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Patrick Mahomes - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Patrick Mahomes
KC

QB KC

#1 Quarterback

456 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 12
Experience: 4 Yr(s)
Age: 26
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 220
40 Time: 4.80

Weekly Outlook

3d Projection

Med Floor

21.5

DS Projection

29

Consensus

38 other sites
25

Low Ceiling

31.3

Rest of
Season

Week 21 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
327.2 2.4 0.7 31 29
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Week 13
Mahomes completed 15 of 29 passes for 184 yards and 1 INT in Sunday’s win over the Broncos. He added 4 carries for 12 yards and 1 TD.
Mahomes barely completed 50% of his passes as the Chiefs offense struggled mightily with drops and possessed the ball for only 26 minutes.
Mahomes has struggled to find his upside of late with 1 or fewer TDs in 5 of his last 6 games. In 5 out of these 6 games he didn’t eclipse 15 fantasy points, but in the other game he threw for over 400 yards and 5 TDs against the Raiders.
Mahomes and the Chiefs take on the Raiders again in Week 14 where he will look to replicate the success he had against them in their first meeting.
Week 11
Even though Mahomes had just his 2nd game this season and the 5th in his 5 seasons without a TD pass, against Dallas he guided Kansas City to its 4th consecutive win. He completed 23 of 37 passes for 260 yards, with 1 INT. He also lost a fumble on 1 of his 7 carries for 11 yards (consisting of an 11-yard scramble to set up the game’s 1st TD, and 6 other attempts that netted 0 yards). He converted just 4 of 12 3rd downs.
The Chiefs have this week off to prepare for home games against division opponents Denver and Las Vegas. Both teams are among the NFL’s top 6 in fewest passing yards allowed and could be trying to stay in contention in the AFC West. Mahomes has been picked off 11 times this season, the most since the 12 in 2018, his 1st season as KC’s regular starting QB. However, the Broncos and Raiders combined have just 12 INTs. The 20 sacks against Mahomes are in the middle of the pack of starting QBs.
Week 10
The Chiefs looked like a completely different team on Sunday Night Football against the Raiders. Mahomes was able to take his normal drop back and get the ball out quickly on most pass plays. This resulted in a high efficiency and huge yardage output night for Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. Mahomes spread the ball around and found 8 different receivers on the night. He looked comfortable throughout the game and was able to do whatever he wanted against this Raiders secondary. He finished the night 35 of 50 for 406 yards, 5 TDs and 0 INTs.
This was Mahomes’ first game over 400 yards this season and 2nd game with 5 passing TDs. It’s safe to say that Mahomes and the Chiefs offense has found its rhythm. We have him ranked as our QB3 this week against the Cowboys. The Cowboys’ defense has held their last 3 opponents to fewer than 250 passing yards and 2 total passing TDs over that span. The next 3 weeks on the schedule for the Chiefs include DAL, BYE and DEN. He is our QB3 the rest of the way.
Week 9
In what was already an underwhelming season, Mahomes played his worst game of the season on Sunday. He went 20 of 37 for just 166 yards with 1 TD. This was the first time he had less than 200 yards passing since Week 17 of the 2019 season.

Obviously not having Aaron Rodgers on the other side to push Mahomes was less than ideal, but the lack of TD production is becoming a trend. He has 1 or fewer TDs in 3 straight games. A stretch he hasn't pulled off since December of the 2019 season.

He didn't make things any better with his rushing yardage, totaling -2 yards on his 2 carries. After going 5 straight weeks with 25 or more rushing yards, his production has really fallen off. He has 8 total yards over the last 2 games.

Going forward, things should get better for a QB who has shown the dominance Mahomes has over the past 2+ seasons. The recent form is concerning, but this is still an offense with Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill leading the way. Two games with the Raiders over the next 3 weeks should help Mahomes find the early-season form.
Week 8
Mahomes threw for 275 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT in the Week 8 comeback win over the Giants on Monday night. He connected on 29 of his 48 pass attempts with just 6 receivers catching a ball on the night.

The INT wasn’t really his fault as the ball bounced off a teammate’s helmet and into the air in the end zone. But he quickly made up for it on the next drive by finding WR Tyreek Hill in the back of the end zone.

