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C.J. Stroud - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsC.J. Stroud's Basic Stats

C.J. Stroud
ADP: 18.5
Bye: 7
Experience: 0 Yr(s)
Age: 21.9
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 218

C.J. Stroud's Weekly Outlook

Week 4 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
247.7 1.3 0.8 12.8 15.6
Weekly Writeup
Stroud’s posted fantasy finishes of QB22, QB6, and QB6. He’s boosted by plus volume (40.3 attempts per game), but developments from guys like Nico Collins and Tank Dell help the rookie settle in as a QB2.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
239.6 1.5 0.9 10.4 15.7

C.J. Stroud's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#20 Quarterback

251.9 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
18.5 321.3/514 3833 23.2 14 44 166 3.8

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsC.J. Stroud's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line:

You won’t be looking at Stroud as a potential 2023 fantasy starter, unless you play in an impressively deep league. Even for best ball and superflex purposes, he’ll make for a high-risk QB2.

Stroud will not only need to bring his elite accuracy to the pros. He’ll also need to turn his above-average speed (4.74-second 40 time at pro day) into NFL rushing production. And the rookie’s passing numbers will rely on at least solid performance from a lackluster crew of pass catchers.

Stroud sports enough upside to be attractive in dynasty leagues and a quality QB3 for superflex formats. Just don’t expect too much right away.

What We Learned Last Year:
  • Stroud closed a tremendous two-year starting turn at Ohio State with big numbers. Despite losing WRs Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave to the NFL Draft, he ranked top 15 nationally in:
    • Passing yards
    • TDs
    • TD rate
    • INT rate
    • Yards per attempt
    • Pro Football Focus passing grade
  • Stroud racked up 85 TDs vs. just 12 INTs over his two years at the OSU helm. He completed 69.3% of his passes and averaged a strong 9.8 yards per attempt.
  • According to Pro Football Focus, Stroud leads the nation over the past two years with a 26.7% rate of “perfectly thrown passes.”
  • Stroud didn’t run much in college but said leading up to the draft, “I feel like I should have.”
What to Expect in 2023:
  • Most QBs get an upgrade in WR talent going from college to the pros. Stroud will not. His first starting season included Wilson, Olave, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Even with the first two gone and JSN (hamstring) basically out, 2022 still found Stroud throwing to expected first-round NFL picks Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka.
  • The Texans’ 2023 WR depth chart features:
    • Nico Collins
    • Robert Woods (now 31)
    • John Metchie III (coming off a year missed for leukemia treatment)
    • rookies Tank Dell (Round 3) and Xavier Hutchinson (Round 6)
  • Houston also signed TE Dalton Schultz to a one-year deal with $6 million guaranteed.
  • The Texans sport a first-time HC (Demeco Ryans) and first-time OC (Bobby Slowik). Each spent multiple years working for Niners HC Kyle Shanahan.
  • Slowik has spent all nine of his NFL coaching seasons on a Shanahan staff:
    • six with Kyle’s 49ers
    • three under Mike Shanahan (with Kyle as OC) in Washington
  • We’ll see about Slowik’s system, but it seems fair to expect a heavy Shanahan influence.
  • That’s been a run-friendly scheme. Over their six shared years in San Francisco, the 49ers averaged 43.8% run and 56.2% pass. But it predictably changed by team performance.
    • Average for three winning seasons: 48.3% run, 51.7% pass
    • Average for three losing seasons: 40.9% run, 59.1% pass
  • Houston had a lot of holes to fill from last year’s roster. The Texans should certainly be better in 2023. But how much better is tough to say. The early Vegas lines have only the Cardinals projected for fewer wins. So expect a pass rate closer to 60% than to 50%.
  • That would be a good thing for Stroud’s fantasy numbers.

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C.J. Stroud, QB HOU

5:22pm EDT 9/24/23

C.J. Stroud rides again

Texans QB C.J. Stroud tallied 20 completions on 30 attempts for 280 and 2 TDs in Week 3’s surprise victory over the Jaguars. The rookie signal-caller is starting to heat up, and it seems fairly evident that the Houston offense is committed to throwing the ball. This is a team that held a lead throughout the entire contest and still recorded 30 pass attempts. At this rate of volume, Stroud may be sneaking his way up the list for streaming considerations in 1QB leagues. We’ll see what this bunch can accomplish next week in a tough test against the Steelers.

View all C.J. Stroud Shark Bites »

Texans QB C.J. Stroud tallied 30 completions on 47 attempts for 384 and 2 TDs in Week 2’s loss vs. the Colts. The rookie also ran the ball 3 times with only 1 rushing yard. Stroud has now thrown the ball at least 40 times in each of the first two games of 2023. Considering how often Houston will likely be playing from behind, he should be a useful asset in 2QB or superflex leagues as time goes along. We’re still a ways away from trusting Stroud in a 1QB format, though his performance on Sunday certainly helped his case. Next week, he and the Texans will travel to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars.

View all C.J. Stroud Shark Bites »

Texans QB C.J. Stroud (shoulder) is active for today’s game vs. the Colts. He dealt with right-shoulder soreness late in the week, adding risk to his Week 2 fantasy profile. Stroud is only a low-end option in superflex leagues.

View all C.J. Stroud Shark Bites »

Texans QB C.J. Stroud (shoulder) is expected to play vs. the Colts today, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Stroud was added to the injury report and limited in practice on Friday with a sore right shoulder. He's no better than a low-end QB2 in Week 2 fantasy lineups, but his availability is good news for Houston's offense.

View all C.J. Stroud Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

C.J. Stroud, QB HOU
Dynasty MVP 232.8
Position Rank #21 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
685
1,169
2,359
Dynasty Write-up
In college, Stroud certainly benefited from a cast of all-star WRs: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Emeka Egbuka. Stroud shows pin-point accuracy on tape, however, and there could be untapped rushing upside here. Stroud could quickly climb the ranks if Houston's young supporting cast shows signs of life.
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