Week 4 FanDuel Tournament Picks
Justin Herbert, Chargers ($8,000) at Texans
Ownership Projection: 6%
It’s easy to understand why Herbert — despite a reasonable price tag — is only projected for 6% ownership. His rib injury and the absence of Keenan Allen (hamstring) zaps some fantasy appeal.
But I’ll still back one of the game’s top talents with an implied total of 25.5 — tied for 3rd highest on the main slate. Houston represents a positive matchup as well, ranking 22nd in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs. And a banged up Chargers defense -- missing EDGE Joey Bosa -- could turn this game into a sneaky-shootout.
Jonathan Taylor, Colts ($8,700) vs. Titans
Ownership Projection: 21%
There aren't many sure-fire (or close to it) RBs this week, which explains Taylor’s 21% owned rate. But I’ll look past that figure for a chance to capture his huge upside against a beatable Titans run D allowing 6.1 YPC.
Taylor, with only 1 score, hasn’t returned value as a top-2 pick in redraft leagues. But he ranks T-2nd among RBs in red zone opportunities (12). Taylor retains a fantasy ceiling that’s tough to beat.
Cordarrelle Patterson, Falcons ($7,600) vs. Browns
Ownership Projection: 4%
Patterson enters with 100+ rushing yards in 2 of 3 games. He’s handled a strong 69% of Atlanta's backfield carries.
Week 4 turns up a Browns defense that’ll be without DT Taven Bryan and potentially EDGE Jadeveon Clowney (ankle) and DL Myles Garrett (biceps, shoulder) as well.
Patterson did land on the injury report with a knee, but he practiced (limited) on Friday. We’ll have to keep an eye on his status leading up to kickoff.
Breece Hall, Jets ($6,300) at Steelers
Ownership Projection: 2%
Last week, Hall set season highs in route rate, snap rate, carries and targets. So we could be seeing a changing of the guard in the Jets backfield.
Now, there’s certainly plenty of risk here. We’re not sure how Zach Wilson will look in his 2022 debut. And our Week 4 projections don’t exactly have Hall for 20 touches.
But between Hall’s true talent and a sneaky-good matchup with Pittsburgh — they're allowing the 2nd-most adjusted fantasy points to enemy RBs — I think there’s enough for him to enter the tournament discussion.
Mike Williams, Chargers ($7,200) at Texans
Ownership Projection: 11%
With Keenan Allen out, Williams becomes an easy stacking partner with Justin Herbert.
Sure, we know about Williams’ volatile nature. Two of his games have gone for 10 and 15 yards. But he also hit up the Chiefs for 8-113-1 in a Week 2 game with Allen sidelined.
Facing a young Texans secondary, he’s someone to circle alongside Herbert. Also note that Josh Palmer is a very reasonable $5,800.
Courtland Sutton, Broncos ($6,800) at Raiders
Ownership Projection: 17%
Sutton ranks 4th league-wide in air yards. He’s even seen a pair of end zone targets on a ~28% target share. Yet, though 3 games (and 28 targets) he’s yet to find the end zone alongside Russell Wilson.
I think we'll see this passing game find its stride as the season rolls along. And while this matchup looks tough on paper through 3 weeks, I don't see the Raiders secondary as one we’ll need to worry about.
Treylon Burks, Titans ($5,700) at Colts
We’re getting Burks at a nice discount after his 1-catch game vs. Vegas.
Dig deeper, though, and you’ll see that he ran a route on a season-high 97% of Tennessee’s dropbacks in Week 3. The Colts represent a neutral matchup on defense, but you're simply buying opportunity + talent here.
I mentioned D.J. Moore ($6100) as a cash-game dice-roll…but he certainly fits on the tournament side if you can stomach the risk. Give him a slight boost if Christian McCaffrey (thigh) is ruled out. Stefon Diggs ($8,700, at Ravens) narrowly leads the week in WR ceiling projection. Unfortunately, the favorable matchup also comes with a projected owned rate of 22%, but it doesn’t make him an instant-avoid. That's especially true if Gabe Davis (ankle) is sidelined.
Darren Waller, Raiders ($6,500) vs. Broncos
Vegas enters the weekend without WR Hunter Renfrow (concussion) or backup TE Foster Moreau (knee). That’ll push Waller into a major role, especially if Davante Adams and Mack Hollins have their hands full with CB Patrick Surtain.
Cowboys ($4,700) vs. Commanders
Washington enters Sunday without C Wes Scheweitzer, who’s already had to fill-in for the team’s starter. LT Charles Leno is questionable with a shoulder issue.
Carson Wentz enters with 3 fumbles and 3 INTs through 3 games. He’s also taken 14(!) sacks over the past 2 games.
Dallas, meanwhile, ranks 1st league-wide in sacks (13). It's among the biggest D-line/O-line mismatches this week.