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Bo Nix - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsBo Nix's Basic Stats

Draft Sharks
ADP: 17.7
Bye: 14
Experience: 0
Age: 24.3
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 214

Bo Nix's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
217.2 1.27 0.7 12.1 15
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Bo Nix's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#27 Quarterback

239 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
17.7 318.4/496 3475.2 20.32 11.2 49.6 193.6 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsBo Nix's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Nix is the favorite to win Denver’s Week 1 starting job and should be a good fit in HC Sean Payton’s quick-hitting passing game.

But the rookie figures to pilot a conservative, run-leaning offense with a subpar group of weapons.

Nix should add some rushing production but is unlikely to ascend beyond QB2 status this season. He’s only worth drafting in superflex leagues and 1-QB leagues of 14+ teams.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Nix was a five-star recruit and the No. 1 dual-threat QB in the 2019 class.
  • He made 61 starts across five college seasons – three at Auburn and two at Oregon.
  • Nix’s numbers at Auburn were not very good:
    • 59.4% completion rate
    • 6.9 yards per attempt
    • 39 TDs vs. 16 INTs
  • He dealt with a poor supporting cast and questionable coaching at Auburn. But Nix never ranked better than 52nd in Pro Football Focus passing grade.
  • He was much better at Oregon.
    • Nix threw for 3,593 yards with 29 TDs and seven INTs on a 71.9% completion rate and 8.8 yards per attempt in 2022.
    • Then he set new career highs last year with:
      • 4,508 yards
      • 45 TDs (vs. just three INTs)
      • 77.4% completion rate
      • 9.6 yards per attempt
  • Nix led all QBs in Pro Football Focus’ 2023 passing grades and finished third in Heisman voting.
  • He thrived in an Oregon offense designed to get the ball out of his hands quickly.
    • Nix’s 2.44-second average time to throw last year was fourth fastest in the FBS.
    • His 6.8-yard average target depth was third lowest.
    • Just 10.9% of Nix’s passes traveled 20+ yards downfield – the 13th lowest rate among 147 qualifiers.
  • Nix was good when he did throw deep, though. Among those 147 qualifiers, he ranked sixth in completion rate, 14th in passer rating, and fifth in PFF passing grade on throws of 20+ yards.
  • Nix also ran for 1,613 yards and 38 TDs across his five college seasons.
    • If we omit the yardage deducted for sacks by the NCAA, he averaged 390.4 rushing yards per season.
  • The Broncos made Nix the 12th overall pick of this year’s draft. He was the fifth QB off the board, behind Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and J.J. McCarthy.
  • Multiple sources reported post-draft that Denver was the only team with a first-round grade on Nix.

What to Expect in 2024

  • With tons of college experience, first-round draft capital, and weak competition (Zach Wilson, Jarrett Stidham), Nix is the favorite to win Denver’s Week 1 starting job.
  • Broncos GM George Paton said shortly after the draft that Nix is "game-ready" to start as a rookie.
  • He’ll be operating in a Sean Payton offense that should be a good fit for his skill set. Payton has historically deployed a short, quick-hitting passing game. (Think Drew Brees.)
  • Denver was not a good environment for passing production in Payton’s first season at the helm. The 2023 Broncos ranked:
    • 29th in plays
    • 24th in pass rate
    • 27th in pass attempts
  • Russell Wilson ranked 16th among QBs in fantasy points per game as Denver’s starter last year.
  • We’re projecting the Broncos to be a conservative, run-leaning offense again in 2024.
  • Denver traded away WR Jerry Jeudy this offseason and added WRs Troy Franklin and Josh Reynolds. WRs Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims, along with TEs Greg Dulcich and Adam Trautman, return from last year’s group. It’s an underwhelming group of pass-catchers.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Bo Nix, QB DEN

9:34pm EDT 4/29/24

Broncos believe Bo Nix is "game-ready"

Broncos GM George Paton believes QB Bo Nix is "game-ready" to start as a rookie. Paton pointed to Nix's 61 college starts and the fact that he's already 24 years old. That advanced age might be a knock against Nix's ultimate ceiling, but it certainly helps his chances of hitting the ground running this season. With only QBs Zach Wilson and Jarrett Stidham in his way, Nix has a good chance to win the Week 1 starting job. He's a fine target in both redraft and dynasty superflex leagues.

