What You Need to Know:

• Jones fell from 15th among QBs in fantasy points per game as a rookie to just 29th last year. But a deeper look reveals some signals of improvement.
• Jones significantly improved his Pro Football Focus grades in every category.
  • He climbed from 25th in passing grade in 2019 among 29 QBs with 150+ dropbacks to 18th of 41 last season.
  • Jones also went from 27th in rushing grade up to 11th.
• He also improved as a deep passer. As a rookie, Jones ranked 32nd in adjusted completion rate on deep balls among 38 QBs with 15+ deep attempts, according to PFF. He also ranked just 24th in deep-passing grade. In 2020, Jones jumped to 8th in adjusted completion rate, 3rd in deep-passing grade and #1 in passer rating on deep balls.
• His propensity for turnovers was 1 of the biggest knocks on Jones’ rookie year. He got better in that category as well. After ranking 36th in turnover-worthy throw percentage in 2019 (among 39 qualifiers), Jones climbed to a tie for 19th among 41 in 2020.
• Jones brings rushing value. The infamous 80-yard faceplant run at Philly inflated Jones’ rushing numbers a bit in 2020. But he has finished 8th and 5th among QBs in rushing yards per game so far. Even if you change the 80-yard run to his rookie-year average run of 6.2, Jones would still have ranked 9th last season. And 2 of the 7 QBs ahead of him in 2019 were Jeff Driskel and Ryan Finley, who played just 3 games apiece.
• A large part of Jones’ disappointing sophomore season was a lack of TDs. He ranked 31st in passing-TD rate, tied with Sam Darnold and ahead of only Alex Smith, Cam Newton and Dwayne Haskins (among qualifiers).
  • Part of that was bad luck: According to Pro Football Reference: Jones tied for 20th in red-zone pass attempts and 24th in pass attempts inside the 10. He tied for just 30th in TDs for each range.
  • Another part is the surrounding talent. The Giants tried to address that by giving Kenny Golladay the largest WR contract in free agency, drafting Kadarius Toney in Round 1 and even signing TE Kyle Rudolph, a reliable short-range receiver. The return of RB Saquon Barkley from his ACL tear certainly won’t hurt either.
• Jones still struggles when pressured. He ranked just 29th in passing grade when pressured last season, among 39 QBs with 50+ pressured dropbacks. That marked a downturn after Jones tied for 14th in that category in 2019. He had issues in that area in college as well.
• The Giants’ O-line ranked just 27th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate and last in PFF pass-blocking grade.
• It’s not clear whether they actually upgraded that unit. The Giants get OT Nate Solder back after he opted out of 2020, but Solder ranked just 52nd in pass-blocking grade for 2019 among 85 tackles with 160+ pass-blocking snaps.
• The team also dumped G Kevin Zeitler, its highest-graded pass-blocker each of the past 2 years.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

There’s fantasy upside to Jones, which he already showed us as a rookie. Even amid a disappointing sophomore campaign, he offered signals of improvement. The Giants worked to add pass-catching talent this offseason, but an iffy-to-poor offensive line still threatens a QB who has been mistake prone. The best thing about Jones’ fantasy outlook for 2021 is that he’s now going late -- around the bottom of QB2 range. That’s a low/no-risk price.