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Brian Robinson Jr. - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsBrian Robinson Jr.'s Basic Stats

Brian Robinson Jr.
ADP: N/A
Bye: 14
Experience: 1 Yr(s)
Age: 24.7
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 228
40 Time: 4.53
Burst Score (Rank): 110.50 (15%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.92 (7%)
Three Cone Drill (Rank): 7.33

Brian Robinson Jr.'s Weekly Outlook

Week 13 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
48.4 0.3 2.3 17.6 0 8.2
Weekly Writeup
Robinson ran a pass route at his third-lowest rate of the season in the Thanksgiving loss to Dallas. Antonio Gibson's return and the game's blowout conditions both worked against him on that front. Both could be factors again this week, with Miami arriving as a 9.5-point favorite. Robinson has still managed 15 and 17 carries in losses the past two weeks. But he has averaged 11.0 carries in eight losses for the season compared with 16.3 carries in four victories. So expected game conditions here hurt his fantasy outlook.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
51.6 0.5 1.4 12.2 0.1 9.8

Brian Robinson Jr.'s 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#17 Running Back

156.6 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
Not Available 226.5 824.8 7.4 1.8 0.9 23 194.9 2

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsBrian Robinson Jr.'s Preseason Player Analysis

View RB Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

Robinson was a true feel-good story last year, returning from multiple gunshot wounds to lead Washington in rushing.

There’s optimism that Sam Howell can improve this team’s QB play, but we’re not betting on this being a top offense. RB Antonio Gibson also remains on the roster to take a good chunk of the receiving work.

Those factors limit Robinson to the RB3 range in drafts.


What We Learned Last Year
  • Washington selected Robinson in Round 3 as the RB6.
  • He appeared in 12 games as a rookie.
    • Robinson underwent surgery in August following multiple gunshot wounds to his lower body. He made a stunning recovery, missing only four games.
    • Robinson sat out Week 18 with a knee/thigh injury.
  • In his NFL debut, Robinson led Washington in carries with nine.
  • Going forward, Robinson was able to earn some heavy workloads. The ‘Bama product saw 17+ carries seven times, with all but one coming alongside a healthy Antonio Gibson.
  • You can point to the early-season injury, lost practice time, and a poor QB situation, but Robinson didn’t turn his volume into fantasy-friendly production.
    • He finished as a top-12 PPR RB only once. He had three top-24 finishes.
    • Among 33 RBs with 150+ carries, he ranked T-29th in yards per carry, 29th in yards after contact per attempt, and 24th in elusive rating.
    • Perhaps most crushing: Robinson earned only 12 targets. He sat 77th among RBs in routes run.
  • Washington’s O-line needed work, too. They finished 19th in run block win rate; 23rd in PFF run-blocking grade.

What to Expect in 2023
  • Washington added one RB in the NFL draft but not until Round 6 (Chris Rodriguez).
    • Like Robinson, he brings a power-back skill set. He’s a longshot for a Year 1 role, though.
  • Eric Bieniemy joined on as the OC, replacing Scott Turner.
    • He’s spent the past 10 years in Kansas City: five as the RBs coach, five as the OC.
    • Working in a collaborative play-calling role with HC Andy Reid, the Chiefs offense ranked top 6 in points and yards in each of Bieniemy’s seasons as OC.
    • Chiefs RBs ranked sixth, 20th, 12th, seventh, and eighth in yards per carry.
    • His lead backs over that stretch: Kareem Hunt, Damien Williams, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darrel Williams, and Isiah Pacheco.
    • Ben Standig of The Athletic suggests that the team might implement more RB screens. Most opportunities figure to go to Antonio Gibson, though.
  • Gibson was the subject of trade rumors in 2022 but returns for the final year of his rookie deal.
  • Washington’s offense remains one with more questions than answers.
    • Sam Howell is the heavy favorite to start Week 1. But he saw the field for only one Week 18 start as a rookie.
    • The O-line looks average. They at least injected the unit with fresh talent in LG Nick Gates and RT Andrew Wylie.

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Antonio Gibson, RB WAS

22 hours ago

Antonio Gibson's opportunities up; sneaky Week 13 play?

Commanders RB Antonio Gibson has garnered his three largest touch counts of the season over his past three games. That has meant just 11, 9, and 9 touches, not necessarily a relevant level of usage for most fantasy formats. But receptions are driving those numbers. Gibson has caught five passes in three of his past four games and returned from a toe injury last week to regain the backfield receiving lead from Brian Robinson Jr. Sunday finds Washington entering the game as 9.5-point underdogs to Miami, which points to pass-friendly game conditions. That doesn't make Gibson a strong fantasy option. But it does give him some sneaky upside in a week with six teams on bye. See where Gibson lands in our Week 13 RB rankings.

View all Antonio Gibson Shark Bites »

Commanders RB Brian Robinson Jr. managed just 2 receptions for 11 yards on 3 targets in Thursday's loss to the Cowboys. That was noteworthy for a couple of reasons: 1) Washington attempted 44 passes in a 35-point loss. So overall volume wasn't an issue. 2) He had racked up 15 targets, 13 catches, and 178 receiving yards over the previous two games. One of those came without RB Antonio Gibson, who returned from injury to lead Washington RBs in routes and targets (4) against Dallas. Robinson did get a solid 15 carries (for 53 yards) despite the negative game script. That hasn't tended to be the case this season. He entered Thursday averaging just 10.4 carries across seven losses. Still, the abnormal receiving production for Robinson against the Seahawks and Giants likely inflated his fantasy value. That's why we highlighted the Washington RB for the second straight week in our Trade Targets article ahead of Thursday's game. If your league still allows trading beyond this week, go ahead and see if you can make a worthwhile move. Robinson gets a tough remaining slate of defenses and still has his bye ahead in Week 14.

View all Brian Robinson Jr. Shark Bites »

Commanders RB Antonio Gibson (toe) is active for today’s game vs. the Cowboys. He was reportedly a game-time decision, so it’s safe to assume that he’s not at 100% for this one. Gibson is only an option in Thanksgiving DFS tournaments. His return does put a ding on RB Brian Robinson’s target projection.

View all Antonio Gibson Shark Bites »

Commanders RB Antonio Gibson (toe) is questionable for Thursday's game vs. the Cowboys. He missed Week 11 with this injury but got in three limited practices this week. Gibson will only be in play in DFS tournaments if he ends up playing tomorrow. If not, RB Brian Robinson will continue to dominate rushing and receiving work in Washington's backfield.

View all Antonio Gibson Shark Bites »

Commanders RB Antonio Gibson (toe) got in a limited practice on Tuesday. It gives him a chance to return for the Thanksgiving game vs. the Cowboys. Gibson wouldn't be a recommended season-long starter, but his return would dent RB Brian Robinson's Week 12 fantasy value.

View all Antonio Gibson Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

Brian Robinson Jr., RB WAS
Dynasty MVP 110.9
Position Rank #29 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
392
574
871
Dynasty Write-up
As a rookie, Robinson overcame an August shooting to lead the Commanders in rushing. Truly amazing. This offseason, the Commanders only added Round 6 rookie Chris Rodriguez to the backfield.
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