Brian Robinson Jr. - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Washington’s pass rate is expected to drop a bit under a new coaching staff.

While OC Kliff Kingsbury isn’t an exciting hire, it’s easy to find 220+ touches for Robinson – particularly if Austin Ekeler’s decline continues.

Questions at QB and OL add risk. But it would be a surprise if Robinson isn’t at least a usable FLEX this season.

What We Learned Last Year

• Robinson left Week 13 with a hamstring injury and missed two games after a Week 14 bye.
• Still, he played well ahead of Antonio Gibson, out-carrying the new Patriot 178-65.
• He proved capable as the lead back for one-and-done OC Eric Bienemy, who orchestrated a pass-heavy attack.
  • Among 33 RBs with 175+ carries, Robinson ranked 16th in yards per carry, 22nd in EPA per rush, ninth in yards after contact per attempt and 21st in success rate.
  • Washington ranked ninth in Pro Football Focus’ run blocking grade.
• Robinson finished as an RB2 or better nine times. His worst finish: RB35
• He surprised as a pass catcher, catching 36 of 40 targets at 10.2 yards per catch.
  • He added a monstrous 11.4 yards after catch per reception.
  • His four receiving TDs were topped by only two RBs.

What to Expect in 2024

• Washington let Antonio Gibson walk in free agency.
  • He removes 65 catches and 59 targets from the 2023 offense.
• New GM Adam Peters added an accomplished back in former Charger Austin Ekeler.
  • With 50+ catches in five straight seasons, expect Ekeler to see a heavy dose of the receiving work.
  • However, at 29, Ekeler’s very likely on the decline.
  • His 2023 included several significant career lows. He missed early season games with a high-ankle injury and didn’t look right upon returning.
• Robinson shared a bit about the offense in May, saying “the tempo will be faster … [with] more no huddle.”
• That offense will be directed by new OC Kliff Kingsbury.
  • His Arizona offenses ranked 16th, 13th, 11th, and 21st in points.
  • They finished 19th, 6th, 7th, and 20th in rush attempts.
• Washington hired RB coach Anthony Lynn in February.
  • The former NFL RB spent the past two seasons as an assistant HC/RB coach under 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan.
• Jayden Daniels arrives as a playmaking QB.
  • His top-end rushing ability adds the potential for boosted rush efficiency.
• Washington’s O-line doesn’t look spectacular.
  • They ranked 22nd in run block win rate last year.
  • The team will undergo turnover, losing G Saahdiq Charles, C Nick Gates, C Tyler Larsen, and LT Charles Leno Jr.
  • Additions include C Tyler Biadasz, C Michael Dieter, and G Nick Allegretti. LT remains the most pressing question mark.
  • We're not expecting any better than a league-average unit.