Bottom Line

Mahomes is arguably the most reliable player in fantasy football. He’s finished as a top-7 QB in fantasy points per game in all five seasons since taking over as Chiefs starter. That includes a second-place finish last year – despite a shaky WR corps.

The WR corps doesn’t look any better heading into 2023. But TE Travis Kelce and RB Jerick McKinnon are back.

And Mahomes is Mahomes.

He doesn’t have quite as much upside as Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts because Mahomes doesn’t offer a ton of rushing production. But he’s a safe bet for another top-5 fantasy season in 2023.

What We Learned Last Year

• Mahomes led all QBs in total fantasy points last year and ranked second to only Josh Allen in fantasy points per game.
• Here are Mahomes’ finishes in fantasy points per game since taking over as the Chiefs’ starter in 2018:
  • first
  • seventh
  • fifth
  • third
  • second
• He’s the only QB to finish top-7 in points per game in each of the last five seasons.
• Mahomes has posted a completion rate between 65.9% and 67.1% in all five of those seasons.
• After sinking to a career-low 7.4 yards per attempt in 2021, Mahomes rebounded to 8.1 last year. That ranked second among 33 qualifiers.
• His 308.8 passing yards per game last year were the second most of his career.
• Mahomes accomplished that with a subpar WR corps. JuJu Smith-Schuster was the only Chiefs WR to reach 700 receiving yards. No Chiefs WR topped four receiving scores.
• Mahomes suffered a right high-ankle sprain in the Divisional Round game vs. the Jaguars. He was able to play in the AFC Championship and Super Bowl.

What to Expect in 2023

• Mahomes admitted in April that his right ankle still wasn’t back to 100%. But he expects it to be by training camp. It shouldn’t be a factor this season.
• Kansas City’s WR corps remains questionable heading into 2023. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman departed in free agency. The Chiefs added veteran Richie James and rookie Rashee Rice. Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling return from last year’s squad. None of those guys have reached 700 receiving yards in an NFL season.
• But Travis Kelce is back after another huge season (110-1,338-12).
• Kansas City also re-signed RB Jerick McKinnon, who ranked third on the team in catches (56), fourth in receiving yards (512), and second in receiving scores (9) last year.
• OC Eric Bieniemy left Kansas City to take a HC job in Washington. He’ll be replaced by Matt Nagy, who was Kansas City's QBs coach last year and has 11 total seasons working with HC Andy Reid. Don’t expect Bieniemy’s departure to have a tangible impact on the offense.