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Patrick Mahomes - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsPatrick Mahomes's Basic Stats

Patrick Mahomes
ADP: 2.3
Bye: 10
Experience: 6 Yr(s)
Age: 28.0
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 225
40 Time: 4.80
SPARQx (Rank): 99.80 (81%)
Burst Score (Rank): 109.50 (45%)
Agility Score (Rank): 10.96 (95%)
Throw Velocity (Rank): 60.00 (97%)

Patrick Mahomes's Weekly Outlook

Week 4 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
276.7 2.1 0.7 22.6 21
Weekly Writeup
Mahomes? You mean the reigning NFL MVP who ranks fourth among QBs in fantasy points per game (22.1) this year? Oh yeah; that guy. Start him.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
306 2.3 0.7 19.9 23.4

Patrick Mahomes's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#2 Quarterback

374.4 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
2.3 410/612 4896 36.7 11 60 318 2

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsPatrick Mahomes's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Mahomes is arguably the most reliable player in fantasy football. He’s finished as a top-7 QB in fantasy points per game in all five seasons since taking over as Chiefs starter. That includes a second-place finish last year – despite a shaky WR corps.

The WR corps doesn’t look any better heading into 2023. But TE Travis Kelce and RB Jerick McKinnon are back.

And Mahomes is Mahomes.

He doesn’t have quite as much upside as Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts because Mahomes doesn’t offer a ton of rushing production. But he’s a safe bet for another top-5 fantasy season in 2023.


What We Learned Last Year
  • Mahomes led all QBs in total fantasy points last year and ranked second to only Josh Allen in fantasy points per game.
  • Here are Mahomes’ finishes in fantasy points per game since taking over as the Chiefs’ starter in 2018:
    • first
    • seventh
    • fifth
    • third
    • second
  • He’s the only QB to finish top-7 in points per game in each of the last five seasons.
  • Mahomes has posted a completion rate between 65.9% and 67.1% in all five of those seasons.
  • After sinking to a career-low 7.4 yards per attempt in 2021, Mahomes rebounded to 8.1 last year. That ranked second among 33 qualifiers.
  • His 308.8 passing yards per game last year were the second most of his career.
  • Mahomes accomplished that with a subpar WR corps. JuJu Smith-Schuster was the only Chiefs WR to reach 700 receiving yards. No Chiefs WR topped four receiving scores.
  • Mahomes suffered a right high-ankle sprain in the Divisional Round game vs. the Jaguars. He was able to play in the AFC Championship and Super Bowl.


What to Expect in 2023

  • Mahomes admitted in April that his right ankle still wasn’t back to 100%. But he expects it to be by training camp. It shouldn’t be a factor this season.
  • Kansas City’s WR corps remains questionable heading into 2023. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman departed in free agency. The Chiefs added veteran Richie James and rookie Rashee Rice. Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling return from last year’s squad. None of those guys have reached 700 receiving yards in an NFL season.
  • But Travis Kelce is back after another huge season (110-1,338-12).
  • Kansas City also re-signed RB Jerick McKinnon, who ranked third on the team in catches (56), fourth in receiving yards (512), and second in receiving scores (9) last year.
  • OC Eric Bieniemy left Kansas City to take a HC job in Washington. He’ll be replaced by Matt Nagy, who was Kansas City's QBs coach last year and has 11 total seasons working with HC Andy Reid. Don’t expect Bieniemy’s departure to have a tangible impact on the offense.

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Patrick Mahomes, QB KC

12:01pm EDT 9/25/23

Patrick Mahomes' ankle "all good"

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes' ankle is "all good," NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reports. Mahomes got rolled up on near the end of the first half of Sunday's blowout win over the Bears. But he stayed in the game, only exiting in the third quarter after the Chiefs went up 41-0. Mahomes should be fine for Sunday night's game vs. the Jets.

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Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes completed 24 of 33 attempts for 272 yards with 3 TD in Week 3’s dominant win vs. the Bears. He also added 28 rushing yards on 3 carries in the contest. This game was already out of hand by halftime, so Mahomes was pulled before the end of regulation. Still, he posted enough production for fantasy managers to be happy. He’ll look to continue his MVP-level play in Week 4 vs. the Jets.

View all Patrick Mahomes Shark Bites »

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes was pulled in the third quarter of Sunday's game vs. the Bears, with his team holding a 41-0 lead. Mahomes racked up 272 yards and three TDs on 24-of-33 passing. He tweaked his ankle near the end of the first half but didn't miss any snaps. We'll keep an eye on that situation this coming week, but Mahomes should be fine for Week 4's meeting with the Jets.

View all Patrick Mahomes Shark Bites »

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes conceded that the right ankle he injured in the Divisional Round of the playoffs still isn't back to 100%. “Now, it’s been more about just kind of managing it, but getting the mobility back as best I possibly can,” Mahomes explained. “I wouldn’t say I’m 100%, but I’ve had no, necessarily, limitations. When you go through the grind of the week of training, you’re trying to push it and go through the rehab process, but at the same time, you want to make sure you’re still building. You might be a little sore on the weekends, but I think we’ve done a great job of pushing it to the right limit to where now I’m throwing and stuff like that and having no limitations there. Running and cutting, there will still be a few limitations going for the next few weeks.” Mahomes added that he expects to be at 100% come training camp. We'll continue to keep an eye on the situation, but the ankle is not impacting our 2023 projections for Mahomes.

View all Patrick Mahomes Shark Bites »

The Chiefs promoted Matt Nagy to OC. Nagy spent this past year as Kansas City's QBs coach and has 11 total seasons working with HC Andy Reid under his belt. That includes serving as the Chiefs' OC back in 2017, when the team finished top 6 in both points and total yards with QB Alex Smith. We're not expecting a notable change to Kansas City's offense with Nagy replacing Eric Bieniemy.

View all Patrick Mahomes Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Patrick Mahomes, QB KC
Dynasty MVP 347.4
Position Rank #2 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
1,063
1,744
3,387
Dynasty Write-up
Mahomes finished as a top-three fantasy passer in 2022, despite losing WR Tyreek Hill. TE Travis Kelce turns 34 next season, and history says the cliff is near. Still, it’s tough to really knock a rare talent like Mahomes. He's only 28 years old.
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