Bottom Line

Otton was a fine player last year, which qualified as impressive for a Day 3 rookie at TE.

But this year’s offense figures to lose both passing volume and efficiency. And both could drop precipitously.

Otton’s OK as a late TE3 for best ball rosters but doesn’t look interesting beyond that.

What We Learned Last Year

• Otton jumped immediately into a Bucs offense needy at TE and grew his role as the season wore on.
• He played 48% and 49% of offensive snaps the first two weeks. After sitting out Week 3, the fourth-round rookie topped 50% playing time every week until a meaningless finale that saw starters get pulled early.
• For the season, only five TEs ran more pass routes than Otton. That’s impressive involvement for a Day 3 rookie. Of course, a big part of that was also the Bucs tying the Chargers for the league lead with 778 dropbacks. Only four QBs reached 700 dropbacks for the season, with Tom Brady at 761 trailing Justin Herbert by 3, leading No. 3 Patrick Mahomes by 39, and fifth-place Joe Burrow reaching 676.
• Otton’s performance wasn’t as impressive as his level of involvement. Among 43 TEs who saw 30+ targets, he ranked:
  • 39th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
  • T-40th in yards per route
  • T-24th in yards after catch per reception
  • 36th in average depth of target
  • 28th in passer rating on balls thrown his way
    • His 94.1 there did beat WR teammate Mike Evans, at least.
• Otton tied for the 12th-highest rate of slot routes among that TE group. We’ll see whether that type of usage continues under a new coordinator.

What to Expect in 2023

• This year’s offense promises to be far less pass-heavy. The Buccaneers passed at the league’s highest rate each of the past two years, leading the NFL in pass attempts each time.
• Now they go from Tom Brady to either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask. One is coming off his worst NFL campaign, which saw one team trade him away, another release him, and a third let him walk in free agency. (To be fair, on that last one: He was looking for a starting opportunity, which the Rams didn’t offer.) Trask has attempted nine regular-season passes over two years since being selected at the end of Round 2.
• Otton faces little competition at his position, at least.
  • Draft classmate Ko Kieft drew just 10 targets as a rookie and looks like more of a blocker.
  • Rookie Payne Durham lasted until Round 5 of the draft.
  • The other three TEs on the roster heading into training camp have a combined four NFL receptions (all by Dominique Dafney).
• Durham will bear watching in camp. He matches Otton in size and posted strong college production. He’s slow for the position, though.
• The Buccaneers aren’t expected to be very good. Only Arizona holds a lower projected win total (4.5) by Vegas numbers than Tampa’s 6.5. Losing would help the passing volume, but a bad offense won’t be good for Otton’s scoring opportunities.