Patrick Mahomes Fantasy Overview

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Mahomes completed 315 of 502 passes for 3,567 yards with 22 TDs and 11 INTs, adding 422 rushing yards and 5 TDs on 64 carries.

Mahomes finished QB11 in total points over 14 games but QB4 in points per game. That finish fell more in line with early-career Mahomes:

Usage & Role

The per-game average was high, but the underlying passing metrics tell a more complicated story. Among 42 QBs with 150+ attempts, Mahomes posted career lows in:

One clear shift showed up in Mahomes' average depth of target:

After leaning on shorter passes 2021-2024, Mahomes worked further down the field last season. Throwing deeper creates more variance and more incompletions, which also tracks with his completion-rate decline.

The TD rate decline is just as concerning. Mahomes averaged a 6.5% TD rate under Eric Bieniemy from 2018 to 2022, but that number has fallen to 4.5% over the past three seasons. Bieniemy returns in 2026, though the recent drop still points to bigger offensive issues in Kansas City.

Offensive Context

Kansas City's scoring has fallen off since 2022, settling near the middle of the league after spending Mahomes' first five seasons near the top:

Efficiency & Regression

The increase in rushing elevated Mahomes's fantasy scoring in 2025. He derived 22% of his fantasy points from rushing last season, well above his norm:

Mahomes set career highs in nearly every rushing category. He rushed for 422 yards and 6.6 yards per carry. Previously, he had never topped 5.9 yards per carry in a single season. His rushing TDs also spiked up to 5. He only topped 2 rushing TDs once in his career (4 in 2022).

That kind of overall rushing spike usually doesn't last, especially now that Kenneth Walker III gives the Chiefs a much bigger backfield threat.

Injury History & Durability

Mahomes tore his left ACL and LCL in Week 15, putting his 2026 rushing outlook in doubt with Week 1 arriving just nine months later.

Projected Role & Competition

The knee injury is the first issue. Mahomes is expected to play Week 1, but a QB recovering from a significant knee injury presents risk. He might not be 100% early in the season, and any hit to his mobility would likely drag down his rushing.

Mahomes would obviously need to make up for any regression in his rushing production by boosting the passing.

Supporting Cast

The returning pass catchers are familiar, but none comes without questions.

WR Rashee Rice was elite in eight games last season, ranking fifth among WRs in PPR points per game with a 26.5% target share and a league-leading 8.2 yards after the catch per reception.

He has also played just 27 games over the past three seasons because of a suspension, a concussion, and an LCL tear. He heads toward the season having spent 30 offseason days in jail while rehabbing May knee surgery.

WR Xavier Worthy ranked 53rd in PFF receiving grade and 58th in yards per route run, falling well short of expectations for a 2024 first-round pick. This was a step down from Worthy’s rookie year. He’ll require a third year leap in development to show he can be a viable fantasy WR.

TE Travis Kelce heads into his age-37 season and risks a continued trend downward. His 1.47 yards per route run was a career low, and his target share dropped from 22.8% in 2024 to 18.5%.

Walker’s Arrival Could Spell More Rushing

Kenneth Walker's arrival via free agency is the other key variable. Walker averaged 4.6 yards per carry for Seattle in 2025. He finished the season with 417 total yards and 4 TDs in the playoffs en route to becoming Super Bowl MVP. He worked as the Seahawks workhorse RB with 80.24% carry share during the playoffs.

Bringing in a legitimate workhorse back could shift Kansas City toward a more balanced approach, which could reduce Mahomes's pass volume in an offense that ranked seventh in pass attempts.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

Bieniemy is back after serving as the Chiefs' OC from 2018 to 2022. Andy Reid will still call plays, but Reid has credited Bieniemy with making a major offensive impact. Bieniemy typically was in charge of weekly game planning and playbook implementation and should be an improvement over former OC Matt Nagy.

Bieniemy leaned heavily on throwing the ball as the OC. But, he did operate a Chiefs offense in his previous stint with Tyreek Hill as the star WR through 2021 and a struggling run game.

Mahomes finished as a top-6 fantasy QB in every Bieniemy season, and the Chiefs posted a pass rate over 61% each year he was on the staff:

He certainly could help Mahomes get closer to his early production.

Paths To Ceiling

Mahomes has finished six of his eight starting seasons among fantasy’s top 6 scorers in points per game, through changes to the coaching staff and surrounding personnel. Even though 2026 finds the new challenge of returning from a torn ACL, we can’t say Mahomes doesn’t have the potential to return to the top 6.

That said, it’ll be a challenge. The knee repair likely means a downturn in rushing production, which was already likely given last year’s career highs in both rushing yards and rushing TDs. And that means Mahomes will need to make up for it with passing.

Early-career Mahomes found him consistently delivering more than 8.0 yards per pass attempt through a mix of downfield connections and after-catch production. A full, healthy season for Rice will be key, and the QB will need a better version of Worthy than he got last year.

Given those needs, the knee, and Kelce’s advancing age, Mahomes’ realistic ceiling probably lands somewhere in the bottom half of QB1 territory.

Risk Factors

The risk starts with Mahomes' knee. He could miss time or simply be less effective, and the offense has already trended down over the past few years.

A lesser Mahomes plus a lack of rebound for the passing game could leave the QB languishing in QB2 territory.