The Giants frustrated Mahomes all night as they sat back in 2-deep sets and double-teamed Kelce while forcing Mahomes to check down. Mahomes made the most of it. He really had things going with WRs Hill and Mecole Hardman—while checking down to RB Darrel Williams often—but struggled to get TE Travis Kelce going.
Week 7
Mahomes completed 20 of 35 passes for 206 scoreless yards and 1 INT in the Chiefs' Week 7 loss to the Titans before exiting in the fourth quarter after taking a big hit. He also added 35 rushing yards.
It was by far Mahomes’ worst game of the season as the Chiefs’ turnover woes continued. This time Mahomes and the Chiefs couldn’t even find the end zone.
The Chiefs offense hasn’t been the problem this season, with Mahomes leading the league in TD passes coming in to Week 7. But they were egregiously bad in this game, with 3 turnovers and only 3 points against a bad Titans defense.
The Chiefs simply couldn’t get anything going as Mahomes was sacked 4 times, throwing 1 INT and losing a fumble on a rushing play.
The Chiefs have a get-right spot in Week 8 at home against the Giants. Mahomes remains an easy top 5 play at his position.
Week 6
Mahomes’ Week 6 started off rocky. He watched Tyreek Hill bobble a well-thrown ball that was picked off. Later in the 1st, and approaching the red zone, Mahomes bobbled a snap and chucked a lame duck that was easily picked. He settled down to finish with 397 yards and two 2nd half TDs against a bottom-barrel Washington pass D. Not much changes going forward for Mahomes, who’s fantasy’s overall QB1 on the strength of a league-high 18 passing scores. Next up is an excellent matchup with Tennessee’s banged up secondary.
Week 5
Mahomes completed 33 of 54 passes for 272 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs in the Chiefs' Week 5 loss to the Bills. He added 8 carries for 61 yards.
Mahomes had been phenomenal all season long until this game which was by far his worst of the year.
Mahomes made a few questionable decisions that led to turnovers and struggled with efficiency against the Bills’ cover 2 defense. He had 21 incompletions.
The Chiefs had a few drops which didn’t help Mahomes, but he had another costly red-zone turnover as they were trying to mount a comeback.
Mahomes is a top 3 QB play every week and should bounce right back in Week 6 against the Washington defense.
Week 4
Mahomes is awesome. Obviously. But he also got a little lucky this week. Two of his 5 TD passes against the Eagles came on short-range shovel passes: first to Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and then to TE Joe Fortson.

The other 3 went to Tyreek Hill, who bounced back from a couple of down volume weeks for an 11-186-3 receiving line on 12 targets. Not much luck involved there (other than being fortunate to have a WR with Hill’s talent).

It’s worth noting that Mahomes now sits on a 9.9% TD rate this season, higher even than the 8.6% rate he led the league with in his breakout 50-TD campaign. That leaves room for regression.

Of course, that’s no cause for concern. Just a reminder that he’s not a lock to stay on top of the QB rankings.
Week 2
Another solid night from a fantasy perspective for the Chiefs signal caller. His night was moving along nicely until he threw an untimely interception late in the 3rd quarter that sparked the Ravens comeback.

Mahomes was spreading around the love in this game, hitting 9 different pass catchers. Mahomes did have three 33+ yard touchdowns to Demarcus Robinson, Byron Pringle and Travis Kelce and finished the game 24 of 31 for 343 yards.

There isn’t much to say about this guy, he is an elite QB in fantasy football and real football. He puts up massive numbers in the passing game every week with his two elite weapons in Kelce and Tyreek Hill. If you have him, you’re starting him every single week regardless of the matchup.

