AJ Barner Fantasy Overview

Six TDs Carried the Fantasy Line

Barner took a sizable leap in his second NFL season, finishing with career-best marks across the board:

• 68 targets
• 52 catches
• 519 receiving yards
• 6 TDs

He finished as the TE14 in PPR scoring and became Seattle’s lead TE on a 78% snap share. Compare that with his rookie-year numbers:

• 38 targets
• 30 catches
• 245 yards
• 4 TDs
• 45.5% snap share

Barner benefited from spike weeks, primarily powered by those TDs. He posted six top-12 finishes but closed just one other week higher than 20th (TE17 in Week 6). Seven other weeks found Barner ranking 27th or worse.

That’s how it goes when you exceed 3 receptions on just four occasions, with a mere two of those climbing past 4 catches. One of Barner’s top-12 weeks even required a 1-yard rushing TD.

The TD Dependence Is Hard to Ignore

TD points accounted for 24.4% of Barner’s PPR total. That ranked 12th-highest among the top 50 scorers at the position. Among the top 20 fantasy TEs, only four leaned more heavily on TD points.

Barner also had to block on 16.8% of his pass snaps. That ranked fifth-highest among 49 TEs who drew at least 30 targets last season. That’s especially damaging to a guy already playing in a low-volume pass offense (29th in pass attempts).

Run-Heavy Didn’t Kill the Role

Seattle transitioned into a run-leaning offense under OC Klint Kubiak in 2025. The Seahawks ranked:

• third in rushing attempts
• 23rd in neutral pass rate
• 26th in pace of play

Seattle used two-TE personnel on 29.9% of offensive snaps last season, the league’s eighth-highest rate. But Barner was the only fantasy-relevant TE. He led the group with a 13.3% target share.

Rookie Elijah Arroyo played the second most snaps at the position, living in the range of 37% to 47% playing time through Week 13 before a knee injury ended his regular season in Week 14.

Through Week 13, Arroyo ran 153 pass routes to Barner’s 235 and drew 25 targets to Barner’s 46.

The Health Profile Is Quietly Clean

Barner has played in all 37 of his career games, including last year’s playoff run. He was also durable in college, missing just two games in 2022 at Indiana with a foot injury before playing all 15 games at Michigan in 2023.

Barner Should Lead … But There’s a Challenger

The Seahawks lost OC Klint Kubiak to the Las Vegas head job. They replaced him with Brian Fleury, who spent the past seven years in San Francisco under Kyle Shanahan. That included working with Kubiak on the 2023 offensive staff.

Seattle has indicated that scheme continuity played a key role in Fleury’s hiring, so we should expect plenty more running and two-TE sets. But does that mean we should assume the same role and usage for Barner?

The 24-year-old certainly enters the year as the favorite to lead Seahawks TEs in playing time and targets once again. But he could easily cede some receiving work to Arroyo.

Second-Year Teammate Could be a Problem

Here’s what HC Mike Macdonald said about Arroyo after the team drafted him last April: “Elijah Arroyo can run an extensive route tree. He can split out wide and do ‘X’ receiver-type things. Bigger body, provides a ton of value. And then he’s gonna go in there as an actual inline TE and create some of those bigger personnel formations. That’s the vision we have for him.”

GM John Schneider added, “If he didn’t miss time [because of a college ACL tear], his talent is like a top 15 pick. This guy is special.”

That sure sounds like a player the Seahawks would like to involve more. And although Arroyo can move around the formation, any increase in playing time for him would likely impact Barner’s at least a bit.

Paths To Ceiling

The best case for Barner is that he holds off Arroyo for the position’s clear lead in playing time and opportunities. He’s not likely to see a target spike, though, without an injury to WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Seattle also re-signed WR Rashid Shaheed for $17 million a year this offseason.

The team could also be forced to pass a good bit more this season. The backfield lost Kenneth Walker III gone, and Zach Charbonnet’s working back from February ACL surgery. Last year’s combo of ranking third in scoring and first in fewest points allowed will also be difficult to repeat, thus giving way to potentially more trailing game scripts.

Still, those extra targets would likely spread around more than generate a volume spike for even the No. 1 TE. Barner looks like a continued TD-or-bust bet, which can deliver big weeks but also prove hard to trust in weekly fantasy lineups. He’s best suited for non-PPR use.

Risk Factors

Arroyo’s potential ascension is the biggest risk, beyond the low-volume issues Barner already dealt with last year. A larger role for Shaheed could also leave a smaller target share for Seattle TEs overall.

The position could also siphon some share from the depleted backfield, though, especially when you consider the limited college receiving experience for first-round RB Jadarian Price (15 career catches).