J.J. McCarthy - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

QB is too deep for you to get excited about McCarthy in 1-QB fantasy formats. But he looks like an upside player in an upside situation for the long term. Pairing McCarthy with Sam Darnold later in a superflex draft could deliver surprising points. If going for McCarthy alone, you should treat him as a fantasy reserve at draft time.

What We Learned Last Year

• Jim Harbaugh’s offenses really don’t like to run the football.
• Despite starting a QB that would go 11th overall in the NFL Draft plus third-round pick Roman Wilson and seventh-rounder Cornelius Johnson at WR, Michigan ranked 120th nationally in pass attempts per game.
  • That marked declines even from their 113th- and 95th-place finishes the previous two years.
• This isn’t a knock on McCarthy. Rather, it’s an explanation for his just-OK college stats. McCarthy spent two years starting for a run-heavy play-caller, which limited the totals. But he was impressively efficient.
• McCarthy averaged 8.7 yards per pass attempt for his career, with more than four times as many TDs (49) as INTs (11).
• McCarthy ranked 12th last year in Pro Football Focus passing grade, among 178 FBS QBs who dropped back at least 100 times.
  • He also ranked fifth in adjusted completion rate and seventh in passer rating.
• The run-heavy offense and overall strength of his team also limited McCarthy’s rushing opportunities. But he can run.
  • He averaged 6 yards per carry for his college career, when you strip away yards lost on sacks, according to PFF.
  • McCarthy skipped the 40 at the Combine but reportedly timed at 4.48 seconds ahead of the 2023 season. You could penalize that quite a bit for being friendly, homefield timing and still get a well-above-average result for the position.
  • He did clock a 91st-percentile 3-cone drill at the Combine, and a 72nd-percentile short shuttle.

What to Expect in 2024

• HC Kevin O’Connell has said they view McCarthy as the “quarterback of the future.” That’s pretty clear when you draft the position 11th overall, but that declaration also came at a time in the year where coaches tend to emphasize competition over expected roles.
• O’Connell also said, coming out of spring minicamp, that Sam Darnold will d at the start of training camp. That’s also not surprising.
  • The Vikings signed Darnold to a one-year, $10 million deal after parting ways with Kirk Cousins. That’s no longer even guaranteed starter money for one season. But it’s potential “bridge” QB money more than a straight backup rate.
  • It says they believe Darnold can be good enough at least until McCarthy is ready. And it clearly says the team considers him an upgrade over last year’s Joshua Dobbs-Nick Mullens-Jaren Hall fill-in combo.
• McCarthy will compete with Darnold through the summer, but it shouldn’t shock you if Darnold lines up behind center in Week 1. It also shouldn’t shock you if McCarthy reaches the field by midseason.
  • Since 2002, the average first start for a first-round QB has come in Game 6.8 (so about Week 7).
  • The median first start for that group, though, has come in Week 4.
  • Every first-round QB to enter the league since 2020 has started a game by Week 9 of his rookie year. Yes, even including Jordan Love.
    • Sure, in his case it was a one-week injury fill-in. But Kenny Pickett also took over in Pittsburgh two years ago after a Mitchell Trubisky injury, and then he kept the job (for too long).
    • Darnold giving way because of injury would probably play a lot closer to Trubisky than to Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay.
• Whenever McCarthy does take the field, he’ll benefit from having one of the league’s best WR duos. Justin Jefferson would make that true with many partners. But Jordan Addison also enjoyed an encouraging debut.
• TE T.J. Hockenson is a big 2024 question mark after tearing two knee ligaments in Week 16 last year. But Minnesota upgraded the backfield – especially the receiving – by signing Aaron Jones.
• McCarthy should also get a friendly pass rate for the first time in recent memory. Over O’Connell’s two seasons at the helm, the Vikings have ranked seventh in neutral-situation pass rate, according to RBSDM.com.
  • Even after Cousins went down last year, Minnesota still ranked 11th from Week 9 on – a stretch that included Jefferson missing four games and playing a limited role in another.
• McCarthy’s mobility helps both his fantasy floor and ceiling.