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Daniel Jones thrived in Shane Steichen's system in 2025, posting QB12 fantasy numbers per game thanks to efficient passing and a hot rushing start. But a December Achilles’ tear clouds everything, threatening his availability and the vital mobility. Jones is fine at his QB25 ADP, but beware of trusting him beyond low-QB2 territory.
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Jones' 2025 season was his best performance since 2022. His 18.0 fantasy points per game marked a big jump vs. his previous two seasons:
Season | FPTS/G | Rank |
2022 | 18.4 | QB10 |
2023 | 10.5 | QB42 |
2024 | 16.0 | QB22 |
2025 | 18.0 | QB12 |
Six of Jones’ starts ended as top-12 fantasy weeks, with only one of his other six healthy weeks falling out of the top-18 QBs. That gave him low-end QB1 value in Steichen’s offense, especially early in the season.
Jones’ rushing production mattered, but there was a big asterisk. He scored 5 rushing TDs through Week 13, tied for fourth among QBs, and converted five of six carries from inside the 5.
The problem? Jones ran for two TDs in the first week of the season causing a spike in his fantasy scoring via the run.
He stayed fairly consistent after that with three more rushing scores over the course of the season.
His scramble and designed-run rates stayed fairly steady all season. Jones finished with 22 scrambles and 23 designed runs, giving him a scheme-backed rushing role that still left room for production.
Jones only had two games with 300+ yards passing, but his rushing helped keep Jones above QB18 in 11 of his 12 full games played.
The Steichen offense also leaned on Jones to pass more than previous iterations. Across Jones’ 12 full games, this was Steichen’s highest pass rate over expected.
Pass Rate | Neutral Pass Rate | PROE | |
|---|---|---|---|
2023 | 56.4% | 54.8% | -1.1% |
2024 | 52.4% | 49.7% | -6.4% |
2025 (12 Jones games) | 56.1% | 55.6% | +3.1% |
2025 (5 Other Games) | 54.1% | 55.2% | -7.5% |
Jones also threw efficiently, posting a 67.2% completion rate against a 63.0% expected mark. His +4.2% completion rate over expected ranked sixth among 42 QBs with 150 attempts, a sign he wasn’t just living on easy, short throws.
The season came to a halt when Jones suffered an Achilles’ tear at the end of the first quarter in Week 14. He missed the rest of the season and put his start of 2026 in doubt.
The most pressing question for 2026 is simply whether Jones will be on the field. His December Achilles tear came with a six-to-eight-month recovery timeline. That would bring him back around mid-August at the long end, leaving little margin for setbacks and real risk that he misses games or opens the season compromised.
The bigger concern is whether Jones can replicate his rushing production even if he’s ready for Week 1. A slower start physically could mean fewer designed runs, fewer scrambles, and a tougher path back to five rushing TDs, which mattered a lot to his fantasy value.
Jones returned in 2024 from a Week 9 ACL tear in 2023 and saw his rushing production decline slightly. He averaged 26.5 rushing yards per game with 4 yards per carry. That was down from his career averages to that point of 31.9 rushing yards per game with 5.77 yards per carry.
An Achilles injury could impact rushing even more than an ACL, but Jones slowed down a bit (especially on a per carry basis) after his ACL injury.
The supporting cast also took a hit. Michael Pittman Jr. drew a 21.5% target share and ranked 17th among WRs in PPR points before Jones’ injury. The Colts traded him to Pittsburgh after the season and didn’t import any comparable piece.
Alec Pierce now sits atop the WR depth chart after signing a four-year, $114 million extension. He ranked 16th in yards per route run, led the league in target air yards, and set career highs across the board in 2025. But ankle surgery clouds his early-season status, and before last year he’d mostly operated as a deep threat with limited target volume.
Josh Downs returns in the slot bur his playing time was down in 2025. His catches per game at 3.63 were the worst of his career as well. There has been some positive buzz around Downs from GM Chris Ballard
Tyler Warren showed upside at TE as a potential top weapon for the team as well. He certainly profiles as a pass catcher who could make up for Pittman’s departure as a short-to-intermediate target option.
Jonathan Taylor will remain the engine of this offense, especially if Jones’ injury affects the QB’s play. Indianapolis’ run game volume already caps Jones’ pass volume with Taylor leading the league in rushing attempts at 323 in 2025. He will likely be atop the league again and be the Colts’ best path to early offensive success.
2025 may have shown us Jones’ ceiling. He got to low-end QB1 territory with the team passing more than expected with Jones, but take away Pittman, add uncertainty around Pierce, and factor in real mobility concerns after the injury, and the path back there gets much narrower.
If he’s healthy and Pierce is ready, the efficient passing and favorable system can still make Jones streamable. But with late-round QB depth plentiful, he’s a dart throw rather than a reliable fantasy asset.And like Barkley, Taylor’s receiving doesn’t match the level of the three RBs joining him at the top of the ADP board (Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, and Christian McCaffrey).
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Daniel Jones Passing Every Test So Far
Daniel Jones Passing Every Test So Far
Colts QB Daniel Jones has been a full participant in training camp, according to The Athletic's James Boyd, taking every first-team rep across the first four training camp practices. Teammates say he looks like the same guy who opened last season strong before suffering a fibula fracture and then a torn Achilles.
Daniel Jones Cleared for Camp, but Achilles Questions Still Cloud 2026 Value
Daniel Jones Cleared for Camp, but Achilles Questions Still Cloud 2026 Value
Colts QB Daniel Jones confirmed on the Pat McAfee show that he's been fully cleared for training camp and will fully participate when camp opens this week. Jones has been working his way back from an Achilles injury he suffered last December. Jones' full participation in training camp means he should be ready for the start of the season.
Daniel Jones Cleared, but Post-Achilles Efficiency Concerns Remain
Daniel Jones Cleared, but Post-Achilles Efficiency Concerns Remain
Colts QB Daniel Jones told reporters that he's been "cleared to do everything." He's spent the offseason working back from his December 7 Achilles tear. Jones has had a smooth recovery by all accounts and participated in 7-on-7 drills in June minicamp.
Colts Brass Praise Tyler Warren’s Second-Year Development
Colts Brass Praise Tyler Warren’s Second-Year Development
The Colts expect Tyler Warren to take a step forward in Year 2, according to Mike Chappell of Fox 59. HC Shane Steichen said Warren is still growing and specifically pointed to improvement “coming in and out of breaks”. QB Daniel Jones said Warren is already “making a jump” this offseason. Warren finished TE11 with 11.1 PPR points per game, the 10th-most ever by a rookie TE, so another step could push him into the top three at the position, especially in PPR.
Daniel Jones Cleared for 7 on 7 ... But Does That Change Anything?
Daniel Jones Cleared for 7 on 7 ... But Does That Change Anything?
Colts QB Daniel Jones was cleared Monday to participate in 7-on-7 drills as he works back from a right Achilles tear. He's expected to sit out full-team workouts until training camp.
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