected pass and run rates based on a variety of factors, including score differential, down-and-distance, and time remaining. (You can read more about the expected pass and run rate model here.)

Below you'll find Pass Rate Over Expected For Every NFL Offense and Pass Rate Over Expected For Every NFL Defense for Week 17, the last four weeks, and for the entire season.

(Pass Rate Over Expected For Every NFL Defense illuminates whether teams are opting to go pass- or run-heavier than usual against each defense.)

We'll be using this data to fuel our weekly projections and rankings.

Questions? Hit us in the comments section below.


Pass Rate Over Expected - Offense


Pass Rate Over Expected - Defense


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Jared Smola, Lead Analyst
Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and My Team tools. He currently ranks 1st among 133 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.
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