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The Broncos spent the second pick of Round 4 on Oregon WR Troy Franklin. The No. 3 WR in the 2021 recruiting class broke out as a sophomore in 2022, leading the Ducks with 61 catches, 891 yards, and 9 TDs. He blasted by those numbers this past year, finishing top-6 in the country in receiving yards (1,383) and TDs (14). Franklin’s 3.32 yards per route ranked sixth among 286 qualifying WRs. His 87.3 Pro Football Focus receiving grade ranked 15th. Franklin was dominant going deep, averaging a huge 17.1 yards per catch and ranking top-10 in the nation in catches (14), receiving yards (558), and TDs (7) on targets 20+ yards downfield. He ran a 4.41-second 40-yard dash at the Combine and looks at least that fast on tape. Franklin regularly ran by DBs in man coverage and defeated angles vs. zone coverage. That speed also makes him a weapon after the catch. The concerns: Franklin is a wiry 6’2, 176-pounder and struggles with drops (8.0% career drop rate). He’s not a good bet to emerge as a No. 1 WR in the NFL. But his big-play ability gives him the potential to score a bunch of fantasy points without big target volume. Franklin’s dynasty value obviously takes a big hit after he fell to Round 4. But he landed with the team that drafted his QB of the past two years, Bo Nix, in Round 1. The Broncos traded away WR Jerry Jeudy this offseason. They still have WR Courtland Sutton under contract through 2025. He has been a subject of trade rumors, however, and sports a cuttable dead-cap number ($3.825 million) for the final year of his deal. WR Marvin Mims arrived in the second round of 2023 but has yet to truly break through. Ultimately, there's room for Franklin to earn a prominent role over the next few years. He'll carry upside if he slides far enough in your rookie draft. Expect his rookie ADP to decline vs. where it was pre-NFL Draft. How much that declines will be key to whether you should target him.

View all Troy Franklin Shark Bites »

The Broncos selected Oregon QB Bo Nix in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. Nix hit the college scene as one of the top 2019 recruits. Success never arrived at Auburn, though. Across three seasons, Nix never topped 2,500 yards or 20 TDs. You can put some of the blame on an underwhelming supporting cast. Or a coaching staff that simply didn’t highlight Nix’s strengths. Here’s how ESPN college football analyst Paul Finebaum reacted after Nix left Auburn. “I think he has an opportunity to have a really big year somewhere, under the right coach,” Finebaum predicted. “Now, who is the right coach? Certainly, someone who can mirror his game. That was really his problem this year, he was playing in a system that really didn’t suit him.” Well, a complete 180 happened in Oregon under HC Dan Lanning. Nix exploded in 2022 with 3,589 yards, 29 TDs, and only 7 INTs. He popped with an 82.3% adjusted completion rate and 8.8 yards per attempt. Nix’s numbers reached another level in 2023, as he enjoyed another campaign alongside Round 1 WR Troy Franklin. One thing to note: Nix wasn’t one to consistently push the ball downfield. 23% of his attempts at Oregon came on screens. And in 2023, his aDOT hit a shockingly low 6.8 yards. On tape, Nix looks like a polished pro whose timing, accuracy, and decision-making give him a chance to stick as a long-term starter. Landing in Denver gives Nix a good shot at starting Week 1, with Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson as his (meager) competition. This draft position boosts Nix as a dynasty rookie pick. Check our rookie rankings to see where he lands.

View all Bo Nix Shark Bites »

Oregon QB Bo Nix measured in at just over 6'2, 214 pounds at the NFL Combine. He threw in front of scouts but passed on athletic testing. Nix stayed at college for five years, although his career took off following a 2022 transfer to Oregon. Over the past two seasons, he’s combined for 8,101 yards and 74 TDs (27 games). NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah believes Nix will start "pretty early on," citing his accuracy, decision-making, and experience. While Nix isn't a top-end athlete, he showed flashes of being able to evade heavy pressure on tape. Recent Round 1 buzz suggests at least a chunk of teams view him as a long-term starter. We're just not buying into a high-end fantasy ceiling here.

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Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Bo Nix, QB DEN
Dynasty MVP 224.7
Position Rank #39 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
675
1,141
2,204
Dynasty Write-up
A former Gatorade Player of the Year in Alabama, Nix never developed across three seasons at Auburn. His game needed polish, but questionable coaching and a suspect supporting cast didn’t help. A complete turnaround followed after his transfer to Oregon, highlighted by a Heisman-quality 2023 (4,508 yards, 45 TDs, 3 INTs). Nix has the requisite arm talent and athleticism to make waves in fantasy. Just note that he’s older for a prospect (24). Top-15 draft capital was a win here, and the landing spot with Sean Payton brings promise.
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