What You Need to Know:

• Mahomes racked up 4,839 passing yards and 37 TDs last season. Both marks ranked 4th league-wide.
• He completed 66.3% of his passes – his 4th straight season with a completion rate between 65.9% and 66.3%.
• Mahomes’ 7.4 yards per attempt last year was easily a career low. It ranked 13th among 33 qualifiers.
• Defenses keyed on Kansas City’s deep passing game. As a result …
  • Mahomes’ 7.6-yard average depth of throw was a career low and ranked 30th among 36 qualifiers.
  • Just 9.7% of his passes traveled 20+ yards downfield – also a career low and 29th among those 36 qualifiers.
• Mahomes was still excellent when he threw deep.
  • His 47.4% completion rate on passes of 20+ yards ranked 4th.
  • He ranked 8th in Pro Football Focus’ deep passing grades.
• Mahomes finished 4th among QBs in both total fantasy points and fantasy points per game.
  • His 12 top-12 scoring weeks tied Justin Herbert for most among QBs.
  • Mahomes scored as a top-5 QB 5 times – tied for 6th most.
• His finishes in fantasy points per game in his first 3 seasons as Kansas City’s starter:
  • 2018 - 1st
  • 2019 - 6th
  • 2020 - 3rd
• The Chiefs traded WR Tyreek Hill to Miami in March.
• Here’s the percentage of Mahomes’ passing fantasy points Hill accounted for in each of the last 4 seasons:
  • 2018 - 27.5%
  • 2019 - 18.7%
  • 2020 - 32.3%
  • 2021 - 26.0%
• The Chiefs also lost WRs Byron Pringle and Demarcus Robinson this offseason. Those 2 combined for 15.0% of the Chiefs’ targets, 15.0% of the receptions, 16.9% of the receiving yards and 21.6% of the receiving scores last year.
• The Chiefs made 3 big additions at WR this offseason:
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster signed a 1-year, $3.25 million deal. A shoulder injury limited him to just 5 games last season, and he underwhelmed the previous 2 years. But Smith-Schuster posted 58-917-7 and 111-1,426-7 lines in his first 2 NFL campaigns and is still only 25.
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling inked a 3-year, $30 million deal. He boasts 4.3 speed and averaged 17.5 yards per catch in Green Bay over the last 4 seasons.
  • Skyy Moore arrived in Round 2 of the NFL Draft. The Western Michigan is coming off a big 95-1,292-10 line in 2021, finishing 3rd in Pro Football Focus’ receiving grades.
• TE Travis Kelce, WR Mecole Hardman and RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire also return for the Chiefs.
• The 2021 Chiefs ranked 6th in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades and 4th in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Sack Rate. They return all 5 starters for 2022.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Mahomes ranked 4th among QBs in fantasy points last year – following 1st, 6th and 3rd-place finishes the previous 3 seasons.

The big story heading into 2022, of course, is the departure of WR Tyreek Hill, who’s accounted for about a quarter of Mahomes’ passing fantasy points over the last 4 years.

The Chiefs added WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore and return TE Travis Kelce, WR Mecole Hardman and RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, so there’s still plenty to work with here. Mahomes will operate behind a strong offensive line.

His elite skill set keeps his fantasy floor high. But the loss of Hill undoubtedly lowers Mahomes’ fantasy ceiling. There’s a good chance he goes too early in your fantasy draft this year.