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Top Plays for Week 9 Underdog Pick Ems
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I hope you’re ready, because this week’s picks contain the largest gap that we’ve seen on any player to date. And it comes with a guy who has proved he’s worth betting on since arriving in the NFL.
On top of that, we have more options this week (21) than we did last time around (16).
More, of course, will continue to pop up as Underdog adds player prop lines throughout the week. So make sure you keep our Week 9 fantasy football rankings handy.
Last week’s picks – though less plentiful – still found us in the black. We hit on 3 of 4 QB passing lines and 4 of 6 total QB options. That helped us to 9-7 overall. Here’s the season tally …
Week 1: 16-8
Week 2: 16-8
Week 3: 11-5
Week 4: 8-9
Week 5: 10-8
Week 6: 13-12
Week 7: 18-6
Week 8: 9-7
Overall: 101-63
The Week 9 numbers present 10 QB options, including 8 in the passing category – which has been friendly to us on the year (62% win rate; 69.6% outside of Week 6).
Passing
Geno Smith, Seahawks
Draft Sharks projection: 260.8 yards
Underdog: 229.5
Difference: 31.3
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
DS: 260.1
Underdog: 233.5
Difference: 26.6
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
DS: 312.9
Underdog: 288.5
Difference: 24.4
Mac Jones, Patriots
DS: 218
Underdog: 194.5
Difference: 23.5
Kirk Cousins, Vikings
DS: 273.6
Underdog: 261.5
Difference: 12.1
Davis Mills, Texans
DS: 204.1
Underdog: 220.5
Difference: -16.4
Jared Goff, Lions
DS: 229.7
Underdog: 258.5
Difference: -28.8
Derek Carr, Raiders
DS: 221.4
Underdog: 252.5
Difference: -31.1
QB Total Yards
Justin Herbert, Chargers
Draft Sharks projection: 325.1
Underdog: 279.5
Difference: 45.6
Marcus Mariota, Falcons
DS: 204.2
Underdog: 216.5
Difference: -12.3
If you’ve been reading this every week and feel like you’ve seen Lawrence’s name a lot … well, you’re right. This is the 6th time he has popped up in 9 editions, each time as an over. So far we’re just 2-3 on him.
My concern for him this week would not be the opponent but rather the chance of a run-heavy approach limiting his opportunities. He has gone over that 233.5 mark in 5 of 8 games so far, though, and comes in averaging 230 yards per game.
Herbert’s gap is the biggest of the year. His total yards prop sits 36.4 short of our passing projection alone. And he’s averaging 293.9 total yards per game. I know Mike Williams is missing … but it’s the Falcons. Our opponent-adjusted fantasy points allowed say they're 3rd most friendly to QB scoring -- and generous to all positions.
Receiving
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Chiefs
Draft Sharks projection: 62.3 yards
Underdog: 49.5
Difference: 12.8
Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings
DS: 104.3
Underdog: 92.5
Difference: 11.8
Curtis Samuel, WR, Commanders
DS: 39.5
Underdog: 47.5
Difference: -8
D.K. Metcalf, WR, Seahawks
DS: 62
Underdog: 71.5
Difference: -9.5
Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams
DS: 80.1
Underdog: 94.5
Difference: -14.4
Davante Adams, WR, Raiders
DS: 69.1
Underdog: 87.5
Difference: -18.4
Nice to find a WR and his QB listed in this article. Kadarius Toney’s arrival might seem to complicate the outlook for Smith-Schuster, but I’ll need to actually see something from him before I’m adjusting the incumbent down. And Tennessee’s run-strong, pass-weak defense sets the table for K.C. to lean pass the way it did in San Francisco before the bye. Mahomes has delivered 294+ yards and 3 TD passes in 2 of 3 career meetings with the Titans.
Adams and Carr can work together in the other direction, with unders listed for both. I’d probably lean away from combining them with Lawrence’s over in a single Pick Em. The worse Vegas’ pass offense performs, the less Jacksonville will need to throw.
You will also find Metcalf and his QB both in this article. It’s certainly possible for the WR to go under while his QB goes over, but that’s another combo I wouldn’t build.
Rushing
Dameon Pierce, Texans
Draft Sharks projection: 76.8 yards
Underdog: 61.5
Difference: 15.3
Sparse, but the rushing lines usually take some time to start arriving. Jonathan Taylor qualified for inclusion here, with our initial rushing-yardage projection 8.9 over his Underdog line. But I wouldn't lock that one in right now. HC Frank Reich said Tuesday the team is still evaluating the latest tweak to Taylor's bothersome ankle. Frankly, he looks like a risky "over" bet right now even if he hits the weekend with no game designation.
RB Total Yards
Aaron Jones, Packers
Draft Sharks projection: 107.2 yards
Underdog: 92.5
Difference: 14.7
Dameon Pierce, Texans
DS: 99.1
Underdog: 84.5
Difference: 14.6
Josh Jacobs, Raiders
DS: 115
Underdog: 101.5
Difference: 13.5
Devin Singletary, Bills
DS: 67.4
Underdog: 81.5
Difference: -14.1
Pierce is another player who has popped up as a frequent “over,” and he’s hit 3 of the 4 times I’ve included him. The only time he didn’t was Week 1, a game after which Lovie Smith lamented not giving him the ball enough (and then fixed it). Having him in both he rushing and total-yards lists offers some Pick Em flexibility.
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