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Week 10 DraftKings Cash-Game Picks

By Jared Smola | Updated on Sat, 13 Apr 2024 . 10:58 PM EDT

Quarterback

Geno Smith, Seahawks ($5,800)

It’s been a disappointing season from Smith so far. He’s thrown too many INTs (7) and not enough TDs (9).

But Smith is playing well enough otherwise. He’s completing 65% of his passes and averaging 7.1 yards per attempt. Smith ranks 13th among 33 qualifying QBs in Pro Football Focus’ passing grades and has Seattle sitting ninth in pass offense DVOA.

It hasn’t been as bad as the fantasy production suggests.

Sunday presents a get-right spot for Smith and this passing game. The Seahawks are home for a Commanders team that ranks 29th in both pass defense DVOA and adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs.

Seattle’s 25.25-point implied total is fourth highest on the main slate.

Also consider:

  • Joe Burrow, Bengals ($6,800)
  • Sam Howell, Commanders ($5,900)

 

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey, 49ers ($9,200)

In a week with very little to pay up for, McCaffrey is our safest bet for a big chunk of points. His 26.4 DraftKings points per game are 4.1 more than any other non-QB playing on this main slate.

McCaffrey should be fresh coming off the bye week for a potential high-scoring game against the Jaguars.

Jacksonville’s defense is underrated, ranking third in defensive DVOA and fourth in run defense DVOA.

But the Jaguars rank just 12th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs – in part because they’ve allowed the most catches and fourth most receiving yards to the position.

McCaffrey can obviously take advantage of that weakness.

Travis Etienne, Jaguars ($7,100)

Etienne continues to be underpriced on DraftKings.

He’s averaged 18.9 carries and 4.4 targets per game for the season – and spiked to 20.5 carries and 4.8 targets over his last four games.

Etienne gets a 49ers run defense on Sunday that’s overrated by the public.

San Francisco ranks 25th in run defense DVOA and 16th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

The ‘Niners haven’t faced many good running games this season but have allowed:

  • 28 DraftKings points to Kyren Williams
  • 27.2 points to Jerome Ford + Kareem Hunt
  • 20.0 to Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon, Bengals ($6,200)

Mixon has benefitted from the return of a healthy Joe Burrow the past two weeks. He’s scored 20.0 and 17.8 DraftKings points, finding the end zone in both games.

Mixon has averaged 15 carries and four targets across those two games and is at 15.8 carries and 3.8 targets per game for the season.

He might be an even bigger part of the offense this weekend with WR Tee Higgins out and WR Ja’Marr Chase dealing with a back injury.

Mixon is about $1,000 underpriced for the matchup vs. a Texans defense sitting 23rd in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

Also consider:

  • Rachaad White, Bucs ($5,800)
  • Najee Harris, Steelers ($4,900)

 

Wide Receivers

Terry McLaurin, Commanders ($5,800)

After a slow start to the season, McLaurin has averaged 15.0 DraftKings points over his last six outings. And that’s despite scoring just one TD during that stretch.

McLaurin has averaged 9.2 targets, 5.7 catches, and 74 yards across those last six games, benefitting from an extremely pass-heavy Commanders offense. Washington ranks third in Pass Rate Over Expected and first in pass attempts per game.

Sunday brings a matchup with a Seahawks defense sitting 26th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.

Diontae Johnson, Steelers ($5,400)

Johnson is back to his target-hogging ways. 

He’s racked up 23 targets on a 31.5% share over the past two weeks, scoring 16.5 and then 22.0 DraftKings points.

Johnson gets a Packers secondary this weekend that’s really struggled this season – and will be without top CB Jaire Alexander.

Tyler Boyd, Bengals ($4,600)

Like the rest of Cincinnati’s offense, Boyd has come to life the past two weeks. He’s averaged a big 12.0 yards per target after mustering just 5.0 over his first six games.

That makes Boyd a strong fantasy play with WR Tee Higgins set to miss Sunday’s game vs. the Texans – and WR Ja’Marr Chase dealing with a back injury.

Boyd saw exactly seven targets with Higgins out or limited in Weeks 4, 5, and 6.

Also consider:

  • Tank Dell, Texans ($5,500)
  • Marquise Brown, Cardinals ($5,200)
  • Noah Brown, Texans ($3,700)

 

Tight End

Trey McBride, Cardinals ($3,500)

McBride bombed along with the rest of the Clayton Tune-led Cardinals offense last week.

But he registered a big 25% target share in that one – after soaking up 38% of Arizona’s targets in Week 8.

McBride is an excellent volume bet at this price tag. And QB Kyler Murray should be a significant upgrade over Tune (and even previous starting QB Joshua Dobbs).

McBride gets a Falcons defense that ranks 21st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs (compared to sixth vs. WRs).

 

Defense/Special Teams

Jaguars ($2,400)

The matchup is not good against a 49ers squad sitting first in adjusted fantasy points allowed to DSTs.

But the Jaguars are very cheap for a defense that’s been better than you probably realize – in both real life and fantasy football.

Jacksonville sits third in defensive DVOA, joining Cleveland and Baltimore as the only teams to rank top-five in both run defense and pass defense DVOA.

In terms of fantasy production, the Jaguars’ 9.0 DraftKings points per game are tied for sixth most among main-slate DSTs. They’ve scored 8+ DK points in six of eight games.

Other rankings are stale  before the 2nd round.

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