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C.J. Stroud - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsC.J. Stroud's Basic Stats

C.J. Stroud
ADP: 4.9
Bye: 14
Experience: 1
Age: 22.7
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 218
40 Time: 4.79

C.J. Stroud's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
286.7 2.07 0.6 10.1 20.5
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
226.5 1.3 0.7 11 14.8

C.J. Stroud's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#4 Quarterback

327.7 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
4.9 384/580.8 4587.2 33.12 9.6 38.4 161.6 3.2

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsC.J. Stroud's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

After an incredible rookie season, the Texans are going all-in on rookie contract Stroud with upgrades to the offense and defense.

Trading for Stefon Diggs has pushed Stroud up draft boards as a top-7 QB option with arguably the best set of weapons in the NFL.

With an exceptional young OC in Bobby Slowik staying for his second year, there is major upside for Stroud due to his cerebral ability. Even without much rushing upside, he’s a good bet for at least mid-range QB1 production this year.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Stroud finished as the QB12 in total fantasy points (254.5) and QB15 in points per game (15.9).
  • Stroud’s 3,844 passing yards ranked ninth among QBs. His 21 passing TDs ranked 13th.
  • He missed two games (Week 15-16) due to a concussion suffered in Week 14.
  • Stroud had six top-12 finishes. He had only one QB25 or worse finish.
  • Stroud’s per-game averages were excellent for a rookie:
    • 63.9% completion rate
    • 273.9 yards
    • 1.53 TDs
    • 0.33 INTs
    • 8.7 adjusted yards per pass attempt
  • Among the 45 QBs with 135+ dropbacks, Stroud ranked:
    • 14th in Pro Football Focus passing grade (79.4)
    • 21st in Big Time Throw percentage (4.3%)
    • 27th in Turnover Worthy Play percentage (2.9%)
    • 10th in Time to Throw (2.93 seconds)
    • 16th in Completion Percentage Above Expectation (+0.9%)
  • Stroud played behind an average O-line that ranked 19th in Pro Football Focus' pass-blocking grades.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Stroud enters his second season with the Texans under HC DeMeco Ryans and OC Bobby Slowik.
  • The Texans continued investing in the offense around Stroud by adding:
    • WR Stefon Diggs (trade)
    • RB Joe Mixon (FA)
    • OT Blake Fisher (2nd Round)
    • TE Cade Stover (4th Round)
  • The Texans are expected to perform similarly to last season. They have the highest win total in the AFC South at 9.5 wins on most sportsbooks.
  • They also have the eighth-highest odds to win the Super Bowl at +1600 on most sportsbooks, best in the division.
  • Stroud enters his second season at 22 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average QB with Stroud’s career will produce at 91% of peak value at age-22.

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Nico Collins, WR HOU

10:02pm EDT 5/28/24

Nico Collins gets three-year extension

The Texans and WR Nico Collins agreed to a three-year, $72.5 million extension with $52 million guaranteed, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero. The deal keeps Collins in Houston through the 2027 season. His $24.2 million average annual salary ranks seventh among WRs, in between DeVonta Smith and D.K. Metcalf.

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The Texans selected Ohio State TE Cade Stover in Round 4 of the NFL Draft. A five-year college player, Stover began his stint in Columbus as a LB. He soon transitioned to TE and held a starting role from 2022-2023. Modest production followed, largely because of the Buckeyes’ strong WR corps. In ‘22, Stover ranked third on the team in catches (36), fourth in yards (406), and fourth in TDs (5). 2023 turned up similar production, although his yards per catch jumped from 11.3 to 14.0. His yards per route run also rose from 1.32 to 2.04. The 2023 figure ranked fourth among 32 TEs with 50+ targets, and it came alongside a sharp dip in QB play post-C.J. Stroud. On tape, Stover shows a nasty demeanor – hardly a surprise given his defensive background. Reliable hands and plus athleticism also supply hope that he can develop into an NFL starter. At the Combine, he compiled a rock solid 8.22 Relative Athletic Score, boosted by a 4.65 forty time and a 1.61 ten-yard split. In Houston, Stover joins a TE room led by Dalton Schultz, who’s signed through the 2026 season. But getting to play with QB C.J. Stroud certainly adds to Stover’s dynasty appeal.

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According to multiple reports, the Bills are sending WR Stefon Diggs to the Texans. Buffalo is also sending a 2024 sixth-round pick and 2025 fifth-rounder to Houston, while getting back only a second-round pick in 2025. Diggs' production fell off late last season after the Bills switched offensive coordinators. Now 30 and in a new offense, Diggs will have to show he's not in decline. He'll add the challenge of splitting targets with Houston's emergent young wideouts. Nico Collins (seventh) and Tank Dell (12th) both ranked among the top 12 WRs in PPR points per game last season, with rookie QB C.J. Stroud. The Diggs addition obviously lowers the target-share ceiling for all three wideouts. We'll also have to see exactly how Houston plans to deploy them. Diggs spent 35.7% of his pass snaps in the slot last year; 34.2% the year before. He topped 30% in that category for three of his four Buffalo seasons, surpassed only by his 2016 sophomore season (62.9%). Collins spent 20.1% of his time in the slot last year; Dell 28.7%. We'd bet on all three moving around the formation some. But Diggs could wind up primarily replacing Robert Woods (55.5% slot) and Noah Brown (39.3%). The trio gives Stroud one of the league's best WR groups and boosts his fantasy upside. The QB already sat sixth at the position in Underdog Fantasy ADP, though. That adds risk to Stroud as a draft target and gives him little room to move up. QB Josh Allen, meanwhile, has lost his top two wideouts (Gabe Davis the other) while adding only WR Curtis Samuel this offseason. The dearth of remaining talent adds risk to his fantasy outlook, though you shouldn't expect the high-level rusher to move significantly down our rankings. As for other affected players: Diggs' departure leaves target share available for TE Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir. His arrival in Houston makes life tougher for TE Dalton Schultz. He already sat just 13th among TEs in best ball ADP, though, and will likely fall further following this trade. Be sure to check our rankings for your format to see all the effects of this high-impact deal.

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Bobby Slowik is getting a "significant raise" to remain the Texans' OC, according to insider Albert Breer. Slowik drew significant HC interest after leading Houston to top-13 finishes in both total yards and points this past year. His return is good news for QB C.J. Stroud and the Texans offense, although we'd like to see Slowik lean further toward the pass in 2024. Last year's Texans ranked 16th in neutral pass rate and 19th in Pass Rate Over Expected.

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Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

C.J. Stroud, QB HOU
Dynasty MVP 291.7
Position Rank #7 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
906
1,486
2,762
Dynasty Write-up
In college, Stroud certainly benefited from a cast of all-star WRs: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Emeka Egbuka. Stroud showed pin-point accuracy on tape, however, and that's quickly carried over to the pro game. Only 22, his arrow is pointing straight up -- even more so with the arrival of Stefon Diggs.
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