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Week 12 DraftKings Tournament Picks

By Jared Smola 8:49pm EST 11/25/23

Stacks

Josh Allen ($8,100) + Stefon Diggs ($8,800) or Gabriel Davis ($5,300) or Khalil Shakir or Dalton Kincaid ($5,300) 

Sometimes it’s as simple as this:

Allen has topped 27 DraftKings points three times this season – tied with Jalen Hurts for most among main-slate QBs.

The Eagles have allowed a league-high four QB outings of 27+ DK points.

Philadelphia is one of the biggest pass-funnel defenses in the NFL, ranking fifth in run defense DVOA but 19th in pass defense DVOA. Consequently, offenses have registered the second highest pass rate over expected against the Eagles.

The Bills don’t need to be convinced to chuck it. They already rank fourth in pass rate over expected on the season.

In what should be a competitive game throughout, Allen should have tons of opportunity to rack up fantasy points.

Do you need Diggs?

Diggs in an obviously strong – but not 100% necessary – stack with Allen. In those three games Allen topped 27 DK points this season, Diggs scored 39.0, 28.1, and 16.0 points.

If Allen is the tournament-winning QB, it’s more likely than not that you’ll want Diggs vs. the Eagles’ 31st-ranked WR defense.

Pairing those two guys is expensive – but it’s doable this week with a handful of sub-$4,000 WRs in play.

Allen without Diggs is viable, too. 

Davis is a particularly intriguing stackee given the matchup and the ceiling he’s displayed over the past few years. He’s totaled just 9.6 DK points over the past three games. But he went for 23.7 the game before that stretch and also has outings of 25.0 and 21.2 on his ledger this season.

Kincaid is one of the hottest TEs in fantasy football, ranking third at the position in PPR points over the last four weeks. He’s registered an elite 88% route rate and 23% target share during that stretch. The Eagles rank 20th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs.

And if you’re looking for a salary-saver in your Allen stack, consider Shakir. Like Kincaid, he’s seen a usage bump with TE Dawson Knox out the past four games, averaging 4.0 targets, 3.5 catches, and 72 yards on a 73% route rate.

Gardner Minshew ($5,100) + Michael Pittman ($6,800) + Josh Downs ($4,800)

The Buccaneers have emerged as one of the best matchups for opposing passing games. Just over their last six games, they’ve allowed:

  • 353-2-0 to Jared Goff
  • 324-2-1 to Josh Allen
  • 470-5-0 to C.J. Stroud
  • 333-3-0 to Brock Purdy

There have been four WRs games over 23+ DK points vs. Tampa Bay during that stretch, including three over 29.

This pass-funnel defense ranks third in run defense DVOA but 20th in pass defense. And offenses have registered the third highest pass rate over expected against the Bucs.

Tampa will be without CB Jamel Dean (ankle, foot) on Sunday, while CB Carlton Davis (hip) is listed as questionable.

Minshew has topped 16.6 DraftKings points just once this season – but that game was a huge 34.1-pointer.

Concentrated passing game

And if Minshew delivers, there’s a good chance that he’s bringing both Pittman and Downs along for the ride.

Downs was limited by a knee injury the past two games. But in the three prior to that, he and Pittman combined to account for:

  • 51% of the Colts’ receptions
  • 56% of the receiving yards
  • 80% of the receiving TDs

 

Running Backs

Derrick Henry, Titans ($6,400)

Henry gets a Panthers defense that ranks:

Perhaps more importantly, Henry’s Titans are 3.5-point home favorites.

Henry’s rushing lines in three Titans wins this season:

  • 25-80-1
  • 22-122-1
  • 22-101-0

Jaylen Warren, Steelers ($5,400)

Najee Harris, Steelers ($4,900)

The Steelers are quietly up to seventh in rush offense DVOA.

In five games since their bye, Warren and Harris have combined for 621 rushing yards and six TDs on 5.6 yards per carry. 

Warren has topped 22 DraftKings points twice in those five games and is the superior DraftKings play because of his passing-game role.

But Harris can deliver on his $4,900 price tag because of his role near the end zone. He’s handled nine of Pittsburgh’s 11 carries inside the 10-yard line this season. 

The Steelers’ running game is in a smash spot on Sunday as two-point favorites against the Bengals, who rank 30th in run defense DVOA and 17th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

Also consider:

  • Travis Etienne, Jaguars ($7,100)
  • Jonathan Taylor, Colts ($6,900)
  • Kyren Williams, Rams ($6,600)
  • Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs ($6,200)
  • Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots ($5,800)
  • Jerome Ford, Browns ($5,600)

 

Wide Receivers

Nico Collins, Texans ($6,400)

WR Tank Dell had (another) big game last week.

But Collins actually led the Texans with 11 targets (29% share).

Dell deserves to be considered the better fantasy bet at this point. But the gap is not nearly as wide as our projected ownership suggests. Dell is coming in at 18% to Collins’ 10%.

Let’s take the ownership and price discount on the guy who, just like Dell, has two games of 30+ DraftKings points this season.

Josh Downs, Colts ($4,800)

Downs was limited by a knee injury in his last two games. But he’s off the injury report coming off the bye week for a prime matchup against a Bucs defense that ranks 27th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.

In his four healthy games started by QB Gardner Minshew this season, Downs has averaged:

  • 8.8 targets
  • 6.3 catches
  • 69 yards
  • 0.5 TDs

Also consider:

  • Stefon Diggs, Bills ($8,800)
  • DeVonta Smith, Eagles ($7,100)
  • Tank Dell, Texans ($6,900)
  • Michael Pittman, Colts ($6,800)
  • Gabriel Davis, Bills ($5,300)
  • Drake London, Falcons ($5,000)
  • Rashid Shaheed, Saints ($4,300)
  • Khalil Shakir, Bills ($3,600)
  • Greg Dortch, Cardinals ($3,300)
  • Justin Watson, Chiefs ($3,000)

 

Tight Ends

Trey McBride, Cardinals ($4,700)

We’re eating some chalk here on McBride – although I’d argue that he deserves to be more owned than the 17% we project him at.

McBride underwhelmed with 9.3 DraftKings points last week.But he saw another seven targets on a 23% share. That gives him 35 targets on a 29% share over the last four games without TE Zach Ertz.

The volume should be strong again this week, especially with WR Michael Wilson out again and WR Marquise Brown iffy with a heel injury.

And the matchup is awesome against the Rams, who rank 30th in TE coverage DVOA and 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs.

Also consider:

  • Dalton Kincaid, Bills ($5,300)
  • Taysom Hill, Saints ($5,000)
  • Cade Otton, Buccaneers ($3,200)

 

Defense/Special Teams

Patriots ($3,200)

Chiefs ($3,100)

Eagles ($2,900)

 

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