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Stroud has regressed each of the past two seasons. He has promising receiving options, so a bounce-back is possible if he can recapture his rookie-year form. But a lack of rushing upside lowers the floor and ceiling. He's fine at a QB21 ADP.
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Stroud took a step back in 2025, finishing QB22 in fantasy points per game with just eight top-12 weekly finishes.
He threw for 3,041 yards (19th among QBs), 19 TDs (21st), and 8 INts, with a passer rating of 92.9 (31st). His completion percentage of 64.5% ranked 22nd.
Stroud ranked QB22 in expected fantasy points per game. He ranked 21st in pass attempts (400). Stroud typically targeted WR/TE over RBs with the Texans ranking eighth in WR target share (62.3%) and ninth in TE target share (23.8%). That means the passing game didn’t rely on easy checkdowns to RBs in the backfield, but more difficult passes to WRs and TEs.
Stroud's efficiency remains a real concern.
He ranked 28th in yards per attempt (7.2), 40th in average depth of target (8.5 yards), and 45th in expected points added (EPA) percentage (45.3%). His low EPA percentage means that 54.7% of Stroud’s plays didn’t positively impact the Texans to score.
Stroud’s PFF pass grade of 70.0 ranked 28th and his adjusted completion rate ranked 33rd. Both of those marks, along with his overall offensive grade (72.9, 34th), have declined over the last two seasons.
Stroud’s completion percentage (63.8%) was slightly ahead of his expected percentage (62.5%). That +0.8 completion percentage over expected ranked 17th among QBs.
Houston ranked eighth in pass attempts and 16th in pass rate (57.4%), operating as a relatively balanced offense. The Texans ran 64.0 plays per game (Sixth), giving Stroud a reasonable number of opportunities.
Houston ranked 19th in neutral pass rate (54.5%), and 20th in pass rate over expected (-4.29%) in 2025.
Houston threw more often under Bobby Slowik in 2023-24. Nick Caley's 2025 offense actually had the lower neutral pass rate (54.5%).
Plays | Pass Rate | Neutral Pass Rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
2023 (Slowik) | 63.7 | 59.9% | 56.6% |
2024 (Slowik) | 62.2 | 60.5% | 57.4% |
2025 (Caley) | 64.0 | 57.4% | 54.5% |
The offensive line only made things harder. Houston ranked 22nd in PFF pass-block grade and 30th in ESPN pass-block win rate, a tough setup for any QB to overcome.aDO
Stroud delivered a remarkable rookie year but has declined since:
Fantasy points per game | PFF Pass Grade | Adjusted Completion % | aDOT | |
2023 | QB16 | 79.6 (14th) | 73.0% (21st) | 9.4 (first) |
2024 | QB20 | 77.6 (13th) | 72.3% (28th) | 8.6 (11th) |
2025 | QB22 | 70.0 (17th) | 71.4% (26th) | 8.5 (26th) |
Stroud's fantasy output and underlying metrics point to a troubling career slide. Even with a new OC in 2025, he kept trending the wrong way.
Stroud suffered a concussion in Week 9 and missed three weeks. He returned to finish the season, including both playoff games.
The pass-catching corps is this offense's strength, led by WR Nico Collins. He finished with 1,117 receiving yards (eighth) and 121 targets (14th), plus a 31.0% air yards share (14th) and the ninth-best yards per route run among WRs with 40+ targets.
Jayden Higgins also flashed as a rookie, ranking third in PFF receiving grade among rookie WRs with 30+ targets and scoring 6 TDs. Jaylin Noel tallied the fourth-best YPRR among rookie WRs, though he never topped a 50% route rate in a game.
TE Dalton Schultz gives Stroud a reliable option after posting 82 catches (third), 108 targets (third), and 836 yards (seventh) in 2025. His 80.6% catch rate ranked sixth among TEs with 40+ targets.
Houston acquired RB David Montgomery to lead the backfield. Woody Marks returns as a No. 2 option.
The O-line remains a concern. The Texans did reshuffle it with LG Wyatt Teller, RT Braden Smith, and first-round pick C Keylan Rutledge expected to start.
The O-line additions don’t inspire confidence, with both Teller and Smith ranking in the low end of starters last season.. Teller ranked 48th among 103 Guards with 100+ snaps last season in PFF blocking grade while Smith ranked 56th among 106 Tackles. Rutledge offers upside, ranking 15th among 439 FBS Guards last season.
