Here’s a quick outline of our offseason projections process …
Through early spring, Jared and I each independently create our own projections for every team.
At some point in early May, the whole Draft Sharks staff gathers to decide how to mush everyone’s thoughts and numbers together into a single set of projections that doesn’t leave anyone fuming (too much).
A week or 2 later, we roll them out to you.
And then right about this time of year, I tell you to ignore them.
Obviously, I’m not talking about disregarding the numbers completely. If they were that unimportant, we wouldn’t bother generating them.
But the base projections are really just a starting point for your draft. Over the past few years, we have made them more robust. We have factored “replacement points” into the ranking equation, which account for what you can expect to get when your starter misses time. We display “ceiling” and “floor” projections on your MVP Board, to show who comes with high upside and who bears the red flag of risk.
We also give you a “consensus” projection for each player on your MVP Board, which averages the numbers from 34 other fantasy sites. You can see where we differ most vs. the crowd and discover some players who just might differentiate your team.
And that’s the key. Your best bet for winning in fantasy football isn’t just going down your draft list and taking the next guy when your turn comes up.
There will be times when you should reach a little for upside. You might want to stack a teammate with a player you already drafted to maximize their impact on your lineup. You might need an insurance option behind a volatile starter. And there are always bye weeks to consider.
All of that is why you need to ignore our rankings at some point as you build your roster(s). And here’s where we recommend you start ...