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Davis Mills - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsDavis Mills's Basic Stats

Davis Mills
ADP: 16.7
Bye: 6
Experience: 1 Yr(s)
Age: 23.7
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 225
40 Time: 4.87
SPARQx (Rank): 89.50 (48%)
Burst Score (Rank): 111.00 (52%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.35 (65%)

Davis Mills's 2022 Projections & Outlook


#41 Quarterback

233.9 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
16.7 346.1/545 3842.3 22.3 12.5 27 67.5 2.5

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsDavis Mills's Preseason Player Analysis

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What You Need to Know:

  • Mills, a former top recruit, started only 11 games at Stanford.
  • At 6’4, 217 pounds, he showed an ability to make all of the throws. His mobility is close to non-existent, though. He has a history of issues with his left knee.
  • A 2021 Round 3 pick, Mills saw the field with Deshaun Watson sitting out and fill-in Tyrod Taylor suffering an early-season injury.
  • Mills started from Weeks 3-8 but was largely overmatched.
  • A struggling Taylor was benched from Week 14 on. Mills stepped in with a decent 74.6% adjusted completion rate over the final 5 games. That ranked 19th among 31 QBs with 350+ dropbacks.
  • Overall, Mills finished as a QB1 4 times, adding a QB13 finish.
  • Houston passed on adding a rookie QB in the draft. Mills will be the guy for new HC Lovie Smith.
  • Smith praised Mills over the offseason, saying he believes Mills will be an “excellent” QB. “Having a year, he and [offensive coordinator] Pep Hamilton getting on the same page with our offense, and him being in a role from the start, that’s different also. But that’s what you do. You have a chance for him to establish himself as one of our primary leaders each day.”
  • The Texans added John Metchie in the draft. Coming off a December ACL tear, he’s unlikely to be an early-season factor.
  • Brandin Cooks returns following his 6th 1,000-yard season over the past 7 years. Nico Collins brings some sneaky breakout appeal as a 2nd-year Round 3 pick.
  • The TE spot doesn’t have any established presence, but 2nd-year man Brevin Jordan brings a pass-first skill set and ended 2021 strong.
  • Houston’s O-line ranked just 23rd in PFF’s pass-blocking grade last year.
  • A now-healthy Laremy Tunsil and a couple of new arrivals — including Round 1 OG Kenyon Green — signals likely improvement.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

A Round 3 rookie, Mills was thrown into the fire early on. He flopped — predictably — on an offense that didn’t provide much support.

Given another chance late in the season, though, Mills flashed starter-quality ability.

But that was as a passer. Mills posted only 44 rushing yards across 13 total appearances.

That lack of rushing upside — and a still largely unproven supporting cast — keeps the young passer buried in the ranks.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Davis Mills, QB HOU

9:00pm EDT 4/11/22

HC believes in QB

Texans HC Lovie Smith says he's a fan of QB Davis Mills. "If you look at all of my comments about Davis, I am a believer in him and what he's going to do," Smith said Monday, according to "If you just go back and look at the plays that he made, throwing the ball downfield last year, so many good things that he did, and that's as a rookie." Smith also sounds confident in Mills leading the 2022 offense. "The improvement that you see from year one to year two is normally a big improvement, and that's what we're gonna get from him." Words don't necessarily mean commitment, of course. And we'll see whether Houston adds a QB at any stage of the upcoming NFL Draft. But combine Smith's comments with what had to be considered an impressive debut for a 3rd-round pick in a bad offense, and we're betting Mills leads Houston's offense for at least the coming season. He's available very late in early fantasy football drafts and not highly rated in dynasty right now.

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Lovie Smith has been named Texans HC. He has 11 seasons of NFL HC experience -- 9 with the Bears, 2 with the Bucs -- compiling an 89-87 record. Smith left the NFL from 2016 to 2020 to coach Illinois, where he went 17-39. He returned to the pros this past year to serve as Texans DC. Houston is expected to promote passing-game coordinator Pep Hamilton to OC, according to NFL Network's Mike Garafolo.

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The Texans fired HC David Culley and OC Tim Kelly. These guys were set up to fail with an expansion-level roster and might have actually overachieved by winning 4 games this season. GM Nick Caserio is expected to tap into the Patriots pipeline for his next HC.

View all Davis Mills Shark Bites »

Texans HC David Culley named QB Davis Mills his starter for the rest of the season. "He gives us the best chance to win," Culley said, suggesting that QB Tyrod Taylor's wrist injury didn't factor into this decision. Taylor has struggled lately -- but Mills managed just 6.6 yards per attempt with 6 TDs vs. 7 INTs in 6 starts earlier this season. WR Brandin Cooks at least averaged 8.2 targets, 6.2 catches and 62.5 yards in those Mills starts. Cooks remains the only Texan worth using in fantasy lineups.

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Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Davis Mills, QB HOU
Dynasty MVP 197.4
Position Rank #36 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
Dynasty Write-up
Mills beat expectations as a Round 3 rookie -- especially considering the poor environment in Houston. The Texans showed some confidence in the Stanford product by not taking a QB in the 2022 draft. Next year, however, will bring a larger group of high upside, draft-eligible passers (Bryce Young, CJ Stroud and a host of others). Mills, while promising, could face starting competition in 2023.

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