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Robinson has finished as a top-3 fantasy RB in each of the last two seasons, is in his prime at age 24, and should see a workhorse role in 2026.
A new coaching staff and a likely new QB in Tua Tagovailoa add a little uncertainty, but Robinson still looks like one of the safest fantasy picks with league-winning upside.
He’s a top-4 pick across formats.
Customize Robinson’s projection for your exact league settings inside the Draft War Room.
Robinson finished second among RBs in PPR points per game last year; third in half-PPR and non-PPR points per game.
He carried 287 times for 1,478 yards and 7 TDs and added another 820 yards and four scores on 79 catches. Robinson ranked fourth among RBs in rushing yards, second in receiving yards, and 13th in total TDs.
He scored as a top-12 PPR RB in 12 of 17 outings, including nine top-5 weeks. That tied Christian McCaffrey for most top-5 weeks at the position.
Robinson was a workhorse for Atlanta last year. He ranked third among RBs in both snaps (821) and snap rate (78.3%).
The touches followed:
Robinson’s usage lagged a bit near the goal line. He tied for just 23rd in carries inside the 10-yard line (17) and tied for 22nd in carries inside the 5 (10), losing work there to Tyler Allgeier.
But Robinson still finished second among RBs in expected PPR points per game; third in expected non-PPR points per game.
Robinson was one of the league’s best rushers by almost any metric last year. Among 51 RBs with 90+ carries, he ranked:
Robinson was just as dominant as a pass catcher. Among 40 RBs with 30+ targets, he finished:
The 2025 Falcons finished 14th in total yards but just 24th in points.
It was a run-leaning offense, ranking 21st in pass rate, 16th in neutral pass rate, and 26th in pass rate over expected.
Robinson ran behind a mediocre offensive line that finished ninth in PFF run-blocking grades but 30th in ESPN run-block win rate and 23rd in adjusted line yards.
Robinson’s fantasy production has climbed across each of his first three NFL seasons:
Robinson ranks third among RBs in PPR points per game over the last three seasons.
He also set new career highs in yards, yards after contact, and missed tackles forced per attempt last year.
Still just 24, Robinson sits smack dab in the middle of his prime.
Robinson has not missed a game through three NFL seasons. In fact, the only significant injury on his resume is a dislocated elbow his sophomore year at Texas (2021).
The Falcons swapped out Allgeier for Brian Robinson Jr. this offseason. Robinson got just $2.5 million on a one-year deal and looks like a downgrade. He trails Allgeier in:
Robinson offers a little more than Allgeier in the passing game, but he’s not a real threat to Bijan in that department. Brian has 73 catches through four NFL seasons, with nearly half of those coming in 2023.
In short, Bijan should be a workhorse for the Falcons again this season.
The Falcons will likely have a new QB under center, at least to open the season. Michael Penix Jr. is working back from his third torn ACL and isn’t expected back on the field until August. Kirk Cousins was released in March.
That leaves Tua Tagovailoa as the likely Week 1 starter. Tua had a couple of strong seasons in 2022 and 2023 but has disappointed the past two years.
On the plus side for Robinson, Tagovailoa sports a career 7.8-yard average target depth that’s sunk to 6.1 and 7.2 the last two seasons. He played a big part in De’Von Achane averaging 5.2 targets per game over those last two years and could be good news for Robinson’s target volume.
The Falcons return four of five starters from last year’s offensive line. Jawaan Taylor will take over for Elijah Wilkinson at RT after arriving in free agency. Taylor has started for the past seven seasons (four with Jacksonville, three with Kansas City) and should be a tangible upgrade.
This should again be a serviceable run-blocking offensive line in 2026.
Atlanta canned HC Raheem Morris, OC Zac Robinson, and the rest of the staff this offseason. HC Kevin Stefanski takes over, with Tommy Rees as his OC.
Stefanski spent the last six seasons as Browns HC, compiling a 45-56 record. His first four offenses ranked between 14th and 18th in yards before QB play sank the operation the last two years.
Cleveland generally leaned run under Stefanski. Here’s where the team ranked in neutral pass rate and pass rate over expected over the last six seasons:
Rees notably spent the past two years with Stefanski in Cleveland, including as OC last year. Rees took over play-calling from Stefanski in Week 10 last season and is expected to call plays this year.
Based on the history of this coaching staff and the Falcons’ personnel, expect this to be a run-leaning offense in 2026.
Robinson should continue to dominate touches in Atlanta’s backfield. And there’s a chance the team gets better play-calling and QB play this season.
Robinson clearly has the upside to lead all RBs in fantasy points.
QB play is the biggest concern for Robinson. If Tagovailoa doesn’t bounce back and Penix doesn’t take a step forward in year three, this could be a bottom-10 offense.
That could make Robinson more “solid RB1” than “fantasy league-winner.”
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Bijan Robinson Resets RB Market
Bijan Robinson Resets RB Market
Bijan Robinson has agreed to a three-year extension with the Falcons. According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, the contract carries a base value of $66.75 million, with a max value of $75 million. That's a range of $22.25 million per year to $25 million. That eclipses Saquon Barkley's previous high for average annual value among RBs at $20.6 million.
Bijan Robinson Sits Out Day 1 of Training Camp
Bijan Robinson Sits Out Day 1 of Training Camp
The Falcons held their first training camp practice on Wednesday, but star RB Bijan Robinson didn't participate. Robinson is likely seeking a long-term contract ahead of his fourth NFL season.
Falcons Retain Bijan Robinson for 2027 ... Is a New Contract Coming Soon?
Falcons Retain Bijan Robinson for 2027 ... Is a New Contract Coming Soon?
As expected, the Falcons have picked up RB Bijan Robinson’s fifth-year option. The move keeps him under team control through the 2027 season.
Falcons To Sign Brian Robinson Jr. to Replace Tyler Allgeier
Falcons To Sign Brian Robinson Jr. to Replace Tyler Allgeier
Former 49ers RB Brian Robinson Jr. is expected to sign with the Atlanta Falcons as a likely replacement for Tyler Allgeier, who signed with the Cardinals at the start of free agency. Robinson opened his NFL career with three straight 700+ rushing-yard seasons in Washington, peaking with 8 TDs in 2024. He was traded to the 49ers before the 2025 season. After spending a year backing up Christian McCaffrey, Robinson now projects as the No. 2 behind Bijan Robinson.
Falcons Land Kevin Stefanski As HC
Falcons Land Kevin Stefanski As HC
The Falcons are hiring Kevin Stefanski as their new HC. He's expected to retain DC Jeff Ulbrich and bring Tommy Rees with him from Cleveland to serve as OC, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Stefanski spent the past six seasons as Browns HC, compiling a 45-56 record. He went 37-30 with two playoff appearances over the first four years, the first of two coming with QB Baker Mayfield. Stefanski was in Minnesota for 14 seasons prior to Cleveland, serving as OC in his final year there. That 2019 Vikings team was quarterbacked by Kirk Cousins, who remains signed with the Falcons as of now. QB Michael Penix is also on the roster but is working back from ACL surgery that's expected to sideline him into August. QB is the big question for Atlanta heading into 2026. But Stefanski will be armed with a sturdy offensive line and a pair of high-end skill players in RB Bijan Robinson and WR Drake London.
See whether Bijan Robinson is available in your leagues.
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