Caley's first season as OC produced a more conservative offense, with both pass rate (57.4%) and neutral pass rate (54.5%) slightly falling from Bobby Slowik's previous seasons.
The neutral pass rate actually decreased In the 13 full games that Stroud played, dropping to 52.5%.
The downfield passing game has varied over the past four years looking at average depth of target:
The depth of targets were similar to 2024, though not quite at Stroud's 2023 rookie-year level. Even so, the Texans have stayed in the league's top half in aDOT over the past three years, a shift that followed the arrivals of Stroud and Nico Collins.
This lines up with the team’s target shares from last year with WRs earning 62.3% (eighth) and TEs earning 23.8% (ninth). RBs got the short end of the share at 13.9% (29th).
The team could also lean on the run more after trading OL Juice Scruggs plus a fourth- and seventh-round pick for David Montgomery. Montgomery gives a lead back who can handle more carries. The backfield certainly grew stronger this year with Montgomery and second-year Woody Marks compared to Nick Chubb and rookie Marks last season.
The Texans offense in Caley’s second year will likely look similar to 2025. A balanced scheme to take pressure off of Stroud and the O-line. The scheme often utilized deeper routes for Collins with short-to-intermediate dump-offs to Dalton Schultz if the O-line breaks down.
One change that could help Stroud’s fantasy season would be to regain trust from the coaching staff. That could lead to throwing more in neutral situations, helping his volume to bounce back to 2023 levels (273.9 yards per game in 2023 vs. 217.2 in 2025). Part of that may be with improved O-line play increasing Stroud’s time to throw back near 3.04 seconds per play like he had in 2023 (2.82 in 2025).
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Texans Pick Up C.J. Stroud’s Fifth-Year Option
Texans Pick Up C.J. Stroud’s Fifth-Year Option
The Texans have picked up the fifth-year club option on QB C.J. Stroud, keeping him signed through the 2027 season, per beat writer Aaron Wilson. Stroud will now make $25.9 million fully guaranteed in 2027. Houston also picked up the fifth-year option on DE Will Anderson, who was selected immediately after Stroud in the 2023 NFL Draft.
C.J. Stroud Will Start Week 13
C.J. Stroud Will Start Week 13
Texans QB C.J. Stroud (concussion) will start Sunday’s game vs. the Colts, HC Demeco Ryans confirmed on Friday. Stroud was a full participant in practice all week. He ranked 15th among QBs in fantasy points per game through Week 8 and gets an improved Indianapolis pass defense that added CB Sauce Gardner and got CB Charvarius Ward back last week. Stroud checks in 15th in the Week 13 QB rankings.
C.J. Stroud A Full-Go Wednesday
C.J. Stroud A Full-Go Wednesday
Texans QB C.J. Stroud (concussion) put in a full practice on Wednesday. Barring a setback, he'll start this weekend's game vs. the Colts. Indianapolis ranks 21st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs but is a tougher matchup after adding CB Sauce Gardner and getting CB Charvarius Ward back. With Houston implied for just 20.25 points, Stroud is only in play in 2-QB and superflex leagues.
C.J. Stroud Out For Week 12, Expected Back For Week 13
C.J. Stroud Out For Week 12, Expected Back For Week 13
Texans QB C.J. Stroud (concussion) is out for Thursday night's game vs. the Bills, HC Demeco Ryans said. Stroud returned to a limited practice on Tuesday and is expected back for Week 13's game against the Colts. But QB Davis Mills will make his third straight start on Thursday. He's gone 2-0 over the last two, completing 61.6% of his passes at 6.6 yards per attempt. Mills remains just a lower-end QB2 -- but he's certainly not bad news for WR Nico Collins, who has posted 7-136-0 and 9-92-1 lines over the last two games.
C.J. Stroud "Uncertain" For Week 12
C.J. Stroud "Uncertain" For Week 12
Texans QB C.J. Stroud (concussion) is "uncertain" for Thursday night's game vs. the Bills, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. Stroud remained sidelined in practice all week, still experiencing concussion symptoms, and was ruled out for today's game on Thursday. We'll track his progress this coming week but are tentatively expecting QB Davis Mills to start against Buffalo.
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