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Davis Mills - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Davis Mills
HOU

QB HOU

#44 Quarterback

44 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 10
Experience: 0 Yr(s)
Age: N/A
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 225
40 Time: 4.82

Weekly Outlook

Week 20 Projections

This player does not have a weekly prediction

Rest Of Way Outlook

Week 8
The final stat line for Mills is as misleading as anyone could imagine, as he threw for over 300 yards and 2 TDs. With the Rams racing out to a 38-0 lead in the 3rd quarter, their coaching staff felt compelled to take the defensive starters out of the game for the entire 4th quarter. As a result, Mills led a furious rally in the last 15 minutes that put 22 points on the board that did nothing but make the game look closer than it actually was.

Aside from this garbage-time extravaganza, Mills has failed to throw a TD pass in 3 of his last 5 starts. However, the two games in which he’s had multiple TDs, he also threw for 300 yards, so he’s shown that he’s capable of taking advantage of favorable circumstances to post good fantasy numbers on occasion. But overall, he hasn’t been very good when facing aggressive defenses. It appears that Tyrod Taylor may be back next week, which will likely move Mills back to a reserve role.
Week 6
After a strong performance vs. the Patriots in week 5, Davis Mills looked like a rookie again in Week 6. Mills completed just 29 of 43 passes for 243 yards and 2 INTs.

Mills wasn’t as aggressive, attempting only 2 passes of 20 or more yards. However, even with the down performance, Mills has been better than we would have thought.

The question that looms is will Tyrod Taylor get his starting job back? The offense would likely be better with Taylor, but with the Texans now 1-5 they might stick with the rookie the rest of season. This will be a situation to monitor as players such as Brandin Cooks and Mark Ingram would get a solid boost in fantasy value if Taylor gets his starting spot back.
Week 5
There were a lot of surprises in Week 5. Mills' performance might have been the biggest.

He chucked for 312 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INTs on 21-of-29 passing. That’s a 72% completion rate and 10.8 yards per attempt. Against a strong Patriots pass defense. And a HC in Bill Belichick who usually dominates rookie QBs.

Mills, of course, entered this game with 255 yards and 1 TD TOTAL across his first 2 starts. He should still be nowhere near your fantasy lineup. But we’ll see if he can build on this performance and perhaps keep Houston’s starting job even when QB Tyrod Taylor is ready to return from his hamstring injury.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Mills was the #1 QB in the 2017 recruiting class, ahead of Tua Tagovailoa.
  • He suffered a left knee injury prior to his senior year of high school and dealt with multiple setbacks throughout his time at Stanford.
  • Mills made just 11 starts across his 4 years on campus. He left school with a career 65.5% completion rate, 7.9 yards-per-attempt average and 18-to-8 TD:INT ratio.
  • Here’s part of The Athletic’s Dane Brugler’s scouting report on Mills: “A loose, well-built passer, Mills shows the ability to scan, operate from various platforms and throw with touch/anticipation. He is one of the best middle-of-the-field passers in the draft, but needs time to grow and eliminate the “what are you doing?” plays from his tape.
  • Pro Football Focus says Mills has “NFL-caliber arm strength” and the “ability to operate quickly within an offense” but adds that “there's no real high end to his game.”
  • The Texans made Mills the 67th overall pick and 8th QB off the board in this year’s draft.
  • QB Deshaun Watson’s future with the team is on shaky ground. He requested a trade in January and is likely looking at a suspension after 22 sexual assault claims were filed against him in March.
  • Watson’s absence would leave Mills and veteran Tyrod Taylor, who signed a 1-year, $5.5 million contract in free agency, to battle for the starting job.
  • Whoever is under center will be working with a shaky pass-catching corps after the Texans lost WR Will Fuller in free agency. Houston’s top 5 WRs figure to be Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb, Nico Collins, Keke Coutee and Chris Conley. Jordan Akins looks like the top TE.
  • The Texans hired David Culley as their new HC this offseason. Culley retained OC Tim Kelly, though, so the offensive scheme shouldn’t change much.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Deshaun Watson’s absence -- due to suspension and/or a trade -- would leave Mills and Tyrod Taylor to battle for the starting job. Taylor’s experience might give him the leg up to open the season, but the Texans will likely want to see Mills at some point this season.

That doesn’t mean he’ll be a fantasy option, though. Mills brings very little rushing ability and would be working with 1 of the weaker pass-catching corps in the NFL. Don’t bother with him in redraft leagues.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

The Texans fired HC David Culley and OC Tim Kelly. These guys were set up to fail with an expansion-level roster and might have actually overachieved by winning 4 games this season. GM Nick Caserio is expected to tap into the Patriots pipeline for his next HC.

View all Davis Mills Shark Bites »

Texans HC David Culley named QB Davis Mills his starter for the rest of the season. "He gives us the best chance to win," Culley said, suggesting that QB Tyrod Taylor's wrist injury didn't factor into this decision. Taylor has struggled lately -- but Mills managed just 6.6 yards per attempt with 6 TDs vs. 7 INTs in 6 starts earlier this season. WR Brandin Cooks at least averaged 8.2 targets, 6.2 catches and 62.5 yards in those Mills starts. Cooks remains the only Texan worth using in fantasy lineups.

View all Davis Mills Shark Bites »

Texans QB Davis Mills will get another start against the Rams on Sunday. QB Tyrod Taylor (hamstring) returned to practice this week but will miss at least 1 more game. "We just don't feel Tyrod is ready right now," HC David Culley said Friday. Taylor figures to return for Week 9.

View all Davis Mills Shark Bites »

The Texans selected Stanford QB Davis Mills with the 67th overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft. A 2-year college starter, Mills posted a 65.8% completion rate, 8.0 yards per attempt and 18 TDs vs. 8 INTs. He was the #1 QB in the 2017 recruiting class (ahead of Tua Tagovailoa), so there's obviously ability here. But Mills is largely unproven. He's also suffered multiple left knee injuries, which teams were reportedly concerned about. Houston's QB situation, of course, is up in the air with Deshaun Watson's legal troubles. Mills joins Tyrod Taylor as QB depth for the Texans.

View all Davis Mills Shark Bites »

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