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Adonai Mitchell - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsAdonai Mitchell's Basic Stats

Draft Sharks
ADP: 14.8
Bye: 14
Experience: 0
Age: 21.7
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 205
40 Time: 4.34
Burst Score (Rank): 135.20 (96%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.29 (92%)

Adonai Mitchell's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
2.7 38.4 0.22 5
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Adonai Mitchell's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#69 Wide Receiver

126.1 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
14.8 43.3 615.8 3.53 0 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsAdonai Mitchell's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »

Bottom Line

Viewed as a potential first-round pick, Mitchell surprisingly fell to the mid-second round as the 11th WR off the board.

He has the potential to replace Alec Pierce (who was on the field for 95% of snaps last year) and at least be on the field enough to have a few big plays.

His upside as a 99th-percentile athlete is intriguing as an end-of-roster dart throw.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Mitchell was selected by the Colts with the 52nd overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft.
  • He played two years at Georgia and his final year at Texas.
  • Mitchell posted career-best numbers at Texas:
    • 86 targets
    • 55 catches
    • 845 receiving yards
    • 11 receiving TDs
  • Mitchell’s breakout age at 20.9 is 38th percentile among drafted WRs.
  • He was near the top of the leaderboards in the Big 12:
    • 12th in yards per game (60.4)
    • 15th in receptions per game (3.9)
    • 16th in yards per catch (15.36)
  • Mitchell was named Big 12 Offensive Newcomer of the Year and second-team All-Big 12.
  • He measured in at 6'1, 205 pounds at the NFL Combine and registered an outstanding 4.34 40-yard time.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Mitchell enters his first season with the Colts under HC and play-caller Shane Steichen and OC Jim Bob Cooter.
  • The Colts are expected to perform similarly to last season. They are tied for the second-highest win total in the AFC South at 8.5 wins on most sportsbooks.
  • They sit 20th in terms of highest Super Bowl odds at +6000 on most sportsbooks, third highest in the division.
  • Mitchell enters his first season at 21 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with Mitchell’s profile will produce at 80% of his peak value at age-21.
  • No. 1 WR Michael Pittman and slot receiver Josh Downs are likely locked into their roles. That leaves Mitchell to battle with Alec Pierce for the other outside WR spot.
    • Among 80 WRs with 50+ targets last year, Pierce ranked 76th in both yards per route run and Pro Football Focus receiving grade.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Adonai Mitchell, WR IND

8:41pm EDT 4/26/24

Adonai Mitchell heads to Indy

The Colts selected Texas WR Adonai Mitchell in Round 2 of the NFL Draft. The 6’2, 205-pounder registered a 4.34-second 40 time and 39.5-inch vertical at the Combine. It earned him a 9.99 Relative Athletic Score that ranks 5th out of 3,402 WRs from 1987 to 2024. Mitchell’s college production never matched that size-athleticism combo, though. He totaled just 38 catches in 21 games for Georgia across 2021 and 2022, with a left high-ankle sprain ruining his sophomore season. Mitchell transferred to Texas this past year and set career highs with 55 catches, 845 yards, and 11 TDs. But he ranked a distant second to WR Xavier Worthy in catches and yards and underwhelmed in advanced metrics. Among 286 WRs with 50+ targets last year, Mitchell ranked just 98th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade and 179th in yards per route. His raw athleticism shows up on deep balls and contested catches, but the tape also shows below-average play strength and inconsistent effort. The ceiling here is undoubtedly high if everything clicks. But the floor is also scary-low. We’ve seen plenty of big, hyper-athletic WRs bust. Per NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, Mitchell also didn’t interview well in the pre-draft process. With the Colts, he’ll enter training camp as the favorite to play on the outside over Alec Pierce. Even if he wins that role, Mitchell will profile as a volatile best ball pick.

View all Adonai Mitchell Shark Bites »

Texas WR Xavier Worthy stole the headlines with his 4.21-second 40-yard dash at the Combine on Saturday. But teammate Adonai Mitchell had the more impressive overall workout. The junior wideout earned a 9.98 Relative Athletic Score, a composite measurement of athleticism that factors in all the Combine tests and player size. It's the eighth-highest RAS score among 3,063 WRs from 1987 to 2024. Mitchell checked into Indianapolis at 6'2, 205 pounds and then registered a 4.34-second 40-yard dash, a 39.5-inch vertical, and a 136-inch broad jump. Considered a potential first-round pick prior to that showing, Mitchell now seems like a good bet to hear his name called on the first night of April's draft. His dynasty stock is ascending.

View all Adonai Mitchell Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Adonai Mitchell, WR IND
Dynasty MVP 68.4
Position Rank #129 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
194
352
700
Dynasty Write-up
Credit Mitchell for tallying 29-426-4 as a true freshman at Georgia (2021). After a quiet 2022, Mitchell transferred to Texas in 2023 to live close to family. What followed: A strong 55-845-11 line amid a loaded WR corps. Mitchell brings plus size and advanced route-running – ingredients for red-zone success with the Colts. Still, his overall profile screams boom/bust.
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