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Bijan Robinson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsBijan Robinson's Basic Stats

Bijan Robinson
ADP: 1.7
Bye: 12
Experience: 1
Age: 22.3
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 215
40 Time: 4.46

Burst Score (Rank): 124.90 (82%)

Bijan Robinson's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
72.6 0.5 3.9 32.4 0.2 14.5
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
84.4 0.6 2.7 22.2 0.1 14.7

Bijan Robinson's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#2 Running Back

294.2 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
1.7 252.8 1161.6 8 4.8 1.7 62.4 518.4 3.2

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsBijan Robinson's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Robinson escapes an Arthur Smith offense where he was underutilized and is now in an offense that figures to lean heavily on its primary RB.

Upgrading at QB this offseason should also provide more scoring opportunities for Robinson in the red zone and continue his use as a receiver out of the backfield.

His first-round ADP is appropriate for his talent and we have him slotted similarly in our 2024 RB rankings.

Robinson’s volume and talent solidify him as a consistent RB1 producer with potential to be the highest-scoring RB this season.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Robinson’s 1,463 total yards ranked sixth among RBs. His 51 catches ranked 10th.
  • He did not miss any games due to injury.
  • Robinson ranked 14th among RBs in PPR points (220.2) and 16th in points per game (10.6).
    • He finished RB12 or better six times. He recorded six games between RB13 and RB24.
  • He ranked 35th among all ball carriers in rushing success rate at 43.5%.
  • He played 68% of the Falcon’s offensive snaps last season. In those 16 games, he averaged:
    • 12.7 carries
    • 59.25 rushing yards
    • 0.25 rushing TDs
    • 4.9 targets (16.5% share)
    • 3.2 catches
    • 24 receiving yards
    • 0.19 receiving TDs
  • Robinson was a very effective runner as a rookie. Among 51 RBs with 90+ carries last year, he ranked:
    • 28th in Pro Football Focus rushing grade
    • 13th in PFF’s Elusive Rating
    • 12th in NFL Next Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt
  • He showed promise in receiving metrics as well. Among 43 RBs with 30+ targets, Robinson ranked:
    • 25th in PFF receiving grade
    • 20th in yards per route run

What to Expect in 2024

  • Robinson will play under HC Raheem Morris and first-time OC and play-caller Zac Robinson.
    • Robinson has been on the Rams’ staff since 2019 under Sean McVay, working as the QB coach and pass game coordinator since 2022.
    • While Robinson was on staff, the Rams averaged 456.6 rushes per season.
    • The primary RB had 47.17% of the rushing attempts during that time.
  • Kirk Cousins signed with the Falcons and will provide a significant QB upgrade.
    • Last season Cousins had a superior 85.1 PFF passing grade compared to Desmond Ridder (53.2) and Taylor Heinicke (48.5)
  • The Falcons are expected to be pretty good. They lead the NFC South with a 9.5 win total at most sportsbooks.
  • This expectation of success is largely due to Cousins joining the team. The Falcons’ Super Bowl odds jumped from +4000 before Cousins to +2800 after he signed.
  • Robinson enters his 2nd season at age-22. According to our aging curve research, a RB with Robinson’s profile produces at 94% of his peak value at 22.

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Kirk Cousins, QB ATL

10:17am EST 3/5/24

Kirk Cousins heading to Atlanta?

Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio writes that he has "very credible indications" that QB Kirk Cousins is "seriously considering" a move to Atlanta to sign with the Falcons. Cousins' wife grew up near Atlanta, and the Falcons "have always been the top alternative to the Vikings for Cousins," per Florio. Cousins would be a nice fit playing indoors in new OC Zac Robinson's offense with WR Drake London, TE Kyle Pitts, and RB Bijan Robinson. Likewise, a move for Cousins would be excellent news for the fantasy value of Atlanta's key weapons. We should know who Cousins will be playing for in 2024 within the next couple of weeks.

View all Kirk Cousins Shark Bites »

Falcons RB Bijan Robinson shared one of his goals for the 2024 season. "I want 2,000 yards rushing," Robinson told Sports Illustrated. "I know those are big expectations, what we can do as an offense, with all the weapons, our O-line with [OC] Zac [Robinson] being at the helm… it can be something special.” As a rookie, Robinson tallied 976 rushing yards across 17 games. And note: in league history, only eight RBs have reached 2,000 rushing yards. Clearly, it's an aspirational goal. Still, Robinson should push for the league lead in touches, making him a top-3 target in our fantasy football RB rankings.

View all Bijan Robinson Shark Bites »

The Falcons are hiring Zac Robinson as their new OC under HC Raheem Morris, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. The 37-year-old Robinson played QB at Oklahoma State from 2006 to 2009. He was selected in the seventh round of the 2010 NFL draft by the Patriots but never attempted a regular-season pass across four seasons. Robinson then spent some time working as an analyst for Pro Football Focus before joining Sean McVay's Rams in 2019 as assistant QB coach. Robinson worked his way up to QB coach and passing-game coordinator over the last two seasons, but this will be his first time calling plays. Robinson's new offense has plenty of skill-position talent in RB Bijan Robinson, WR Drake London, and TE Kyle Pitts, but QB remains a major question mark. Atlanta currently holds the eighth overall pick in this spring's draft.

View all Bijan Robinson Shark Bites »

Falcons RB Bijan Robinson posted 15 carries for 75 rushing yards in Week 17 vs. the Bears. The rookie was also able to haul in 3 of 4 targets for 11 yards as a receiver in the contest. Though Robinson’s debut campaign had its complications, he’s on pace to become the 17th rookie RB to accumulate 1,000 rushing yards in a season since 2013 and sits as the RB12 overall in PPR scoring. It’s not quite the dominant “2016 Ezekiel Elliott” first season that fantasy managers had hoped for, but it’s encouraging enough to remain optimistic about Robinson as a high-end RB1 in dynasty formats. The biggest potential boon for his value would be if Atlanta chose to move on from HC Arthur Smith after the season and allowed Robinson the opportunity to take on a larger workshare instead of splitting with teammate Tyler Allgeier. Be sure to keep up with us on that front as we head into 2024.

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Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

Bijan Robinson, RB ATL
Dynasty MVP 157.2
Position Rank #5 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
530
842
1,267
Dynasty Write-up
Robinson profiled as the best RB prospect since Saquon Barkley. Thickly built and explosive, the Texas product simply never earned a consistent role under HC Arthur Smith. With Smith out of town, Robinson (and the entire Atlanta offense) could take a sizable step forward in 2024.
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