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Week 14 DraftKings Cash-Game Picks

By Jared Smola 9:43pm EST 12/9/22


QB

Jared Goff, Lions ($5,600)

Goff is playing well, with a 69% completion rate, 7.6 yards per attempt and 5 TDs vs. 0 INTs over his last 4 outings.

Now he gets a plus matchup vs. the Vikings, who rank 24th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA over the last 5 weeks and 24th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs on the season.

Minnesota has been a bit tougher against the run, which could push the Lions to pass more than expected this week. That’s exactly what we saw last week against a pass-funnel Jaguars defense, when Detroit registered a season-high +12% Pass Rate Over Expected.

This game has a big 51.5-point over/under – easily the highest on the main slate. And the Lions have the 2nd-highest implied total on the slate at 26.75 points.

Also consider: Geno Smith ($6,200)


RBs

Dalvin Cook, Vikings ($7,300)

Cook has been getting elite usage for a while now. Omitting the blowout loss to Dallas when the Vikings pulled starters, Cook has played 75+% of the offensive snaps in 6 straight. He’s averaging 17.7 carries and 4.3 targets over those 6 games, ranking 7th among RBs in expected PPR points per game.

Cook is in easily the best game environment on this main slate, with the Vikings-Lions game boasting that 51.5-point over/under. Minnesota has a solid 24.75-point team total – 7th highest on the main slate.

Detroit’s defense has been better lately but still ranks just 18th against the run over the past 5 weeks, according to Football Outsiders DVOA.

Joe Mixon, Bengals ($6,900)

Mixon was a full-go in practice this week and will be back for Sunday’s game vs. the Browns. In case you were wondering, HC Zac Taylor confirmed that Mixon remains the starter. He averaged 16.8 carries and 5.6 targets in that role over the first 9 games of the season.

Mixon returns to an excellent matchup against a leaky Browns defense that ranks 29th in Football Outsiders DVOA over the past 5 weeks. Cleveland sits 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs on the season.

Mixon’s Bengals are 5.5-point home favorites with a 26-point implied total.

D’Andre Swift, Lions ($5,800)

There was a bit of a “here-we-go-again” feel when Swift showed up as limited in Wednesday’s practice. But he was a full-go on Thursday and Friday and isn’t listed on the final injury report.

So expect him to play a similar role to last week, when he racked up 14 carries and 6 targets on a 51% snap rate.

Swift figures to find himself in a shootout on Sunday against a Vikings squad that ranks 15th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA over the last 5 weeks and 20th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

Minnesota has particularly struggled against RBs in the passing game. They sit 24th in Football Outsiders’ RB coverage rankings and have allowed the 6th most catches and 2nd most receiving yards to RBs.

Also consider: Christian McCaffrey ($8,500)


WRs

Chris Godwin, Bucs ($6,700)

Godwin has averaged 11.0 targets per game over the last 5, with 8+ in all of them. He ranks 9th among WRs in expected PPR points per game during that stretch.

Godwin should be busy again on Sunday against a 49ers defense that’s much tougher against outside WRs than slots. Godwin has played 66% of his snaps in the slot this season.

Christian Kirk, Jaguars ($6,600)

Like Godwin, Kirk is simply an excellent target bet for this price tag. He’s tallied 8+ targets in 4 straight games and 7+ in 6 straight. Only 10 WRs have more total targets this season.

Kirk gets a pass-funnel Titans defense on Sunday that ranks dead last in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.

Just make sure QB Trevor Lawrence is active on Sunday.

Garrett Wilson, Jets ($5,900)

Wilson has racked up 23 targets on a 26% share from QB Mike White over the past 2 weeks, scoring 26.4 and then 27.2 DK points.

His Jets are 10-point underdogs in Buffalo this weekend, so we could get elevated passing volume. The Bills rank just 18th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA over the last 5 weeks and 18th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs on the season.

Wilson posted an 8-92 line on 9 targets vs. the Bills back in Week 9, with Zach Wilson under center.

Also consider: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800), Tyler Lockett ($6,500), Zay Jones ($4,700), Michel Gallup ($4,600)


TE

Chig Okonkwo, Titans ($2,700)

This is partly a salary-saving play – but I’m also low-key pumped about Okonwko this week.

The rookie has seen 5 targets in 2 straight games and registered a season-high 56% route rate last week. His role might continue to grow on Sunday with WR Treylon Burks out with a concussion.

And that’s exciting for a guy who’s drawn a target on a strong 24% of his routes and averaged a huge 18.3 yards per catch this season.

He also has a plus matchup against the pass-funnel Jaguars defense that Football Outsiders ranks 31st in TE coverage.

Also consider: Greg Dulcich ($3,400)


DST

Jets ($2,500)

The Jets put up 10 DK points in their Week 9 meeting vs. the Bills and have averaged 6.7 points in the 3 games since. They’re up to 5th in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA.

The Bills, meanwhile, have turned it over 6 times and allowed 9 sacks in the 4 games since that first Jets game.

Also consider: Steelers ($2,800)


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