Show Navigation
Show Menu
Player Profile

Patrick Mahomes - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsPatrick Mahomes's Basic Stats

Patrick Mahomes
ADP: N/A
Bye: 8
Experience: 5 Yr(s)
Age: 27.2
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 230
40 Time: 4.80
SPARQx (Rank): 99.80 (81%)
Burst Score (Rank): 109.50 (45%)
Agility Score (Rank): 10.96 (95%)
Throw Velocity (Rank): 60.00 (97%)

Patrick Mahomes's Weekly Outlook

Week 14 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
296.3 2.1 0.7 21.1 21.9
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
294.8 2.4 0.7 22.4 23.1

Patrick Mahomes's 2022 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#4 Quarterback

365.2 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
Not Available 416/640 4882 35.4 12.2 68 346.8 3.1

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsPatrick Mahomes's Preseason Player Analysis

View QB Fantasy Rankings »
What You Need to Know:
  • Mahomes racked up 4,839 passing yards and 37 TDs last season. Both marks ranked 4th league-wide.
  • He completed 66.3% of his passes – his 4th straight season with a completion rate between 65.9% and 66.3%.
  • Mahomes’ 7.4 yards per attempt last year was easily a career low. It ranked 13th among 33 qualifiers.
  • Defenses keyed on Kansas City’s deep passing game. As a result …
    • Mahomes’ 7.6-yard average depth of throw was a career low and ranked 30th among 36 qualifiers.
    • Just 9.7% of his passes traveled 20+ yards downfield – also a career low and 29th among those 36 qualifiers.
  • Mahomes was still excellent when he threw deep.
    • His 47.4% completion rate on passes of 20+ yards ranked 4th.
    • He ranked 8th in Pro Football Focus’ deep passing grades.
  • Mahomes finished 4th among QBs in both total fantasy points and fantasy points per game.
    • His 12 top-12 scoring weeks tied Justin Herbert for most among QBs.
    • Mahomes scored as a top-5 QB 5 times – tied for 6th most.
  • His finishes in fantasy points per game in his first 3 seasons as Kansas City’s starter:
    • 2018 - 1st
    • 2019 - 6th
    • 2020 - 3rd
  • The Chiefs traded WR Tyreek Hill to Miami in March.
  • Here’s the percentage of Mahomes’ passing fantasy points Hill accounted for in each of the last 4 seasons:
    • 2018 - 27.5%
    • 2019 - 18.7%
    • 2020 - 32.3%
    • 2021 - 26.0%
  • The Chiefs also lost WRs Byron Pringle and Demarcus Robinson this offseason. Those 2 combined for 15.0% of the Chiefs’ targets, 15.0% of the receptions, 16.9% of the receiving yards and 21.6% of the receiving scores last year.
  • The Chiefs made 3 big additions at WR this offseason:
    • JuJu Smith-Schuster signed a 1-year, $3.25 million deal. A shoulder injury limited him to just 5 games last season, and he underwhelmed the previous 2 years. But Smith-Schuster posted 58-917-7 and 111-1,426-7 lines in his first 2 NFL campaigns and is still only 25.
    • Marquez Valdes-Scantling inked a 3-year, $30 million deal. He boasts 4.3 speed and averaged 17.5 yards per catch in Green Bay over the last 4 seasons.
    • Skyy Moore arrived in Round 2 of the NFL Draft. The Western Michigan is coming off a big 95-1,292-10 line in 2021, finishing 3rd in Pro Football Focus’ receiving grades.
  • TE Travis Kelce, WR Mecole Hardman and RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire also return for the Chiefs.
  • The 2021 Chiefs ranked 6th in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades and 4th in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Sack Rate. They return all 5 starters for 2022.
Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Mahomes ranked 4th among QBs in fantasy points last year – following 1st, 6th and 3rd-place finishes the previous 3 seasons.

The big story heading into 2022, of course, is the departure of WR Tyreek Hill, who’s accounted for about a quarter of Mahomes’ passing fantasy points over the last 4 years.

The Chiefs added WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore and return TE Travis Kelce, WR Mecole Hardman and RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, so there’s still plenty to work with here. Mahomes will operate behind a strong offensive line.

His elite skill set keeps his fantasy floor high. But the loss of Hill undoubtedly lowers Mahomes’ fantasy ceiling. There’s a good chance he goes too early in your fantasy draft this year.

Adjust Patrick Mahomes's Projections

We'll recalculate this player's Projections (DS Proj/ only) and DMVP based on your opinion of the player. This adjustments will be made for ALL of your leagues on Draft Sharks

Go to My Account to see a full list of your adjustments.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Patrick Mahomes, QB KC

1:31pm EST 12/7/22

Mahomes has bruised foot

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes told reporters on Wednesday that he suffered a bruised foot in last week's loss to the Bengals. He added that he'll practice on Wednesday and doesn't expect the foot to be an issue vs. the Broncos this weekend. We'll keep an eye on Mahomes over the next few days but aren't adjusting his Week 14 projections.

View all Patrick Mahomes Shark Bites »

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes threw for a season-low 223 yards on 16-of-27 passing in Sunday's loss to the Bengals. K.C. leaned more toward the run than usual, going 55.5% pass vs. 44.5% run. Mahomes threw just 1 TD pass for the 2nd week in a row, finding RB Jerick McKinnon from 2 yards out in the 2nd quarter. Mahomes did, at least, run for a 3-yard TD in the 3rd quarter to help his fantasy line. Next comes a Denver defense that has been tough on the pass for much of the year. Mahomes threw for 184 and 270 in last year's 2 meetings with the Broncos.

