Bo Nix Fantasy Overview

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Nix started all 17 games for Denver last year. He averaged:

• 231.2 passing yards
• 1.5 passing TDs
• 20.9 rushing yards
• 0.3 rushing TDs

Nix finished 11th among QBs in fantasy points per game and 11th in expected fantasy points per game. He posted five top-12 weekly finishes.

Usage & Role

Denver leaned heavily on Nix in his second NFL season. His 612 pass attempts led the league, while his 680 dropbacks and 719 passing snaps also ranked first among QBs.

Nix added important fantasy value with his legs. He tied for fifth among QBs with 83 carries and 5 rushing TDs. He also ranked 11th in rushing yards and eighth in scramble yards.

The Broncos ranked third in plays per game and ninth in pass rate, giving Nix one of the NFL’s best fantasy environments from a volume perspective.

Efficiency & Regression

Nix’s efficiency profile remains the biggest concern in his fantasy outlook.

Among 42 QBs with 300+ dropbacks, he ranked:

• 26th in completion rate
• 32nd in yards per attempt
• 30th in completion rate over expected
• 29th in passer rating

Nix’s 6.4 yards per attempt ranked dead last among qualified starters.

There were still a few encouraging signs beneath the surface: Nix ranked 15th in PFF passing grade and 12th in big-time throw rate while Broncos pass catchers dropped 37 passes, second-most in the league.

Nix also kept excelling at avoiding sacks. His 3.76% sack rate through two seasons ranks 11th-lowest all-time among QBs with 500+ career pass attempts.

The YPA was ugly, but these markers say he can rebound. That keeps top-10 QB weeks on the table.

Offensive Context

Sean Payton’s offense continued trending more pass-heavy in 2025.

Denver ranked ninth in pass rate and 10th in pass rate over expected. The Broncos also played fast, finishing third in plays per game and 13th in pace.

The offense still lacked explosive efficiency, though. Denver ranked 25th in yards per pass attempt and just 13th in passing TDs per game.

That offense leaned on quick throws and underneath concepts, leaving Nix just 25th among qualified QBs in average depth of target.

Injury History & Durability

Nix enters 2026 with injury concern.

On the second-to-last play of the Broncos’ playoff game against the Bills, Nix fractured his right ankle. He had surgery in January as well as a cleanup procedure in April.

He should be ready for the season, but the injury could limit his availability early in training camp.

Supporting Cast

Courtland Sutton returns to the Broncos as an outside WR. Sutton remains Nix’s top target after another productive season. Sutton caught 74 balls for 1,017 yards and 7 TDs on 125 targets last year. He ranked 11th among WRs in targets and 12th in receiving yards.

The Broncos also traded a first-round pick and a third-round pick to acquire Jaylen Waddle from the Dolphins.

Waddle gives Denver another playmaker after finishing 2025 with 64 catches, 910 yards, 6 TDs, and the 12th-best PFF receiving grade among WRs.

They also return young WR depth in Troy Franklin, Marvin Mims, and Pat Bryant.

TE Evan Engram gives Nix a reliable underneath option after drawing 77 targets last year, ranking first among TEs in separation, and finishing fifth in catches.

The Broncos re-signed J.K. Dobbins ($8 million a year) and drafted Jonah Coleman in Round 4 to go with RJ Harvey in the backfield.

Denver targeted RBs on 20.3% of pass attempts last year, the fourth-highest rate in the league. Harvey ranked eighth among RBs in catches and receiving yards.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

Payton has gradually shifted the Broncos toward a faster, pass-leaning offense over the last three seasons:

	Plays	Pace	Pass Rate	Neutral Pass Rate	Pass Rate Over Expected
2023	59.8	29th	55.6%	55.9%	-1.1%
2024	62.1	15th	56.3%	58.0%	+3.3%
2025	64.2	13th	58.2%	58.2%	+5.5%

Even with Dobbins healthy through the first 10 weeks, Denver still leaned pass:

• 57.2% pass rate
• 57.6% neutral pass rate
• +4.0% pass rate over expected

Payton’s history suggests Denver could continue trending further toward the pass and a faster pace in 2026.

Paths To Ceiling

Nix already checks one of fantasy's biggest boxes with elite passing volume. That likely drove most of his production in 2025, when he finished QB7 in total points but QB12 in points per game. Still, there's a little room for growth in 2026.

Sean Payton's offense has played faster and thrown more in each of his seasons as Broncos HC, a trend that could still add to Nix's output.

The team’s heavy investment in Waddle also points toward an offense focused on the passing game.

If Nix gets even a modest efficiency bump from Waddle while holding onto his passing volume and rushing production, he could crack the top 10 in fantasy points per game.

Risk Factors

Nix’s rushing production and consistency over his first two seasons make him a pretty safe pick after QB9 and QB11 finishes in points per game.

The addition of Waddle signals a likely continued high pass rate, though they were slightly more balanced when J.K. Dobbins was healthy:

	With Dobbins	Without Dobbins
Pass Rate	57.2%	60.8%
Neutral Pass Rate	57.6%	58.7%
Pass Rate Over Expected	+4.0%	+2.1%

Dobbins’ health and new contract make it unlikely Nix leads the league in pass attempts again this season, trimming some of that volume.

Nix’s ankle is the biggest question to monitor, though. He appears on track to start the year, but a slow start could drag down his season-long numbers.

Those risk factors are relatively minor, and Nix still looks like a high-floor QB1 who should land close to his first two seasons' finishes.