Bottom Line

The biggest question facing Richardson is when he’ll take over. Historically, that usually comes in the first half of Year 1. We’ll be watching all summer for Richardson’s timeline, but he split first-team reps with Gardner Minshew right away.

Richardson is already being drafted at the bottom of QB1 range. That could be problematic if he goes half the season without starting. But his combo of rushing and deep passing will make him worth considering across formats – even with the risk.

There could be a Cam Newton ceiling here.

What We Learned Last Year

• Richardson is a freakish athlete, and that manifested in his 2022 rushing production. Only three FBS QBs averaged more yards per tote last season, among 52 with at least 50 rushing attempts.
• Richardson ran even more efficiently in 2021, averaging 8.3 yards per attempt compared with last year’s 7.4 (excluding yards lost on sacks).
• He followed that up with unfair numbers at the Scouting Combine:
  • 98th percentile 40 time among QBs
  • 99th percentile vertical and broad jump
  • All at 96th percentile weight
• Richardson completed just 53.8% of his passes in his lone starting campaign at Florida.
  • Among 128 FBS QBs with 200+ dropbacks, Richardson ranked 121st in that category. He also ranked:
    • 120th in adjusted completion rate
    • 96th in passer rating
    • T-65th in Pro Football Focus passing grade
• He fared much better as a deep passer. Among 148 QBs with 20+ deep attempts (20+ yards downfield), Richardson ranked:
  • 25th in total deep attempts
  • 20th in deep-passing grade
  • 16th in deep-passing yards

What to Expect in 2023

• We know Richardson is big and can run. That will be key to his fantasy outlook whenever he gets onto the field.
• There have been seven rookie-QB seasons in NFL history that would have ranked among last year’s top 12 in fantasy points per game at the position. All of those included at least 15.6 rushing yards per game (265 yards over a 17-game season).
  • The median for that group has been 34.0 rushing yards per game.
• All seven have also included at least 213.3 passing yards per game, with a median of 234.8 yards per game and 7.8 yards per pass.
• Richardson clearly has more to prove on the passing front than rushing. But he figures to deliver rushing production well above the median. That would allow for more fantasy production on a lower passing floor.
• And that deep-passing upside will help.
  • WR Alec Pierce matches up well, with his 11.7-yard rookie-year aDOT.
  • WR Michael Pittman saw his aDOT fall to 6.9 last year but checked in at 9.8 in 2021. And he posted a 12.8 career aDOT in college.
  • TE Jelani Woods also sports downfield ability. He posted an 88th-percentile 40 time among TEs at the Scouting Combine – at 6’7.