We have Mahomes at QB2 this week against a beat-up Chargers defense. Mahomes will continue to put up big fantasy performances in this explosive offense. We have him ranked at QB2 the rest of the season.
Week 1
Mahomes completed 27 of 36 passes for 337 yards and 3 TDs in Kansas City's 33-29 Week 1 win over the Browns. He added 5 rushes for 18 yards and another TD.
The Chiefs fell behind early as the Browns scored TDs on their first 2 drives while Mahomes and the Chiefs only mustered up a FG on their first drive.
Mahomes ran in a TD on the Chiefs 2nd drive to cut the deficit to 15-10, but then the Browns scored another TD before the half to go up 22-10.
The 2nd half was a different story as Mahomes connected on 3 passing TDs, with 2 of them going to Travis Kelce and the other a 75-yard bomb to Tyreek Hill.
Mahomes looked like the MVP again, completing 75% of his passes and accounting for 4 TDs against a competent Browns defense. He should be locked in as a top 3 fantasy QB no matter the matchup. The Chiefs head to Baltimore in Week 2 to take on the Ravens.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Mahomes turned in his 3rd straight big season in 2020, throwing for 4,740 yards and 38 TDs.
  • He’s ranked 1st, 6th and 3rd among QBs in fantasy points per game the past 3 years.
  • Mahomes has averaged over 1.5 more fantasy points per game than any other QB during that span. His career 23.7 fantasy points per game are the most all time.
  • Mahomes was healthy throughout the 2020 regular season but sustained a concussion and torn plantar plate (turf toe) in his left foot during the playoffs.
  • He underwent surgery on the foot on February 10.
  • Mahomes has had a setback-free rehab so far and was able to get on the field for May OTAs. He’s expected to be 100% for the start of training camp.
  • Pass protection was a problem for Kansas City last season. Mahomes was pressured on 34% of his dropbacks -- 14th highest in the league and about 6 percentage points higher than 2019.
  • The Chiefs made a bunch of moves to address the offensive line this offseason …
    • Made a trade for OT Orlando Brown, a 24-year-old who’s ranked top 23 in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades in both of the last 2 seasons.
    • Signed G Joe Thuney to a 5-year, $80 million deal. He ranked 3rd among 63 qualifiers in PFF’s 2020 pass-blocking grades.
    • Signed G Kyle Long to a 1-year deal. He’s a 3-time Pro Bowler but is 32 and has played in just 30 games over the past 4 seasons.
    • Signed former Rams C Austin Blythe and drafted C Creed Humphrey in Round 2. Those 2 figure to battle for the starting job this summer.
  • The Chiefs return 6 of last year’s top 7 target leaders: Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams.
  • The lone departure was WR Sammy Watkins, who played in just 34 of 48 games for the Chiefs over the past 3 seasons. The team is hoping for a 3rd-year leap from Hardman and also re-signed WR Byron Pringle and added 5th-round rookie WR Cornell Powell.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Mahomes kept on rolling last year, turning in his 3rd straight top-6 fantasy season. He underwent offseason foot surgery but should be back to 100% well before the start of the 2021 campaign.

With WR Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce back -- plus a revamped and likely much-improved offensive line -- Mahomes is a safe bet for another high-end fantasy finish.

The question, of course, is just how early he’s worth drafting. In standard fantasy leagues, the 4th round feels like a fair price. He’s in the running for the #1 overall pick in 2-QB and superflex setups.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes cleared concussion protocol, HC Andy Reid said after Sunday's loss to the Titans. We'll keep an eye on Mahomes this coming week, but it looks like he'll be available for next Monday night's game vs. the Giants.

View all Patrick Mahomes Shark Bites »

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes took a knee to the head as he was falling to the ground in the 4th quarter of Sunday's game vs. Tennessee. He was noticeably woozy as he was helped off the field. Mahomes will certainly be checked for a concussion. We'll update his status when we know more.

View all Patrick Mahomes Shark Bites »

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes confirmed on Friday that he'll have no restrictions at the start of training camp. That's no surprise after he was a full-go in June workouts, but it's another reminder that last year's toe injury will not be an issue in 2021.

View all Patrick Mahomes Shark Bites »

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes was a full participant in minicamp and doesn't sound at all worried about the left foot injury that required surgery after the Super Bowl. “I don’t see any problems moving forward,” Mahomes said. “Obviously I’m going to continue with the rehab and work to strengthen it. I feel I had good OTAs, a good minicamp. I was able to move around and do the things I needed to do.” Barring a setback, the foot will be a non-issue this season.

View all Patrick Mahomes Shark Bites »

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (toe) is a full participant in OTAs this week, according to HC Andy Reid. “He’s been doing everything,” Reid said of Mahomes, who had turf toe surgery 2 days after the Super Bowl. “He’s been a full go, and he’s still working with [trainer] Rick [Burkholder] with the toe. We utilize this as more of a passing camp. We don’t run the ball much. His toe has really done well.” Mahomes has been setback-free in his rehab and is on track to be at 100% well before Week 1.

View all Patrick Mahomes Shark Bites »

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