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Bijan Robinson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsBijan Robinson's Basic Stats

Bijan Robinson
ADP: 1.7
Bye: 11
Experience: 0 Yr(s)
Age: 21.6
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 215

Bijan Robinson's Weekly Outlook

Week 3 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
66.3 0.4 3.7 29.7 0.2 12.8
Weekly Writeup
Robinson is the rare RB who might be better off in trailing game scripts this season. He totaled 16 touches in Atlanta's easy Week 1 win but racked up 23 touches in a closer Week 2 game. The Falcons are 3-point underdogs in Detroit this weekend.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
77 0.6 3.8 26.2 0.1 14.3

Bijan Robinson's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#2 Running Back

220.8 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
1.7 265.9 1221.8 9 2.7 2.6 40.4 323.7 2.9

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsBijan Robinson's Preseason Player Analysis

View RB Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

Nobody dislikes Robinson as a fantasy prospect. The only question is whether he’ll go too early in 2023 drafts. The rookie has already climbed comfortably into Round 1 in non-superflex formats and commonly goes as the third or fourth RB.

Robinson certainly has the potential to score like that. But there’s clear risk to spending your first pick on a guy we have yet to see in the pros.

Our projections say it’s not a crazy spot for Robinson, but we do have a couple of RBs in front of him.

What We Learned Last Year
  • How much could we learn about a guy who has been a star the whole time?
  • Robinson arrived at Texas as the nation’s No. 1 RB recruit. He shared work with Roschon Johnson and future Cardinal Keaontay Ingram as a true freshman before taking over the past two years.
  • Robinson racked up 1,422 scrimmage yards and 15 total TDs through 10 games in 2021 before succumbing to an elbow injury. He followed with 1,894 total yards and 20 total TDs as a junior in 2022.
  • Robinson averaged 6.3 yards per rush for his career and posted stellar receiving efficiency. He averaged 13.4 yards per catch for his college career, across 60 receptions. Robinson averaged at least 11.3 yards per catch each year. And his 6.8-yard average depth of target in 2022 – according to Pro Football Focus – shows that he was catching much more than screens, swing passes, and dump-offs.
  • Robinson delivered an 86th-percentile college dominator rating for the position, which measures a player’s share of his offense’s yards and TDs.
  • He followed his terrific three-year run with impressive testing numbers. That included an 82th-percentile 40 time among RBs, an 89th-percentile speed score, and 80th percentile or better vertical and broad jumps.
  • The Falcons drafted him eighth overall in April.
What to Expect in 2023
  • The past four RBs to get drafted inside the first half of Round 1 fared pretty well:
    • Saquon Barkley led all RBs in fantasy points in 2018.
    • Leonard Fournette finished seventh in PPR points per game in 2017; ninth in total points despite missing three games.
    • Christian McCaffrey ranked 10th in total PPR points that same year. He’s done all right since.
    • Ezekiel Elliott finished second among fantasy RBs as a 2016 rookie.
  • Before that: Melvin Gordon struggled with TD luck in 2015, but Todd Gurley (2015) and Trent Richardson (2012) both delivered right away.
  • Robinson’s draft capital points to immediate opportunities. These Falcons had spent minimally at RB before drafting him. That included small free-agent deals for the likes of Mike Davis, Damien Williams, and Cordarrelle Patterson (before re-signing him ahead of last season). Tyler Allgeier arrived in Round 5 last year.
  • Atlanta touted “positionless” football after selecting Robinson, answering questions about how they’ll fit multiple RBs into the offense. We’re not betting on Robinson spending quite that much time running WR routes. But there has already been practice video of him flexing out to WR spots in the formation.
  • The main question we can’t answer is just how much of the rushing workload Atlanta will give him. On one hand, you’d expect the Falcons to avoid breaking down their new prized possession. But teams historically don’t tend to take a RB that high without a workhorse plan.
  • Atlanta ranked as the second most run-heavy offense in the league last year. But that changed some after QB Desmond Ridder took over. The Falcons ranked 32nd in situation-neutral pass rate through Marcus Mariota’s 13 starts. They climbed to 24th with Ridder. And the 2021 version (with Matt Ryan) went 60.9% pass.
  • Expect plenty of running here. But there’s at least a chance the Falcons don’t go quite as heavy there as many assume.
  • Robinson, of course, has showed out as a runner and receiver and will be heavily involved either way.

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Cordarrelle Patterson, RB ATL

1 hour ago

Cordarrelle Patterson INACTIVE

Falcons RB Cordarrelle Patterson (thigh) is inactive for today’s game vs. the Lions. Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier will continue to handle 100% of Atlanta’s RB work.

View all Cordarrelle Patterson Shark Bites »

Falcons RB Bijan Robinson recorded 19 attempts for 124 rushing yards in Week 2’s win vs. the Packers. The rookie also added 4 catches on 5 targets for 48 yards as a receiver. Teammate RB Tyler Allgeier also had plenty of involvement, logging 16 carries for 48 rushing yards, but failed to see any involvement in the passing game. Similarly to Week 1, 49.1% of the Falcons’ total yards funneled through their RBs despite QB Desmond Ridder nearly doubling his pass attempts. It’s reasonable to expect Atlanta to continue their ground-and-pound approach again next week vs. the Lions. Both Robinson and Allgeier remain viable fantasy options as long as HC Arthur Smith keeps focuses this offense through the backfield at such a high rate.

View all Bijan Robinson Shark Bites »

Falcons RB Cordarrelle Patterson is inactive for today’s game vs. the Packers. He was left off the final injury report, so this is a healthy scratch. It’s good news for RBs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier.

View all Cordarrelle Patterson Shark Bites »

The Falcons are expected to split carries between RBs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier again vs. the Packers today, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. "While Bijan Robinson may get the start, he is not going to be a bell cow," Rapoport adds. "This will be evenly divided." That's what we saw in Week 1, with Allgeier actually out-carrying Robinson 15 to 10. The rookie did see six targets, though, finishing with 83 total yards and a score. Robinson's efficiency and passing-game usage keep him in RB1 territory. Allgeier is a RB3 or flex option.

View all Bijan Robinson Shark Bites »

Falcons RB Cordarrelle Patterson (thigh) put in a full week of practice and isn’t listed on the final injury report. He’ll make his 2023 debut vs. the Packers on Sunday. Patterson isn’t a viable fantasy option, but we’ll see how much work he steals from RBs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier.

View all Cordarrelle Patterson Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

Bijan Robinson, RB ATL
Dynasty MVP 200.5
Position Rank #1 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
615
1,024
1,916
Dynasty Write-up
Robinson profiles as the best RB prospect since Saquon Barkley. Thickly built and explosive, the Texas product should push for a three-down role early on with Atlanta. This 21-year-old has all the hallmarks of a long-term RB1.
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