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Brian Robinson Jr. - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsBrian Robinson Jr.'s Basic Stats

Brian Robinson Jr.
ADP: 9.4
Bye: 14
Experience: 3
Age: 25.3
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 228
40 Time: 4.53

Burst Score (Rank): 110.50 (15%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.92 (8%)
Three Cone Drill (Rank): 7.33

Brian Robinson Jr.'s Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
54.3 0.36 1.5 11.5 0.06 9.4
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
60.3 0.4 1 7.2 0 9.3

Brian Robinson Jr.'s 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#29 Running Back

169.3 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
9.4 209.4 881.2 5.85 0.3 1.6 24.6 188.4 0.98

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsBrian Robinson Jr.'s Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Washington’s pass rate is expected to drop a bit under a new coaching staff.

While OC Kliff Kingsbury isn’t an exciting hire, it’s easy to find 220+ touches for Robinson – particularly if Austin Ekeler’s decline continues.

Questions at QB and OL add risk. But it would be a surprise if Robinson isn’t at least a usable FLEX this season.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Robinson left Week 13 with a hamstring injury and missed two games after a Week 14 bye.
  • Still, he played well ahead of Antonio Gibson, out-carrying the new Patriot 178-65.
  • He proved capable as the lead back for one-and-done OC Eric Bienemy, who orchestrated a pass-heavy attack.
    • Among 33 RBs with 175+ carries, Robinson ranked 16th in yards per carry, 22nd in EPA per rush, ninth in yards after contact per attempt and 21st in success rate.
    • Washington ranked ninth in Pro Football Focus’ run blocking grade.
  • Robinson finished as an RB2 or better nine times. His worst finish: RB35
  • He surprised as a pass catcher, catching 36 of 40 targets at 10.2 yards per catch.
    • He added a monstrous 11.4 yards after catch per reception.
    • His four receiving TDs were topped by only two RBs.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Washington let Antonio Gibson walk in free agency.
    • He removes 65 catches and 59 targets from the 2023 offense.
  • New GM Adam Peters added an accomplished back in former Charger Austin Ekeler.
    • With 50+ catches in five straight seasons, expect Ekeler to see a heavy dose of the receiving work.
    • However, at 29, Ekeler’s very likely on the decline.
    • His 2023 included several significant career lows. He missed early season games with a high-ankle injury and didn’t look right upon returning.
  • Robinson shared a bit about the offense in May, saying “the tempo will be faster … [with] more no huddle.”
  • That offense will be directed by new OC Kliff Kingsbury.
    • His Arizona offenses ranked 16th, 13th, 11th, and 21st in points.
    • They finished 19th, 6th, 7th, and 20th in rush attempts.
  • Washington hired RB coach Anthony Lynn in February.
    • The former NFL RB spent the past two seasons as an assistant HC/RB coach under 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan.
  • Jayden Daniels arrives as a playmaking QB.
    • His top-end rushing ability adds the potential for boosted rush efficiency.
  • Washington’s O-line doesn’t look spectacular.
    • They ranked 22nd in run block win rate last year.
    • The team will undergo turnover, losing G Saahdiq Charles, C Nick Gates, C Tyler Larsen, and LT Charles Leno Jr.
    • Additions include C Tyler Biadasz, C Michael Dieter, and G Nick Allegretti. LT remains the most pressing question mark.
    • We're not expecting any better than a league-average unit.

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Austin Ekeler, RB WAS

6:14am EDT 6/17/24

What Does Austin Ekeler Have Left?

New Commanders RB Austin Ekeler endured a forgettable 2023 season. It started with a Week 1 high-ankle sprain, one that lingered upon returning in Week 6. The now 29-year-old set career lows in yards per carry (3.5), yards after contact per attempt (2.64) and Pro Football Focus Elusive Rating (49.4). With better health, can Ekeler rebound in Washington?

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The Commanders are signing RB Austin Ekeler to a two-year deal, according to multiple reports. NFL Networks' Tom Pelissero reports it's worth "up to $11.43 million." The exact terms aren't yet clear, but it looks like he'll get a larger annual average than the three-year deal Antonio Gibson agreed to with the Patriots. The new Washington staff likely views Ekeler as at least an upgrade over Gibson. And Commanders run-game coordinator Anthony Lynn is plenty familiar with the veteran RB, having served as Chargers HC through the first four years of Ekeler's career. Ekeler figures to share touches with Brian Robinson Jr., operating as the lead receiving back. We'll watch for more signals on Ekeler's expected role. For now, both Washington RBs make sense in RB3 range of best ball drafts. Check our best ball rankings to see exactly where they land.

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The Commanders are hiring Kliff Kingsbury as their OC under HC Dan Quinn, according to multiple reports. Kingsbury had an underwhelming tenure as Cardinals HC from 2019 to 2022, going 28-37-1 over those four seasons. He landed two of those teams inside the top 8 in total yards, but none cracked the top 10 in points. Kingsbury at least deployed fast-paced attacks, with three of his four offenses finishing top 3 in pace and offensive plays. He joins a Washington squad with plenty of skill-position talent and the No. 2 overall pick in this spring's draft, which will presumably be used to take a QB.

View all Terry McLaurin Shark Bites »

Commanders RB Brian Robinson (hamstring) is not listed on the final Week 17 injury report. Washington will be back to a Robinson/Antonio Gibson backfield vs. the 49ers on Sunday, with RB Chris Rodriguez (ankle) on IR. Robinson sits in low RB3 range in the Week 17 Rankings with the Commanders 12.5-point underdogs. He's averaged just 10.6 carries per game in losses this season.

View all Brian Robinson Jr. Shark Bites »

Commanders RB Brian Robinson (hamstring) got in a limited practice on Wednesday. RB Chris Rodriguez (ankle) did not practice. We'll see how this backfield shapes up over the next few days, but it's a situation to try to avoid with Washington sporting an 18.25-point implied total vs. the 49ers.

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Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

Brian Robinson Jr., RB WAS
Dynasty MVP 88.0
Position Rank #45 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
316
457
671
Dynasty Write-up
As a rookie, Robinson overcame an August shooting to lead the Commanders in rushing. He started hot in year two before fading over the second half. Antonio Gibson departed this past free agency, but the Commanders upgraded by adding former Charger Austin Ekeler. Robinson figures to remain a TD-dependent fantasy play.
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