Breece Hall Fantasy Overview

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Hall ranked 21st among RBs in total PPR points and points per game last season. His 12.8 points per game checked in well short of any of his previous three averages:

• 2022: 16.6
• 2023: 17.0
• 2024: 14.9

Hall opened the year with an RB10 finish but reached the top 12 only four more times across 15 outings. He also finished outside the top 24 eight times, including seven weeks outside the top 30 and three outside the top 40.

Usage & Role

Hall’s fantasy decline interestingly came despite a career high in carries per game. After rushing 11.4 times per outing as a rookie (including the contest he left early with an ACL tear), Hall averaged 13.1 carries each of his next two seasons and then 15.2 last year.

His carry share dipped vs. the previous two seasons, but you can blame that on the 2025 QBs accounting for more of the team’s rushing attempts.

Hall’s share of Jets RB carries hit a career high in 2025. His 77.1% cut of those attempts dwarfed Hall’s 67.4% and 69.3% shares the previous two years (all adjusted for games played).

All that QB rushing damaged his receiving output, though. Hall averaged a career-low 2.3 receptions per game, well down from 3.6 and 4.5 the previous two years. He tied for just 16th among RBs in total targets and 15th in catches while tying Jahmyr Gibbs for 11th in carries. The Jets ranked 25th in RB target share -- despite a dearth of WR options -- down from 18th in 2024 and second in 2023.

Hall fared fine when he got the ball, at least. His 9.7 yards per catch beat each of his previous two years, and his 7.3 yards per target set a career high.

Hall’s 4.4 yards per carry marked a slight rebound vs. 2024 (4.2), while his rushing-success rate climbed from 39.5% and 46.4% the previous two years to 49.8% (just shy of his 50% rookie-year high). That 2025 rate still ranked him just 25th among qualifying RBs, though.

Efficiency & Regression

Hall’s per-carry efficiency looks just OK by other metrics as well. Among 51 RBs who carried at least 90 times last year (playoffs included), Hall ranked 29th in Pro Football Focus’ yards after contact per attempt. That rate dipped slightly from 2024, when he finished 22nd among 49 qualifiers.

Hall’s missed tackles forced per attempt have also dipped for two straight years. Here’s how they’ve progressed through his four seasons (per PFF):

• 2022: 0.19
• 2023: 0.20
• 2024: 0.17
• 2025: 0.16

That after-contact production declined despite an apparent boost in blocking help. Hall’s 2.5 yards before contact per attempt last season -- according to Pro Football Reference -- beat his numbers from each of the previous two years. And the Jets climbed from 29th in ESPN’s run-block win rate in 2024 to 14th in 2025.

Offensive Context

The offense on whole stunk, however. The 2025 Jets ranked:

• 29th in scoring
• 29th in total yards
• 29th in yards per play
• 32nd in expected points added per play

That environment obviously didn’t help anyone’s production and led to significant changes for 2026.

Injury History & Durability

Hall’s career started roughly on the injury front. He tore the ACL and suffered meniscus damage in his left knee in Week 7 of his 2022 rookie year. Hall managed to start the next season on time but saw his workload limited through the season’s first four weeks.

The issue didn’t totally go away, though. Interim HC Jeff Ulbrich told reporters late in 2024 that Hall had been “struggling a bit” with that same knee. The RB saw his December workloads waver but missed just one game (Week 14).

Even last season found knee issues popping up on the injury report, but Hall missed only the regular-season finale en route to his career high in carries.

The Jets’ decision to franchise-tag Hall and then sign him to a three-year deal says they’re not worried about the knee going forward.

Projected Role & Competition

That money says Hall should keep his dominant hold on the backfield. The Jets added nothing at RB in free agency or the draft, returning Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis as Hall’s backup tandem.

QB Geno Smith won’t excite many people as the new starter, but he should help Hall as much as anyone. Swapping out Justin Fields -- plus four Tyrod Taylor starts -- for Smith should mean a rebound in target volume for Jets RBs.

Check out Hall’s target shares through four seasons (adjusted for games missed):

• 2022: 11.6% (11th among RBs)
• 2023: 14.8% (fourth)
• 2024: 13.0% (fourth)
• 2025: 8.7% (25th)

A rebound in receiving opportunity will be vital to Hall’s production. That area has factored heavily into his fantasy success (or failure) to date.

This table shows his annual ranks in PPR points per game, the share of his production that came via receiving, and where those shares have ranked among the top 50 RBs in points per game.

Hall finished 2023 and 2024 among the top four at his position in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. And he tied for third and fifth among RBs in receiving TDs those two years, despite his teams finishing 29th and 24th, respectively, in total points.

In addition to Smith, this year’s Jets added TE Kenyon Sadiq and WR Omar Cooper Jr. in Round 1 of the draft. But the unit still looks underwhelming and will get Frank Reich as the uninspiring new OC.

So Hall will likely continue to rely on touch volume over offensive efficiency to drive his fantasy scoring.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

Reich has 10 years as either OC or head coach across four NFL franchises. He hasn’t served in the OC role since 2017 in Philadelphia, though.

Reich’s five years as Colts HC and (almost) one at Carolina’s helm surely found him heavily involved in offensive design. But it’s clearly not the same job as when you’re just in charge of the offense.

The results have proved mixed across Reich’s NFL offenses. Just four of them have finished higher than 16th in total yards. Four also finished higher than 16th in scoring.

His units have operated at a pretty good pace, though. Six of the 10 ranked 10th or higher in total plays. That included a four-year span of third-place finishes that spanned two franchise shifts. His 2015 Chargers, 2016 Eagles, 2017 Eagles, and 2018 Colts all ranked third.

Reich offenses have shown no discernible lean toward the run or pass. Here are his offenses’ median annual ranks:

• Rushing attempts: No. 13
• Pass attempts: 13.5
• Yards per carry: 20
• Net yards per pass attempt: 15.5

Jets passing volume will almost certainly increase in 2026. Last year’s team tied for 23rd in total plays but ranked last in situation-neutral pass rate, according to RBSDM.com, and 26th in total pass attempts.

Fields and Taylor exacerbated the issue by combining for 50 scrambles among their 430 total dropbacks, an 11.6% rate. Smith, by comparison, scrambled on only 3.4% of his dropbacks (18 or 524) in 2025.

Fewer QB scrambles in 2026 should mean more checkdowns to the proven pass catcher in the backfield.

Paths to Ceiling

Hall’s clearest path to upside is keeping last year’s commanding workload share while rebounding in target volume.

Hall scored just 77 PPR points via reception last season, compared with 123.3 in 2024 and 159.1 the year before that. Swap in those tallies for last year’s deflated total and you’d boost Hall from 21st in total PPR points to RB11 or RB7.

If the Jets surprise on offense and deliver more scoring chances or Hall sees some boost in yardage and scoring efficiency, great. But the rebounded receiving usage is the piece he needs.

Risk Factors

Just because Hall’s knee troubles didn’t scare the Jets away from committing a three-year deal doesn’t necessarily mean they’re in the past. We’ll watch this summer to see whether there’s reason to worry.

The Jets also might not meaningfully ramp up RB receiving opportunities, though some positive change there feels nearly guaranteed. The real question is how much.

Of course, if the offense remains among the league’s least productive, that would limit the upside for everyone. Hall has been able to counter that limitation in the past with better touch volume, though. That’s likely the path for 2026 as well.