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Week 16 DraftKings Cash-Game Picks

By Jared Smola 9:45pm EST 12/22/23

Top Plays for DraftKings Head-to-Head and 50/50 Contests

Here are the guys I’m zeroing in on for DraftKings Week 16 cash games:

Quarterback

Justin Fields, Bears ($7,100)

On a main slate with no Christian McCaffrey and a banged-up Tyreek Hill, it makes sense to pay up at QB.

Fields checks in as the top dollars-per-point value at QB.

He’s racked up 49 carries in four games back from injury. That includes 8.8 designed runs per game, which is 1.6 more than any other QB.

Fields’ floor and ceiling are elevated in Sunday’s plus matchup vs. the Cardinals. Arizona ranks:

  • 30th in run defense DVOA
  • 31st in pass defense DVOA
  • 25th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs

Chicago’s 23.5-point implied total is the fifth highest on the main slate.

Also consider:

  • Geno Smith, Seahawks ($5,800)

 

Running Backs

Bijan Robinson, Falcons ($6,300)

This might seem like a risky (reckless?) play after Robinson’s Week 15 dud.

But remember that he got awesome usage in the four games prior, averaging 16.5 carries and 5.0 targets. He ranked third among RBs in expected PPR points per game over that stretch; fourth in actual PPR points per game.

I’m willing to bet on Arthur Smith wising up and remembering once again that Robinson is his best player.

And this week’s matchup is excellent. Robinson draws a Colts team that ranks 23rd in run defense DVOA and 30th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

The Falcons are 2.5-point home favorites with a 23.75-point implied total – fourth highest on the main slate.

Ty Chandler, Vikings ($5,600)

Chandler’s matchup is much tougher this week than last, when he smoked a bad Bengals run defense.

The Lions rank fifth in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs and fourth in run defense DVOA. They’ve surrendered just 3.5 yards per carry to RBs.

But we don’t pass up RBs with Chandler’s projected volume and salary in cash games.

He got workhorse usage last week:

  • 81% snap rate 
  • 44% route rate
  • 23 of 24 RB carries
  • 4 targets (12% share)

And HC Kevin O’Connell made it clear multiple times this week that Chandler will remain the clear lead back even if RB Alexander Mattison (questionable, ankle) returns for Sunday’s game.

Devin Singletary, Texans ($5,500)

Singletary’s playing time and volume have ebbed and flowed in the four games since RB Dameon Pierce returned from his injury.

But Singletary is coming off a busy and productive Week 15, turning 30 touches into 170 total yards. He’s been the team’s most effective back all season and deserves lead-back usage the rest of the way.

In fact, Singletary should be a focal point of Houston’s game plan this Sunday against a run-funnel Cleveland defense that ranks 29th in pass rate over expected against.

The Browns played the run tough through the first 10 weeks of the season. But they rank 17th in run defense DVOA over the last five, coughing up 4.4 yards per carry to RBs.

Also consider:

  • Rachaad White, Bucs ($7,400)
  • Tony Pollard, Cowboys ($6,700)

 

Wide Receivers

D.J. Moore, Bears ($6,900)

Moore is coming off a quiet Week 15 against a tough Browns secondary.

That broke a streak of three straight games with 22+ DraftKings points.

He still drew eight targets last week and is averaging 10.0 per game with QB Justin Fields over his last four outings.

Couple that volume with Sunday’s plus matchup against the Cardinals’ 17th-ranked WR defense, and Moore provides a nice combination of safety and upside.

Garrett Wilson, Jets ($5,800)

We’ve got a super-talented WR averaging 9.9 targets per game facing the league’s worst WR defense.

I could be playing QB for the Jets this week and I’d still use Wilson in cash.

It might not be pretty with QB Trevor Siemian, but Wilson is a good bet to deliver value at this price tag.

Dontayvion Wicks, Packers ($4,300)

WR Christian Watson (hamstring) is doubtful for Week 16. WR Jayden Reed (toe, chest) is listed as questionable but didn’t practice all week.

That leaves Wicks as the best fantasy bet in Green Bay’s WR corps this weekend.

The rookie is having a sneaky good season. He leads Packers WRs and ranks 27th among 84 qualifiers league-wide with 2.0 yards per route. Wicks’ 20% target per route rate trails Reed but is tied with Watson and ahead of Romeo Doubs.

Sunday’s matchup vs. the Panthers’ second-ranked WR defense isn’t ideal. But Wicks should do enough to deliver cash-game value at his $4,300 salary.

Also consider:

  • Michael Pittman, Colts ($7,400)
  • Drake London, Falcons ($5,100)

 

Tight Ends

Trey McBride, Cardinals ($5,700)

It’s rare that I’ll pay this much at TE in cash.

But McBride is getting rare usage for the position – and turning it into big fantasy production.

In five games with QB Kyler Murray, McBride has averaged:

  • 9.0 targets
  • 7.6 catches
  • 85 yards

He’s second among TEs in expected PPR points per game over that stretch and first in actual PPR points per game.

WR Marquise Brown (heel) is out this weekend, while WR Greg Dortch (shoulder) is questionable. That only boosts McBride’s target ceiling.

And he gets a Bears defense that’s significantly weaker vs. TEs than any other position. Chicago sits 28th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs.

Also consider:

  • David Njoku, Browns ($5,300)
  • Tyler Conklin, Jets ($3,200)

 

Defense/Special Teams

Bears ($2,800)

The Bears have been playing strong real-life defense for a while now. They’ve held four of their last five opponents to 20 points or fewer.

From a fantasy standpoint, Chicago has ripped off 14, 14, and 17 DraftKings points the last three games, totaling 10 sacks, 10 takeaways, and one TD.

The Bears are four-point home favorites this weekend for a Cardinals offense with a shaky offensive line and banged-up WR corps.

Arizona is implied for only 19.5 points.

Also consider:

  • Jets ($3,100)

 

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