Show Navigation
Show Menu
Player Profile

Patrick Mahomes - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Patrick Mahomes
KC

QB KC

#1 Quarterback

460 Projected Points

ADP: 2.3
Bye: 12
Experience: 4 Yr(s)
Age: 25
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 220
40 Time: 4.80

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#1 Quarterback

460 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
2.3 420/632 5246 41 8 298

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

Med Floor

418.6

DS Projection

460

Consensus

38 other sites
427.8

Low Ceiling

510.6

Ceiling Likelihood

Medium
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Mahomes turned in his 3rd straight big season in 2020, throwing for 4,740 yards and 38 TDs.
  • He’s ranked 1st, 6th and 3rd among QBs in fantasy points per game the past 3 years.
  • Mahomes has averaged over 1.5 more fantasy points per game than any other QB during that span. His career 23.7 fantasy points per game are the most all time.
  • Mahomes was healthy throughout the 2020 regular season but sustained a concussion and torn plantar plate (turf toe) in his left foot during the playoffs.
  • He underwent surgery on the foot on February 10.
  • Mahomes has had a setback-free rehab so far and was able to get on the field for May OTAs. He’s expected to be 100% for the start of training camp.
  • Pass protection was a problem for Kansas City last season. Mahomes was pressured on 34% of his dropbacks -- 14th highest in the league and about 6 percentage points higher than 2019.
  • The Chiefs made a bunch of moves to address the offensive line this offseason …
    • Made a trade for OT Orlando Brown, a 24-year-old who’s ranked top 23 in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades in both of the last 2 seasons.
    • Signed G Joe Thuney to a 5-year, $80 million deal. He ranked 3rd among 63 qualifiers in PFF’s 2020 pass-blocking grades.
    • Signed G Kyle Long to a 1-year deal. He’s a 3-time Pro Bowler but is 32 and has played in just 30 games over the past 4 seasons.
    • Signed former Rams C Austin Blythe and drafted C Creed Humphrey in Round 2. Those 2 figure to battle for the starting job this summer.
  • The Chiefs return 6 of last year’s top 7 target leaders: Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams.
  • The lone departure was WR Sammy Watkins, who played in just 34 of 48 games for the Chiefs over the past 3 seasons. The team is hoping for a 3rd-year leap from Hardman and also re-signed WR Byron Pringle and added 5th-round rookie WR Cornell Powell.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Mahomes kept on rolling last year, turning in his 3rd straight top-6 fantasy season. He underwent offseason foot surgery but should be back to 100% well before the start of the 2021 campaign.

With WR Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce back -- plus a revamped and likely much-improved offensive line -- Mahomes is a safe bet for another high-end fantasy finish.

The question, of course, is just how early he’s worth drafting. In standard fantasy leagues, the 4th round feels like a fair price. He’s in the running for the #1 overall pick in 2-QB and superflex setups.

 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes confirmed on Friday that he'll have no restrictions at the start of training camp. That's no surprise after he was a full-go in June workouts, but it's another reminder that last year's toe injury will not be an issue in 2021.

View all Patrick Mahomes Shark Bites »

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes was a full participant in minicamp and doesn't sound at all worried about the left foot injury that required surgery after the Super Bowl. “I don’t see any problems moving forward,” Mahomes said. “Obviously I’m going to continue with the rehab and work to strengthen it. I feel I had good OTAs, a good minicamp. I was able to move around and do the things I needed to do.” Barring a setback, the foot will be a non-issue this season.

View all Patrick Mahomes Shark Bites »

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (toe) is a full participant in OTAs this week, according to HC Andy Reid. “He’s been doing everything,” Reid said of Mahomes, who had turf toe surgery 2 days after the Super Bowl. “He’s been a full go, and he’s still working with [trainer] Rick [Burkholder] with the toe. We utilize this as more of a passing camp. We don’t run the ball much. His toe has really done well.” Mahomes has been setback-free in his rehab and is on track to be at 100% well before Week 1.

View all Patrick Mahomes Shark Bites »

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is "ahead of schedule" in his rehab from February toe surgery and will "do some stuff" in OTAs this coming week, according to NFL Network's James Palmer. Mahomes is on track to be a full-go for the start of training camp. The toe shouldn't be an issue in 2021. Playing behind a revamped (and likely much-improved) offensive line, Mahomes is the favorite to lead all QBs in fantasy points this year.

View all Patrick Mahomes Shark Bites »

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is expected to be ready for training camp after undergoing toe surgery on February 10, GM Brett Veach said. Mahomes has been slapped with a 3-month timeline for recovery, which would put him back at 100% by May. Veach is hoping Mahomes can get on the field for June minicamp (assuming minicamps happen this year). We'll continue to keep a close on the situation, but we're not expecting the toe to be a factor in 2021.

View all Patrick Mahomes Shark Bites »

Turn your phone into a draft weapon with our FREE APP

Download on the App Store Download on Google Play