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Patrick Mahomes - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsPatrick Mahomes's Basic Stats

Patrick Mahomes
ADP: 3.7
Bye: 8
Experience: 5 Yr(s)
Age: 26.8
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 230
40 Time: 4.80
SPARQx (Rank): 99.80 (81%)
Burst Score (Rank): 109.50 (45%)
Agility Score (Rank): 10.96 (95%)
Throw Velocity (Rank): 60.00 (97%)

Patrick Mahomes's 2022 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#5 Quarterback

365.2 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
3.7 416/640 4882 35.4 12.2 68 346.8 3.1

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsPatrick Mahomes's Preseason Player Analysis

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What You Need to Know:
  • Mahomes racked up 4,839 passing yards and 37 TDs last season. Both marks ranked 4th league-wide.
  • He completed 66.3% of his passes – his 4th straight season with a completion rate between 65.9% and 66.3%.
  • Mahomes’ 7.4 yards per attempt last year was easily a career low. It ranked 13th among 33 qualifiers.
  • Defenses keyed on Kansas City’s deep passing game. As a result …
    • Mahomes’ 7.6-yard average depth of throw was a career low and ranked 30th among 36 qualifiers.
    • Just 9.7% of his passes traveled 20+ yards downfield – also a career low and 29th among those 36 qualifiers.
  • Mahomes was still excellent when he threw deep.
    • His 47.4% completion rate on passes of 20+ yards ranked 4th.
    • He ranked 8th in Pro Football Focus’ deep passing grades.
  • Mahomes finished 4th among QBs in both total fantasy points and fantasy points per game.
    • His 12 top-12 scoring weeks tied Justin Herbert for most among QBs.
    • Mahomes scored as a top-5 QB 5 times – tied for 6th most.
  • His finishes in fantasy points per game in his first 3 seasons as Kansas City’s starter:
    • 2018 - 1st
    • 2019 - 6th
    • 2020 - 3rd
  • The Chiefs traded WR Tyreek Hill to Miami in March.
  • Here’s the percentage of Mahomes’ passing fantasy points Hill accounted for in each of the last 4 seasons:
    • 2018 - 27.5%
    • 2019 - 18.7%
    • 2020 - 32.3%
    • 2021 - 26.0%
  • The Chiefs also lost WRs Byron Pringle and Demarcus Robinson this offseason. Those 2 combined for 15.0% of the Chiefs’ targets, 15.0% of the receptions, 16.9% of the receiving yards and 21.6% of the receiving scores last year.
  • The Chiefs made 3 big additions at WR this offseason:
    • JuJu Smith-Schuster signed a 1-year, $3.25 million deal. A shoulder injury limited him to just 5 games last season, and he underwhelmed the previous 2 years. But Smith-Schuster posted 58-917-7 and 111-1,426-7 lines in his first 2 NFL campaigns and is still only 25.
    • Marquez Valdes-Scantling inked a 3-year, $30 million deal. He boasts 4.3 speed and averaged 17.5 yards per catch in Green Bay over the last 4 seasons.
    • Skyy Moore arrived in Round 2 of the NFL Draft. The Western Michigan is coming off a big 95-1,292-10 line in 2021, finishing 3rd in Pro Football Focus’ receiving grades.
  • TE Travis Kelce, WR Mecole Hardman and RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire also return for the Chiefs.
  • The 2021 Chiefs ranked 6th in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades and 4th in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Sack Rate. They return all 5 starters for 2022.
Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Mahomes ranked 4th among QBs in fantasy points last year – following 1st, 6th and 3rd-place finishes the previous 3 seasons.

The big story heading into 2022, of course, is the departure of WR Tyreek Hill, who’s accounted for about a quarter of Mahomes’ passing fantasy points over the last 4 years.

The Chiefs added WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore and return TE Travis Kelce, WR Mecole Hardman and RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, so there’s still plenty to work with here. Mahomes will operate behind a strong offensive line.

His elite skill set keeps his fantasy floor high. But the loss of Hill undoubtedly lowers Mahomes’ fantasy ceiling. There’s a good chance he goes too early in your fantasy draft this year.

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Patrick Mahomes, QB KC

10:15am EDT 3/29/22

Chiefs seeking 'top' receiver?

ESPN's Dianna Russini reports that the Chiefs are "calling teams" trying to trade for a "top receiver." We could speculate on whom that might mean, but who would have ever guess that this offseason would include Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill being traded. For now, it's just a signal that we shouldn't get too comfy with the idea of either JuJu Smith-Schuster or Marquez Valdes-Scantling leading Kansas City in targets this season. Keep this possibility in mind as you decide where to value the recently signed wideouts in current best-ball drafting.

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Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes cleared concussion protocol, HC Andy Reid said after Sunday's loss to the Titans. We'll keep an eye on Mahomes this coming week, but it looks like he'll be available for next Monday night's game vs. the Giants.

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Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes took a knee to the head as he was falling to the ground in the 4th quarter of Sunday's game vs. Tennessee. He was noticeably woozy as he was helped off the field. Mahomes will certainly be checked for a concussion. We'll update his status when we know more.

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Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes confirmed on Friday that he'll have no restrictions at the start of training camp. That's no surprise after he was a full-go in June workouts, but it's another reminder that last year's toe injury will not be an issue in 2021.

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Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes was a full participant in minicamp and doesn't sound at all worried about the left foot injury that required surgery after the Super Bowl. “I don’t see any problems moving forward,” Mahomes said. “Obviously I’m going to continue with the rehab and work to strengthen it. I feel I had good OTAs, a good minicamp. I was able to move around and do the things I needed to do.” Barring a setback, the foot will be a non-issue this season.

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Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Patrick Mahomes, QB KC
Dynasty MVP 352.1
Position Rank #7 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
1,085
1,783
3,380
Dynasty Write-up
Mahomes’ fantasy floor dipped in 2021, a year that saw him post a career-high 13 INTs. Yet he finished as a top-4 fantasy passer for the 3rd time over the past 4 seasons. He’s signed through the 2031 season but is now without WR Tyreek Hill. New WR JuJu Smith-Schuster is signed only for 2022. The draft brought promising WR Skyy Moore.

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