View all Patrick Mahomes Shark Bites »

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes didn't have his sharpest outing in Sunday's win over the Rams. He did throw for 320 yards, hitting 10 different teammates with no Chief collecting more than 57 receiving yards. TE Travis Kelce led in yards and targets (8), claiming the TD among his 4 catches. Rookie WR Skyy Moore led the team with 5 catches (for just 36 yards) among 6 targets. WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling was the only other Chief to catch more than 3 balls or crack 40 yards.

View all Patrick Mahomes Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Patrick Mahomes, QB KC
Dynasty MVP 348.0
Position Rank #6 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
1,066
1,764
3,361
Dynasty Write-up
Mahomes’ fantasy floor dipped in 2021, a year that saw him post a career-high 13 INTs. Yet he finished as a top-4 fantasy passer for the 3rd time over the past 4 seasons. He’s signed through the 2031 season but is now without WR Tyreek Hill. New WR JuJu Smith-Schuster is signed only for 2022. The draft brought promising WR Skyy Moore.
Winning Your League Starts Here Trophy

Why Wouldn’t You Invest
$36 to Win Your League?

Check out thisleague-winning info

2022 Draft Package Now - Sept 15th

$39

Get Instant Access
2022 In-Season Package Sept 5th - Mar 7th

$39

Get Access Sept. 5th
2022 DFS Package Sept 5th - Mar 7th

$49

Get Access Sept. 5th
Best Value – All Access Pass
DS Insider Membership All 3 Packages

$127 $36

Semi-annual auto-renew
Get Instant Access
Draft War Room Included Draft War Room Draft War Room Draft War Room Included Draft War Room
Award-Winning Player Rankings Included Award-Winning Player Rankings Award-Winning Player Rankings Award-Winning Player Rankings Included Award-Winning Player Rankings
3D Projections Included 3D Projections 3D Projections 3D Projections Included 3D Projections
Live-Draft Sync Included Live-Draft Sync Live-Draft Sync Live-Draft Sync Included Live-Draft Sync
In-Depth Player Profiles Included In-Depth Player Profiles In-Depth Player Profiles In-Depth Player Profiles Included In-Depth Player Profiles
Mock Draft Tool Included Mock Draft Tool Mock Draft Tool Mock Draft Tool Included Mock Draft Tool
Round-by-Round Draft Strategies Included Round-by-Round Draft Strategies Round-by-Round Draft Strategies Round-by-Round Draft Strategies Included Round-by-Round Draft Strategies
Insider Sleepers & Busts Included Insider Sleepers & Busts Insider Sleepers & Busts Insider Sleepers & Busts Included Insider Sleepers & Busts
Average Draft Position by Scoring Included Average Draft Position by Scoring Average Draft Position by Scoring Average Draft Position by Scoring Included Average Draft Position by Scoring
Scientific Injury Predictor Included Scientific Injury Predictor Scientific Injury Predictor Scientific Injury Predictor Included Scientific Injury Predictor
In-Season Weekly Rankings In-Season Weekly Rankings Included In-Season Weekly Rankings In-Season Weekly Rankings Included In-Season Weekly Rankings
“Who Should I Start?” Tool “Who Should I Start?” Tool Included “Who Should I Start?” Tool “Who Should I Start?” Tool Included “Who Should I Start?” Tool
“Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications Included “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications Included “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications
Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Included Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Included Live-Sync Free Agent Finder
Trade Navigator Trade Navigator Included Trade Navigator Trade Navigator Included Trade Navigator
Player Shares Player Shares Included Player Shares Player Shares Included Player Shares
In-Depth Free Agent Gems In-Depth Free Agent Gems Included In-Depth Free Agent Gems In-Depth Free Agent Gems Included In-Depth Free Agent Gems
Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Included Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Included Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice
Strength-of-Schedule Data Strength-of-Schedule Data Included Strength-of-Schedule Data Strength-of-Schedule Data Included Strength-of-Schedule Data
DFS Lineup Builder DFS Lineup Builder DFS Lineup Builder Included DFS Lineup Builder Included DFS Lineup Builder
DFS Ownership Projections DFS Ownership Projections DFS Ownership Projections Included DFS Ownership Projections Included DFS Ownership Projections
Weekly GPP Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Weekly GPP Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Weekly GPP Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Included Weekly GPP Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Included Weekly GPP Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Weekly Cash Game Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Weekly Cash Game Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Weekly Cash Game Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Included Weekly Cash Game Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Included Weekly Cash Game Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Weekly Top Stacks Weekly Top Stacks Weekly Top Stacks Included Weekly Top Stacks Included Weekly Top Stacks
High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews Included High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews Included High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews
DFS Independent DFS Independent DFS Independent Included DFS Independent Included DFS Independent
Daily Fantasy Advice Daily Fantasy Advice Daily Fantasy Advice Included Daily Fantasy Advice Included Daily Fantasy Advice
Personalized Email Advice Personalized Email Advice Personalized Email Advice Included Personalized Email Advice Included Personalized Email Advice
Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles
Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates
Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates
To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives
All-Access
Draft Sharks App
All–Access Draft Sharks App
Included All-Access
Draft Sharks App
Included All-Access
Draft Sharks App
Included All-Access
Draft Sharks App
Included All-Access
Draft Sharks App
Get Instant Access Get Access Sept. 5th Get Access Sept. 5th Get Instant Access

Turn your phone into a draft weapon with our FREE APP

Download on the App Store Get It on Google Play